The Gaza War Pushes International Community to Rethink Stance
The expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza will not solve Israel’s security problems—it will only exacerbate them.
Firefighters try to extinguish the fires over the destroyed buildings as the Israeli airstrikes and artillery fires continue on the 19th day in Gaza City, Gaza on October 25, 2023. Photo by Anadolu Images.
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t is clear that Tel Aviv, which never again wants to see a similar attack to that of October 7, does not care about international reactions. A possible ground operation in Gaza, the opening of a new front by Hezbollah, new attacks in Syria, and further developments in the West Bank are among the hot topics on the current agenda. Our region may experience the horrific repercussions of ambitious deterrence.
With Operation Al-Aqsa Flood carried out by Hamas on October 7, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is back on the agenda after many years. Israel, which was shocked, has imposed a “total blockade” on Gaza and is bombarding it heavily. Netanyahu has said, “Our response to the Gaza attacks will change the Middle East,” while Defense Minister Gallant expressed the harshness of Israel’s counterattacks as follows: “No electricity, no water, no food, no fuel, everything will be cut off. We are fighting ‘human animals’ and we will act accordingly.”
These statements indicate that Israel is considering all options, including a ground operation, and that its “war” will not be limited to Gaza. Israeli security forces might think the world is surprised by this attack, however, those who have been following Israel’s increasingly harsh policies in recent years against Palestinians, Jerusalem, and Al-Aqsa Mosque, could hear the bell of a major crisis tolling for some time now.
Those analyzing the attack have drawn attention to Hamas’s military capacity, the weaknesses of Israeli intelligence, the political conflict in the Israeli security services, the protests of the Israeli opposition, and the ineffectiveness of the Iron Dome, Israel’s air defense system. Meanwhile it is noteworthy that the war coincided with the normalization negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel’s assassinations of scientists inside Iran can also be recalled, pointing to Tehran’s assistance to Hamas. Hamas’s unpredictable attack coincides with Iran’s strategic interests, raising the question of whether Tehran kept silent on Israel’s attacks in Iran and Syria for a while, and responded from Gaza when it saw fit.
The answer to this question is not yet clear. Even if the answer is affirmative, the agency of the Palestinians and the intolerability of the Israeli occupation cannot be ignored. It has become clear that this problem will not end until a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital is established. The period after the Arab Spring is over. From now on, Palestine, Jerusalem, and Al-Aqsa Mosque will be increasingly on the agenda.
It is too early to predict where this conflict will lead. If, as Netanyahu implies, Israel targets Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah (the “Axis of Resistance”), the conflict in our region may spread and a new wave of instability may follow. We don’t know how Iran would react to such a scenario. Thus far, Israel’s response to this attack has been severe and completely disproportionate. What Israel’s counterattack will entail and how it will respond will determine whether we are heading for a new Middle East. Initial statements point to a very violent and widespread conflict. In order to avoid a new period of widespread conflict in the Middle East, President Erdoğan is urging restraint on all sides and Turkish diplomacy is in place.
Does Israel want a Palestinian-free Gaza?
Israel has asked the United Nations to evacuate 1.1 million Palestinians to southern Gaza. Although the UN says that “such an evacuation is impossible and would cause devastating humanitarian problems,” the Israeli army is preparing for a ground operation after heavy bombardment. The expulsion of Palestinians to the south is seen as a gradual Israeli plan to destroy any capacity of Hamas (including tunnels). With this decision, Tel Aviv is both creating an excuse to kill civilians and preparing for its real intention of making all of Gaza uninhabitable.
When the possible ground operation ends, there is talk of the possibility that Israel will expel all Palestinians from Gaza, which has been under blockade for 16 years, to Egypt. It is obvious that such an event, which would put Egypt in a very difficult situation, would cause new humanitarian disasters and radicalization to our region. After all, the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as its blind eye to the humanitarian crisis in Syria, have given birth to and strengthened many radical organizations.
On the other hand, the Biden administration, which has sent two aircraft carriers to the region, should take UN warnings into account and stop new civilian deaths and the complete devastation of Gaza. Supporting Israel’s security should not mean increasing the conflict or turning a blind eye to exile and massacre. Moreover, the Biden administration’s failure to blame Iran for the October 7 attack shows that it does not want the conflict to spread. However, from now on, the way to prevent the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from spreading to Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and beyond is through two-way or even multidirectional deterrence. A different version of the warnings to Hezbollah and Tehran should be issued to Tel Aviv. To issue a warning to Tel Aviv is very difficult to achieve in a region of divergent and conflicting interests, which is already prone to frequent conflicts.
This is why Turkey, which has sent the first humanitarian aid planes to Gaza, should be supported in its negotiations with both the conflicting parties and the actors that could have an impact on the crisis. It should not be forgotten that the U.S., in particular, and the West, in general, will be billed for the civilian massacres Israel has committed or will commit. The expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza will not solve Israel’s security problems—it will only exacerbate them.
Turkey’s peace diplomacy and the growing reaction to Israel
So far, the Israeli army has massacred 7,000 Palestinian civilians as it prepares for a ground operation. The heavy blockade, which does not allow humanitarian aid, has also rendered the hospitals in Gaza inoperable. Aid is piled up in Egypt and the tragedy of Gaza is deepening. The description “Gaza is drowning and it seems that the world has lost its humanity” poignantly summarizes the dire situation. It comes from the statement of Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner-general of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).
Of course, it is Israel’s heavy bombardment and blockade that is suffocating Gaza. Israel’s behavior, which turns a deaf ear to calls to “stop killing civilians and allow humanitarian aid,” is drawing increasing criticism.
The international community’s approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is changing. Israel’s past actions and its current approach, which blames all Gazans for the Hamas attack, are being criticized. Russia and China have criticized the fact that Israel’s actions are now a “collective punishment” of the Palestinians. Russian leader Putin even compared the blockade of Gaza to the siege of Leningrad during World War II. The rising criticism has also affected the rhetoric of U.S. President Biden, who has given Israel a carte blanche.
In an interview, Biden said, “It would be a mistake for Israel to invade Gaza.” He called for the protection of civilians and appointed a special envoy for humanitarian aid. Supporting Netanyahu’s policy of “completely destroying Hamas,” Biden stated that “there must be a path to the establishment of a Palestinian State.” There are several reasons for this change in the U.S. position: the growing conscientious outcry of the international community, the possibility that Israel’s ground invasion may fail, the involvement of Hezbollah in the conflict, which could trigger a regional war, and the fact that the killing of Palestinians has reached a point where Arab leaders are in trouble with their people.
