Norway’s Labour Party Wins Second Term

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orway’s ruling Labour Party has secured a second term in power after winning a narrow parliamentary majority alongside its left-leaning allies, even as the right-wing populist Progress Party celebrated its best-ever election performance in a vote marked by concerns over living costs and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.

With 99 percent of ballots counted, Labour Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere, 65, and four smaller left-leaning parties won 87 seats in the 169-seat parliament, just above the 85-seat threshold required to govern. However, Stoere faces a more challenging parliamentary landscape, dependent on a fragile coalition of five parties to pass key legislation, including the annual budget.

“Stoere will continue as prime minister, but with a much more difficult parliamentary situation,” said Jonas Stein, a political science professor at the University of Tromsoe.

Populist surge reshapes Norway’s political map

The election also marked a dramatic breakthrough for the Progress Party, led by Sylvi Listhaug, 47, which secured 48 seats—more than double its tally from four years ago. The party’s anti-immigration stance promises of tax cuts, and criticism of green energy subsidies resonated strongly, particularly among younger male voters.

“Young people today are much more right-wing than earlier. The Progress Party has won a huge part of the youth vote,” said Eirik Loekke, a fellow at Oslo-based think-tank Civitas.

Listhaug, who cites Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher as her political inspirations, has sought to reposition the Progress Party from its earlier firebrand image to one of fiscal pragmatism, pledging to reduce what she calls “wasteful spending” on foreign aid and climate initiatives.

Oil, sovereign wealth fund and Israel policy on the table

Prime Minister Stoere’s second term will be defined by tough negotiations over oil exploration, taxation of the wealthy, and the role of Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest. Several of his allies have demanded deeper divestments from Israeli companies, following the fund’s recent decision to pull out from more than two dozen firms linked to Israel’s defense sector.

“Some parties on the left question whether Norway is indirectly contributing to violations of international law by investing in companies active in the occupied Palestinian territories,” the report noted.

The war in Ukraine has played a key role in sustaining support for the centre-left government. Norway, sharing a border with Russia in the Arctic, has positioned itself as a major energy supplier to Europe, replacing Russia’s Gazprom as the continent’s top gas exporter after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, 66, joined Stoere’s cabinet last year, a move that bolstered public confidence in Norway’s security policy amid fears of escalating tensions in Europe. A recent survey by the Peace Research Institute Oslo found that 59% of Norwegians believe a new European war is likely within the next decade, up from 55% last year.

The war in Gaza also loomed over the election, with calls from some leftist factions to reassess Norway’s investments in Israeli firms and its role in Middle East diplomacy.

Stoere pledges stability amid fragmentation

Celebrating his victory in Oslo on Monday night, Stoere addressed jubilant supporters:

“This is a signal to outside Norway that social democracy can also win despite a right-wing wave,” he said, as chants of “four more years” filled the hall.

However, with a strengthened opposition and rising populist sentiment, Stoere’s ability to steer policy on oil and gas, climate, and wealth redistribution will depend on fragile compromises.

Norway’s role as a leading energy supplier to Europe is expected to expand further as the European Union phases out Russian gas by 2027, but several of Stoere’s junior coalition partners have called for a gradual phase-out of new oil exploration, potentially limiting future gas field development.

The Progress Party, meanwhile, has vowed to oppose such measures, arguing that oil and gas revenues remain essential to Norway’s prosperity and its welfare state.

As the new government prepares for its second term, analysts say Stoere’s success will depend on his ability to balance domestic demands for tax fairness and green transition with Norway’s pivotal international role as an energy exporter and mediator in global conflicts.

While the left has secured another term, the right-wing surge—particularly among younger voters—signals a shifting political landscape that could shape Norway’s future far beyond the next four years.

(Source: Reuters)