Ethiopia Pursues Mega Projects but Risks New Conflict in Bid for Sea Access
Prime Minister Abiy’s ambitious development drive clashes with rising regional tensions, ethnic violence and economic strain.
Eritrea reopened its embassy in Addis Ababa, which had been closed for nearly 20 years, following the normalization of relations with Ethiopia. The opening ceremony, attended by Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki (right 2), was also attended by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (left 2) and numerous high-level officials in 2018. Photo by Anadolu Images.
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thiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has built a global reputation around grand national projects — from completing the massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) to planning Africa’s largest airport and preparing the groundwork for a nuclear power plant. Yet as the landlocked nation pushes for its most contentious ambition yet — direct access to the sea — fears of a new conflict are rapidly escalating.
In a triumphant address to parliament in late October, Abiy hailed Ethiopia’s transformation. Addis Ababa has been reshaped by a development boom, while the GERD’s inauguration in July was billed as a milestone that could free Africa’s second-most populous country from reliance on foreign aid. But despite these achievements, Ethiopia faces mounting headwinds that could upend its fragile recovery.
Rising tensions with Eritrea
A central flashpoint is Ethiopia’s demand for Red Sea access, lost when Eritrea seceded in 1993. Although the two countries made peace in 2018 — a breakthrough that won Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize — relations have deteriorated sharply.
In June, Eritrea accused Ethiopia of harboring a “long-brewing war agenda” to seize its ports. Ethiopia denies any aggressive intent, insisting it seeks sea access “peacefully,” but has accused Eritrea of supporting rebel groups and “actively preparing to wage war.”
Magus Taylor, deputy Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group, described the situation as volatile. “There’s a possibility of mistakes or miscalculation,” he warned. “And the situation could deteriorate further in the coming months.”
Tensions also remain high with Egypt, which relies almost entirely on the Nile for drinking water and views the GERD as a threat to its survival. After years of stalled negotiations, Cairo hardened its stance following the dam’s inauguration.
In September, Egypt declared it reserved “the right to take all necessary measures” to protect its vital interests. Cairo has strengthened security ties with Eritrea and signed a pact with Somalia — moves interpreted by Ethiopia as attempts to exploit regional frictions.
Somalia reacted angrily last year when Ethiopia signed a port agreement with Somaliland, the breakaway region Mogadishu claims as sovereign territory.
Ethnic violence erupts across Ethiopia
Internally, Ethiopia remains deeply unstable despite the 2022 peace agreement that ended the devastating Tigray war. New conflicts have exploded in the Amhara and Oromia regions, where the Fano militias and Oromo Liberation Army accuse the federal government of repression.
Massacres, kidnappings, and extrajudicial killings have been reported by multiple witnesses. Humanitarian agencies say insecurity has made aid delivery dangerously difficult.
Even in Tigray, peace is fragile. Southern areas have seen clashes between regional forces and militias aligned with Addis Ababa. Tigrayan leaders accuse the government of breaching the peace deal after a drone strike on their forces — and federal officials now allege Tigray is colluding with Eritrea.
Economic reforms clash with rising inequality
This instability contrasts sharply with the optimism in Addis Ababa, where Abiy’s government has poured billions into parks, museums, bike lanes, and new commercial districts. The prime minister aims to turn Ethiopia’s capital into a continental tourism and investment hub.
Major reforms — floating the currency, opening the banking sector, launching a stock exchange — helped secure a $3.4 billion IMF bailout last year. But investor confidence remains fragile as insecurity persists and conflict risks grow.
Meanwhile, poverty has surged. Around 43% of Ethiopians now live below the poverty line, up from 33% in 2016, according to the World Bank. Rising food and fuel prices, alongside increased defense spending, have deepened hardship.
The uneven distribution of prosperity fuels resentment. “Abiy has a firm grip on the country at the center,” Taylor said, “but the periphery conflicts are driven by feelings of injustice — that they are poor and the center is rich. So we expect instability to continue.”
As Ethiopia pursues mega-projects and seeks a return to the sea, the stakes — economic, political and military — are rising. The question now is whether Abiy’s sweeping vision will propel the country forward, or ignite a new era of conflict in the Horn of Africa.
(Source: The Associated Press)
