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ould earthquakes, including those in Turkey, lead to a new course of revivification and revitalization?

Scientists and economists alike seem to agree on the short-term negative economic impacts of natural disasters such as earthquakes. However, the longer-term reflections are not clear since the long-term growth and GDP impacts could even be positive as disaster-hit regions usually grow faster in order to catch up with other regions. National and international support further facilitate this process.

Extensive literature also demonstrates that new investments, government expenditures, and other support packages may lead to significant long-term positive effects on the GDP. For example, literature shows that while the short-term impacts of big natural disasters could be negative (-0.9 percent on average), the longer-term effects turn positive (0.6 percent on average).

During the next few months, we predict a negative effect on Turkey due to the recent disaster along its southern borders, but this will be limited and manageable. Starting from the second half of 2023, economic activity should recover and growth should once again gain momentum.

Ten percent of the Turkish economy affected

A better picture of this regeneration course is only possible through a snapshot of the regional economy. TÜİK (Turkish Statistical Institute) data shows that around 14 million people, more than 16 percent of the population, have been adversely affected by the recent earthquakes. The earthquake hit regional economy is predominantly dependent on the food, agriculture, steel production, energy, cement, textile, and clothing industries.

This eleven earthquake-stricken provinces have a relatively smaller GDP per capita, specifically about two-thirds of the national average. However, they represent a little less than one percent of the growth figure in Turkey, according to TÜİK. These GDP contributions are not expected to drop to nothing right away but should decelerate significantly.

Meanwhile, the hardest-hit Turkish provinces constitute 10 percent of the Turkish economy with Gaziantep, Adana, and Hatay being the three biggest economies of the 11. Fifteen percent of total agricultural production, 11 percent of industrial production, and 11 percent of manufacturing production are based in these 11 provinces.

All together the exports of the 11 provinces are about nine percent of the total Turkish exports while 21 percent of Turkey’s crop production, 12 percent of grain and other crops, 17 percent of farmable land, 12 percent of cattle, and 16 percent of small livestock can be found in these 11 provinces.

However, the physical construction cost alone is estimated to be as low as $15-$30 billion. This is, of course, assuming the land is provided by the Turkish Treasury or that it belongs to the existing landlords.

The dynamic Turkish economy, national and international financial support, strong fundamentals, and the economic structure of the region are all likely to mitigate the negative impacts. For example, investment bank Goldman Sachs, the World Bank and IMF have all predicted a minimum impact to the GDP and growth figures.

Goldman Sachs cites an earlier paper showing a 1.2 percent effect on the Turkish economy following the 1999 Marmara earthquake, and reasons that the impact of the latest earthquake could be much more limited. It should be kept in mind that the Marmara and Düzce earthquakes of 1999 affected an area corresponding to almost 35 percent of the Turkish GDP and 47 percent of the industrial production at the time.

Like these institutions, we, too, do not expect effects similar in scale to the 1999 earthquake. The earthquake struck southern Turkey this time is not in the industrial heartland, and therefore, economic costs, financial, fiscal, trade, inflationary and growth reflections should all be limited.

Potential positive repercussions

Despite all the negative implications, for example, the capital stock damages due to the tremblor do not show up in the national GDP; however, new (public and private) investments to rebuilt the capital stock are part of the GDP, making this a positive post-earthquake investment effect. Ta (2022) demonstrates empirical evidence that post-earthquake firm investments could increase by more than 2 percent and that the real economic growth would also be relatively higher.

There is also another line of research that discusses the positive “creative destruction” impacts following natural disasters. These destructive disasters, the literature underlines, can lead to new technologies, higher productivity, and hence much higher growth rates in the disaster-hit areas. Xiao’s (2011) “correction impact” argument, in particular, is noteworthy at this point.

In certain cases where the Keynesian multiplier of expenditures is proven relatively higher – as in dynamic economies such as Turkey – shortly after the disasters, the national GDP could actually revive rather than contract as a result of rising expenditures and the demand effect.

