B
razil’s presidential election is heading to a second round after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro emerged as the leading candidates in a closely watched and deeply polarized first-round vote.
Brazil’s electoral court confirmed that the two candidates will advance to the October 25 runoff after neither secured the majority required to win the presidency outright. With nearly 99 percent of votes counted, Bolsonaro had about 47 percent of valid votes, compared with 44.9 percent for Lula. The result sets up another major confrontation between the political forces associated with Lula and the Bolsonaro family.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive presidential term after a political career spanning almost five decades. Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and is seeking to return his father’s right-wing political movement to power. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.
The election takes place as Brazilians confront concerns over crime and the cost of living, while relations between Brazil and the United States have become increasingly tense. The outcome is also being closely watched across Latin America, where a series of recent elections has strengthened right-wing political forces.
The first-round result was notable because it differed from expectations in several opinion polls. While most surveys had predicted a runoff, they generally placed Lula ahead of Bolsonaro in the first round.
Instead, Bolsonaro finished about two percentage points ahead of the incumbent president. The unexpected result has raised questions about why polling organizations underestimated his support and highlighted the strength of the left-wing electorate.
Bolsonaro said after the vote that the result demonstrated that Brazilians wanted change. Analysts cited by Reuters suggested that he may have benefited from protest votes from voters who preferred other candidates but regarded defeating Lula as their immediate priority.
Political analyst Rafael Favetti said the protest vote could help Bolsonaro in the runoff but might also limit his ability to expand his support because some voters who might otherwise have shifted to him later had already supported him in the first round.
Lula acknowledged that the first-round result had been unexpected. He said he had believed he could win outright but vowed to strengthen his campaign before the runoff, describing the next stage of the contest as “extra time.”
The runoff is expected to be closely contested. Voters who supported the other 10 candidates in the first round will now become crucial to both campaigns. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who together won about 5.3 million votes, have previously said they would not endorse either candidate.
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Bolsonaro’s strong performance was part of a broader electoral advance for Brazil’s right. Right-wing parties, led by Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, were performing strongly in both chambers of Congress, with the PL on track to become the largest force in the Chamber of Deputies while also gaining ground in the Senate.
Members of the Bolsonaro family also secured important victories. Michelle Bolsonaro, a former first lady and Flavio’s stepmother, won a Senate seat in the Federal District, while Carlos Bolsonaro, Flavio’s brother, was elected to the Senate in Santa Catarina.
The results indicate that the political movement built around Jair Bolsonaro remains a powerful electoral force despite his exclusion from the presidential race. Andre Pagliarini, a historian and international studies professor, said the performance of far-right legislative candidates suggested deeper popular support for the Bolsonaro political project than many observers had expected.
The congressional results could have significant consequences after the presidential vote. Conservative lawmakers already dominate both houses, and a stronger right-wing presence could make it more difficult for Lula to advance his legislative agenda if he wins another term.
For Bolsonaro, meanwhile, a presidential victory could provide greater political space to pursue his priorities, including his pledge to seek an amnesty for his father.
With three weeks remaining before the October 25 runoff, Brazil now faces another closely fought contest between Lula and the Bolsonaro political camp, with the balance of power in Congress adding another layer to an election that could shape the country’s political direction for years to come.
(Source: Aljazeera English)
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