With no surprise German Chancellor Angela Merkel won the federal elections on 24^th September while major parties, including her own, suffered the worst-ever losses in German political history since 1949. In her early statements subsequent to the initial projections of the election results last Sunday, Merkel commented on the results with the words “we reached the strategic goals of our election campaign.” During a time period where Europe and so-called “Western values” are facing populist and right-wing challenges, Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) will once again become the only group able to build a coalition government in order to rule Europe’s most ‘powerful’ country for an additional four years.

Due to the deficit of the German parliamentary system, the building of a coalition including the negotiation process can last until Christmas of this year, or even longer. Merkel, who just started a new election campaign on the state level in Lower Saxony with regard to the elections on 25 October, will once again arrange a new coalition government. On the federal level, it is currently impossible to build a coalition government against the Christian Democratic parties by all the other five parliamentary groups. By gaining only 32,9% of the votes, Merkel’s Union will have 246 seats while the Social Democratic SPD (20,5%) 153 seats, the right-wing populist AfD (Alternative for Germany) party (12,6%) 94 seats (92 without Frauke Petry and Mario Mieruch who recently quitted their party), Free Democratic FDP (10,7%) 80 seats, the left-wing Linke (9,2%) 69 seats and the Greens (8,9%) 67 seats in Germany’s Federal Parliament, the 19^th German Bundestag.

With regard to the current number (709) of deputies in the parliament, the support of at least 355 MPs is required in order to elect the Chancellor of the new federal government. Another important result of the recent election is the fact that the two major parties reached just 53 percent of the total vote, which is the lowest combined share ever in German political history (for instance in 1987: 81,3%; 1998: 76%; 2013: 67,2%). The rationale behind this can be elaborated as a new trend according to which the German electorate diminish their traditional party allegiance and vote for other, small and even extremist parties.

Since its establishment in 1949, Germany has been governed by Christian Democrat Chancellors for approximately 48 years. For instance CDU leader Merkel has been governing the country for twelve years – and will most probably l continue her job as Chancellor for an additional four years. On the other hand, the Social Democrats have only occupied the powerful Chancellor position for 20 years in total. Generally the federal governments in Germany consisted of two party coalitions with a major and junior partner; or, as was recently the case, between 2005-2009 and 2013-2017, of a so called “grand coalition,” which is a constellation of the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats.

With the disastrous election results for both major parties, a new debate started whether a grand coalition undermines the efficient political culture in Germany. Even though Merkel still considers a potential grand coalition, the Social Democrats do not share the same feelings towards Merkel’s such ambition. According to the current election result, the SPD ruled out joining any grand coalition due to the fact that the AfD –as the third largest parliamentary group– will become the main opposition party. A no-go in post-war Germany? According to the SPD the answer to this question is yes. However, Angela Merkel did not speak against this possibility. Actually, it is too early to predict a concrete government constellation. An additional reason for the harsh position of the SPD is most likely the fact that the Social Democrats’ two worst election results since WWII have come directly on the heels of playing the role of CDU/CSU’s junior coalition partner (2009 & 2017). Consequently the SPD, still led by Martin Schulz and who took the responsibility for the worst election of the party after WWII, does not prefer to join Merkel’s government once again.

Although the SPD is tendentious to become the main opposition in the Bundestag, Angela Merkel called the Social Democrats to rethink their decision. However, Schulz rejected this offer by elaborating it as ‘waste of time.’ It is interesting to observe that mainstream media, in particular left-wing voices, also insist on preventing such a ‘grand possibility.’ The German political elite, German mainstream media, business circles and big companies call for a so-called “Jamaica Coalition” – despite its difficultness and differences with regard to the involved parties’ programs. A ‘Jamaica Coalition’ – so called because of the three parties’ colors black-yellow-green – seems to be the only likely government constellation consisting of the CDU/CSU, Liberals/FDP and the Greens. This will be a first in German history as there has never been a three-party coalition forming government on the federal level. This option is also problematic as was reflected in the recently established Jamaica coalition in Schleswig-Holstein, where the parties needed several months to reach a coalition agreement.

While the German political system does not provide a deadline for a coalition to be set,  the new 19^th Bundestag must come together by 24^th October. Within this instability, Merkel is ruling out the option of holding a second election by emphasizing respect for “the German voters’ decision.” With regard to a Jamaica coalition, it is likely that the first negotiations with party representatives of the CDU/CSU, FDP and the Greens will be postponed until the end of the state elections in Lower Saxony on 15 October.

The 24 September federal election also revealed some interesting issues with regard to the German political environment and particularly concerning some leaders’ approaches.

