Is an Azerbaijani-Armenians Agreement Imminent?

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zerbaijan achieved a historic victory in the Second Karabakh War. In fact, for the first time in modern times, it gained the opportunity to dominate completely the lands of Karabakh and the entirety of Azerbaijani lands. In order to understand Azerbaijan’s victory better, one can refer to Atatürk’s and his comrades’ victory in the War of Independence; in a way, Azerbaijan won its own War of Independence and secured its future.

To understand this process, a brief historical background and an introduction of certain concepts is necessary. The most decisive outcome of modernity for states was undoubtedly sovereignty, and nations have played the role of cement in the consolidation of sovereignty. In this sense, the end of the 18^th century and the whole 19^th century gave birth to a state model that appeared to make Machiavelli’s dreams come true.

However, modernity has not produced the same results for all nations. Although the right to self-determination, in a sense a universal achievement of modernity, is expressed as a right for every nation, the colonial peoples had to struggle in a different way. The Treaty of Turkmenchay (1828), signed as a result of the war between Iran and Tsarist Russia, not only divided Azerbaijan’s lands, but also initiated the colonial process that ended its sovereignty over its remaining lands (today’s Republic of Azerbaijan).

It is, thus, possible to look for the beginning of the historical root of the Karabakh problem in Turkmenchay, which went down in history as the first modern agreement that determined the modern order in the Caucasus. This agreement included the Azerbaijani Turks, the main power in the region, but not all the people of the region? Were the Azerbaijani Turks not part of the people of the region. In short, the liberation of the occupied part of Karabakh and the redefinition of the status of Karabakh in the name of the Azerbaijani nation became a matter of national sovereignty.

On the other hand, after the occupation of the Republic of Azerbaijan, which could not be transformed into a full-fledged state, by the Red Army forces, the Soviet Union established its dominance there and in the entire geography, and began to build its own order. Nagorno-Karabakh, the first modern status of Karabakh, was created in 1923, and was intended to serve the system built by the Soviets within the framework of Homo Sovieticus.

Therefore, the Soviets made the historical dominance of the Azerbaijani Turks over Karabakh problematic, and, in this way, the foundations were laid for the conflict that was to take place in the post-Soviet period. In order to make the Soviet system work in the South Caucasus, the Azerbaijani Turks, who have historically been the dominant and influential group in the region, had to be dealt with.

The bipolar system that emerged after World War II allowed Soviet policy to continue. However, the end of the Cold War, or the “end of history” as Francis Fukuyama claimed, began to bring about the end of the Soviet strategy. In short, as a result of the 44-day Second Karabakh War, it became clear that the consequences of the uprising of the late 1980s and the subsequent First Karabakh War were unsustainable.

Diplomacy and capacity utilization

All diplomatic negotiations following the ceasefire agreement that ended the First Karabakh War, signed on the initiative of Heydar Aliyev, ended in failure. From today’s perspective, it is understood that the Second Karabakh War was a necessity.

The war should be evaluated as the result of a multidimensional process and development. First, the Azerbaijani state had to acquire the knowledge of conducting and managing a war. The oil agreement, signed on the initiative of Aliyev immediately after the ceasefire agreement (1994), became the main factor of Azerbaijan’s economic development. Azerbaijan did not spend the years of occupation only in fruitless diplomatic negotiations: improving the capacity of the Azerbaijani state was one of the central government’s main goals.

On the other hand, Turkey, which has defined a new strategy for the 21^st century, began to carve out a place for itself as a new center in the regional geopolitical equation that is changing over time. The presence of a militarily, politically, and economically active Turkey in the region has also strengthened Azerbaijan’s power in the long run. Azerbaijan made better use of its capacity, won the Second Karabakh War, and saved its legitimate lands, recognized by international law, from occupation. This gave it the opportunity to become a fully fledged sovereign state on its legitimate territory. With the local anti-terrorist operation carried out in September 2023, the Azerbaijani state removed all occupying forces from the occupied territory and closed the sovereignty gap.

It should be remembered that the result of the First Karabakh War was an occupation contrary to international law. In the Second Karabakh War, the Azerbaijani state carried out its military operation in order to save its lands, which are recognized by the international law, from occupation. In other words, in spite of all the difficulties, adherence to international law brings justified success and victory in the long run.

After the Second Karabakh War, President Aliyev stated that the period of military conflict and war between Armenia and Azerbaijan has ended and the phase of diplomacy has begun. However, the modern order of Karabakh and even the region was built during the Tsarist and Soviet colonial periods, and therefore, despite the victory, it was impossible to sign an agreement immediately; in the modern process, the status of Karabakh was determined by the Soviets during the colonial process.

More important than an agreement, Azerbaijan and Turkey signed the Shusha Declaration, which was the first agreement signed between states in the region in the 21^st century. It was important to deepen Azerbaijani-Turkish relations, which had been tested during the war, especially in the military dimension. The changing economic and political uncertainties in Eurasia, necessitate that the military, technological, and economic dimensions be taken into account, and bring to the fore the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), which was proclaimed in Istanbul on the basis of the Nakhchivan Agreement of 2008.

The principles and institutions of the 20^th century, especially those built after World War II, are now being abandoned. In a sense, the 21^st century is giving birth to itself. In this sense, the effect of the OTS must be taken into account in the order that will emerge in the South Caucasus after the Second Karabakh War.