While Turkey is focusing on the local elections that will take place on March 31, certain foreign policy developments are continuing to dominate Turkey’s agenda. Syria is still at the center of Turkey’s foreign policy agenda. However, it is best to lower the expectations for Syria particularly in the context of the U.S. withdrawal. Every player in Syria has its account, priorities and game plan. Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the U.S. are the main actors that can make an impact on the ground, but their agendas and priorities certainly differ from one another, not only towards some specific issues in Syria but also against each other. Turkey’s position is exceptional in this regard as Ankara has to deal with two major interrelated problems, simultaneously.

First and foremost, the PKK issue is still the primary concern of Turkey. Ankara was able to eliminate the PKK threat through Operation Olive Branch and Euphrates Shield in the western part of the river. However, the threat emanating from the PKK is remaining in the eastern part of the river. There is a clear strategic objective of Turkey to eliminate the PKK’s military, political, economic and even territorial power. However, the problem for Turkey is that the PKK is not only an issue between Turkey and the PKK, rather it has been gradually becoming a geopolitical antagonism between Ankara and Washington. Therefore, each time Turkey has to consider its strategy of engagement against the PKK in Syria by taking into consideration the U.S.

The problem for Turkey is that the PKK is not only an issue between Turkey and the PKK, but rather a geopolitical antagonism between Ankara and Washington.    

More than two months after the withdrawal decision, it is still unclear what kind of order will be established in the east of Euphrates after the U.S. withdrawal. There are three ways for the United States. The first one is to make a deal between Turkey and the U.S. on establishing a safe zone alongside Turkey’s Syrian border under the control of the Turkish Military Force and Turkey-backed military groups. For sure, the U.S. wants to establish a mechanism to ensure that the PYD-YPG is protected by a small international protection force by creating other safe areas where the PYD can survive. With this plan, the U.S. wants to satisfy both Turkey and the PYD at the same time. One of the primary strategic goals of the U.S. in this context is to promote a “dialogue” between Turkey and the PKK if Turkey accepts a safe zone in which the PYD will be protected, as well. However, it is well known that this offer is not accepted by Turkey. 

The second way for the U.S. is to establish an order based on SDG areas outside the safe zone. It doesn’t have to be under the name of SDG. This order consists of three pillars: political, economic and military (security). In other words, in the long term, the U.S. wants to establish a governmental structure consisting of Kurdish, Arab and other ethnic elements with a strong autonomy. The only thing that the U.S. cannot trust in the long term is the Arab community. For the U.S. it is not clear whether the Arab communities, especially the major tribal ones, will accept to share the power with PYD-YPG, as it would make them lose their geopolitical superiority over the Turkish-initiated safe zone.

The U.S.’s core objective in the negotiation process is not to withdraw from Syria. In fact, the U.S. wants to appease Turkey via the negotiation process to gain time.

The third way can be more complicated and costly for the U.S. A group from the Pentagon and State Department think that the YPG should completely eliminate Turkey’s safe zone proposal by coming to terms with the Syrian regime in one way or another. For this purpose, the U.S. is carrying out negotiations with both Russia and the Syrian regime. So, the essence of the work is that on the one hand, the United States is carrying out an intense negotiation process with Ankara while keeping in touch with all the other actors involved in the case. The fact that CENTCOM’s top official, Votel, has been communicating with Mazlum Kobani, one of Turkey’s red-listed PKK’s ground leaders, proves this point.

Of course, in such a scenario, it is quite clear that Russia constitutes the main target actor to be negotiated. However, it is hardly possible for Russia to trust a process carried out by the U.S. On the other hand, Turkey is reluctant when it comes to U.S. premises. The fact that the negotiations on the safe zone has been taking more time than wanted is putting pressure on Turkey instead of enabling the country to save time.

Conditions in Northern Syria may force Turkey to follow “first act then deal” option.

The U.S.’s core objective in the negotiation process is not to withdraw from Syria after forming a safe zone as Turkey wishes. In fact, the U.S. wants to appease Turkey via the negotiation process to gain time. In this case, Turkey needs to create its own options. Turkey may be forced to create a ground plan for itself eventually, which makes the “first act then deal” mindset one of Turkey’s policy options. Besides that, the idea of ​​including Russia in the process towards the east of the Euphrates should not be underestimated. This also seems to be related to the process in Idlib soon.

