As we get closer to the June 24 Presidential elections, the topic of Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East fades away from daily politics in Turkey. However, a recent development, particularly the ongoing negotiations between Ankara and Washington, concerning the issue of Manbij, still remains pressing. Last week, Cavusoglu and the U.S. Secretary of State, Pompeo, held a bilateral meeting in Brussels to talk about current political rifts between Ankara and Washington, specifically to discuss how both sides can work towards overcoming the issue of PKK/YPG presence in Manbij. Undoubtedly, Manbij is not the only issue between Turkey and the U.S. Through this meeting, S-400s, Russia, and other regional topics were also put on the table.

When the negotiation between Ankara and Washington was taking place, French soldiers were photographed in Manbij while patrolling along with U.S. troops in military vehicles that carried French flags. France’s strategic rationality is understandable because of many reasons, and the increasing role of France in the region, especially in northern Syria, might pose new challenges for Ankara’s short-term strategic game plan. Therefore, Ankara is carefully following the developments in the region as the election atmosphere continues to spread across the country.

There are three components of the French approach towards northern Syria vis-à-vis the PYD-YPG presence. While the first one is to accomplish the fight against DAESH on the military front, the second one is to back local, political, and military forces (in this case, the SDF will probably be the main actor) to improve and consolidate local governance, including the security sectors. The last one will be part of the wider political transition period if international actors can reach a comprehensive peace plan for the future of Syria. It seems that France and the U.S. believe that the PYD, as the main component of the SDF structure, is vital in this transition process if they can console Turkey on the matter. However, the picture is completely different for Turkey.

Manbij is one of the critical issues that Turkey and the U.S. administrations have to overcome. France is trying to signal to Turkey that they are also a partner of the SDF-PYD in this region. Unfortunately, the latest conversation between Pompeo and Cavusoglu could not bring an end to the disagreement on the Manbij issue. The U.S. State Department released a statement after the meeting indicating that both sides are still testing each other about Manbij. While the U.S. reaffirmed their support for the established bilateral process to find a common way forward on Manbij, and underlined the U.S’s commitment to support Turkey’s national security concerns, Turkey recalled that the U.S. should take concentrate steps to end YPG presence in Manbij.

At this point, Turkey’s position is very clear. According to Ankara, Manbij city council should be run by groups in line with the past census results of the city, before the demographic change in the area imposed by the YPG and PKK took place. On the other hand, the U.S. initially wants to certain Turkey’s Afrin model whether the establishment of the city council properly works or not. However, Ankara does not seem to accept the U.S. proposal. According to the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Cavusoglu, if the U.S. complies with the preliminary agreement on a roadmap, then the PKK will withdraw from Manbij while U.S. military presence will be maintained along with Turkish military presence. However, it is not expected that the Manbij conundrum will remain unsolved before the upcoming elections.

The U.S.’s game plan, especially after Pompeo’s appointment as the new secretary of state, is not about U.S. support to the PKK in northern Syria. There are two main strategies that Pompeo aims to achieve as the new secretary of state in charge. The first one is about Turkey-Russia relations particularly on the issue of the S-400 delay. Manbij is perceived by the U.S. as leverage to undermine the Turkish-Russian deal on the air defense missile system, which will be delivered to Turkey by the end of 2019. The second one is about anti-Iran rhetoric in the region, in which Turkey is seen as one of the important players in deterring Iranian influence. From Ankara’s point of view, the upcoming election will be a determinant factor. If President Erdogan maintains his power, then the Turkish position will not change. However, the problem between the two sides will continue.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s two-day visit to Pakistan on November 16 is largely viewed as a fresh move to give impetus to Islamabad-Ankara bilateral ties in trade, defence, education, and other sectors. Next year will mark the 70th year of Pakistan-Turkey diplomatic ties, which Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has pledged to celebrate with “zeal and enthusiasm.”

The current trade volume between Islamabad and Ankara is recorded at around $500 million in 2014-15, with exports to Turkey recorded at $309.19 million and imports at $191.05 million, according to Pakistan’s Ministry of Commerce. In August, Pakistan and Turkey agreed to eliminate 85% of tariffs in an attempt to enhance trade, part of a larger Free Trade Agreement (FTA) under negotiation.

Ahead of Erdogan’s visit, Pakistan declined to extend the visas of 108 Turkish nationals and their families, all teachers at a network of private schools with ties to Fethullah Gulen. Turkish officials, including President Erdogan, have been calling for Islamabad to close the Gulen-linked schools for months, saying they were part of a terror organization behind the coup attempt and years of attempts at destabilization in the country, and were a threat to Pakistan as well.

“We have to be very careful with such organizations and their causing risk and threat for the security and stability of every country where they have presence,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in Islamabad this August.

