The Yellow Vests – the first group continuing their protests even on Christmas Eve, are now preparing for the New Year – even though their numbers have decreased despite French President Emmanuel Macron’s step back and the terror attack in Strasbourg. Having claimed Champs Elysee, the renowned avenue in Paris for six weeks now, the Yellow Vests will also be there for New Year’s Eve. They have promised that they will wear their vests but spend the night in an air of festivity in the avenue, which formerly witnessed violent protests.

So far, 10 people were killed, more than 4.500 protesters were detained and more than a thousand people were injured during the protests. Besides, more than 43 thousand fell out of their jobs, and the damages due to the protests cost the state treasury around 10 billion Euros. According to various estimations and indicators, the damage the protests have caused in the private sector might reach 4 billion Euro.

Since the beginning of the Yellow Vests protests in France, 10 people have been killed, 4,500 people have been detained and 1000 people have been injured. 

Resorting to historical references in almost every issue, the French are now endeavoring to make an in-depth analysis of the Yellow Vest movement with their historians, intellectuals, sociologists and political scientists – although they brushed the phenomenon off during the first stages of the incident. Some, including the Interior Minister Christophe Castaner, refer to the incidents in France between the two great wars. Even in the second protest, Castaner made a reference to 6 February, 1934. It is highly dubious if these two share similarities. The Cartel of the Left was a governmental group composed by the alliance of the Socialist Party, Radical-Socialist party, Independent Radicals and Republican-Socialist Party. The country was shaken by a scandal of corruption and bribery centering on a Russian Jewish broker supported by the parliamentarians. The economic crisis was deepened while the parliamentary regime was in a profound crisis. So, people gathered in the Place de la Concorde on February 6, 1932, and started marching towards the Prime Ministry in Palais Bourbon. The state buildings were under a serious threat. The police aimed and shot the demonstrators, 15 people were killed while 1435 were injured. The demonstrations, which were dominated by the far-right, fascist groups and monarchists against the parliamentary regime, went down into history as a “far-right movement,” but modern historians agree that this is not an accurate description by reminding that leftist and communist groups were also among the protesters.

Another comparison has been made with the yellow union movement. Emerging during the early 1900s, but appearing on the political scene throughout the 20th century, this movement was claimed by far-right groups who were against going on strike and fighting against bosses. They defined themselves as a local movement against Marxist unions. But this comparison was never given much credit since no similarity is apparent except for the color used.  

When a social crisis emerges in France, it is mostly referred to the 1995 strikes in France, the largest crisis experienced in the country since 1968. The protesters demonstrated against the reform package on public employees and retirement for days and went on strike, making the government take back every step it previously took. But unions were the main actors of that movement. In the case of Yellow Vests, no union is involved; they have never used a mediator. There is only one similarity, the support the then President Jacques Chirac enjoyed declined as soon as he took office – just as Macron’s case today.

Some historians likened the Yellow Vests to the 1968 incidents, to which many objected. 68 was surely a youth movement, but there is no outstanding generation in Yellow Vests. Also, 68 was against authority whereas the Yellow Vests’ main opposition is not against authority. They are essentially against Macron’s practices and the system in general. The unions were apparent in 68, and when Pompidou was trying to make an agreement, he particularly paid attention to the words of the CGT’s bosses.

France has witnessed many social protests in the past. How different – if so – are the Yellow Vests protests from previous experiences?

Besides, some groups compared the Yellow Vests with the Poujadism movement led by small business owners and artisans during the 1950s. Even Macron argues that the Yellow Vests are modern poujadists. It was a movement of the self-employed who felt downtrodden and ignored and reacted against the heavy tax load. It was ignited by a tradesman named Poujad, turned into a political movement and was positioned in the French right-wing. It was an anti-Semitic and anti-Republican movement. On the other hand, the Yellow Vests cannot be argued to be against the Republic, and there has only been a single anti-Semitist incident throughout the protests. So, this is not an accurate classification since the whole movement cannot be categorized as anti-Semitic by referring to only a single event.

Due to their populism, the Yellow Vests are also likened to Boulangism, which was prominent between 1885 and 1889. Boulangism appeared in a period when the conditions were very convenient for populism, great disturbances were seen in different segments of society, and various demands could not be addressed. The War Minister Georges Ernest Boulanger was a nationalist and a German opponent who enjoyed the support of the left, far-left and right-wing monarchists. Also compared with the Front National led by Marine Le Pen, the Boulanger movement united people from all segments complaining about the situation of the country. Boulangism’s discourse defended direct democracy and strong state while it was also nationalist and anti-Semitic. Despite being supported by different segments such as students, anti-racists and ambulance workers, the Yellow Vests do not share many similarities with this movement, either.