For Idlib, the formula is simple: strengthen moderate opposition, oppress and persuade HTS for a solution. At the end of the day, no other state but Turkey has serious plans for the east of the Euphrates.

These two issues are directly impacting Turkey’s policy options. How the Idlib issue is going to be resolved remains unclear despite that Turkey has gained time via the Sochi Summit. Idlib offers significant opportunities for Turkey, but also contains the risk of turning into a problem. First of all, Russia is creating pressure on Turkey through Idlib. Moscow’s “either resolve it or consent to an operation” policy has impacted Turkey’s negotiation process with the U.S. unavoidably.

In sum, Turkey can provide rapid progress in both if it can create a de facto situation both in Idlib and in the east of the Euphrates by taking more initiative and producing authentic solutions. For Idlib, the formula is actually to strengthen moderate opposition, oppress and persuade HTS for a solution process! At the end of the day, it is clear that no other state but Turkey has serious plans for the east of the Euphrates.

Before a trilateral meeting, Putin acknowledged his Turkish and Iranian counterparts’ support in preventing the Syria’s disintegration. “It would not have been possible to end the military process in Syria without the roles of Turkish and Iranian leaders. With the support of Turkey and Iran, the disintegration of Syria was prevented,” he said.

The talks lasted two hours, with Putin saying that they were detailed and included all aspects of the Syrian settlement.

In a joint statement at the summit, three guarantors declared that they would continue to cooperate for the sake of reducing violence in Syria. The three presidents also reiterated their strong commitment to supporting the independence, unity and territorial integrity of Syria.

The guarantor countries also emphasized the confidence-building measures in order to speed up the search for political solutions in Syria.

Fast, secure and continuous humanitarian aid; release of detainees and identification of missing persons were pointed out as the measures necessary.

Turkey and Russia, together with Iran, are the guarantor countries that brokered a cease-fire in Syria in December 2016, leading to the Astana talks, which are running parallel to the Geneva talks for peace in Syria.

Erdogan

President Erdogan said “The world has witnessed the positive results of establishing a close working environment between Turkey, Russia, and Iran on the Syrian issue.”

The talks in Astana, Kazakhstan are the “best example” of this, the Turkish leader added.

He pointed out; “Exclusion of terrorist elements — that target both Syrian political unity and territorial integrity and our country – from the process, will be among Turkey’s priorities.”

Turkey is stating from the beginning that it is against any form of “problem-solving” with the role of terrorist groups PYD, YPG which are PKK’s Syrian affiliates.

Erdogan repeated that Turkey cannot share a platform with any terrorist organization that poses a threat to its national security.

Erdogan referred to the Geneva talks under the auspices of the UN, and said the National Dialogue Congress would contribute to the Geneva process.

Putin

President Putin – claiming that the summit was a means to strengthen the territorial integrity of Syria – said the Astana process prevents the division of the country which is now moving towards a “new phase of political solution” and added that he sees the possibility of an end of the war.

He also expressed his gratitude to the Turkish and Iranian leaders for welcoming the idea of holding the Syrian National Dialogue Congress regarding the solution of the Syrian crisis.

“The presidents of Iran and Turkey supported the initiative to convene an all-Syrian forum-congress of the national dialogue in Syria. We agreed to hold this important event at the proper level and ensure the participation of representatives of different sectors of Syrian society,” Putin said after the talks in Sochi on Wednesday.

Rouhani

President Rouhani said “We are pleased to see that the three countries have agreed on Syria’s territorial integrity, independence and unity, and we are in close cooperation to ensure peace and stability in Syria.”

He said that the trilateral meeting is significant in opening up a “new prospect” to settle the situation in Syria.

Rouhani also emphasized that Iran is serious in its fight against international terrorism and is ready to offer help to other countries.

He also reiterated Iranian support for Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, saying there should be no foreign intervention in Syria’s internal affairs “without the consent of the legitimate government of Syria.”

