On Monday Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri said that the Iran-backed Hezbollah must stop interfering in the affairs of neighboring countries, and accept a “neutral” policy in order to bring an end to Lebanon’s political crisis.

Hariri abruptly announced his resignation in a televised address from Saudi Arabia on November 4, accusing Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah of attempting to destabilize the situation in Lebanon and the Middle East, which Tehran in turn has denied.

He added that he had postponed his resignation to discuss ways to disassociate Lebanon from wars in neighboring countries.

“I would like the stability of Lebanon to be the first thing for everyone. For me, when the president asked me to suspend my resignation, I told him that we had to solve some problems, and we are doing some consultations, and I would like to stay,” Hariri said speaking in an interview recorded on Monday evening with French broadcaster CNews.

“I wanted to do something for the country. We are in a very difficult period where the whole region burns. What I want is to stabilize Lebanon,” he said speaking of his resignation.

“When I saw that we had a very big problem with the Gulf, I had to create a positive shock. Regarding everything that happened there, there are many stories that have come out, but I am keeping it to myself,” he said, adding that he went to Saudi Arabia to improve relations.

“Lebanon cannot resolve a question like Hezbollah which is in Syria, Iraq, everywhere because of Iran. It is a regional political solution that needs to be done,” Hariri said.

“The interference of Iran affects us all. If we want a policy that is good for the region we shouldn’t be interfering.”

Hariri’s long-time political patron Saudi Arabia, is Iran’s main rival in the region. Hezbollah, which forms part of the Lebanese government, is backed by Iran and fights alongside the Assad regime in Syria and in Iraq against DAESH militants.

“I don’t want a political party in my government that interferes in Arab countries against other Arab countries,” he said adding that he wants his country to be neutral vis-a-vis all conflicts

Hariri said he expected Hezbollah to implement “the neutrality we agreed upon in the government and the communique in parliament, where we said we will have good relations with all Arab countries,” and added, “We cannot say something and do something else.”

Possibility of resignation persists

Hariri said he was ready to stay on as prime minister but would resign again if Iran and Hezbollah did not accept the new political balance and the state policy of staying out of regional conflicts he was proposing.

However he noted, “I think in the interest of Lebanon, Hezbollah is engaging in a positive dialogue. They know we have to remain neutral in the region.”

*Written by Suna Nur Sarihan. 

As the days pass Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, who announced his resignation earlier this month, is coming clear about his stance, enough to suggest why he had decided to resign at all.

Hariri has finally spoken out against Hezbollah on Saturday, calling the Iran backed Shia group’s regional position as unacceptable. Lebanon’s Sunni leader had announced his resignation earlier this month in the Gulf country — Saudi Arabia — that considers itself as a Sunni hotbed. Analysts around the world had suggested that the cause of his resignation could be Saudi’s attempt to pressurize the Lebanese state to take action against Hezbollah.

“As we have previously announced on several occasions, we will not accept Hezbollah’s position that affect our Arab brothers or target the security and stability of their countries,” he added.

Lebanon, with its consociational government, is a politically fragile country. Its political spectrum is broadly divided into Shia, Sunni and Christian groups. Hariri’s resignation announcement put Lebanon into a state of uncertainty and had the potential to submerge the country in Middle Eastern chaos. Later he overturned his decision to resign after the officials in Lebanon said they would only accept Hariri’s resignation if he delivered it on Lebanese soil.

In a statement Hariri said, “The postponement of resignation at the request of President Michel Aoun was to give an opportunity to discuss and negotiate our principal demands to make Lebanon neutral and keep it away from the conflicts and the wars in the region, and to implement the policy of disassociation … and commit to the Taif Agreement.”

*Written by Waseem Ahad. 

After he announced his resignation in Riyadh on November 4, Saad Hariri met with King Selman bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia, and later visited the United Arab Emirates and France. Hariri met with President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi in Egypt’s capital city Cairo yesterday, then finally went to Cyprus.

Hariri came back to his country yesterday, 17 days after his resignation.

Not a year had passed since Hariri’s government got a vote of confidence from the parliament when he made his resignation speech in which he blamed Iran’s “meddling” in the country and its powerful Lebanese ally, the Hezbollah movement for his decision, adding that he feared an assassination attempt.

