Will the Niger Crisis Pose a Threat to Turkey in Africa?
There is a potential for Turkey to become a more valuable actor in the region by providing diplomatic solutions and facilitating support in countries where it is already active.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) welcomes President of Nigeria Muhammadu Buhari (L) during the 3rd Turkey-Africa Partnership Summit in Istanbul, Turkey on December 18, 2021. Photo by Anadolu Images.
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he coup in Niger has the potential to create significant problems for regional security. Sharing a 1,500-kilometer border with Nigeria, Niger also neighbors Benin. At the intersection of these three countries, there is the presence of the terrorist organization Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which might seek to fill the power vacuum that may emerge in the region.
The existence of such a risk has the potential to affect North and West Africa, and could pose a threat to Turkey’s interests in the region, especially in Libya. These risks could also affect Turkey’s trade with Africa, which has been developing and gaining momentum in recent years.
Turkey’s increasing engagement in the region
Turkey’s trade with the African continent is estimated at about $35 billion with Sub-Saharan African countries accounting for $12.9 billion. Moreover, according to TurkStat data, Turkey’s trade with West Africa is estimated at $6.5 billion and $4.1 billion with the Sahel region, which includes Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, and Eritrea.
Graph 1 and Graph 2 show the details of this trade. With the exception of Eritrea and Sudan, all countries are in the West African sub-regional system, while the countries shown in orange are also in the Sahel sub-regional system.
West Africa and the Sahel region also account for 18.5% and 11.7% of Africa’s overall trade volume, respectively. In other words, as seen in Graph 2, Turkey’s trade volume with the region shows a significant rise, when 2013 TurkStat data are taken into account. In 2013, Turkey’s total foreign trade volume with Africa was $21.5 billion.
The latest figures show that Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 32% of Turkey’s trade volume across Africa. However, in Sub-Saharan Africa, the share of trade with West Africa is 34.7% with a trade volume of $2.4 billion and the share of trade with the Sahel region countries is 18.8% with a trade volume of $1.3 billion. In 2013, West Africa and the Sahel region accounted for 11.1% and 6% of Africa’s overall trade volume, respectively.
This economic data shows Turkey’s growing economic presence in the Sahel and West Africa over the last decade. In addition, Turkey’s political and military influence in the region has also increased in recent years. In order to ensure that the increasing trade volume does not decline and that Turkey’s strategic interests in the regional and other subregional systems do not affect Ankara’s security, it is of utmost importance for Turkey to contribute to the resolution of crises in the region without delay.
Regional security risks and challenges for Turkey
The effects of the coup d’état that took place in Niger at the end of July, which is in a strategic position to affect all regional dynamics, will occupy the agenda for a long time. Therefore, not only the Sahel and West Africa but also Libya and Algeria in North Africa, where Turkey has strategic interests, have the potential to be affected by the crisis in Niger.
Taking a broader perspective, the presence of al-Qaeda and DAESH-linked terrorist organizations in the region is a dire reality. If the environment gives terrorist organizations the opportunity to increase their presence, their influence may increase in the east of the Sahel.
In such a scenario, the al-Shabaab terrorist organization, which is an extension of al-Qaeda in Somalia in East Africa, and other terrorist organizations have the potential to cooperate and cause major instability beyond the Sahel region.
Respecting the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries and the principle of “African solutions to African problems,” Turkey can take diplomatic and cooperation initiatives to mitigate the impact of the crisis in Niger and support the maintenance of regional stability.
Especially in the face of the junta’s negative stance towards the return to power of ousted president Mohamed Bazoum, Turkey is capable to take steps to ensure a fair and transparent election, promote social reconciliation, and resolve the crisis as quickly as possible through diplomatic means.
In addition to its support to the governments of various countries in Africa in the fight against terrorism, Turkey can share its experiences and help the countries in the Sahel region improve their capacities, specifically in the field of security cooperation. This is essential for Turkey to protect its strategic interests, first in the context of West Africa and the Sahel region, and then in Libya.
Turkey has many investments in the countries of the region. For instance, two companies that stand out in Turkey’s commercial activities in West Africa and the Sahel are Karpowership, which carries out energy activities in West African countries such as Senegal, Gambia, Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, Ghana, and Gambia; and SUMMA, which carries out large-scale infrastructure and superstructure projects in West African countries such as Niger, Senegal, and Sierra Leone.
Turkey’s continued presence in the region is important primarily for its commercial interests which are not only valuable for Turkish companies, but also play an important role in supporting the development efforts of the countries in the region.
Turkey’s defense and security cooperation with the region
In recent years, Turkey has been increasing its presence in the region with defense industry products alongside economic activities. In addition to sharing experience in the fight against terrorism, the transfer of effective and deterrent defense industry tools helps to increase the security and military capacities of regional countries.
Turkish Defense Industry (TSS) products are preferred by countries in the region, especially after 2018. In line with the information obtained from open sources, Turkey cooperates with 11 countries in the region in the field of defense industry. The contribution of TSS products stand out with their high technology and modern capabilities.
In addition, these products have the potential to provide regional countries with a more effective defense fighting capacity, primarily in the fight against terrorism, by offering solutions tailored to their needs.
Recent developments in the Sahel region risk affecting Turkey’s strategic interests, and it, therefore, must take advantage of its existing economic, diplomatic, and military/security cooperation and partnerships to seize new opportunities as an alternative in the current competitive environment. Partnerships developed with countries in the region over security equipment stand out as important steps to strengthen not only military but also economic and strategic ties.
There is a potential for Turkey to become a more valuable actor in the region by providing diplomatic solutions and facilitating support in countries where it is already active. But first Turkey needs to monitor carefully the emerging risks in Libya, which could suffer from spillover effects if the Niger crisis takes a turn for the worse.