Macron’s power is in decline although he was initially believed to save France and Europe and was seen as an antidote to the populism virus by the Western elite.

The Yellow Vests are mostly compared with the sans-culottes of 1789, but sans-culottes did not correspond to a specific economic class despite mostly comprising mid-level tradesmen. Also, they started rioting in Paris whereas the Yellow Vests do mostly comprise those living in rural spaces or peripheries. They were very influential in the period known as the years of terror in France as they killed aristocrats, seized the properties of the rich and ravaged the streets.

Despite all these comparisons, it is commonly believed that the Yellow Vests constitute an unprecedented phenomenon. And currently, Macron’s power is in decline although he was initially believed to save France and Europe and was seen as an antidote to the populism virus by the Western elite.

Having received 34.9 percent of the vote share in the second round of the latest French presidential elections and by doubling the rate of support her father enjoyed 15 years ago, Marine Le Pen broke a record in the history of the French far-right. However, what was highlighted in the election period was the victory of Emmanuel Macron, who was elected as the new president of France by defeating center right, center left and far-right parties. Time Magazine featured Macron on its front cover as “The Next Leader of Europe.” In a tweet he wrote in French, the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker congratulated Macron by saying: “Happy that the French have chosen a European future. Together for a stronger and fairer Europe.”

A research shows that the fortunes of the richest 500 business people in France increased by %13 during 2018 by increasing three times over the past decade.

Being the finance minister of the socialist president, François Hollande’s cabinet, and a former employee of a long-established and renowned Rothschild Investment Bank, Macron resigned and founded his party, namely “La République En Marche!” becoming the youngest president in French history at the age 39. He was promising for quite a bit and achieved a parliamentary majority. However, although the course of events had already reversed their direction, the situation became visible only a year after En Marche came to power.

Hollande, who went down in history as a terribly ineffective president, impressed all the Frenchmen for the first time when he nicknamed Macron as the president of the richest. In the meantime, a research published by the French weekly Challenges showed that the fortunes of the richest 500 business people in the country increased by 13 percent during 2018 compared to the previous year and reached 650 billion Euros in sum by increasing three times over the past decade. The research also indicated that the number of billionaires making the list of the wealthiest people exceeded 100 for the first time.

Although it seems at first sight that the protests broke out because of the rises in diesel fuel prices, the Yellow Vests received the support of %80 of the French population since its outbreak and staged four big protests that witnessed serious cases of violence, which led to severe casualties.

On October 18, in the Brittany region of France, a woman named Jacline Mouraud asked: “Where are we going to? What do you do with the money you are taking from us?” Mouraud criticized the price rises and published a video message that finished with “Enough!” The video went viral, shared by more than 6 million people on social networks. On November 17, a truck driver named Eric Drouet called people to protest by saying that “let’s block France.”

Now, there is no need to ask how they ended up organizing since the experiences around the world so far have already proven that it is now very easy to do that with present means of communication. Although it seems at first sight that the protests broke out because of the rises in diesel fuel prices, the Yellow Vests received the support of 80 percent of the French population since the outbreak of the events and staged four big protests that witnessed serious cases of violence, which led to severe casualties. While 4.099 people have been detained, four were killed and hundreds were injured during the incidents.

Although the demands of the French embodied in the Yellow Vest uprising were not answered, it cannot be said that Macron and the government remained unresponsive for three weeks. For instance, while the protests were ongoing, Macron said: “The perpetrators of this violence do not want change, they want chaos. They will be identified and put on trial.” According to French Interior Minister Christophe Castaner, the protests “created a monster.” Foreign Minister Jean Yves Le Drian stated that he understood how fragile democracy is when he heard about some uprising calls following the protests ongoing for three weeks, adding that all these jeopardize institutions and means of coexistence. Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire stated that the violence means a catastrophe for the economy and added that this is a national and social crisis of democracy. Although their justifications look different, the situation is the same for the Yellow Vests and the majority siding with them – although they did not take to the streets. What has been observed in developed countries since the 2008 crisis is a social and national crisis of democracy.

