Scientists Warn of Record Hot Year in 2024 Due to El Nino and Climate Change
The year 2023 has already been marked by record-breaking temperatures each month since July, making it the warmest year on record.
Climaximo protesters chant slogans and occupy Maques Pombal while marching during the demonstration under the slogan 'In a state of climate emergency, resist for life' on December 09, 2023 in Lisbon, Portugal. Photo by Anadolu Images.
Leading climate scientists are issuing a stark warning that 2024 is on track to become another record-breaking year for global temperatures. This prediction comes amid the compounding effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon and the ongoing rise in global emissions intensifying climate change.
Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, told Anadolu Agency that the world is entering “uncharted territory” with climate change manifesting in real-time. The year 2023 has already been marked by record-breaking temperatures each month since July, making it the warmest year on record. Buontempo emphasized that such unprecedented ocean and atmospheric temperatures haven’t been observed in thousands of years.
Sarah Kapnick, chief scientist at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), confirmed that 2023 is poised to be the hottest year on record. She attributes this to marine heatwaves and the development of El Nino, which typically peaks in winter and contributes to a global temperature rise.
El Nino
El Nino, first observed by South American fishermen in the 1600s, influences weather significantly as warmer waters in the Pacific Ocean affect the jet stream’s position. This phenomenon leads to dryer and warmer conditions in the northern US and Canada and wetter conditions with increased flooding in the US Gulf Coast and Southeast regions.
Both scientists agree that global mean temperature peaks usually follow El Nino waves, and with the current trend, 2024 is expected to witness even higher temperatures. This could result in more heatwaves and other extreme climate events.
The scientific community is also debating how climate change-related global warming might be altering El Nino patterns. While definitive conclusions are constrained due to limited data, it’s clear that El Nino now occurs against the backdrop of a fundamentally altered climate.
Increasing global temperatures
The increasing global temperatures bring about more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods. The IPCC warns that heatwaves are rising due to climate change, posing significant risks for more intense and prolonged droughts.
As the world witnesses the tangible impacts of climate change, Kapnick warns that these effects will only intensify with delayed emissions cuts. The IPCC has stated that emissions need to be cut by at least 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. However, a recent UN Environment Program report revealed an increase in global greenhouse gas emissions, reaching a new high.
Buontempo and Kapnick stress that the key to mitigating these changes lies in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and moving towards net-zero. The continuing rise in temperatures and extreme weather events serve as a reminder of the urgent need for global action to address climate change.
Source: Anadolu Agency