Putin-Assad met on Monday

Before the summit with the Turkish and Iranian presidents, Putin met Assad who came to Sochi with an unannounced visit on Monday.

Putin informed Erdogan and Rouhani about the results of his 4 hour long meeting with Assad and about the regime’s “readiness to carry out constitutional reform and stage a free, UN-supervised election.”

Following the talks with Assad, the Russian President held phone conversations with the heads of the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which made analysts suggest that the violent conflict in Syria could be coming to an end.

Syria has been locked in a civil war since early 2011, when the Assad regime cracked down on pro-democracy protests with unexpected ferocity. This led to the military conflict between the Syrian opposition groups and the Assad regime over the war-torn country’s territory.

Now, in its seventh year, the war in Syria has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million, causing a refugee crisis all over Europe and its neighboring countries.

*Written by Suna Nur Sarihan. 

Ahead of the Syria conference to be held in Russia’s Sochi city Turkish, Russian and Iranian foreign ministers met on Sunday in Turkey’s Mediterranean city of Antalya.

According to the reports that emerged from the Turkish foreign ministry, the purpose of Sunday’s meeting of the three foreign ministers, Mevlut Cavusoglu (Turkey) Sergey Lavrov (Russia) and Javad Zarif (Iran) was to discuss a range of topics that may come up during the Sochi conference. The reports indicated that the purpose of the summit was to evaluate the steps that the three guarantor countries Turkey, Iran and Russia took in the past with regard to Syria and steps that needed to be taken in the future.

The meeting is significant amid the reports that Russia was also going to invite PYD to participate in the conference – which is intolerable for Turkey. The move to invite PYD seemed an unnecessary hitch that has the potential to trouble the warming relations between Turkey and Russia. Cavusoglu stated that the participation of the terrorist group in the Syrian National Dialogue Congress would be unacceptable for Turkey. “Our sensitivity about PYD/YPG is obvious,” he added.

While describing aims and benefits of ongoing cooperation among Turkey, Iran and Russia, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said, “With the Astana process, we have come a long way with Russia, especially in terms of the establishment of peace on the field and forming de-escalation zones. The situation on the field is much better compared to last year,” Cavusoglu said.

Ever since the cease-fire was brokered in December 2016 by Turkey, Iran and Russia, which led to the talks in Astana, Kazakhstan, the three contending nations have seen their objectives converge in Syria. The talks are being held in parallel to UN-backed discussions in Geneva to find a political solution to the six-year conflict.

Children with no human rights

Meanwhile, ahead of the Universal Children’s Day to be marked on November 20, an international rights organization has noted that millions of children in war-weary Syria continue to be deprived of their most basic rights, which include education, health, and protection against violence.

International Refugee Rights Organization deputy chairman Abdullah Resul Demir said, “Children are the ones mostly affected by this war. Because they are perhaps the most needy and vulnerable beings on the earth.”

He regretted that children’s rights were defined by international law, but when it comes to Syrian children “all international laws and humanity fail.”

Referring to UNICEF’s report of September 2017 Demir said a total of 8.5 million children – 6 million in Syria, 2.5 million out of the country – were affected by the conflict. The ratio of 8 to 10 Syrian children are “children of war” and 1.7 million live in the most intense areas of the conflict, while 2 million cannot go to school.

*Written by Waseem Ahad. 

The U.S. government continues to support the People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria under the pretext of destroying Daesh. The U.S. provides various military capabilities to the terrorist group that include heavy weapons.

Meanwhile, NATO-ally Turkey has strongly opposed the U.S. engagement with the YPG, the Syrian branch of the PKK, which is listed by Turkey, EU, and the US a terrorist organization.

President Erdoğan recently expressed discontent about providing weapon to the terrorist organization, claiming; “Who can guarantee that these heavy weapons will not be used against Turkey tomorrow?”

While these debates are ongoing, a Turkish newspaper reported on Monday that the U.S. set up PYD military quarters in Faysh Khabur.

According to the newspaper, the U.S. allowed the PYD to establish a new camp in Faysh Khabur – at the border gate between the regional government of northern Iraq and Syria, when the Iraqi army took action to provide control over all border territories in the country.

