Navigating the Aftermath: Turkey-Egypt Rapprochement and its Echoes in Libya

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elations between Turkey and Egypt have been particularly strained in the aftermath of the 2013 military coup against then president Mohamed Morsi, with tensions manifesting themselves in multiple areas. Positioned on opposing sides, particularly on issues in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean, the two countries have made efforts to counterbalance each other diplomatically, economically, and militarily in key conflict zones in the Middle East and Africa. Within this historical context, the 2021 normalization efforts mark a discernible shift toward a détente in this previously tense relationship.

The progression of diplomatic engagements, beginning at the level of deputy ministers and culminating in a significant institutionalized framework with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Egypt on February 14, indicates a pivotal moment of rapprochement. This newfound proximity paves the way for multifaceted opportunities for cooperation, with Libya standing out as a key area given the discord it has caused since 2014.

Key factors that elevate Libya’s importance in the foreign policy considerations of both nations include strategic interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, migration routes, and energy resources. In this sense, the potential for joint efforts promises to produce tangible results in the country which has been characterized by political volatility and a precarious security landscape.

Encouraging the implementation of electoral processes

Libya’s elections, scheduled for December 2021, were postponed due to a number of constitutional and political challenges. This development, which facilitated the formation of the government led by Fathi Bashagha with the support of the eastern-based parliament and the backing of militia leader Khalifa Haftar, has exacerbated fragmentation and conflict in the country. Currently, the election issue remains in a state of ambiguity. Ongoing efforts by the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) under the leadership of Secretary General Abdoulaye Bathily, coupled with initiatives by Western actors and legislative discussions within Libya, have failed to achieve the desired resolution. At this juncture, the involvement of Turkey and Egypt could play a key role in reducing the prevailing division.

While maintaining substantial ties with the eastern segment, Egypt has also actively engaged in diplomatic relations with the Government of National Unity (GNU), which was formed in February 2021. In parallel, Turkey initiated a diplomatic outreach to eastern Libyan actors in the same year. Moreover, prior to his visit to Libya, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced Ankara’s intention to reopen its consulate in Benghazi in a joint media briefing with Malta’s Minister for Foreign and European Affairs and Trade Ian Borg, underscoring Turkey’s commitment to reestablishing its diplomatic presence in eastern Libya. This scenario accentuates the potential and capacity of both Turkey and Egypt to mitigate the competition between Libya’s eastern and western factions or, alternatively, to play a mediating role in the reconciliation process.

On the other hand, given their different priorities and agendas, Turkey and Egypt could serve as catalysts for the establishment of peace and stability in Libya. Turkey needs a certain level of stability to protect its national interests in the Eastern Mediterranean and to maintain its commercial ties with Libya. Conversely, the Abdel Fattah al-Sisi government prioritizes the foreign exchange earnings of Egyptian workers in Libya and the potential role Egypt could play in Libya’s reconstruction phase. The Libyan dossier is also sensitive for Egypt because of the extensive land borders it shares with Libya’s eastern region and is critically important for strengthening its presence in the Eastern Mediterranean.

It should be noted that Turkey and Egypt are key actors in western and eastern Libya, respectively. The most tangible cooperation that could materialize between the two countries, specifically regarding Libya, would be their commitment to overcoming the disputes of local actors and ensuring that elections are held in a fair and transparent environment. In such a scenario, instead of power-sharing models, both countries could increase their influence in local, regional, and international organizations to support the establishment of a people-based governance system, thereby reducing the influence and control of spoilers.

Steps and potential DDR initiatives

Since 2011, Libya has witnessed a rapid proliferation of armed factions, a phenomenon largely attributed to the power vacuum and the ensuing internal conflict. These groups, which vary in size, allegiance, and ideological orientation, have become entrenched in Libya’s sociopolitical landscape, posing complex challenges to the peacebuilding process. As a result, effective implementation of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) in Libya requires a nuanced understanding of the local environment, the heterogeneity of these armed entities, and the intricate interplay of regional and international influences.

Several international organizations have demonstrated their commitment to the DDR process in Libya. In particular, the UNSMIL, led by Senegalese diplomat Abdoulaye Bathily, has been active in facilitating dialogue and providing technical assistance. The United States, the European Union, and countries such as Italy and Germany have made significant contributions through financial assistance and capacity-building initiatives. For these efforts to be truly effective, however, there must be a concerted effort to align them with Libya’s national goals and priorities.

When it comes to the Turkish-Egyptian model, it is safe to say that their consensus could produce more effective results and gain local support. Turkey’s and Egypt’s positive relations with the various factions in Libya could serve as a crucial bridge in the implementation of the DDR process. Turkey’s close ties with elements of the Libyan army and Egypt’s relationship with the so-called Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa Haftar could facilitate a basis for dialogue and reconciliation between these two factions. Particularly during the disarmament and demobilization phase, both countries have the potential to influence actors on the ground to increase efforts to disarm and disband military units.

The spectrum of DDR efforts currently underway in Libya demonstrates a range of methodologies. These initiatives range from basic disarmament and demobilization activities to more holistic programs that include psychosocial support, vocational training, and the facilitation of employment opportunities for ex-combatants. In the reintegration phase, Turkey and Egypt have the potential to promote social cohesion and create jobs in Libya through economic and social development projects.

For example, support for infrastructure and education projects as part of Libya’s reconstruction could facilitate the reintegration of ex-combatants into civilian life. Regarding the transition to a unified army in Libya, the sharing of military and security expertise by Turkey and Egypt is expected to contribute to the modernization and professionalization of Libya’s defense and security sectors. This is expected to strengthen central authority in Libya and help achieve security and stability throughout the country.

As two actors involved in the process since the beginning of the Libyan file, Turkey and Egypt have supported peace and stability in Libya according to their own priorities and agendas. The current rapprochement between the two countries, which is different from similar initiatives in the past, could lead to a more cautious approach and consensus on Libya. In this context, addressing the issue of elections and overcoming the security challenges posed by militias are priorities, while the establishment of a unified army and the implementation of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) programs remain crucial.