November inflation rate announced

The inflation rate for November 2017 have been announced – an increase to 12.98 percent. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.49 percent from October to November.

Expectations in the market ranged between 1.1 percent and 1.25 percent.

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) the increase in CPI increased to 11.16 percent compared to December of the previous year and 12.98 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. According to the average of twelve months, CPI in November increased to 10.87 percent.

The Domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2,02 in November.

The Domestic PPI increased to 13.91 percent compared to December 2016 and by 17.30 percent compared to the same month last year. Taking into consideration the average of 12 months in November, domestic producer prices increased to 15.38 percent.

The highest increase in November was in the clothing and footwear group with 3.77 percent.

As for the main spending groups, the increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages is 2,11 percent, in transport it is 2,01, goods and services increased by 1,84 percent, and in housing 1,25 percent.

The group with the least monthly increase was alcoholic beverages and tobacco with 0.01 percent.

There was no decline in the main spending groups in November 2017. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco were the main spending groups with the least increase with 0.01 percent.

Transportation becomes annual champion

The highest annual increase was 18.56 percent in the transport group.

According to the same month of the previous year, food and non-alcoholic beverages were ranked as the main expenditure groups with 15.78 percent, various goods and services with 13.39 percent, household goods with 12.85 percent, and healthcare with 12.38 percent.

In November 2017, 414 items were included in the index; while the average prices of the 47 items remained unchanged, the average prices of 295 items increased and the average prices of 72 items decreased.

“Inflation rates likely to remain at two-digit number”

According to Prof. Dr. Umit Ozlale from the Ozyeğin University who spoke to the newspaper Haberturk; “We are confronted with the highest CPI and core inflation figures for the 2003 = 100 base series, which was launched in 2003. The CPI, which already surpasses the already high monthly expectations, is based on 13%, while core inflation, which reflects medium and long-term inflation trends better, is also over 12%.”

“The usual suspects that boost inflation are the same: food prices, which have rebounded steadily despite the drop in the previous month. It looks like we will end 2017 with an annual inflation of around 11.50%,” Ozkale added.

“These figures further strengthen our previous forecast for the 2018 monetary policy. The PPI reaching the highest level in the last nine years (17.3%) – due to the exchange rates on this level – signals that there will be no relief in inflation until the second half of 2018 due to cost increases.”

He also stated that the inflation rates are likely to remain at a two-digit number for a while.

*Written by Suna Nur Sarihan.