How the Middle East Became an Arena for Putin's Power Struggle with the US

A

s conflict continues to escalate in the Middle East, the role of Russia in the region becomes increasingly prominent. Anna Borshchevskaya delves into Russia’s strategy, particularly how Moscow leverages defense relationships to engage in a long-term power struggle with the West in the Middle East.

Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Middle East had become Russia’s second most important arms market, re-establishing itself as a top arms exporter globally, trailing only the United States. Despite the invasion diverting Russia’s focus, arms sales, military relationships, and paramilitary activities in the Middle East remain central to Moscow’s strategy for expanding its influence and advancing anti-Western interests.

Russia’s share of global arms exports had declined before the Ukraine invasion, mainly due to reduced imports by India, the largest purchaser of Russian weaponry. However, the Middle East remained a focal point for Russia’s arms sales. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported that military exports to the Middle East accounted for 40-50% of Russia’s total military exports, amounting to approximately $6 billion per year before the invasion.

Although sanctions and export controls constrained Russian weaponry supplies post-invasion, reports indicate that Middle East officials expressed concerns about Russia’s ability to deliver on existing contracts. However, the nature of Russian exports, primarily aircraft, engines, and missiles, mitigated the impact, with continued interest in air defense systems from countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Despite Russia’s poor military performance in Ukraine, there hasn’t been a corresponding drop in interest in Russian arms in the Middle East. The West’s sanctions may limit additional purchases, but the appeal of Russian aircraft, missiles, and air defense systems persists, particularly considering regional security challenges.

Closer military ties with Iran and Wagner

The invasion of Ukraine accelerated strategic cooperation between Russia and Iran. Reports suggest a deepening high-tech and defense partnership, with potential deliveries of advanced weaponry, including Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets and helicopters. This collaboration raises concerns for the Gulf states, potentially shifting the military balance in Iran’s favor.

Russian-Iranian and multilateral exercises, along with diplomatic efforts, underscore a trend of strategic cooperation that predates the Ukraine invasion. Russia’s active pursuit of stronger military ties with Iran aligns with its broader geopolitical objectives, challenging the US presence in the region and enhancing its influence.

Russia’s interest in the Mediterranean and attempts to gain access to naval bases in Libya and Sudan reveal its determination to project military power into the Middle East and Africa. Despite setbacks, including losses in the Black Sea Fleet, Russia persists in seeking strategic positions that could exert diplomatic and economic pressure on the European Union.

Private military companies (PMCs) like the Wagner Group play a crucial role in Russia’s endeavors. Rebranded as Afrika Korps, this paramilitary force facilitates Moscow’s foreign policy objectives. Russia’s aim to establish military bases in Libya and Sudan demonstrates its commitment to expanding influence in the region.

Taking the long view of Russia

While some may interpret Russia’s declining arms trade and sanctions on its military-industrial complex as signs of diminishing influence, such a view is myopic. Russia continues to pursue its strategic objectives in the Middle East through defense relationships, cementing access to ports, and leveraging paramilitary groups. The war in Ukraine serves as a chief military, foreign policy, and economic priority for Russia, shaping its societal and economic dynamics.

Western policymakers need to adopt a long-term perspective that accounts for Putin’s strategic objectives and the implications of the Ukraine conflict. Without sustained Western pressure, Russia may persist and potentially tip the scales decisively in its favor, diminishing America’s standing and emboldening its adversaries on the world stage.

Source: The Washington Institute