“We are living in a climate similar to the atmosphere that prevailed before the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri,” referring to the assassination of his father, a former Lebanese prime minister.

The sudden move plunged Lebanon – a country with fragile political stability – into an ongoing period of uncertainty, fueling fears of a potential war between Saudi Arabia and Iran with Lebanon on the front line.

“We are worried about Hariri’s current conditions, he must return to Lebanon and explain the reasons for his resignation. His resignation is invalid unless he does so,” President Michel Aoun stated.

Officials in Lebanon had alleged that Hariri was forced to resign and was held hostage by Saudi authorities, an allegation Hariri denied in his first public statement following his resignation speech.

Lebanese officials said they would only accept his resignation if it was announced in Lebanon. Hariri’s resignation was also refused by his political rival Hezbollah.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah accused Saudi Arabia of forcing Hariri to resign and holding him as a hostage.

Hezbollah members are also included in the Lebanese unity government that Hariri formed a year ago.

What changed in Lebanon?

However, Hariri suspended his decision to resign as prime minister on Wednesday after holding a private meeting with Aoun in the Lebanese capital, Beirut.

“Today I presented my resignation to the president and he urged me to hold onto it for more dialogue about its reasons and its political underpinnings… and I accepted,” he said during a televised speech at the country’s presidential palace.

“I will do so in hopes that it will renew talks to strengthen our unity and resolve internal conflicts we have and how they reflect in our relations with our Arab brothers,” Hariri added.

“At this time, Lebanon needs exceptional efforts from everyone in the face of upcoming challenges… I look forward today to a real partnership with all of the political parties to put Lebanon’s interest on top of anything else.”

He emphasized the need of commitment from parties to keep Lebanon out of regional conflicts, referring to Iran-backed Hezbollah whose regional role is a source of deep concern for Saudi Arabia.

According to Zeina Khodr from Al Jazeera, Hariri’s tone has shifted since he gave his resignation speech.

“He [Hariri] didn’t even mention Hezbollah or Iran… He even said that he’s looking forward to a partnership with all political parties in the country.” Khodr said adding that she believes that intensive discussions behind closed doors occurred.

“The resignation was an attempt by Saudi Arabia to curb Hezbollah’s influence… That attempt backfired… Hariri was conciliatory in his message.”

In the international arena there have been calls for stability in Lebanon. The US warned regional powers against using the country for proxy conflicts. The UN has also called for stability in Lebanon.

*Written by Suna Nur Sarihan. 

Announced on November 4, the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri shook the country and sent a shock wave across the region. Saudi Arabia’s offensive against Iran is now expanding on all fronts with all the relevant risks. But does the young Crown Prince, at the initiative of this strategy, have the means of his policy?

Beirut. It is an understatement to say that the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, announced on Nov. 4 from Riyadh, has taken everyone by surprise here. And the astonishment is in all, both in ordinary people that started to follow the news channels continuously once again, and in politicians and journalists, embarrassed to puzzle out the reasons for this unexpected crisis. Of course, the stability of Lebanon was a complex, uncertain, miraculous alchemy, some said, which surprised all outside observers and the Lebanese themselves. Yet, despite the war in Syria and the influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees from that country and an economic outlook more than worrying, Lebanon seemed to maintain an appearance of peace. The agreement for the election of Michel Aoun to the presidency on October 31, 2016 following the accession to the post of prime minister Saad Hariri and the formation of a government in which the essential political forces, including the Hezbollah, coexisted seemed to guarantee that the country would remain safe from regional turbulence, especially from the cold war between Tehran and Riyadh. And this happened despite an economy in a situation much more worrying than the local or external analysts seem to realize.

