Georgia Meloni’s accession to power in Italy is seen as a remarkable turning point that has redefined Euro-Mediterranean relations in general and Euro-Tunisian relations in particular. Meloni was sworn in as president of the Council of Ministers on October 22, 2022. Her inauguration caused an uproar and raised questions about the future of the region, particularly in relation to the Italian state’s migration policy. In fact, an important factor to consider is that Meloni is the leader of Brothers of Italy, a direct descendant of Benito Mussolini’s fascist legacy, but she is also one of the iconic figures of the new right in Europe, propagating a strong sense of xenophobia and advancing a sterile populist discourse.
It is no secret that geopolitics is the fundamental parameter defining Italian efforts in the European-Tunisian equation. Separated by only 140 kilometers, Italy’s geographical proximity to Tunisia has a significant impact on the bilateral dynamics between the two strategically important countries. In fact, the implications go beyond the borders of Italy, as they directly affect the European continent. The answer to the question “Why Italy?” is therefore multifaceted and fraught with complications and interpretations. From a strategic point of view, the shared Mediterranean Sea serves as an important route not only for the promotion of trade but also for the movement of people, making migration a key issue in the Italian (and European) approach to Tunisia. It is important to stress that Tunisia has a significant position both as a home for illegal migrants and as a transit country for migrants from beyond the Sahara.
The main reasons for intercountry migration are often human capital-related, but also include asylum seekers fleeing the intense political instability in North African countries. Statistics confirm that more than 5.3% of the total population of the EU comprise migrants of non-European origin, amounting to 23.7 million people from Third World countries. In this context, Tunisia’s influence on the European Union depends more on the uncontrollable influx of immigrants than on trade and economic dynamics.
The number of Tunisian citizens arriving by sea on the island of Lampedusa in southern Italy has fluctuated over the years. In 2019, the number stood at 2,654 and in 2018 at 5,181. In 2021, it peaked with 15,671 arrivals, followed by 2020 with 12,883 arrivals. The statistics prove that the problems caused by the sea are a major incentive for the Italian authorities to work with Tunisia to find a solution.
In conjunction with the previous section, we can conclude that the geographical factor has implications for energy reasons, namely, the dependency between Europe and the southern Mediterranean. It is worth noting that Italy is one of Europe’s largest energy consumers and its proximity to Tunisia, a potential producer of renewable energy (especially solar energy), could be beneficial for the country and for Europe at large.
It is useful for reasons of perspective to compare this approach with the trends in the global power struggle that have taken place since 2021. In this context, the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian military confrontation is seen as the origin of a number of flaws in the concept of the “balance of power” between the continents.
The European Union is currently facing the direct consequences of its transcontinental policies. Many observers believe that the fighting between the two parties has led to a reshaping of the traditional relationship between the EU and its southern Mediterranean neighbors. In particular, the military hostilities has to some extent broken the archaic “asymmetry of interdependence” that the EU has maintained at a steady pace since the signing of the Barcelona Process with Tunisia in 1995. The Russia-Ukraine war has created logistical difficulties for Europe, and given that Tunisia is a strategic partner, facilitating the transit of gas to Europe across the maritime border with Italy, the “Meloni factor” can be justified in the ongoing unrest over the past month.
Known colloquially as “TransMed,” the Trans-Mediterranean Pipeline is a 2,475 km natural gas pipeline “allowing the transport of large quantities of high-quality energy” through Tunisia and Sicily. Although Tunisia’s share is comparatively small, it is nevertheless considered to occupy an important position that can solve the energy problem in terms of the European Union’s external interests, as well as securing potential containment solutions to prevent Tunisia’s economic decline. It is crucial to highlight that the European Union is still considered the country’s first economic partner, accounting for 73.8% of total exports, while maintaining rates of 45.5% of Tunisia’s total imports. Moreover, Italy’s role in Tunisia’s foreign policy has increased in economic terms in the post-Jasmine Revolution era. With the introduction of democratic elements, Italy became Tunisia’s leading supplier in 2017, ahead of France.
Italian-Tunisian relations are often seen as a projection of Euro-Tunisian relations, due to the sum of all the factors mentioned above. Put simply, the inter(in)dependence between Tunisia and Italy and/or the European Union is governed by multiple parameters, of which the economy and migration work together to define this web of complexities.
The strategy of bilateral cooperation is underpinned by a series of diplomatic all-round dialogues and coordination, mediated mainly by Italy, and has witnessed an urgent upsurge that comes to fulfil the legacy of the “shared history, geographical proximity and strong relationship” (Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations, 2023) between the European Union and Tunisia. From a European perspective, the problem of migratory flows is seen as a predator lurking behind the bushes and imposes a multitude of complexities on the Euro-Tunisian platform, exemplified by economic, political, and ethnographic difficulties.
The Italian perception of the situation has been translated on two different occasions by Meloni’s courageous efforts. Georgia Meloni first landed on Tunisian soil on June 6 and returned on June 11 to reaffirm the positive European perception of Tunisia, accompanied by European Union President Ursula von der Leyen and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. The two parties worked out “a memorandum of understanding on the comprehensive partnership package to be approved by Tunisia and the European Union before the end of June 2023” in order to integrate the country into the European efforts to regulate migration. On the other side of the of the coin, President von der Leyen insisted that “against the backdrop of global uncertainties, it is in our common interest to strengthen our relations and invest in stability and prosperity.”
The new strategic alliance has highlighted a set of measures that can help lighten the burden on the shoulders of both parties: the strengthening of economic and trade relations, the guarantee of sustainable and competitive energy partnerships, the issue of migration, and the emphasis on people-to-people contacts. From an economic point of view, however, the European response provoked strong local criticism that discredited the Italian discourse at the expense of the role of Meloni’s image in international diplomacy.
Although the impact of Tunisia on the stability of the European continent is acknowledged to be more direct, local commentators have been astonished by the unwavering nature of the economic incentives offered to the country. During her visit to Carthage, von der Leyen stated that the EU was prepared to mobilize up to €900 million to support micro-economic responses to urgent threats to the common interest, together with an additional €150 million in budgetary support. This statement has been interpreted not only as a belittlement of the Tunisian cause, but also as a one-sided European tailoring of cooperation.
Surprisingly, the element of “equality on the negotiation table” is absent from the European agenda. Many commentators in Tunisia have recently argued that the absence of a clear focus on equality on the negotiation table in the European agenda is as much about the country’s revolutionary legacy as it is about the growing concerns about democratic backsliding and waning support for democracy.
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