African Geopolitics: Risks and Opportunities
African countries should take advantage of their fertile arable land and seize opportunities to become self-sufficient, reform their agriculture and increase cereal production.
Supporters gather for the the election rally of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) in Midlands province, ahead of Zimbabwean 2023 general elections held on Aug. 23, in Zimbabwe on August 19, 2023. Photo by Anadolu Images.
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he 2024 projection for Africa contains a variety of risks and opportunities. The issues that are expected to be most prominent in Africa during this year are the elections scheduled for 2024 in Africa, the security of the Sahel region, the geopolitics of the Red Sea, the risks posed by terrorist organizations across the continent, and economic growth and food security. As an important crossroads in the transformation of the global system, Africa’s role is likely to increase in 2024.
The year 2024 is projected to be a test for democracy for almost half of the world. Forty countries, 3.2 billion people, and economies with a combined GDP of $44.2 trillion will go to the polls. Africa will play a major role in this test as elections will be held in countries covering a third of Africa and affecting more than 335 million people. South Africa, Mozambique, Botswana, Namibia, Mauritius, Comoros, Rwanda, Ghana, Burkina Faso, South Sudan, Chad, Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Mauritania, Tunisia, and Algeria will hold elections in 2024. Somalia’s Somaliland will also hold elections in 2024.
South Africa, Algeria, and Ghana stand out. These countries, especially South Africa and Algeria, have stronger economies than others in Africa, and the political risk is likely to be high. On the other hand, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad are due to hold presidential elections in 2024, creating an alternative corridor of military rule in the Sahel. The current conflicts in Sudan are likely to spill over into Chad. There is also a serious risk that the ongoing conflict in Sudan will continue to affect the region and increase instability.
The social tensions, refugee movements, and possible armed conflicts that will result from the elections have the potential to increase tensions in the region. Meanwhile, the process is unlikely to bring democratic change, given the control of state institutions by candidates backed by military juntas. South Sudan is a relatively new state and a census has yet to be conducted; the country is scheduled to have the last election of 2024, but it is very likely that it will be postponed for 2025.
Security, Terrorism, and Geopolitics in Africa
The Sahel region was on the agenda in 2023 with frequent military interventions. Elections scheduled for 2024 in Sahelian countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad, which have seen military interventions in recent years, are raising regional security concerns. Developments in recent years have led to the emergence of an alternative corridor of military rule in the Sahel. At the same time, the presence of terrorist organizations in the Sahel is another risk factor that increases security concerns.
Furthermore, the departure of France, which ended its military presence in Niger at the end of 2023, is likely to increase the activities of terrorist organizations in the region. The situation also has the potential to complicate security issues further. While France’s presence has so far not reduced terrorism in the region, its absence in Niger could increase instability in the region, depending on the capabilities and capacities of local security elements.
If security gaps emerge in 2024, terrorist organizations may increase their attacks to fill these gaps, deepening regional instability. It is likely that such gaps will be seen as a window of opportunity by terrorist organizations and there is a high risk that terrorist organizations, able to expand their sphere of influence, will exploit ethnic and religious tensions to threaten civilians in the countries of the region. Conflict thus risks worsening the security situation and triggering waves of migration and displacement.
This, in turn, could lead to an increase in the frequency of attacks and access to weapons by terrorist organizations in the region in 2024. The terrorist organization Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) a faction of al-Qaeda, might increase its attacks in the Sahel and North Africa. On the other hand, the Islamic State of the Greater Sahel (ISGS) is gaining strength in Burkina Faso and Niger, and has the potential to pose a significant threat in the region. New military interventions, controlled interventions, or counter-coups in regional countries such as Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, and Cameroon, are possible developments in 2024. In short, terrorism is likely to be at the forefront in Africa in 2024. In addition to its impact on military and social security, its impact on economic security is also a risk factor.
Trade in the Lake Chad Basin and the regions of Niger, Togo, and Benin is likely to be disrupted by terrorism. The economies of several countries and regions, such as Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique in East Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda in Central Africa, Algeria in North Africa, and Côte d’Ivoire and Mali in West Africa will be threatened by terrorism. Threats to border and trade security in these regions and between countries are identified as important factors that could destabilize the region.
At the same time, the spillover of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East into the Red Sea will further increase the importance of East Africa. Due to the presence of military bases of global and regional actors with different interests, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Somaliland, which can control the entrance and exit of the Bab el-Mendeb, could come to the fore in terms of intervention in the Red Sea. The actions of the Houthis in Yemen, on the other side of the region, at the end of 2023 were an indication that the region will become more prominent in 2024.
Economic Prospects and Risks
According to the African Union Development Bank, Africa is expected to grow by 3.8%. East Africa stands out as the region with the highest expected growth: it is expected to grow at an average rate of 6.3%, almost twice as fast as the continent as a whole. However, economic growth in Africa is also expected to be relatively slow in 2024 because of food insecurity, high food inflation, and hence high food prices, as well as high energy prices and the disruption of the global supply chain, or developments in the global system and the instability they create, leading to inflationary pressures. Double-digit inflation is expected in 2024 in countries such as Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt, and Ghana.
The aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war and the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic in previous years have had a significant impact on food and energy prices. However, when the effects of global climate change are taken into account, food insecurity caused by droughts and floods, particularly in East Africa, is causing significant disruption. In addition, ongoing conflicts between states or between states and non-state (armed) actors on the continent are exacerbating the already bad situation and further destabilizing the continent. There is also a risk that the current escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will lead to further volatility in energy markets. This is likely to trigger new inflationary pressures and have a negative impact on global growth. This process may therefore have a direct impact on Africa’s growth in the medium and long term, if not in the short term.
What is more, many African countries are likely to feel the financial distress caused by excessive debt and heavy fiscal burdens. While Zambia is close to completing its debt restructuring, the process is likely to be protracted. This creates considerable economic uncertainty.
Risks and Opportunities for Food Security
Food security is one of the most important issues for African countries in 2024. African countries, which have large amounts of arable land, water resources, and labor, are food importers. In the simplest sense, if the countries in Africa that import food are unable to do so, their people will face famine and death. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, countries in Africa had problems importing grain from the warring countries; while the Black Sea Grain Initiative was in place, this was possible, but imports ended when Russia withdrew from the agreement. In fact, 25 African countries now depend on Russia and Ukraine for more than a third of their wheat imports.
Following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, it announced that it would unilaterally resume grain aid to six African countries. However, the fact that the remaining countries do not have secure access to grain is a major concern. It is expected that the Black Sea Grain Initiative will be put back on the agenda in 2024, but the repercussions of the war have been an important lesson for African countries.
African countries should take advantage of their fertile, arable land and seize opportunities to become at least self-sufficient, implement agricultural reforms, and increase their cereal production. Yet, seizing these opportunities requires more than focusing on agricultural infrastructure and reforms: it also requires comprehensive planning for various factors such as technology transfer, education, and infrastructure. Prioritizing efforts to ensure the sustainability of these factors should be a priority for African countries in 2024.
