SIPRI Report: Nuclear Powers Have Increased Their Arsenals
SIPRI estimates that North Korea has accumulated about 30 warheads and possesses enough fissile material for a total of 50-70 warheads.
Members of public protesting against Britain's nuclear weapons system Trident and demanding the parliament to vote against renewing the nuclear base in Scotland, in London, England. Photo by Anadolu Images
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n its yearbook released on June 12, 2023, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) stated that the number of operational nuclear weapons has begun to rise with the continuing modernization and expansion of nuclear powers’ nuclear programs.
According to SIPRI, the nine nuclear-armed countries, namely the U.S., Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), and Israel, continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals and many of them are deploying new nuclear weapons.
SIPRI noted that Russia and the U.S. possess nearly 90 percent of all nuclear weapons in the world, and that the sizes of their nuclear arsenals remained relatively stable in 2022, despite the decline in transparency about nuclear forces in both countries following the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022.
The Swedish institute stated that the size of the Chinese nuclear arsenal increased from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023, and is expected to continue to grow.
According to Hans M. Kristensen, associate senior fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), “China has started a significant expansion of its nuclear arsenal.” “It is increasingly difficult to square this trend with China’s declared aim of having only the minimum nuclear forces needed to maintain its national security,” he added.
France, the UK, Israel and North Korea
On the other hand, the UK’s stockpile of nuclear warheads is expected to increase, as a result of the British government’s announcement in 2021 that it had raised its limit on nuclear heads from 225 to 260. The British government noted that it would not publicly disclose the number of its nuclear weapons, deployed warheads, or deployed missiles.
At the same time, France continued its efforts to develop a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile, and renewed and updated its existing programs.
The SIPRI Yearbook noted that India and Pakistan are expanding their nuclear arsenals, and that both countries have introduced and continue to develop new types of nuclear delivery systems in 2022. India appears to be increasingly focused on longer-range weapons, including those capable of reaching targets across China.
As for North Korea, the institute emphasized that Pyongyang gives priority to its nuclear program as a central element of its national security strategy. While North Korea has not conducted any nuclear tests in 2022, it has conducted more than 90 missile tests. Some of these missiles, which include new intercontinental ballistic missiles, may be capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
SIPRI estimates that North Korea has accumulated about 30 warheads and possesses enough fissile material for a total of 50-70 warheads—both significant increases from the January 2022 estimate.
“Israel—which does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons—is also believed to be modernizing its nuclear arsenal,” according to SIPRI.
Explicit or implicit threats to use nuclear weapons
Matt Korda, associate researcher with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and senior research associate with the FAS Nuclear Information Project, stated that “most of the nuclear-armed states are hardening their rhetoric about the importance of nuclear weapons, and some are even issuing explicit or implicit threats about potentially using them.” “This elevated nuclear competition has dramatically increased the risk that nuclear weapons might be used in anger for the first time since World War II,” he continued.
Wilfred Wan, director of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme at SIPRI, stated, “With billion-dollar programmes to modernize, and in some cases expand, nuclear arsenals, the five nuclear weapon states recognized by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty seem to be moving further and further from their commitment to disarmament under the treaty.”
“We are drifting into one of the most dangerous periods in human history,” said SIPRI Director Dan Smith. “It is imperative that the world’s governments find ways to cooperate in order to calm geopolitical tensions, slow arms races and deal with the worsening consequences of environmental breakdown and rising world hunger.”
The SIPRI Yearbook contains information and analysis on developments in armaments, disarmament, and international security. Earlier this year, SIPRI published a report stating that the global zeal for buying weapons have increased and more countries, including those with economic challenges, continue to purchase large amounts of weapons.