Eventually, after the fourth violent protest and prior to the fifth one, President Macron addressed the public, saying: “I take my share of responsibility. I might have hurt people with my words.” Then he announced some relief measures, which include eliminating social security tax in pensions for retirees earning less than 2.000 euros a month, and the minimum wage in France, which is around 1.200 euros, will be raised by 100 euros beginning in 2019 without setting any burden on employers. His statement on the raise in minimum wage caused some confusion, upon which journalists inquired the Elysee Palace. In fact, as required by law, the government already has to raise the minimum wage by 20 euros at the beginning of 2019. The remaining 80 euros was projected to be provided with the state’s renunciation of some social cuts. However, Macron refused one of the leading demands of the Yellow Vests, reinstating a tax on the wealthy, which he ruled out during his first term in office. 

Macron seems to have lost 15 points in support, including the votes of his own supporters over the past two months, whereas far-right Le Pen and far-left Melenchon are on a slight rise.

All in all, Macron came to be known as the president of the wealthy and the finance groups. Two different surveys conducted after his announcement show that Macron could not convince 59 percent of the French public. Also, he seems to have lost 15 points in support, including the votes of his own supporters over the past two months, whereas far-right Le Pen and far-left Melenchon are on a slight rise. This aspect of the story can be summed up in the best way with the tweet written by Steve Bannon, a former Goldman Sachs banker who was an advisor to Donald Trump. Having come to Brussels for a conference organized by far-right groups in a way reminiscent of the wolf disguised as the grandmother of the little red riding hood, Bannon tweeted: “To run a country I would rather have 100 yellow vests than 100 Goldman Sachs officials.”

Paris is burning with protests that started in reaction to the government’s announcement of a new tax on diesel fuel. As many analysts have already pointed out, the protests did not emerge and escalate to violent riots exclusively for this sole reason. Hence, we should not do the same mistake that Europeans do on the Middle East: “It’s all about oil.” This does not mean that the price hike did not play a role though, it really did trigger the protests. However, the latent concept we are looking for here is not oil. The word we are looking for, and many have long found it, is populism.

Populism has been in the center of political debates from the U.S. to Europe particularly since Trump’s electoral victory in 2016. The elections in Europe since then have only exacerbated this debate. This is an interesting development given that the West is well-known for its well established, institutionalized political scene. In Europe, for many long years, politics was not about the masses or the charismatic leaders but mostly about the faceless institutions, technical procedures, and political correctness. Populism, on the other hand, is the wave of politics famous for defaming all three, in short – “the establishment.” It is the movement that gives hope to people in a way that their voice, for the first time in a long time, will be heard. It is the message to the masses, which claims that the time has come to take revenge from the corrupt elites by stripping them off their privileges and giving the “real” citizens what they deserve.

Populists want their states to be sovereign, which implies restraining the hyper globalization of the flow of finances out of and people into their country. Now, the West is facing with a trilemma of sovereignty, hyper-inflation, and democracy.

Populists want the citizens to have their due, not the immigrants in the case of right-wing populism nor the rich in the case of left-wing populism. They want their states to be sovereign, which implies restraining the hyper globalization of the flow of finances out of and people into their country. The demand for sovereignty is also related to the call for “real” democracy, not the one hijacked by “corrupt elites.” In other words, as suggested by Dani Rodrik, a Turkish economist and scholar of political economy at Harvard, this trilemma of sovereignty, hyper-inflation, and democracy is the problem the West is facing. In some places, the problem to solve this problem led to the election of new faces to the highest spots with the hopes of bringing a magical solution to the deepest problems their countries are in.

In fact, Macron was just one of these examples who came to office with popular vote and with high, if not magical, expectations. In some sense, Macron’s election was revolutionary in the eyes of the many. After all, he was not from “the establishment.” Nevertheless, revolution devours its own children, to nobody’s surprise in France. When people realized that there was no magic in real life, populism turned violent. The country that elected Macron for a revolution is now pushing him to the edge for another revolution. Around 1000 arrested, over 100 injured in the ongoing events in France, and still counting. This looks like Macron’s hopes have faded away quick.

The country that elected Macron for a revolution is now pushing him to the edge for another revolution.

While the rise of populism has led to crucial changes in world politics, Turkey seems to be a country among the least affected from the populist surge. This is partly because Turkey has been giving its own fight with “the establishment” over the past 17 years. And this fight is not unchecked and left to the masses, but is carried out by the new political elites of the ruling AK Party. After all these economic hardships, security threats, millions of the immigrants having flooded into the country in the past few years, Turkey has still not fallen victim to populism. In fact, the ruling party still stands behind the Syrian immigrants despite the populist discourses of the CHP and Iyi Party. The AK Party again resisted the opposition parties by not flexing the budget and it chose to keep the social security system intact. Hence, unlike many observers’ claims, Turkey and its ruling party is still not following the populist surge in Europe or elsewhere.