The Anatomy of an Election: What Will the New Era Bring to Cyprus?

T

he presidential election in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) concluded with Tufan Erhürman, the leader and candidate of the Republican Turkish Party (CTP), securing 62.76 percent of the vote and winning the election. Erhürman’s confident rhetoric, evident in his pre-election statements, was thus confirmed. On election day in Nicosia, where I was present, a close race was anticipated. A second round was not expected given the low potential vote totals of the remaining six candidates. However, the contest between Ersin Tatar and Tufan Erhürman was expected to remain uncertain until the very end. That was not the case.

The outcome was clear from the first ballot box announced. The clearest indication of the difference observed in almost all ballot boxes was that Erhürman received more votes in six different provincial electoral districts. During normal elections, the first votes announced in cities would go to the CTP or its candidate; then, the votes coming in from the countryside would change the balance. This time, however, the votes did not differ in geographical distribution. For the first time since the 1990 election, a candidate exceeded 60 percent, and general projections were inaccurate.

What did Erhürman promise his electorate?

The Cyprus issue, with its geopolitical dimensions, has been one of the dominant topics on Türkiye’s foreign policy agenda for decades. The ethnic conflict and its legacy, similar to the Palestinian issue, brought about by years of British rule (1878-1960), complicated the problem. In this context, the Turkish and Greek sides have met on various platforms for years. However, the unresolved marathon talks with the Greek side in recent years reduced interest in the process in Türkiye.

The issue has been assessed in terms of its proximity to regional and geographical conflicts, as well as energy exploration, rather than the current problems facing the Turkish Cypriot people, who are isolated. This election marks a turning point in the context of the “Cyprus Issue,” which has been on hold for a long time and is now back on the agenda. Erhürman believes that gains can be made, particularly in the negotiation process. During the election campaign, he promised to build on the progress made on issues such as the establishment of the Immovable Property Commission (2005), a key tool in resolving the property issues of Turkish Cypriots.

The candidates’ differing positions on solutions to the Cyprus deadlock led to a tense election campaign, with tensions rising periodically. Erhürman’s support for the federal roadmap was portrayed, particularly by the Tatar camp, as a declaration of surrender. However, the Erhürman camp emphasized that the “two-state solution” formula was “devoid of content” and that such an argument would mean Türkiye relinquishing its guarantee rights over the entire island.

Erhürman gained prominence during the election campaign due to the government’s failure to address basic humanitarian services and the informal economy. In particular, Turkish Cypriots have complained that structural transformation has lagged behind, as confirmed by our observations on the ground. During his campaign, Erhürman pointed out that the Cyprus negotiations had been frozen for five years, emphasizing that there had never been a similar “climate of apathy” during any other TRNC leader’s term. The deepening of the “deadlock in the current status quo” to the detriment of Turks resulted in the Greek Cypriot side walking away from the table after the Crans-Montana talks in 2017. This turned into negative sentiment among Turkish Cypriots, making the anti-Tatar sentiment more visible.

Erhürman’s campaign slogan, “I promise seriousness,” was not merely a criticism of Tatar’s rhetorical politics. It also referred to the failure to implement policies that affect citizens’ lives, beyond the vicious cycle of foreign policy. Complaints that the government formed after the 2022 political crises was inadequate were also among the factors that paved the way for Erhürman’s victory. It should be noted that the Tatar camp also observed that the current government’s performance negatively affected them.

Sociological fault lines on the Island

A key factor in the Erhürman-Tatar rivalry and the National Unity Party (UBP)-CTP competition is the sociocultural differences between Turkish Cypriots who lived on the island before 1974 and those who migrated from Türkiye after that date. This difference in identity and historical heritage has led to conflicts over the decades and is reflected in voting trends during elections. Tatar, who is in the UBP, experienced one of his disappointments in these elections when he found that the voting preferences of those who came from Türkiye did not turn into a block voting practice, as they had in previous elections. The previously polarized masses showed a more heterogeneous distribution this time. Moreover, the turnout rate in the first round was higher than in previous elections (64 percent).

Erhürman promised to grant the right to obtain a Cyprus-EU passport to children born to couples in mixed marriages (i.e., marriages between children of families who lived on the island before 1974 and Turks who migrated there afterwards). Emphasizing this issue from a human rights perspective, Erhürman took a convincing stance, arguing that gains could be achieved at the negotiating table. He promised that, as a result of negotiations with the EU, favorable mechanisms for Turks could be established with the support of the Greek Cypriot side. This approach addresses the issue as a human rights issue rather than a matter of “confidence-building measures,” which could ignite a restoration process that spreads to other issues.

The current status quo in Cyprus forces Turkish Cypriots to live in undeserved isolation woven with embargoes, as well as commercial and cultural isolation. Recently, one of the significant indicators of the international discrimination faced by Turkish Cypriots occurred. Jordan announced that it would not import halloumi cheese from the TRNC. While the Greek Cypriot administration welcomed the decision, the Turkish side opposed it. Such developments directly affect the lives of Turks and influenced the elections.

The narrowing regional pincer: the shadow of the Israel-Greek Cypriot alliance

Although the Cyprus issue has not been as prominent in Türkiye’s calculus in recent years, geopolitical tensions have drawn attention to developments on the island and in the surrounding area. Notably, the escalating military cooperation between Israel and the Greek Cypriot Administration (GCA) violates the “Cyprus Agreement” and bypasses Türkiye, the island’s guarantor. This cooperation also endangers the security of Turkish Cypriots, who have an inherent right to live on the island. Israel’s aggressive expansionism has resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians in recent years.

Ignoring the negative impact of this reality on regional countries and deploying Israel’s air defense systems at Baf Air Base constitutes a further violation of the guarantee framework. The Greek Administration of Southern Cyprus Defense Minister’s announcement that they have opened their air and naval bases to Israel creates a situation that poses a threat in the short, medium, and long term. It should be emphasized that the new president, Erhürman, also has a sharply critical perspective on the Greek Cypriot side. He stresses that Israel, France, and the US usurp the “founding partner rights” by including the Greek Cypriot side in their security umbrella. In the current rhetorical analysis, it is important to note that Türkiye and the new TRNC president share the same perspective on this issue.