Has Turkey Shifted Away from Right-Wing Politics?

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ust a year earlier, the issue of right-wing politics had come to the forefront of discussions in Turkey. Its significant impact on the national discourse, coupled with its remarkable performance in the May 2023 elections, had put the xenophobic and anti-immigrant Victory Party in particular in the spotlight.

Under the leadership of Ümit Özdağ, the Victory Party carved out a distinct niche in Turkish politics by echoing European far-right parties, particularly through its exclusionary rhetoric against immigrants. This stance sets it apart from Turkey’s other nationalist factions. In the 2023 general election, the party’s presidential candidate, Sinan Oğan, received 5.2 percent of the national vote, while the Victory Party itself received 2.3 percent. Following these results, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who finished behind Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the first round of the presidential election, noticeably sharpened his stance on immigration, marking a departure from the more inclusive tone he had maintained throughout the campaign.

The success not only of the Victory Party, but also of the Iyi Party in alliance with the CHP, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Grand Union Party (BBP), partners of the AK Party, had sparked debates about the popularity of nationalism in Turkey. In this context, the Iyi Party, which broke its alliance with the CHP, has gradually moved away from its goal of becoming a center-right party by increasing its nationalist tone.

Total defeat for Akşener’s Iyi Party and Özdağ’s Victory Party

The local elections on March 31 were a total defeat for the Iyi Party and the Victory Party. The Iyi Party, led by Meral Akşener, who has set her sights on the presidency, had a decent record in the three previous elections in which it participated, with close to 10% of the vote. This time, however, in Istanbul, where the elections were held in a general election-like atmosphere, the party fell to 0.6 percent.

Only a year ago, the Iyi Party had won 8.2 percent in Istanbul. Moreover, the Iyi Party received only 3.7% of the national vote this time. It should also be noted that some of these votes were partly due to the high profile of some of their candidates in some provinces, such as Ordu and Nevşehir.

Contrary to the predictions of many political analysts that the Victory Party would increase its votes, its share of the vote in Istanbul fell from 2.8 percent a year ago to 1.7 percent, despite having nominated a very strong mayoral candidate. In Turkey as a whole, their share of the vote fell to 1.5%.

In other words, these two political parties in the opposition bloc lost a huge chunk of their votes, which totaled around 12% in the last election. This lackluster performance also means that the influence of the right-wing in Turkey’s political debate will decline, at least for a while.

Ümit Özdağ’s rhetoric

Ümit Özdağ’s rhetoric, which focused on anti-immigrant sentiments, did not accurately reflect the complexity of Turkey’s migration challenges, although it had some success in influencing Turkish political discourse and the 2023 election results. In areas with large immigrant populations, the vote share of the winning party was not significantly different from its performance in other regions. For example, in the 2023 elections, the Victory Party’s vote share in Esenyurt and Sultanbeyli, the two Istanbul districts with the largest immigrant populations, was 2.6 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, slightly below the provincial average.

A similar trend can be observed in other provinces and districts. Iyi Party, which is known for its hardline stance on immigrants and came in second after the Victory Party, also failed to gain additional support in districts with large immigrant populations. This suggests that support for these parties is driven more by ideological orientation than by labor market concerns.

The main opposition CHP, which refrained from intensifying its nationalist rhetoric during these elections, emerged as the main recipient of votes that might otherwise have gone to the Iyi Party. In addition, the actions of the CHP’s Istanbul mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, aimed at securing Kurdish votes in the election’s final weeks—actions that deviated significantly from nationalist talking points—did not prevent this shift of support.

Inflation

Turkey has been struggling with rising inflation for some time. Following the 2023 general election, the incumbent economic team began implementing a series of measures that signaled a period of fiscal austerity for citizens. Against this backdrop, the main opposition party, the CHP, came out on top in the March 31 local elections for the first time in nearly half a century. In his initial reaction to the election results, President Erdoğan acknowledged that the electorate’s concerns about the economy had been taken into account.

Thus, as economic grievances became more pronounced, the appeal of right-wing ideological rhetoric seemed to diminish. Voters chose to express their dissatisfaction with the government’s economic policies by supporting the most viable opposition candidate.

These results are likely to spur economic policymakers to devise solutions that mitigate the adverse effects on middle- and lower-income groups. Therefore, simplistic explanations that attribute the rise of right-wing sentiments solely to economic factors deserve a thorough reassessment.