Natural disasters could also lead to higher labor supply and more incentive to work longer hours, in an effort to maintain the quality of life or standards of living. This, in return, would lead to higher output or production effect. The demand would also bounce back, and the resulting profit opportunities would increase production as well.

The reconstruction and new investment efforts by public institutions and the private sector can further boost economic activity. Foreign capital inflow, financial support, new public incentives, government expenditure to rebuilt houses, new infrastructure investment, and business incentives could all boost economic activity and end economic stagnation.

Experience and resilience

Turkey has already created a resilient economy and a strong infrastructure to deal with such catastrophes. The dynamic Turkish economy will likely recover from the devastation of these earthquakes quickly. And most importantly – at least theoretically – Turkey has also learned its lesson from the 1999 Marmara earthquake.

Turkey has extensive experience in dealing with natural disasters, including earthquakes. Raschky (2008) has shown that the latter matters as institutional quality and practical experiences are extremely important in mitigating the disaster costs. Earlier wildfires, floods, and other disasters as well as regional wars, climate change, and the long-standing PKK terror attacks have all been dealt with thanks to Turkey’s strong institutional structures, its dynamic economy, and strong social and human capital.

Transportation infrastructure including highways, airports, railways, and seaports that connect earthquake-hit cities to the rest of the country and to the world should be renovated soon. Bilateral and multilateral agreements with international and national financial institutions should be signed to ensure funding for regional and local producers, and the commercial entities. The most critical issue here is probably financing the regional infrastructure. Medium-to-longer-term financing options are pivotal for these types of physical investments.

Infrastructure investments, the construction sector, energy, and agricultural subsidies along with a huge external and domestic capital inflow towards this region could help boost the regional economy in the short-to-medium run. Rebuilding these cities, and reactivating the regional economy and its potential may also lead to longer-term higher multiplier effects for the national economy.

F

ollowing the 7.8 and 7.6 magnitude earthquakes that that partially devastated 10 cities in Southern Turkey on February 6, 2023, many people rushed to mobilize resources and volunteers to help victims.

Calls for donations and volunteers to travel to the affected areas were made on social media in countries such as Pakistan, Kuwait, and Malaysia, adding to the efforts by official bodies in both Turkey and abroad. People across the globe are involved in sending humanitarian aid to Turkey to express solidarity with those affected by the earthquake and alleviate their suffering.

Popular global support

In Qatar, the campaign to collect aid for the victims of the earthquake in Turkey kicked off on Wednesday, February 8, 2023. The campaign has received a lot of support from Qataris, who provided their in-kind assistance to the Turkish School and the Yunus Emre Cultural Institute in Doha, in preparation for sending it to the affected areas. Aljazeera Network, based in Doha, has provided a full-time coverage of the earthquake, sending corresponds to different parts of Turkey.

In Kazakhstan, the Turkish ambassador to Astana, Ufuk Ekici, praised the public support to help those affected by the earthquake. The campaign raised more than $90,000 in donations in a single day. Both Turkey and Kazakhstan are members of the Organization of Turkic States and the two countries have strong ties.

In Saudi Arabia, a popular campaign was launched to help those impacted by the earthquake. On the first day of the campaign, $4.5 million was raised to help the victims of the earthquake in Turkey and Syria. Saudi religious scholars have made calls urging people to donate to the campaign. The Saudi-Turkish ties have seen improvement recently, which perhaps is partly responsible for the Saudi efforts to help the victims of the earthquake.

In Oman, the Grand Mufti of the Sultanate Ahmad Al-Khalili tweeted, “We express solidarity from the bottom of our hearts with the brotherly Syrian and Turkish brothers, following the earthquake which caused much damage and took away many beloved ones.”

In a tweet, Omani journalist Hammoud Altouqi asked “[i]f there is anyone who has not donated yet.” Oman has maintained a neutral role in the region and has enjoyed good relations with Turkey over the years.

