It should matter little to the Chinese that American diplomats and a handful of their western allies will not be attending the Beijing Winter Olympics in February. What truly matters is that the Russians are coming.

The above is not an arbitrary statement. It is supported with facts. According to a survey conducted by China’s Global Times newspaper, the majority of the Chinese people value their country’s relations with Russia more than that of the EU and certainly more than that of the United States. The newspaper reported that such a finding makes it “the first time in 15 years that China-US ties did not top the list of the important bilateral relations in the Global Times annual survey.”

In fact, some kind of an alliance is already forming between China and Russia. The fact that the Chinese people are taking note of this and are supporting their government’s drive towards greater integration – political, economic and geostrategic – between Beijing and Moscow, indicates that the informal and potentially formal alliance is a long-term strategy for both nations.

American hostilities towards China, as seen by the Chinese, have become unbearable, and the Chinese people and government seem to have lost, not only any trust, however modest, of Washington, but of its own political system as well. 66 percent of all Chinese either disapproved of the US democratic system – or whatever remains of it – or believe that US democracy has sharply declined. Ironically, the vast majority of Americans share such a bleak view of their own country, according to a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in 2019 and again by the Michigan Public Policy Survey in 2021.

This leads us to two possible conclusions: First, the Chinese people will not be pushing for an American-style democracy any time soon and, second, the Chinese trust in the US does not hinge on what political party controls the White House or Congress.

While the Chinese negative view of the US is unmistakably clear, Beijing remains hopeful that existing divisions with the European Union would allow it to expand economically in a region that is rife with financial and political opportunities, thus strategic growth. This fact offers China and Russia yet another area of potential cooperation, as Russia is also keen to expand into the European markets using its recently completed Nord Stream 2 gas project. Though Europe is already struggling with gas shortages, Europeans are divided on whether Russia should be allowed to claim a massive geostrategic influence by having such sway over the EU energy needs.

Germany is worried that allowing Nord Stream 2 to operate would make it too dependent on Russian gas supplies.

Germany, which already receives nearly a third of its gas supplies from Russia – through Nord Stream 1 – is worried that allowing Nord Stream 2 to operate would make it too dependent on Russian gas supplies. Under intense pressure from Washington, Germany is caught between a rock and a hard place:  it needs Russian gas to keep its economy afloat, but is worried about American retaliation. To appease Washington, the German government threatened, on December 16, to block the new pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine. But is Germany in a position that allows it to make such demands?

In the face of these vastly changing realities, the US seems to be running out of options. The Summit for Democracy, orchestrated by Washington last December, seemed like a desperate cry for attention as opposed to celebrating the supposed democratic countries. 111 countries participated in the conference.

The participants were handpicked by Washington and included such countries as Israel, Albania and Ukraine. China and Russia were, of course, excluded, not because of their lack of democratic credentials – such notions are often of no relevance to the politicized US definition of ‘democracy’ – but because they, along with others, were meant to be left isolated in the latest US hegemonic move.

The conference, expectedly, turned out to be an exercise in futility. Needless to say, the US is in no position to give democracy lessons to anyone. The attempted coup in Washington by tens of thousands of angry US militants on January 6, 2021 – coupled with various opinion polls attesting to Americans’ lack of faith in their elected institutions – places the US democracy brand at an all-time low.

As the US grows desperate in its tactics – aside from increasingly ineffectual sanctions, aggressive language and the relentless waving of the democracy card – China and Russia continue to draw closer to one another, on all fronts. In an essay entitled ‘Respecting People’s Democratic Rights’, written jointly by the ambassadors of Beijing and Moscow in Washington, Qin Gang and Anatoly Antonov wrote in the National Interest magazine that the democracy summit was “an evident product of (US’s) Cold-War mentality,” which “will stoke up ideological confrontation and a rift in the world, creating new ‘dividing lines’.”

But there is more than their mutual rejection of American hostilities that is bringing China and Russia closer. The two countries are not motivated by their fear of the American military or some NATO invasion. Russia’s and China’s militaries are moving from strength to strength and neither country is experiencing the anxiety often felt by smaller, weaker and relatively isolated countries that have faced direct or indirect US military threats.

Neither Russia nor China are afraid of direct or indirect US military threats.

To push back against possible NATO expansion, the Russian military is actively mobilizing in various regions at its western borders. For its part, the Chinese military has made it clear that any US-led attempt aimed at altering the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait would provoke an immediate military retaliation. In a virtual meeting with the US President, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned Biden on November 16 that the US was “playing with fire”. “Whoever plays with fire will get burnt,” he threatened.

The Chinese-Russian alliance aims largely at defending the two countries’ regional and international interests, which are in constant expansion. In the case of China, the country is now a member of what is considered the world’s largest economic pact. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which was officiated on January 1, covers a global market that caters to around 30 percent of the world’s population.

