A State within a State? Bosnia’s Serbian Problem
Republika Srpska cannot deploy an independent armed force under international agreements and Bosnia's multinational army is obliged to protect all citizens, regardless of religion and race.
Bosnian Serb troops take part in a parade in East Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, on January 09, 2023 to mark 09 January -- the Day of Republika Srpska, which is one of the country's two ethnic regions, locally called entities. Photo by Anadolu Images
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osnia and Herzegovina is made up of different ethnic and religious communities. The Serbs, as a prominent minority, have their own autonomous entity, the Republika Srpska, which makes up half of the Bosnian state, the other being the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Republika Srpska has its own legal authorities and institutions, but it still has to abide by national laws. However, this system does not appear to work as intended—especially when the largest minority demands secession.
The issue of secession has a legal and political background. Milorad Dodik’s recent legislation, which was passed on June 27, targets property ownership. His desire is to protect Serbian property as he fears that Bosnian authorities will either confiscate it or give it to Europeans seeking to buy property in Bosnia. Meanwhile Bosnian lawmakers are promoting the nationalization of state property since for them, real estate should not be under the jurisdiction of state entities but should belong to the state of Bosnia-Herzegovina as a whole.
The Serbian constituents of Republika Srpska are alarmed by such news: they want to take full control of the properties under their jurisdiction. The attitude signals the desire for independence, and Dodik is threatening Bosnia with an independence referendum which would allow it to secede from the country.
Bosnian Serbs’ strife for an independent foreign policy
Dodik’s motive for secession can be traced back to his vision of foreign policy. He believes that the West is responsible for dragging countries into wars, and follows a pro-Russian stance in most policymaking. For example, he blames the West for causing the war in Ukraine. This attitude stems from his political experience in the Yugoslav Wars, which he believes were instigated by the West. That is why he wants to keep Bosnia away from Western influence.
Dodik found an alternative in the policy goals of Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić. As of 2020, Vučić has been formulating new goals for his country’s foreign policy which he calls “Srpski Svet” (Serbian World). These policy goals include the expansion of Serbian influence in the Balkans. According to “Srpski Svet,” Serbia should have more influence in countries where Serbian minorities live and Serbia should become an independent actor which connects Europe and Eurasia.
Dodik is known as a pro-Russian figure and Putin often vocalizes his support for him. Vučić’s foreign policy agenda bears similarities to Putin’s “Russkiy Mir” (Russian World) wherein Putin promotes ethnonationalism and independence. However, Bosnia is governed by international law and EU regulations—a fact that Dodik interprets as his country being governed by foreign institutions, comparing the situation to that of the Russian minority which lives in the eastern provinces of Ukraine. If Bosnia does not change its pro-Western policy, he suggests Republika Srpska should secede.
Military parade is held during the celebrations marking the creation of Republika Srpska in 1992 despite it is being unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Photo by Anadolu Images.
Religious and ethnic distinctiveness of Bosnian Serbs
Domestic concerns have also been a powerful reason for promoting secession in the Balkans. Ethnic and religious divisions are in the political rhetoric of populist politicians. On July 30, Dodik denied the genocide of Muslims in Srebrenica and claimed that Bosniaks needed public support, reinforcing the myth of Serbian martyrdom. Dodik believes that Bosniaks are “second-class people” who have exchanged their original Orthodox faith for material gain.
The Republika Srpska holds public ceremonies in which Catholic Croats and Muslim Bosnians (Bosniaks) are cursed. These events glorify Serbian war criminals such as Ratko Mladić. Dodik deliberately keeps alive the nationalistic fervor of the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s fueled by his desire to keep Republika Srpska under his jurisdiction ethnically homogeneous. As a result, other ethnic groups such as Croats and Bosniaks do not settle in Republika Srpska.
Dodik also shuns the Serbs who volunteer to serve in the Bosnian army. Legally, Republika Srpska cannot deploy an independent armed force under international agreements and Bosnia’s multinational army is obliged to protect all citizens, regardless of religion and race. As a matter of principle, the army cannot be composed of a single ethnic group; however, Dodik argues in favor of a Serbian army to protect Serbians. An ethnicity-based regional army would drastically reduce Sarajevo’s control over Republika Srpska.
Dialogue for the future of Bosnian Serbs
Dodik does not limit his diplomatic ties to Russia and Serbia. Last year, he invited Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Croatian President Zoran Milanović to participate in a dialogue for his handling of Bosnia-Herzegovina’s internal problems. He was also invited by Erdoğan to the Turkish Parliament where he celebrated Erdoğan’s statements on reducing foreign influence in Bosnia.
Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán tried to persuade Dodik to integrate with the EU instead of becoming an independent foreign state. The two have a close relationship and Dodik pays close attention to Orbán’s proposals.
The mediation efforts by Orbán, Erdoğan, and Milanović, who are all familiar with the political culture of the Balkans, can help Bosnia contain the secession issue. While traditional actors such as Russia and the United States are on opposite sides, new mediators can find a middle ground.