So what exactly happened? We now begin to get more insight into the course of events that led to this new crisis. It is on November 2nd that Saad Hariri was invited to Saudi Arabia to meet the King. There was nothing surprising about this invitation as Hariri has dual Lebanese and Saudi nationality and is a frequent visitor to the kingdom where he had gone on October 31. On this visit, we are informed that the authorities then expressed their concerns about the influence of Hezbollah. However, on his return, Hariri seemed, according to his close circle, rather reassured, having explained to his interlocutors that he could not close this party, which possess a great political as well as a military force. Nothing foreshadowed what would follow. He therefore flied to Riyadh without any concern on November 3rd. But as soon as he arrived, he was given an unusual treatment: as the Saudis had asked him to come without any advisor, he was assigned to his villa in Riyadh, deprived of his mobile phone and any means of communication with the outside world. The next day he was seen by Mohammed Ben Salman (MBS), the Crown Prince and son of the King, and summoned to resign. He was forced to read a written speech in advance. Hariri denounced Iran’s hold on Lebanon, Hezbollah’s weight and the risks that would weigh on his life. This speech amazed everybody including his followers, as none of his earlier statements have suggested a recent threat to his life. It is true that never in the history of international diplomacy had we seen a head of government held in a foreign country and announced his resignation.

Why did Saudis, who seemed to hold with the agreement of 2016 for the government of national unity in Lebanon, make this change? It must be seen as the claw of the strongman of the kingdom who, at the same time, consolidated his grip on power by getting rid of his rivals, in a brutal undertaking unprecedented in the history of the kingdom, that some compared, in a much exaggerated way, to a “night of long knives” in Nazi Germany in 1934. But what is the relationship, if any, between the purge in Arabia and the resignation of Hariri? Everyone seems to ignore it.

The establishment of the new presidency in the United States, which has been stating that the fight against Iran- the only relatively clear axis of its foreign policy, has been perceived by Riyadh as an encouragement. MBS developed strong relationships with the president and his entourage and a few days before the crisis his son-in-law Jared Kushner had visited the kingdom. Now, for the new strongman of Riyadh, it is not only a question of stopping the Iranian thrust, but of carrying out a “rollback” policy, a term used by the Americans during the cold war to indicate their will to push back Communism everywhere it settled.

Israeli support

This Saudi war was launched in Yemen in March 2015, with no great success so far and with catastrophic consequences for the civilian population, then continued with the breaking off of diplomatic relations with Qatar in June 2017. It seems that the kingdom has decided to make Lebanon the third ground of its offensive, just as it is developing a charm offensive towards Baghdad, attempting to counterbalance Tehran’s influence. But, for the moment, the results are not very convincing, and there is the impression that the failures of the Crown Prince push him even further, without having measured the real power relations. Even the US administration seems reluctant to follow it on all sides, as it has shown by expressing a certain neutrality in the crisis of Qatar and not hiding its embarrassment at the departure of Hariri, whom it had received at the White House in July.

On the other hand, in Israel, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu does not hide his support for the Saudis. As early as November 4, he was tweeting that Hariri’s resignation should be seen as an awakening call for the international community and a call to take action “against Iran’s aggression aimed at transforming Syria into a second Lebanon as well.” In a message sent to all missions abroad, Israel called its diplomats to support Saudi Arabia. However, a number of voices warn against an exaggerated adventurism, especially since Arabia does not have the military means for a confrontation, which would be the Israeli responsibility. In an article published in Haaretz, Daniel Shapiro, former US ambassador to Israel, published an eloquent title: “Saudi Arabia opens a new front against Iran and wants Israel to do the dirty work.” A conclusion shared by the journalist Amos Harel who notes the risk of a possible escalation from an unplanned incident. “If Saudi Arabia fires the flames between the parties, the danger becomes tangible.”

If Israel can, at some point, decide to engage in a new conflict with Hezbollah, it will not do so to please the Saudis, even though Hassan Nasrallah, the organization’s secretary-general, claimed that Riyadh had promised billions of dollars in Tel Aviv if it triggered a war. A clash with Hezbollah, which could spill over into Syria, where Iran has strengthened its positions and Russia is active, is not without major risks for Israel. Especially since Hezbollah made it clear that in the case of bombing Lebanese cities, no metropolis, not even Tel-Aviv, would be immune. Threats that are not underestimated are taken lightly in Israel.