In Kuwait, the Ministry of Social Affairs launched a campaign to raise funds for the victims of the earthquake. Nasser Bin Alidan, a Kuwaiti journalist, stated, “We need to rush to raise funds to save what could be saved following the earthquake in Turkey and Syria.” The official Kuwaiti TV channels have called on Kuwaitis to donate to the campaign through NGOs. Dar Al-Sharq, which owns four major newspapers in the country, donated its royalties of one week to the victims of the earthquake.

Bahrain, the UAE, and Palestine

In Bahrain, the Royal Humanitarian Foundation called on people to donate to the national campaign to support those affected by the earthquake. The foundation urged all institutions, private sector companies, and individuals to contribute to the campaign. In response to the appeal of the Turkish Embassy in Manama, Bahrainis delivered in-kind aid for the victims of the earthquake.

The UAE Red Crescent called for joining the “Bridges of Good” campaign to support those affected in Syria and Turkey. The collection of cash and in-kind donations will continue for two weeks. Al Ansari Exchange announced the donation of $1 million to help those impacted by the earthquake.

The popular campaigns to support the victims of the earthquake in Turkey have reached different parts of the world including war-torn countries such as Palestine.

The Palestinian Ministry of Religious Affairs launched the “Help Them” campaign to provide urgent aid to the earthquake victims in Turkey and Syria. The Palestinian Minister of Religious Affairs Hatem al-Bakri stated that the campaign came under the directives of the President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas. Al-Bakri pointed out that his ministry will provide $100,000 to the campaign for the victims of the earthquake and formed a committee to arrange the arrival of donations through the Palestinian embassies in Turkey and Syria. Dozens of Palestinians have lost their lives in the earthquake in both Turkey and Syria, according to Palestinian sources.

In the Gaza Strip, dozens of orphaned children showed solidarity with those affected by the earthquake. On the sidelines of the event, children raised Turkish flags and banners which read in Arabic and Turkish, “Our people in Turkey and Syria, our condolences and prayers for you.” A number of children drew the Turkish flag on a large white canvas alongside phrases such as “Our hearts are with you.”

South and Southeast Asia

In Malaysia, $2 million was raised to help the victims of the earthquake. Kuala Lumpur also sent a 70-member team to help with rescue efforts. Malaysians have expressed their solidarity and support for Turkey, and local social media are full of calls to donate to help the victims.

Pakistan’s civil servants have donated a day of their monthly salary and ministers donated a whole month’s wage to help the earthquake victims.

Popular global efforts join Turkey’s domestic efforts

Thousands of young Turkish people headed to Istanbul Airport volunteering to participate in search and rescue missions, after they received calls from government institutions, which confirmed that they would be transported by planes to the affected areas in southern Turkey.

The Governorship of Istanbul announced it sent 122 planes, including 22 cargo planes, and two ships to the affected areas, in addition to 20,515 personnel and volunteers to the Emergency and Disaster Management (AFAD).

Istanbul Governor Ali Yerlikaya stated that 103 ambulances, medical rescue vehicles, 964 heavy machines, 22 search and rescue vehicles, 964 aid trucks, and 4,765 tents were sent to the earthquake-stricken areas, especially to Hatay Province.

Videos have been shared on social media showing thousands of people from different parts of Istanbul such as Üsküdar and Şişli lining up to help with aid efforts and sending much needed blankets and food to the ten cities hit by the earthquake.

The earthquake in Turkey has once again shown how social support networks can play a critical role in helping victims in an efficient and time-sensitive manner thanks to the involvement of individuals and NGOS on the ground, both in Turkey and abroad.

There is little doubt that climate change is to remain one of the top issues on the world agenda. As greenhouse gas emissions increase and global warming speeds up, climate change becomes more tangible and its risks turn more devastating. In recent years, almost every single corner of the world has experienced extreme weather changes. This urges politicians and decision-makers to take concrete action to tackle climate change. The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows that the world’s overall temperature has already risen 1.5^oC degrees. Today, we cannot unring the bell, but we can slow down global warming.