Faysh Khabur remains the only gate open to Syria for the regional administration in northern Iraq after Iraqi forces recently took control of the Rabia Border Gate between Iraq and Syria.

Amid all developments, it was announced that the Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım is to visit Vice President Mike Pence on Tuesday in the White House. It was stated that U.S. assistance to the PYD was one of the headlines on Yıldırım’s agenda, along with other critical issues including the refugee crisis and the current visa row. The two will be discussing bilateral political, economic and military ties and also regional issues in Syria and Iraq.

Russia postpones Sochi initiative

In addition to the U.S., already party to the Astana talks, the Russian administration has also brought the YPG to the political forefront.

Russia announced late last month that on November 18 a meeting will be held in the Black Sea resort of Sochi to discuss Syria’s future constitution with the participation of 33 Syrian groups and political parties, including Kurdish groups and anti-Assad rebel factions.

Turkey strongly objected to the invitation of the PYD and YPG, and Presidential Spokesman Ibrahim Kalin announced on Sunday that Russia has postponed the meeting they planned to organize under the name of Syrian Peoples Congress in Sochi as a result of Turkey’s objection and that YPG will not be invited to the upcoming congress.

At the beginning of 2017, Russian specialists submitted a draft of the new Syrian constitution. While this document was intended to trigger discussions, nothing has recently been reported about a movement in this direction. Determined to start work in this area, Russia has initiated a new conference to draft a new constitution for Syria. The location of this conference – Sochi, Russia – will make it possible to isolate this assembly from foreign influence, especially from the west. With the Sochi initiative, Russia also wants to expand its political role in Syria by outlining Turkey and Iran.

On Tuesday, Russia invited 33 Syrian groups and political parties to a “Syrian Congress on National Dialogue,” also referred to as the “People’s Conference,” which should have taken place on 18 November in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.

Invited groups and political parties include Popular Front for Liberation and Change, The National Coordinating Body for the Forces for Democratic Change, People’s Party, The Popular Will Party, Syrian National Youth Party for Justice and Development, Solidarity Party, The National Congress Party for Secular Syria, Alternative Current for Syria; High Committee for Negotiations, Stream of “Kamh,” The “Southern Front,” The Syrian National Council Party, The National Coalition for Revolution and Opposition Forces, The Democratic Union Party (Al-Qamishli), The Democratic Union Party (Kubani /Ain Al Arab), “Syrian Union Party,” The Kurdish National Council, Movement (together) for a Free and Democratic Syria, “Syrian State Building Current,” Syrian Democratic People’s Party (Damascus), “Syria Al Watan” Party, National Congress Party, Arab Baath Socialist Party, The Social Democratic Party, Coalition of Forces of Peaceful Change, Syrian National Youth Party, Council of Elders, Syrian National Democratic Rally, Syrian National Social Party, Left-center Democratic Association of the Assyrians “Metacas Party,” The Arab Democratic Union Party, “Arab Socialist Union” Party and the Socialist Unionist Party.

The initiative taken by Russia excludes the armed Syrian opposition, which, while a party to the Astana talks, strongly opposes this move taken by Moscow. The High Committee on Negotiations, composed of the Exile Opposition, armed groups and independent personalities formed at the Riyadh Conferences, also stated that they won’t participate in the Sochi Conference. Many other Syrian opposition bodies also rejected this initiative. As Fatih Hassoun, head of the Tahrir Homs Brigade, which operates in the Rastan pocket in North Homs and member of the Astana delegation team said in a private conversation: “One of the results of the Astana Conferences […], and we made sure that the results of the Astana Conferences would not be the result of the so-called Conference of Peoples in Humeimin or Sochi, which was strongly promoted by Russia.”

On the other hand, this initiative also includes the PYD/YPG – the Syrian branch of the PKK, which is accepted as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the European Union and the US. While the US and the European Union deny links between the YPG and the PKK, Russia does not even list the PKK as a terrorist organization. Turkey, which fears a “terror corridor” operating on its southern borders, has strongly opposed Russia’s invitation for the YPG to join the Sochi conference.