In recent days, the Lebanese capital has become covered in “We are all Saad” posters, reminiscent of those that had been posted on the eve of the January 2011 revolution in Egypt “We are all Khalid Said,” a kid kidnapped by police and died under torture in one of Hosni Mubarak prisons. Participants in the November 12th marathon wore armbands “We run for you.” Some posters of MBS posted in Tripoli, the large northern Sunni city and stronghold of radical groups, had to be removed, many of them burned. President Michel Aoun has called for the return of the Prime Minister to Lebanon. The different political parties formulate this same requirement across the political spectrum, a rather rare national unity. The Future Movement, political party of the prime minister, while condemning the anti-Saudi campaigns, affirmed the need to see Saad return to the country, a question of “dignity” was specified, and refused to consider another leader – several media had written that the Saudis wanted to replace Saad by his older brother Bahaa. The Saudi Arabian Minister of Gulf Affairs and former general and former ambassador to Iraq Thamer Sabhan, replied by twitter that this “passion” for Saad Hariri was very surprising coming from those who, according to him, “had murdered his father Rafic and Lebanon’s hope for a peaceful and moderate life. “

Yet this national unity undermines Saudi projects. The majority of Lebanon, though accustomed to foreign intervention, has taken such blatant interference in the country’s internal affairs as an insult to their dignity. And, everyone knows, the Future Movement, the main Sunni formation very weakened, is quite incapable (even if it desires so) of building a coalition broad enough to exclude Hezbollah from power, not to mention confronting it militarily.

It is probably for these reasons that Hariri was finally authorized to fly to France and will probably return to Beirut. But it is not known if he will maintain his decision to resign or not. And what will be the next moves of the Saudis, after what appears to be a fiasco for them? What will the external powers do, especially the United States but also Russia involved in Syria? Will France be worried about the fate of Lebanon and who will try to play the intermediaries? No one can answer. But, as Peter Harling writes in a tribune of the daily newspaper Le Monde, “Lebanon looks like a plane whose pilot jumped into a parachute.” And the question everyone is asking is, “where will the plane crash?”

Amid the already simmering state of affairs in the Middle East, Gulf states have delivered just another bombshell. After Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have also asked their nationals to leave Lebanon immediately, urging citizens not to travel to Lebanon from any station of the world.

The latest development follows Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri’s resignation on his visit to Saudi Arabia past weekend. Also last week Saudi Arabia claimed to have intercepted a ballistic missile that was targeted from neighboring country Yemen, where the Kingdom has been involved in an armed campaign for the past two years.

After Hariri’s resignation, analysts around the world had suggested that the move might have come on Saudi directions, and speculated that it could trigger region-wide consequences. As Lebanon is already on the brink, the current move by the Gulf states could be a step towards the execution of what the analysts had been fearing: a military operation against Hezbollah – a Lebanese militia group, which also has share in the government. The operation is expected to be led by Israel, with which Gulf states of late have been cozying up.

Hezbollah is closely associated with Iran and has thousands of militants fighting in Syria on behalf of the Iranian administration. Lately the side has made significant gains in Syria and Iranian influence is seen increasing across the region, a worry for Arab Gulf states who see Iranian ideology, a mix of Shiism, Persianism and so called Islamism, as an existential threat.

Meanwhile, Hariri’s whereabouts are unknown and his Future Movement party, appealed to him on Thursday to return to Lebanon to “restore the dignity of the country.”

Lebanese officials claim Saudi Arabia might have put Hariri under house arrest, which however was denied by the Saudis.

Lebanon’s President, Michel Aoun, is expected to call on the international community, the Arab League, the United States, the United Kingdom, China and Russia to help uncover the reason behind Hariri’s unexpected resignation.

US admits meeting Hariri, Russia threatens

The United States State Department admitted that the US charge d’affaires in Riyadh, met Saad Hariri on Wednesday without elaborating on where the meeting was held.

Calling the talks “sensitive, private, diplomatic conversations,” State dept spokeswoman Heather Nauert referred to the Saudi government and the office of Hariri to know Hariri’s status.

In another development, Russia’s ambassador to Lebanon, Alexander Zasypkin, threatened on Thursday to refer Hariri’s case to the UN Security Council if the “ambiguity” continues, citing Lebanon’s matter of sovereignty with respect to Hariri’s return.