-Israel-UAE axis, Turkey and some other global actors have sided with the Presidential Council of Libya and the Government of National Accord by staying true to the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) and the Rome Conference against the attack of warlord Khalifa Haftar on Tripoli.
Why did the House of Representatives approve the UN’s roadmap? By approving Salamé’s roadmap with a decision in November, the HoR made a game-changing move that undermines Khalifa Haftar in Libya.
In 2019, the coup attempt by Khalifa Haftar, the leader of the eastern militia forces, against the capital Tripoli and the events that followed, led to the political rivalry between Ankara and Cairo over Libya to break out.
In 2019, the interested states were supportive of either Khalifa Haftar or the Government of National Accord (GNA) of Tripoli, while the defeat of Haftar's army changed third parties’ foreign policies giving them leverage over private enterprises by virtue of the former having a share in business opportunities.
The Saleh-Bashagha coalition aims at dismantling the Dbeibah-led GNU and replacing it with the Bashagha-led Government of National Stability (GNS), which would be heavily under the influence of the “kingmaker” of the coalition—Khalifa Haftar.
Following candidacies of controversial figures like Saif al-Islam Gaddafi and warlord Khalifa Haftar, and the lack of a constitutional basis to hold free and fair elections in the country within the agreed timeline, the process literally became a born-dead one.
Read: Iran’s Bitter Choice and the Russia-Ukraine WarSecond, Russian private military companies such as the Wagner Group are sent to war zones to support pro-Russian figures such as Khalifa Haftar of Libya and attempt to encircle NATO for strategic leverage such as the Russian military presence in Africa.
Due to the election laws unilaterally issued by the Aguila Saleh-led House of Representatives, Khalifa Haftar could now run for Libya’s presidency.
For example, whereas Turkey supported the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya, mercenaries from Sudan fought for Khalifa Haftar.
To illustrate, the UAE showed a similar concern to the rise of political Islam in Libya by supporting Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the Libya National Army (LNA), with advanced weapons.
The Turkish expansion of military technology into Africa caused serious challenges for France as Khalifa Haftar’s forces were defeated thanks to the UAVs’ military superiority.
Two years ago, Khalifa Haftar was about to enter Tripoli victorious, after he had besieged it with the support of Egypt and the UAE.
Within this context, the state-building processes undertaken in the country have alienated Khalifa Haftar, who was supported by Cairo since the second round of the Libyan Civil War.
When the Libyan civil war broke out, Egypt supported the Libyan National Army led by Khalifa Haftar, while Turkey backed the UN-recognized Government of National Accord in Tripoli.
The former had alienated some Tripoli armed groups and built rapports with adverse factions, while the latter damaged his political brand by legitimizing eastern ex-General Khalifa Haftar’s military adventures.
Therefore, it does not surprise anyone that Germany's arms exports to Egypt and to the United Arab Emirates, both who support the Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, significantly increased in the first half of 2019, despite both countries' involvement in the Yemen conflict.
The militia group led by former general Khalifa Haftar, one of the largest armed forces in the country, has intensified its efforts to seize the capital, overthrow the internationally recognized GNA and establish a military regime.
The publication also notes the allegations made by President Erdogan to Russia, on the use of PMC “Wagner” to support the Libyan National Army, led by Khalifa Haftar.