For instance, while not resigning from the party leadership position, SPD’s Schulz took responsibility for the party’s defeat and made it clear that he will not act as the party’s parliamentary group leader. If one examines his statements, it becomes apparent that Schulz still appears very aggressive for instance by addressing Chancellor Merkel. For instance, during the “elephant round” which generally takes place right after the election, Schulz was actually in a fighting mood against the Chancellor. For some minutes Schulz harshly attacked Merkel by literally calling her as “the biggest loser.” Furthermore, Schulz charged Merkel with being responsible for the AfD’s strong result by stating “Ms. Merkel has led a scandalous election campaign.”

The same can be said for the newly elected SPD parliamentary group leader Nahles who attacked her former Cabinet colleagues from the CDU/CSU by stating “Starting tomorrow, we’ll be right in their face.” It also seems that members in the SPD do not have courage to criticize and speak up against Schulz’ over-confident decisions and sharp statements. Nevertheless, the current situation of the SPD suggests that the party will become a platform of competition between Nahles and Schulz in the course of the upcoming party congress in December this year, where Schulz, once again, will aim to run for party leadership.

As a result, it can openly be stated that the entering of AfD into the Bundestag is a federal reflection of the German political reality, which is currently the case in 13 of 16 German federated state parliaments. With the federal election on 24 September, the contemporary reality ultimately reached the federal capital of Germany. Thus, despite the disappointment and frustrated statements on media outlets and in political circles, it is not true that this result caused an actual shock wave in German society. Moreover, instead of being surprised the mainstream parties have to reorganize and create efficient approaches and alternatives.

To some extent, the result was predictable and now this has to be addressed seriously without an overestimation of the AfD. With no doubt the striking number of right-wing, extremist and populist AfD deputies in the federal parliament is perceived as a new challenge for the German political elite in Berlin. Thinking about the potential total number of MP assistants and other AfD-employees of each AfD deputy, who will also enter into the Bundestag,  it becomes clear that the political mood in Berlin will be tense when trying to communicate with far-right politicians and affiliated employees. Nevertheless, Berlin-based political scientist Oskar Niedermayer states that the AfD in parliament should not be overrated; above all due to the fact that no political group wants to build a coalition with the far-right populists. However, Niedermayer also emphasizes the possibility that the Bundestag’s debate culture could be worsened due to some racist-nationalist AfD deputies’ actions and behaviors. In the context of the AfD, some polls revealed that more than 60 percent of current AfD voters cast a protest vote. Thus, this vote should not be considered as an expression commitment to the AfD’s party program. In addition, 50 percent of AfD voters described themselves as critical of the party for not doing enough to distance itself from the far right.

That is to say; first of all, the AfD should not be overrated as previously stated. Secondly, the right-wing populists should be prevented from dominating the Bundestag by abusing several mechanisms. Whether this will be possible is one of the main challenges the main parties, above all the government parties, the main opposition party and some key figures have to think about. Under these circumstances, the wrong path for mainstream parties would be imitating AfD’s racist discourses and populist statements. Unfortunately this was the case when CSU leader Horst Seehofer blamed the CDU/CSU for having left “the right flank open,” which, according to him, made it possible for this gap to be exploited by the AfD. But seriously, what should have been done? Be more racist than a racist party? Or solve the problems of the electorate by accurate and reasonable solution approaches? Preferably, the latter. As it is rightly stated, if a country accepts that right-wing extremists entered the parliament due to 890.000 refugees who came to Germany, what will this country do if a real crisis arises? This question has to be taken into consideration by all; not just by political parties.

The September 24, 2017 parliamentary elections in Germany seem to have a striking result. For the first time since the foundation of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1949 a party defined as neo-Nazi by most German politicians was able to surpass the 5% electoral threshold and hold seats in the parliament; this could be regarded as the most astounding feature of the elections. While perceiving itself as the insurance of the EU and successfully protecting itself from far-right movements, the victory of the xenophobic, anti-immigrant and Islamophobic Alternative for Germany (AfD- Alternative für Deutschland), which received 12.6% of the vote and obtained 94 seats in the Federal Parliament, marks a new era in Germany.

Besides being xenophobic, anti-immigrant and Islamophobic, AfD’s desire to revert Germany to its nation-state structure, thus standing against the EU, means that Berlin’s role within the union will be increasingly questioned. Seeing itself as the defender of European values and the leader of the EU, while being criticized by many European countries like Poland, Italy, Hungary and Greece for patronizing other countries, Germany will have a hard time maintaining its bid for EU leadership after AfD’s rise. Building extreme right pressure in Germany, similar to France, indicates that the worst is yet to come for the EU, which is already facing the risk of dissolution.

Another significant result of the election is that a three-way coalition government has become imperative for the first time since 1957. As it seems highly improbable that a coalition consisting a center-right, a liberal and a leftist party could be established, let alone stay intact for 4 years, it would not be unrealistic to suggest that serious instability awaits Germany. After 60 years, Germany is once again preparing for a three-way coalition government. While it may be asserted that the country already has a tradition of coalitions as it has constantly been governed by them since 1957, what is important to note is that they have always been two-party coalitions. Bringing business-minded FDP together with the leftist Greens and making them cooperate will be a challenging task to accomplish for the CDU/CSU – the greater partner of this coalition.

