U.S. President Trump has once again rocked the world agenda with his tweets. He declared that he will withdraw the American troops in Syria. The order to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria was signed shortly after. According to American news sources, the order will start the withdrawal of 2600 American servicemen in Syria; it is “expected to begin in the next several weeks and could take several weeks to finish.”

President Trump’s decision led to severe repercussions in the American state apparatus as Secretary of Defense James Mattis quit and the top U.S. envoy leading the international coalition fighting Deash, Brett McGurk resigned. General Joseph Votel of CENTCOM has also made it clear how upset they are because of this decision. All this shows that Trump took this decision not only independent of this bureaucratic apparatus and some of his own men but also against them.

For so long, the circle around Trump tried hard to persuade him that the PYD is the only partner that they can work with on the ground. Despite Turkey’s persistent calls and warnings with regard to the PYD terrorism against Turkey, the U.S. has so far walked with the PYD. But it seems like those days are over now. Turkey’s President Erdogan has persuaded Trump to leave working with the PYD in Syria in a phone call. The unexpected part was that Trump decided not only to leave the PYD but the country altogether, which was a surprise to everybody. Nobody was ready to this new situation and it will be a whole new challenge. What might happen next then?

Despite Turkey’s persistent calls and warnings with regard to the PYD terrorism against Turkey, the U.S. has so far walked with the PYD. But it seems like those days are over now.

Assuming that the U.S. will pull out, this leaves us with a territory composing more than a quarter of Syria’s land mass. This huge mass of land will attract the interests of many global, regional, and local actors. Of course, the timing and style of the American withdrawal will limit the options but in any way, the land mass is too big not to catch some interested eyes. The first thing to know about this new vacuum is that is it too big not to catch such an attention but again, it is also too big to be controlled by a single actor alone.

As for Turkey, it would prioritize to clean its immediate neighborhood from the PYD. For this reason, Turkey might start its cleaning with Manbij in the west of the Euphrates and go on along its border toward the east. But with regard to the further south toward Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor, it might be quite a bit of stretch for Turkey and its local partners to control all alone. I believe Turkey will be open to negotiate with other involved powers in the control of these southern territories and in the fight against DEASH.

Assuming that the U.S. will pull out, this leaves us with a territory composing more than a quarter of Syria’s land mass. This huge mass of land will attract the interests of many global, regional, and local actors.

European powers, Iran, and Russia all have already shown or will show interest in this landmass but it seems like it will be Russia that Turkey and its local partners will have to deal with. Iran will not make a good partner in the East of the Euphrates as its involvement will also produce the need to counterbalance from Israel and Saudi Arabia, which will bring further trouble to the already suffering Syria.

European powers, on the other hand, are too weak on the ground to have a say in the bargain. This leaves Russia as the most prominent actor in the future of the area for Turkey. This is not too bad for Turkey given the coordination level the two countries reached in Syria is impressive. The Astana process did not resolve the Syria case so far but achieved to prevent the war to escalate. The two countries share this goal of ending the war and further to keep the territorial integrity of Syria intact.

Hence, it is not too hard to imagine that Turkey and Russia can cut a deal for the east of the Euphrates as well. Further, if the U.S., one way or another, wants to dictate the terms of filling in the vacuum it will leave, Turkey again can play its hand to find a middle ground with the U.S. It seems like Turkey has learnt how not to lose the diplomacy game with great powers in the Syria theatre.

In a press meeting after a cabinet meeting yesterday, spokesman for the Turkish presidency, Ibrahim Kalin, told reporters that Turkey has long borders and different interests, which makes it possible for the country to buy both the S-400 and Patriot air defense system if necessary.

Kalin answered questions on issues such as Turkey’s ongoing fight against terrorism, the U.S. withdrawal from Syria, developments in the Eastern Mediterranean and recent developments in relations between Ankara and Washington.

Commenting on the decision of the U.S. Department of Defense regarding the Patriot sales to Turkey, the spokesman highlighted that the U.S. administration expressed the fact that there are no obstacles ahead of the sale of the defense system to Turkey. However, in regards to the amount, Kalin said, “The decision made by the U.S. administration is pleasing for us. However, the nature and content of the offer is important. The details of the offer regarding issues such as co-production, price, credits, transfer of technology, and delivery time are important. Turkey turned to Russia for S-400s because we got the best offer from Russia. Turkey has long borders and is dealing with different problems in various regions, and therefore it will not be surprising to purchase both systems if necessary.”