Spokesman of the Turkish President, Ibrahim Kalın expressed Ankara’s opposition to the Russian invitation of the Syrian Democratic Union (PYD) to participate in the Syrian National Dialogue Congress. Talking to reporters, Kalın said: “We do not see the issue in Kurds being invited to the Congress of the Syrian people as representatives of the Syrian population, but PYD is a terrorist organization. Giving them space on the negotiations platform is unacceptable, we shall never agree to this.” Turkey’s rejection was no surprise, but why did Russia invite the PYD/YPG?

While in principle Russia is attempting to find a solution through the Astana talks with Turkey and Iran, Moscow also wants to use the YPG card to secure its political and military gains in Syria. Thus, while on one hand Russia is using the Turkish threat against the YPG for political and military gains, the Putin administration is also attempting to use the YPG towards Turkey in order to receive concessions from Ankara. For example, following negotiations with the YPG, Russia has succeeded in gaining exclusive access to some of the military facilities around Afrin, including the Mennaq military airport.

Russia has also established a military presence in Tel Rifaat, which, with the help of de-facto Russian air support, was captured by the YPG from Syrian opposition factions. Russia is not only present militarily, but is also actively recruiting fighters for the 5th Legion – a military body announced by the Assad regime on 22 November 2016. This legion’s commanding power directly follows Russian orders. Many fighters of the Syrian Democratic Union led by the YPG have deserted from the group and have joined the 5th legion. It is reported from sources that Russia pays these deserted recruits in Tel Rifaat $400 per month. This is four times higher than the salaries of YPG militants in Afrin.

In spite of these developments, it must be noted that Russian relations with the YPG are complicated. While the YPG in the Sheikh Maqsoud district of Aleppo is enjoying self-governance, when the Turkey-backed Syrian rebel factions wanted to launch an attack on the YPG in the Manbij region, it was the Russians who brokered an agreement between the Assad regime and the YPG in order to protect the group. The agreement included both a military presence of Russia and the Assad regime in the Manbij region and control of an administrative building in return for protection against military operations conducted by Syrian rebels.

Turkey and Russia have made significant progress in the Astana talks and in accordance with this process, Turkey has deployed its forces to southern Afrin. While Turkey is besieging the YPG on multiple surfaces, regime-held areas in Aleppo are still providing supplies to Afrin. Within this, Russia has expanded its military presence in the area. Since Turkey’s main concern has been to dismantle the YPG from northern Syria, one wonders how Russia will appease Ankara. Moscow is playing a multi-level game in order to increase its influence in Syria: while Russia wants to limit Turkey, the Putin administration is also trying to limit the Americans in Syria with the help of Turkey. Russia also knows that a solution in Syria without Turkey is not possible. Therefore, to avoid a dominant Turkish policy in Syria, Russia doesn’t want to lose the YPG card, as if necessary, Russia will not be reluctant to use the YPG against Turkish interests in Syria. It should be remembered that the PYD still maintains a political office in Moscow.

Cooperation with the YPG is also a Russian strategy in regards to its rivalry with the US. While the US controls the YPG east of the Euphrates River, Russia intends to control the group west of the Euphrates River. More, as noted in the draft constitution that was written by Russian specialists at the beginning of this year, Russia also holds a positive outlook on the idea of an autonomous YPG region in northern Syria. Thus, while the US has provided, and continues to provide, immense military support to the YPG, Moscow is the main political power which has the needed influence over the Assad regime to grant the YPG an autonomous region in northern Syria. Therefore, Russia wants to drive the US out of Syria by winning the sympathy of the YPG. While Russia usually perceives factions in Syria supported by the US as its enemy, this is different in the case of the YPG.

Overall, Russia is playing a complicated political game in Syria, trying to manipulate the disputes between all the political groups to its advantage. The Syrian Congress on National Dialogue is a new step in Russia’s efforts to strengthen its role in Syria. While Russia has ruled out the US, Europe and the Gulf States with the Astana talks, Moscow is now trying to exclude Turkey, Iran and all other actors with the initiative in Sochi. While excluded from the Geneva and Astana talks, the YPG controls a large part of Syrian territory. Aware of its strong position in Syria therefore, Russia has invited the YPG to the Sochi conference as it is trying to take control in Syria by dividing other actors.