In his address to a joint session of Pakistan’s parliament, the third such occasion, Erdogan expressed his gratitude by saying that “I am thankful for the solidarity demonstrated by the Pakistan on this matter… And for their decisive stance against this organization.”

“It is imperative to dismantle this evil network,” Erdogan said. “The terrorist organization is a threat to the security and public order of Pakistan.”

Islamabad had already set a November 20 deadline for Pak-Turk staff to leave the country. However, Erdogan assured the students who were studying in the Pak-Turk schools would be taken care of with the highest standards, and Islamabad has said arrangements will be made to ensure the schools continue to function, but under a new administration.

http://thenewturkey.org/sino-turkish-relations-in-the-age-of-global-transformation/

Many Pakistanis have witnessed three military administrations themselves; and have praised Erdogan and the public’s success at foiling the July 15 coup. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif himself was jailed and exiled after a military coup in 1999, after a coup by the head of the military, Gen. Pervez Musharraf. Musharraf, who spent his childhood in Turkey, has repeatedly praised the Turkish military for its role in leading Turkey. Sharif returned from exile in 2007, and months of street protests by his followers and other civilian leaders forced Musharraf’s resignation within a year.

During Erdogan’s visit, Sharif told Parliament the way Turkey “defeated this illegal assault on democracy was remarkable.” In May, Sharif acted as a witness at the marriage of President Erdogan’s daughter in Istanbul, a reflection of the closeness of the two leaders, who head countries trying to emerge from a long history of military interventions.

While political leaders in Pakistan have agreed with Islamabad’s decision to deport the Pak-Turk teachers, some, like Hamid Mir, a political commentator and a senior journalist based in Islamabad, have speculated the actions may have been a product of the Sharif-Erdogan relationship, and that Islamabad and Ankara failed to make a public case for why the steps should be taken.

Support for Pakistan’s Kashmir Policy

Erdogan offered support for Islamabad at a time of heightened cross border tensions in the disputed region of Kashmir, where scores of civilians have been killed since September in firing between Pakistani and Indian soldiers.

Referring to the Kashmir issue, Erdogan said the dispute of Kashmir should be resolved by Islamabad and New Delhi in line with UN resolutions and the wishes of Kashmiri people.

He stressed the need for stepped up cooperation against terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda and its affiliate Daesh who he said are the agents of the war carried out against Islam.

He pledged Pakistan-Turkey ties would be deepened further through the Strategic Cooperation Council, which was established in 2009 between Ankara and Islamabad.

Since then, both the countries have signed 51 agreements and documents within the council.

Under the new arrangements between Pakistan and Turkey, 500 Pakistani students would be able to go to Turkey for PhD scholarships every year in light of a document signed between Pakistan’s Higher Education Commission and the Turkish higher education body.

Sharif lauded Turkey’s bid for Pakistan to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). “Our close relationship serves as a stability factor in the region,” Sharif said of Pakistan-Turkey cooperation.

Pakistan has already applied for the membership of the 48-member organization. Turkey has been supporting Pakistan’s membership in the NSG—the 48-member group, which regulates international nuclear commerce.

Turkey is supporting a call for a criteria-based approach for admitting non-NPT countries.

Earlier, Pakistan Army Chief General Raheel Sharif while welcoming Erdogan, said Islamabad and Ankara have brotherly relations and both countries are time-tested friends.

A statement from the Presidency stated that Erdogan agreed to the idea floated by President Mamnoon Hussain regarding a long-term bilateral defence cooperation agreement.

Islamabad and Turkey are already pursuing a number of defence collaboration projects with Anakara is helping Islamabad with the midlife upgrade of Khalid-Class Submarines and the two sides also collaborated in building a Naval Fleet Tanker.

In addition, Turkey is interested in purchasing MFI-17 Super Mushshak aircraft from Pakistan.

Expanding Economic Cooperation

Pakistan and Turkey have agreed on the elimination of 85% of tariffs, a deal that will include regulatory duties and additional duties in case of Pakistan and additional duties and mass housing fund duties in case of Turkey.

Pakistan’s exports to Turkey are likely to increase by $500million to $600 million in a short span of time. Major trade items between Pakistan and Turkey include fabrics, beverages, spirits and vinegar, plastics, chemicals and machinery.

Pakistan’s exports are concentrated in construction, transportation, other business services and government services while imports are concentrated in transportation, other business services, travel, construction, and government services.

“In the next few years, with the passage of time trade and commerce relations between the two countries will reach new heights,” said Hassan Askari Rizvi, a noted political analyst. Both the leaderships have pledged to expand trade at a time when a number of Turkish companies have been working in Pakistan, he added. ”The relationship is mutually beneficial for both Islamabad and Ankara,” Rizvi concluded.