Germany Unveils First National Security Strategy: Migration, Energy, and Stability

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he German coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz for the first time has uncovered a national security strategy. The strategy described Russia as the biggest security threat “for the foreseeable future,” and China as “simultaneously a partner, competitor and systemic rival.” The national security strategy aims to spend at least 2% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) on defense, starting next year, in line with the ceiling set by NATO.

On June 14, the German government announced that it broke away from the policy of “change through trade” on which German chancellors counted for years, especially Gerhard Schroeder, Angela Merkel, and Willy Brandt, to deal with countries with authoritarian regimes, to bring about change, but especially to enable industrial Germany to build up its strength as Europe’s largest economy (despite having one of the largest U.S. bases).

At a press conference in Berlin, Scholz summarized Germany’s new national security strategy, which was delayed for more than a year, by saying that Germany is “strong,” noting that it wants to have a security strategy based on three foundations: integration, flexibility, and sustainability.

The strategy suggests that Germany would play a more active role in Europe, after decades of focusing on economic investments and dependence on the U.S. and NATO for security.

Three pillars

The new national security strategy is based on three pillars.

Active defense: A commitment to high military spending, including reaching NATO’s goal of 2% of GDP on defense, and focusing on deterrence.

Flexibility: This goal concerns Germany and its allies, and focuses on protecting their values, reducing economic dependency, deterring and defeating cyberattacks, and defending the UN Charter and rule of law.

Sustainability: A commitment to tackling issues such as climate change, and energy and food crises.

Schultz noted that it was important for Berlin to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine with partners, including the postwar period, considering that “it is clear the Russian president wants to annex parts of the Russian backyard,” naming Ukraine and Belarus.

Russia and China

It is true that the national security strategy only mentions Russia and China by name, but a further reading indicates that it reflects a shift that began some time ago in the priorities of German security policy from combating terrorism, military interventions, and sending the German army on external missions towards focusing on combating terrorism and preventing conflicts between countries.

The 80-page document addresses Germany’s infrastructure, calling for the need to “reduce unilateral dependence on energy and raw material supplies by diversifying sources,” in reference to Germany’s dependence on Russian energy.

The German strategy pointed towards “the need to continue to monitor investments in order to avoid dependence on a specific party in the basic infrastructure, and to confront the issue of sensitive technology transfer.”

The German government said it would also develop a strategy to strengthen Germany’s ability to counter hybrid threats, including cyber-threats, which would require strengthening the capabilities of intelligence services.

In addition, the German national security document contained several references to security threats posed by climate change such as famine, disease, and conflict, as well as extreme weather conditions and damage to Germany’s critical infrastructure.

It seems that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed Germany’s security calculations, pushing it to adopt a more proactive strategy that enables Berlin to defend itself. It has also been revealed that Germany has revised its policy of dependence on Russia for energy and is showing more caution towards China while also continuing to engage with the latter.