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n a surprising turn of events, Geert Wilders, an anti-Islam and Euroskeptic politician, is projected to be the unexpected winner of the Dutch election. According to an initial exit poll, his Party for Freedom (PVV) is expected to secure around 35 of the 150 seats in parliament, which is more than double the number they won in the previous election in 2021. This outcome is likely to have a significant impact on European politics.
Frans Timmermans’s Labor-Green alliance came in second place, winning 25 seats, a significant increase from their current 17 seats. Dilan Yeşilgöz, who is set to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte as the leader of the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) party, is projected to win 24 seats, which represents a loss of 10 seats according to the exit poll conducted by the national broadcaster NOS.
Yeşilgöz, who has made notable anti-Turkey statements throughout her political career, is recognized for her stance against immigration despite being an immigrant herself. Earlier this year, as Minister of Justice and Security she indicated that police officers and special investigating officers should be “neutral” and not wear a headscarf (hijab) at their work.
However, the question remains whether other parties would be willing to form a coalition government with Wilders, as he would lack a majority in parliament despite being the largest party. In the past decade, mainstream party leaders have refused to work with Wilders in power-sharing arrangements. Nevertheless, in recent weeks, Wilders has expressed his desire to be part of a coalition after this election, downplaying his radical views on Islam and emphasizing other priorities.
The PVV still includes anti-Islam measures in its government program, such as banning mosques, the Quran, and Islamic headscarves in government buildings. Wilders is also a staunch Euroskeptic, advocating for a referendum on leaving the EU. Despite winning the most seats, it is unlikely that Wilders will become the prime minister. Yeşilgöz has already stated that she would not support Wilders as prime minister even if he had the largest share in parliament.
Pieter Omtzigt, a Dutch Christian Democrat MP has also ruled out joining forces with Wilders, citing his anti-Islam policies as contradictory to the freedoms of expression and religion protected by the Dutch constitution. Timmermans has firmly positioned himself against supporting Wilders as well.
After all the affairs and scandals in Dutch politics in recent years, such as the child benefits scandal in which thousands of families were wrongly accused of fraud on the basis of their ethnicity, it is remarkable that Dutch voters are once again choosing a right-wing party. The question of whether radical right-wing politics will last is no longer a question—it is here to stay for a while.
The PVV ultimately won due to so-called issue ownership, which in the case of the PVV was the subject of migration. In his victory speech, Wilders pledged to put an end to what he referred to as a “tsunami of asylum seekers and immigrants.”
It seems that the Dutch voted strategically to make a statement. In recent years, Wilders has appeared to move towards the center for Dutch people without migration background by putting them “first,” which was a very smart campaign strategy. Thus, he argued for more hospitals and care for Henk and Ingrid, but not for Fatima and Mohammed.
Wilders strategically appealed to Dutch voters without a migration background by prioritizing their concerns, such as healthcare, while maintaining his anti-Islam stance.
People with a migration background from different parts of the country are expressing their concerns about the increasing polarization within society.
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