UN Report Warns Global Cooling Demand Could Triple by 2050

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he United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) warned on Tuesday that surging global demand for air conditioning and refrigeration could more than triple by 2050, driving a steep rise in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions unless countries adopt sustainable cooling measures.

According to UNEP’s Global Cooling Watch Report 2025, cooling currently accounts for an estimated 4.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) annually — about 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Two-thirds of that figure stems from the electricity needed to power cooling systems, while the rest comes from refrigerant leaks.

If current trends continue, UNEP projects emissions could reach 7.2 billion tons CO₂e by mid-century under a “business-as-usual” pathway. However, a shift toward a “sustainable cooling pathway” could slash emissions by as much as 97%, bringing them close to net zero by 2050 while saving trillions of dollars in energy and infrastructure costs.

“Cooling is both a lifeline and a major climate challenge,” the report states. “It protects people from extreme heat, preserves food and medicine, and underpins productivity — yet it is also a growing source of energy demand and emissions.”

A growing crisis in a warming world

The report emphasizes that the world cannot simply “air condition its way out” of rising temperatures. Global population growth, rapid urbanization, and more frequent extreme heat events are expected to dramatically increase the need for cooling — particularly in low- and middle-income countries in Africa and South and Central Asia.

Without intervention, the global stock of cooling equipment — including air conditioners, refrigerators, and cold storage — could expand from 22 terawatts (TW) in 2022 to 68 TW in 2050. The steepest increases are expected in developing countries, where access to cooling remains limited but temperatures are rising fastest.

At the same time, even high-income regions such as Europe will face sharp growth in cooling demand as extreme heatwaves become more frequent, UNEP warned.

A pathway to sustainable cooling

UNEP’s Sustainable Cooling Pathway proposes a four-step hierarchy: reducing cooling loads through passive building design, using low-energy cooling methods like fans and evaporative systems, maximizing efficiency in cooling technologies, and rapidly phasing down hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants, which have high global warming potential.

Adopting these measures could reduce the projected 2050 cooling capacity by 41%, from 68 TW to 40 TW. That would cut emissions by 64% compared to business as usual, while saving an estimated US$17 trillion in electricity and grid investment costs between 2025 and 2050.

“Practical and integrated solutions already exist to deliver sustainable, equitable and climate-aligned cooling for all,” UNEP said. “Scaling these measures can deliver deep cuts in emissions, strengthen resilience to extreme heat and unlock trillions of dollars in avoided energy and infrastructure costs.”

The report also calls for passive cooling strategies such as cool roofs, green spaces, and natural ventilation, which can lower indoor temperatures by up to 7°C and reduce energy use by nearly 30%.

Policy progress and gaps

UNEP’s analysis of 192 countries shows growing recognition of cooling as a climate issue but highlights significant policy gaps.

So far, 134 countries have incorporated cooling measures into their national climate plans, and 29 have set specific emission reduction targets for the cooling sector. However, only 54 countries have policies covering all three pillars of sustainable cooling — passive building design, efficiency standards, and refrigerant transition.

The report warns that many developing nations still lack building energy codes or regulations mandating efficient cooling technologies. “Critical implementation gaps remain,” UNEP notes, “particularly in regions where regulatory frameworks lag urgent cooling needs.”

Even as air conditioner sales grow, nearly three billion people are projected to remain without adequate access to cooling by 2050 — a gap that will disproportionately affect women and low-income communities.