N
early half of Americans believe the United States is likely to enter a nuclear war within the next 10 years, according to a new YouGov survey that highlights growing public concern about global instability and fears of conflict between major powers.
The online poll, conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 2 among 1,148 U.S. adult citizens, found that 46% of respondents consider a nuclear conflict involving the U.S. “very” or “somewhat” likely within the next decade. By contrast, 37% said they do not believe a nuclear war is likely.
The survey results underscore a striking shift in American perceptions of national security, driven partly by escalating geopolitical tensions and domestic political divisions.
The poll reflected deep partisan differences in how Americans assess the risk. Democrats were significantly more likely to fear a nuclear conflict, with 57% saying a nuclear war involving the U.S. is likely. Among Republicans, the figure fell to 37%.
Analysts say the divide may reflect Democrats’ unease with the foreign and nuclear policies of President Donald Trump’s administration, which has taken a more confrontational stance in several hotspots, including Russia, China, and Iran.
An overwhelming 69% of respondents said nuclear weapons make the world a “more dangerous place,” while only 9% said they make the world safer — a sign that public confidence in nuclear deterrence is eroding.
More than half of Americans, 52%, also believe that the risk of nuclear war is higher today than it was 10 years ago.
“This data shows a nation deeply anxious about its place in an increasingly unstable world,” said one security analyst based in Washington. “Concerns once considered fringe are now entering mainstream political discourse.”
Beyond state-on-state conflict, Americans also express growing concern about nuclear terrorism. Nearly 44% of respondents said they believe terrorists or criminal groups could successfully use a nuclear device inside the United States within the next decade.
Security experts say the finding reflects public awareness of nuclear smuggling, cyber threats, and the potential for non-state actors to obtain radioactive material.
The survey also revealed broad support for limiting the circumstances under which the U.S. might deploy nuclear weapons. Fifty-six percent of respondents said nuclear weapons should be used only in retaliation for a nuclear attack. Meanwhile, 21% said the United States should never use nuclear weapons under any circumstances.
On the question of whether America’s own nuclear arsenal makes the country safer, opinions were mixed: 33% said U.S. nuclear weapons increase their safety, while 26% said the arsenal makes them feel less safe.
Public concern extended to foreign nuclear powers as well. Large majorities expressed worry about countries such as North Korea, Russia, China, and Pakistan possessing nuclear weapons.
Roughly half of respondents also said they were concerned about the U.S. nuclear stockpile itself — a reflection of broader anxiety about global arms races and the possibility of miscalculation.
The YouGov poll comes as the international system faces its most volatile period since the Cold War. The war in Ukraine, tensions across East Asia, Iran–Israel hostilities, and intensified rivalry between Washington and Beijing have all contributed to a pervasive sense of insecurity.
YouGov’s findings suggest Americans are increasingly bracing for the possibility of unprecedented conflict — and questioning whether nuclear weapons still serve as a stabilizing force or a growing threat to global survival.
With nearly half of Americans now expecting nuclear war within a decade, the survey paints a sobering picture of national anxiety at a time of rapid geopolitical change.
(Source: Anadolu Agency)
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