AI, Latest Trends and Future Prospects: What's the Way Forward?

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rtificial intelligence (AI) boasts a rich and complex history that dates back to 1956, marked by a series of ebbs and flows. This dynamic field has experienced alternating cycles of progress and stagnation, known as “AI springs” and “AI winters,” respectively. AI springs are periods of heightened interest and significant breakthroughs, whereas AI winters are characterized by diminished funding and enthusiasm due to unfulfilled expectations.

Presently, we find ourselves in one of the most prolonged AI springs, which commenced in the early 1990s and has witnessed continuous evolution in AI. This sustained period of innovation and expansion raises a critical question: will this golden age of AI endure or are we approaching another winter? As we enter a new year, the uncertainty surrounding AI’s future trajectory becomes more pronounced, sparking debate and conjecture.

Although AI remains a relatively nascent and evolving technology and discussions about a potential winter persist it’s possible to project some expectations for 2024 which include more advancements, more regulatory frameworks, and more uncertainty.

Another AI Winter? Not yet!

The onset of an AI winter can be attributed to various factors, particularly following a period marked by significant achievements and heightened expectations. When looking back in history, in the beginning of ’70s and ’80s, the excitement generated by these advancements led to considerable investment from both government entities and private corporations, fueling expectations for rapid and groundbreaking developments in AI. However, several key challenges, such as the scarcity of data and computational power, hindered the full realization of these expectations, resulting in instances where AI technology has undelivered on its promised potential, leading to an AI winter.

The discrepancy between what was anticipated and what could realistically be achieved resulted in a decrease in confidence among investors and stakeholders. Consequently, both state actors and private companies began to withdraw their funding and support, leading to a downturn in AI research and development. This reduction in investment and interest effectively ushered in two AI winters, characterized by a slowdown in the field’s progress and innovation.

Today’s remarkable surge in data volume and computational power has catalyzed the emergence of advanced AI algorithms like machine learning and deep learning. This surge marks the dawn of a new era in AI, an ongoing AI spring, characterized by continuous breakthroughs. A key development is the evolution of neural network processing, which plays a crucial role in the creation and advancement of large language models (LLMs) and generative AI. These LLMs are exemplified by innovations such as, among others, ChatGPT, Bard, Ernie, and Grok. Particularly notable is the advent of ChatGPT, which has transformed AI from a niche tool, exclusive to engineers and tech experts, to a universally accessible resource. This democratization of AI has significantly broadened its impact.

The introduction of ChatGPT has enhanced public engagement with AI technology, raising awareness about its capabilities, and also facilitated AI’s integration into a wider array of fields. Numerous organizations and businesses are now incorporating generative AI into their core operations, highlighting its growing significance across various domains.

The fact that at the moment significant achievements are being made in AI and expectations are heightened has made many discuss the possibility that based on historical trends, the third AI winter is coming. The main problem here is that after crossing a milestone with the creation of ChatGPT, there are heightened expectations now about so-called artificial general intelligence (AGI) not only by tech experts but also by the general public. AGI is a type of AI that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems in a manner that is comparable to human intelligence and for many is seen as the ultimate goal in terms of AI development.

As 2023 drew to a close, the AI community buzzed with anticipation over potential breakthroughs in AGI, particularly with the mysterious OpenAI project Q* (pronounced “Q star”) and Google DeepMind’s Gemini, which is regarded as one of the most advanced AI models to date. This surge in expectation marks a significant shift in perception: AGI, once deemed a distant, 21st-century goal, is now within the realm of near-term possibility. However, it’s important to recall that such high expectations have historically led to disillusionment with AI, culminating in AI winters.

Yet, the current landscape might prevent a repeat of this cycle for two primary reasons. First, AI is now deeply integrated into our daily lives, making any stagnation in its development or waning interest highly unlikely. Its widespread application across various sectors, including finance, healthcare, and the military, ensures a continual drive to enhance and refine AI technologies. Unlike in the past, when AI was primarily the domain of tech experts, the active engagement of the general public and commercial sectors has shifted the narrative. Even if AGI remains elusive, the ongoing advancement in specialized, or narrow AI, will continue to generate excitement and innovation.

The second reason hinges on the growing influence of the commercial sector in AI development. Previously spearheaded by academia and government, AI advancements are now increasingly driven by commercial interests. With a focus on maximizing profits, the commercial sector is likely to push boundaries, striving for breakthroughs in AI capabilities. This drive extends beyond just data and computational power, which were the traditional cornerstones of AI. In response to potential future limitations, there’s a concerted effort to develop new models that require less power and data yet outperform current models. Additionally, major tech companies are investing in multimodal AI algorithms capable of processing and responding to text, images, audio, and more.

These advancements are just the tip of the iceberg in AI’s ongoing evolution. It’s clear that, while we may not achieve AGI by 2024, the year will nonetheless usher in a wave of new models and innovations. The journey of AI is far from complete; we stand on the brink of many more discoveries and developments, and the horizon of AI’s potential continues to expand, promising a future rich with technological marvels.

More Regulations Are on the Horizon

In 2023, a landmark year marked by significant advancements in AI, public awareness of AI’s potential and its associated risks notably increased. This heightened awareness ushered in a complex dilemma for governments worldwide: should they embrace and foster the development of AI technology or impose regulations that could potentially hamper its progress? Governments found themselves walking a fine line, seeking to balance the need for oversight with the risk of stifling innovation. Unregulated, AI could potentially spiral beyond control, influencing every facet of life, yet excessive regulation might impede technological advancement, leaving a country lagging in the global tech race.

During this pivotal year, we observed various stakeholders, including major tech companies, advocating for sensible regulation. Simultaneously, national governments and international organizations grappled with the pace of AI development, striving to implement appropriate regulatory frameworks. Notably, the EU enacted its comprehensive AI Act, setting a precedent in regulatory efforts. The U.S. took more measured steps, utilizing executive orders to guide responsible AI use. Similarly, China focused on specific technologies while formulating its laws and regulations, indicating a strategic approach to AI governance.

Given AI’s dynamic nature and its rapid integration into daily life, affecting safety, security, and ethical considerations, it’s anticipated that governments will endeavor to enact regulations swiftly. Looking ahead to 2024, we can expect an increase in regulatory activity, possibly even discussions around establishing global standards for AI governance. These forthcoming regulations and international dialogues will be crucial in shaping the future trajectory of AI, ensuring its responsible growth and integration into society.

In essence, discussing AI inherently involves embracing uncertainty. While we can anticipate numerous advancements, the specific trajectory and impact of these developments remain unpredictable. Nonetheless, it’s reasonable to assert that 2024 will be a year marked by significant progress in the AI domain and the AI spring is bound to continue. This surge in advancement is expected to amplify excitement and interest in AI further, and to extend its influence across various spheres of life, including social, economic, and political realms. The year 2024 is poised to be a period of technological innovation, but also a time of reflection and adaptation as we navigate the expanding footprint of AI on our world.