Ibrahim Kalin also commented on the U.S. withdrawal from Syria and stated, “The decision to withdraw will contribute to the diplomatic solution of the Syrian crisis. The decision came after a telephone conversation made between President Trump and President Erdogan on December 14. This phone conversation was a historical one.”

Answering a question on the developments in the East Mediterranean, Kalin stated that Turkey will continue to maintain its economic policies with determination in the region in 2019 and highlighted the importance of this by stating, “The East Mediterranean is a region constantly in motion. We have not allowed any de-facto situation in the north, south, east, or west of Cyprus, and will not allow this in the future. Our goal is to make the region a sea of peace.”

The presidential spokesperson also mentioned that a delegation from the U.S. will arrive in Turkey this week and will discuss the details of coordination for the Manbij deal. He informed reporters that both Erdogan and Trump agreed on the issue of coordination in Manbij and that this coordination will have a road map. “The U.S. delegation is coming to have a meeting with the Turkish delegation in order to discuss the details of this coordination.”

He also added that there will be a delegation from Turkey visiting the U.S. in January and that a meeting between Erdogan and Trump is not expected due to Turkey’s pre-occupation with the local elections in March. However, he did mention that President Erdogan invited Trump to Turkey and that while Trump accepted the offer, a date has not been set yet.

Meanwhile, Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria is still showing its effects in Washington. After the resignation of Secretary of Defense – James Mattis – another important actor within the U.S. administration – Brett McGurk – the U.S. special envoy for the global coalition against DAESH – also resigned from his position.

*Written by Selahattin Emre Celebi 

Last week was very hectic for Turkey’s foreign policy agenda. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will withdraw from Syria after a telephone conversation he had with President Erdogan. Since Turkey has been very determinant on having another military operation in Syria towards the east of the Euphrates in order to wipe the U.S.-backed YPG forces out, possible outcomes of this withdrawal decision have been increasingly debated. How will Turkey renew its road map for a possible operation towards the east of the Euphrates under new circumstances? Will an ongoing balance of power among Turkey, Iran, and Russia change after the withdrawal? The answers to these questions are highly crucial to clarify the blurred picture.

In addition to its foreign policy agenda, the latest incidents created enormous effects in domestic affairs. It is obvious that one of the controversial issues in Turkey’s local election agenda will be the military operation towards the east of the Euphrates. Due to this reason, it is necessary to evaluate the positions of Turkey’s political parties and how they interpret this issue.

After President Erdogan clearly underlined that Turkey will pursue a new military operation in Syria, the deputy chairman of the CHP stated that his party will only support diplomatic and “peaceful” solutions rather than military operations in the region. Nevertheless, the party did not propose any recommendation for implementing a diplomatic solution for this long-standing intractable conflict, which has caused the death and displacement of millions. Kilicdaroglu, leader of the CHP, was also cautious about the possible military operation and underlined creating channels of dialogue. It is obvious that the CHP is taking a firm stand on this issue and is waiting for further developments. Furthermore, it is obvious that the CHP favors direct negotiations with the Assad regime in order to bring a solution to the conflict.

How will Turkey renew its road map for a possible operation towards the east of the Euphrates under new circumstances? Will an ongoing balance of power among Turkey, Iran, and Russia change after the withdrawal?

The HDP, on the contrary, is openly attacking the possible military operation of Turkey in Syria. The co-chairman of the party stated that Turkey and Russia should leave Syrian territories and that Syrian people should use their self-determination rights. Furthermore, the withdrawal decision of the U.S. was not found persuasive by the party due to the previous similar announcements of the U.S.

Contrary to the official statement of the party, HDP circles harshly criticized the decision of the U.S. through social media channels. They even initiated a petition campaign to the White House urging for the U.S. support the Kurds in its fight against Turkey. These circles define the Turkish army as “predator” and “invasive.” They claim that Turkey will invade Kurdish territories in Northern Syria and cause an irreversible human catastrophe. These groundless claims are also very popular in the Western media and are increasingly being circulated nowadays.

All developments until now show that Turkey’s military operation in Syria may be one of the determinants of the result in Turkey’s upcoming local elections.

It is obvious that Turkey’s possible operation towards the east of the Euphrates will be one of the hot topics of local election campaigns. Even if the CHP hesitates to take a firm stand under current conditions, it may instrumentalize Turkey’s possible military operation to criticize the government in the long-term. However, the HDP may take a harsher position, including mobilizing its supporters, like it did before. All developments until now show that Turkey’s military operation in Syria may be one of the determinants of the result in Turkey’s upcoming local elections.