Moreover, CSU, the smaller partner of the Christian Union Parties, being in crisis and having issues in communicating with CDU are other factors that could cause instability. Lastly, having 6 parties in the parliament for the first time in 60 years could also cause instability resulting from the distribution of political power between these groups.

Centrist parties are losing power in Europe

Another significant trend reflected by the election results is that the centrist political parties in Germany are continuing to lose votes, as is also the case in other European countries. Although they are still the most powerful parties, unlike those in France, the Netherlands and Austria, Germany’s two powerful centrist parties have lost around 13.8% of the vote in comparison to the previous election. Their combined vote, 53.4%, is the lowest in Germany’s history. This should be regarded as an indicator that confirms the worries of those that fear of Germany’s instability.

Social Democratic Party (SPD – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands) receiving 20.5% of the vote, thus the lowest in their history, is another astounding result of the election. SPD’s votes, declining since Gerhard Schröder’s resignation from the Chancellorship and party chairmanship in 2005, could partially be explained due to the party sharing its voter base with other leftist parties like The Left (Die Linke) and Greens. Left votes in Germany declining to 38.5% signifies that leftist parties, especially the SPD, are unsuccessful in persuading German voters. When considering that the left had received more than half of the total votes in the 2002 election, which carried Schröder to power, the dissolution of Germany’s left becomes evident. SPD’s votes being distributed between the extreme left Die Linke and the extreme right AfD indicates that this is not an issue only about the German left. On the contrary, it is an issue concerning the whole country and Europe.

Another reality marked by the results of the election is that competing with far-right AfD in xenophobia and Islamophobia, along with competing amongst themselves in anti-Turkey sentiments, did not yield any benefits for centrist parties. AfD, tripling its vote and becoming the third most successful of the election, has shown other parties that advocating their own policies and principles instead of imitating AfD’s xenophobic and anti-immigrant sentiments would have been more credible for their voter base. As a result of the media’s editorial policy, which pumps insecurity, fear and concern, voters who maintain negative views towards migration and foreigners have found AfD’s anti-immigrant discourse more realistic.

Similarly, following the trend of The Left and Greens in terms of anti-Turkey sentiments, centrist parties CDU/CSU and SPD were unable to wrest any benefits from their hostile discourse towards Ankara. The power struggle these parties entered into with Turkey displeased voters who believe Germany is a country of commerce that ought to stay out of any conflict. The antagonistic policies towards Turkey, developed especially by leftist parties, were also punished by conservative voters of Turkish origin. Meanwhile, the anti-Erdoğan and anti-AK Party perception created through the smear campaign carried out by the media served AfD.

Effects of the election results on Turkish-German relations

According to the results of the election, there were two possibilities regarding a coalition. The most probable was the continuation of the “Grand Coalition” (between CDU/CSU and SPD) which was preferred by Chancellor Merkel. However, after SPD Chairman Martin Schulz stated that his party is to become the opposition, the only alternative is the coalition between CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens, which is also known as the “Jamaica Coalition.” Considering that all parties oppose a coalition with AfD, that the leftist parties lack seats to form a “leftist coalition,” and that the CDU/CSU categorically reject a coalition with Die Linke, the Jamaica Coalition becomes the only available option.

Formation and maintenance of this coalition is indeed challenging. Yet, how would this coalition affect Turkish-German relations?

Firstly, the Greens, who alongside Die Linke, have led an ideological hostility towards Turkey claiming that if they were to become partners of the coalition they would issue travel warnings as to wreck Turkey’s tourism. In an attempt to increase economic and political pressure on Turkey by claiming that Ankara only understands from stern language, it should be underlined that a party who has maintained this negative discourse sharing political power in a coalition will have negative consequences for Turkish-German relations. Considering that the party consorts Turkey’s domestic affairs into Germany’s agenda through anti-Turkey diaspora members and negatively affects Berlin’s policies towards Ankara, the Greens might exacerbate existing issues between the two countries if they maintain these policies when part of the coalition government.

In such a scenario, potential coalition partner FDP’s intervention and assertion that Germany is a commerce country which should refrain from constructing foreign policy based on ideology gains importance. It is highly likely that the CDU/CSU’s ideological approach towards Turkey was influenced during the election campaign due to Die Linke and the Greens. Within this framework therefore, the FDP ought to take duty in pulling the government back onto a rationalist doctrine.

Future relations between Germany and Turkey will be shaped by a possible Jamaica Coalition, whose major political lines will be determined by either the Greens’ ideological foreign policy or FDP’s expected pragmatism along with Merkel’s CDU/CSU’s approach to these two options.

Ankara’s position is clear. Turkey expects Germany to accept it as a sovereign and equal partner and to halt support to PKK and FETO as a requirement of the NATO alliance.