Taiwan Votes for Continuity of De Facto Sovereignty
It is impossible to expect any change in mainland China's political and territorial sovereignty claims over the island in the face of Taiwan's democratic development.
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te holds a campaign rally in Taipei, Taiwan, on January 11, 2024, ahead of the presidential election scheduled for January 13, 2024. Photo by Anadolu Images.
L
ai Ching-te, the Democratic Progressive Party candidate, is Taiwan’s new president.
Taiwan’s 13th presidential and legislative elections were concluded on Saturday, January 12, with the victory of Lai Ching-te, the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
With a voter turnout of around 70% in Saturday’s elections, DPP candidate Lai Ching-te, who received more than 40% of the vote, will govern the country for the next four years, according to the Central Election Commission (CEC).
Hou Yu-ih, the candidate of the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang-KMT) and former mayor of New Taipei, received 33% of the votes, and the candidate of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), Ko Wen-je, received 26% of the votes.
Victory of de facto status
While this electoral result is the DPP’s third consecutive electoral victory, it is also possible to evaluate this development as a victory of the de facto reality on the ground. This election results signify the strong attachment to the autonomous political stance of the DPP governments since 2016 and their emphasis on equality in terms of sovereignty with mainland China.
Taiwan’s elections are more significant in regional and international politics than in domestic politics. In this regard, the successful implementation of Taiwan’s electoral process is a driving force for democracy in the regional and global spheres.
During the campaign process, DPP Chairman Lai Ching-te stated that, if elected, he would continue the administration’s policies, including those in foreign policy, that have been sustainably implemented by former President Tsai Ing-wen since 2016.
This means that in the next four years Taiwan will continue to draw closer to and develop existing relations with the United States and the European Union, as well as with Japan and Australia, the representatives of this bloc in the region, not politically but in the context of “cooperation and exchange.”
Parliamentary landscape
It is not difficult to predict that although the DPP won the presidential election, it lost the majority in Taiwan’s 113-seat parliament, the Legislative Yuan. Thus, the DPP will have to negotiate with opposition parties on various issues during the legislative process.
The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), which has emerged as a new political movement in Taiwan, should be considered a new voice in the island’s politics with its 26% vote share. So much so that we can predict that after the DPP loses its majority in parliament, it will move closer to the People’s Party, which, unlike the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang-KMT), is drawing attention with its emphasis on democracy.
Elections and global powers
The success of the elections deserves to be considered valuable not only by Taiwanese society, but also by defenders of global peace.
Obviously, the third consecutive election win by the DPP, which has governed the island since 2016, was closely followed by the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) for different but directly related reasons.
However, the aggressive pre-election political discourse that forced and necessitated the evaluation of the elections held on Saturday outside of Taiwanese society and politics is that of these two global powers. This is true at least at the level of discourse and despite all the dilemmas experienced.
Democratic channel in election victory
The 64-year-old Lai hailed the election victory as the “victory of democratic societies” in his statement after the results were announced.
The emphasis on “democratic societies” in the plural is not limited to reiterating the demand of Taiwanese society to be governed by “democratic ideals.” It also explicitly refers to similar societies in the region and around the world that uphold democratic values and practices.
This context is not necessarily only related to Taiwan’s domestic politics, namely in the context of the opposition Nationalist Party’s (KTM) policy of rapprochement with mainland China, or simply the significant support of the U.S. government to the DPP government since 2016.
Behind this statement, there is an emphasis that targets the political regime and policies of Mainland China, especially the developments in Hong Kong since 2013.
The “heavy emphasis” of the the mainland Chinese political elite over Taiwan, by considering it part of mainland China, caused a significant part of the Taiwanese people to vote for the DPP, which adopted the “democratic” form of government, and to adopt democratic discourse and principles in the social structure. It should be evaluated as a reflection of their strong expressions and theory and the applications of these positions in real political life.
Possible developments
It is impossible to expect any change in mainland China’s political and territorial sovereignty claims over the island in the face of Taiwan’s democratic development. After all, Taiwan means “national sovereignty and territorial integrity” for the Chinese mainland.
Nor is it possible for Taiwan to accept any developments regarding Beijing’s direct pressure and control over democratic governance and ideals and the island’s “autonomous” structure.
However, as inherent in the de facto phenomenon, a continuation of the current Cold War situation can be foreseen for both Taiwan and mainland China.
On the other hand, it is worth considering whether the two different political perspectives mentioned above, which are directly related to each other, have the flexibility to evolve into a new constructive policy for both sides. Overall, it is debatable whether President Xi Jinping will initiate a new policy that opens the doors to direct negotiations with Taiwan.
Ultimately, the Xi Jinping administration must reconsider the proposal of “equal-status talks” that former President Tsai Ing-wen insisted on with Beijing during her last eight-year term.
It should not be seen as a weakness if Jinping engages with Taiwan through a new policy initiative. Such an initiative is expected to limit the U.S. military presence in the region, reduce political mistrust between the countries, and mitigate any potential direct conflict in the Asia-Pacific.
Apart from its global impact, Taiwan’s sustainable social and political life based on democratic ideals can be seen as a moral support for the people in the Chinese autonomous regions such as Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Tibet, and some sections of the Chinese population with democratic tendencies in mainland China in general.
Island’s democracy
Although Taiwan has not declared its independence, it has a political structure that is considered a de facto sovereign state.
The process began when the Nationalists settled on the island in 1949, after the struggle between the Communist Party of China and the Chinese Nationalist Party, which ended with the victory of the former.
Since then, neither has mainland China established any sovereignty over the island nor has the Taiwan administration declared its independence. At the same time, Taiwan is considered as an economic and trade partner by numerous countries worldwide, although its sovereign power is not yet recognized by the global community.
While the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang-KMT), considered conservative, ruled the island, the DPP, with its independence discourse, which is undoubtedly a solid political argument, emerged and proved to be influential enough in both island and global politics.
This unique situation in terms of political science deserves to be closely studied.