The Climate Crisis

The release of high amounts of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide into the atmosphere increases the air, water, and land temperatures, and causes global warming. Climate change, on the other hand, refers to the increase in temperature caused by global warming, as well as melting glaciers, changing water levels in the oceans and seas, heavy and irregular precipitation, storms, and drought. Today, most of the emissions-caused global warming is due to human actions, while the effect of natural processes is quite limited.

The Industrial Revolution jumpstarted the processes that have caused climate change. When Western countries changed their production processes, extensive use of fossil energy resources – mainly coal – occurred and human-caused greenhouse gas emissions began to rise. The amount of carbon dioxide emissions, which were close to 1 billion tons in the 1850s reached 35 billion tons in 2019. Due to high emissions, the temperature is also increasing, and the risks arising from climate change are becoming more threatening. (Graph 1)

Source: World Meteorological Organization

Increasing poverty, food insecurity, health problems, water scarcity, infrastructure damage, inequalities, destruction of ecosystems, and decrease in biodiversity led by climate change are increasingly affecting human life today. Moreover, abnormal cold and heat waves, heavy rainfall, storms and tornadoes, forest fires, and floods are becoming more frequent and affect living conditions. Preventing these risks and threats depends on slowing down global warming. Although the current situation needs governments to take collective action, the individual efforts of countries are still important.

Combating Climate Change in Turkey

According to the IPCC, which was established to inform governments about climate change, the Mediterranean belt is among the top regions that will suffer from global warming and climate change. Due to its location in the Mediterranean, Turkey is among the countries most affected and most expected to be affected by the climate crisis. The extreme weather changes, such as drought, floods, forest fires, and increasing pollution, that have been experienced in the last couple of years are directly related to global warming and reveal the need for Turkey to take immediate action.

Due to its location in the Mediterranean, Turkey is among the countries most affected and most expected to be affected by the climate crisis.

In fact, since the beginning of the 2000s, Turkey has been striving to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by developing policies, setting targets, and implementing projects in many sectors from energy to urbanism, agriculture forestry to industry. The most concrete example of this is its installed capacity of renewable energy: the country has increased its renewable power more than fourfold since 2000 and it now constitutes approximately 52 percent of Turkey’s total installed capacity. (Table 1)

Source: TEIAS

The Zero Waste project, launched in 2017 and developed to combat climate change, is one of Turkey’s pioneering projects. The main objectives of zero waste are to prevent waste, use resources efficiently, and to prevent waste generation by reviewing the processes that generate waste, or at least, to reduce it as much as possible. Since the Zero Waste project was initiated, Turkey has increased its recycling rate from 13 percent to over 20 percent in three years, thus saving 315 million kilowatt-hours of energy, 345 million cubic meters of water, and 41 million cubic meters of storage space. Most importantly, two billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions have been prevented.

Since the beginning of the 2000s, Turkey has been determined to increase its forest assets.

Forests also play a major role in combating climate change. Thanks to their carbon absorption feature, forests reduce greenhouse gas emissions by converting the carbon dioxide into the oxygen. Since the beginning of the 2000s, Turkey has been determined to increase its forest assets. Forest areas, which were about 20 million hectares in 2000, reached 23 million hectares in 2020, and areas lost as a result of fires are also largely recovered through reforestation.

Apart from its individual efforts, Turkey joins international actions to tackle climate change. The country is among the first to sign the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. Although there were some structural problems due to its status in the UNFCCC, which is the main umbrella for all climate agreements, the country overcame the problems with diplomacy and ratified both agreements. On October 7, 2021, the Paris Agreement was unanimously approved by the Grand National Assembly.

As an EU candidate and a member of the Customs Union, Ankara is also responsible for complying with the European Green Deal and the country published the Green Deal Action Plan in July 2021. Being one of the founding countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Turkey now emphasizes its need for green financing at every opportunity. Acquiring international financial aid to accelerate the efforts to combat climate change is one of the most important items on Ankara’s agenda.