Russia, too, operates based on multiple regional and international alliances. One of these military alliances is the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which is currently involved in ‘peacekeeping’ operations in Kazakhstan. From Syria in the Middle East, to Venezuela in South America to Mali in West Africa and beyond, Russia’s military influence has increased to the extent that, in September 2021, Moscow signed military cooperation agreements with Africa’s two most populous nations, Nigeria and Ethiopia, challenging the traditional dominance of the US and France on the African continent.

Informally, China and Russia are already operating according to a regional and global model that can be compared to that of the now-defunct Warsaw Treaty Organization (1955-91), a political and military alliance between the Soviet Union and several Eastern European countries that aimed at counter-balancing the US-led NATO alliance. The Warsaw Pact pushed back against US-led western hegemony and labored to protect the interests of the pact’s members throughout the world. History seems to be repeating itself, though under different designations.

The recent exchange of verbal barbs between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden has sparked a debate across politicians and media experts, many of whom have predicted an inevitable shutdown of the Russia-U.S. relations. But as the tension between the countries escalates, both leaders seem to be stalling for time before the dramatic showdown.

After Biden’s affirmative answer to the question of whether he thought Putin was a killer by the anchor of the morning television program Good Morning America, the Russian president did not keep Washington waiting for feedback and responded in a typical sarcastic and icy fashion, saying, “It takes one to know one” and wishing Biden good health.

Biden’s strong statement was a flashback to the Bill O’Reilly remark when he called Putin a killer during an interview with Donald Trump back in 2017. However, at that time, Trump has said, “There are a lot of killers. We have a lot of killers.” Thus, Trump pointed not directly at Putin, but rather at the U.S. foreign policy. Yet, Biden, unlike Trump, clearly meant that Washington’s intention is to end any ties with Russia. It was a well-planned gesture aimed at showing the current U.S. administration’s attitude towards the Kremlin.

Obama-level anti-Russia policy

Philip Butler, an American geopolitical journalist and author of the book Putin’s Praetorians, an Amazon bestseller, states, “It’s clear to everyone familiar with geopolitics that the Biden presidency will be a continuation of Obama-level anti-Russia policy. Only the Western order is more desperate now than before.” He adds, “And for the current U.S. establishment, Russia is the foe to be vanquished.”

Indeed, in the eyes of the White House, Russia is a weak link in the global economic chain that poses neither a threat nor real economic and trade competition for the United States. But as Russia still dominates the post-Soviet space, borders with China (the top U.S. economic competitor), and spreads over a huge territory that has grown even further after the annexation of Crimea, Washington seems to have no quick and efficient strategy to extract Moscow – a painful eyesore in the U.S. hegemonic strategy – from the global players list.

In fact, the United States’ top goal today is to overcome China’s economic rise. The focus of Washington’s trade competition has switched from Moscow to Beijing. According to the World Bank, China’s economy amounted to $22.5 trillion in 2019, putting the United States in second place ($20.5 trillion), and the European Union in third ($19.9 trillion). From heavy equipment industry to high-tech innovations, China’s share of the global market is growing faster than that of the United States.

Meanwhile, Russia is aware that it is no longer a rising nation. Its economic institutions have proven to be weak despite the Kremlin’s global ambitions. The only way for it to keep the power balance with the U.S. now is to strengthen its ties with Asia.

Russia’s rapid turn to the East

According to Andrey Rusakov, director of the Center of European and Asian Studies at the Ural State University of Economics in Russia, this will result in Russia’s rapid turn to the East and its further economic and political integration with China. For instance, by 2024, Russia-China trade is set to double and reach $200 billion while at the end of the last year the defense ministers of the two countries extended a ballistic-missile agreement.

It’s true that Moscow remains an enduring military power, which is why it continues to be an important player in the global political arena and a major factor in U.S. strategy. According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, based on market exchange rates, Russia’s military spending increased to $65 billion in 2019. However, when it comes to comparing defense spending across countries, the method based on the use of purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates claims to be more methodologically robust and objective.

PPP exchange rates show that in 2015-2020 Russia’s military spending ranged annually between $150 billion and $180 billion, overcoming China’s spending. While the U.S. economic leadership is absolute and notwithstanding Moscow’s heavy investments in war-torn zones across the Middle East and North Africa, which are often of strategic interest to the U.S., Russia still manages to significantly counterbalance Washington.

Future scenarios

Trying to imagine the future scenarios of the Putin-Biden diplomatic relations, one can have no expectations that Russia will take a step towards the U.S. There are two main reasons for this. The first is the surging demonization by Washington of every Russian move.

“Vilification of Russia has become a U.S. brand identity that results in sanctions and accusations against Moscow as well as concrete political decisions up to the allocation of funds to fight the ‘Russian threat.’ All this is reminiscent of the Cold War style of the USSR-USA era. Strong confrontation on many international issues like Ukraine, Syria, the Nord Stream as well as Russian internal policy (the Navalny case) is again on the agenda today,” summarizes Rusakov.

In this scenario, the Kremlin’s position will remain uncompromising for as long as possible as Russia keeps stressing its position of non-interference in other countries’ affairs and, thus, will not tolerate such an approach by others.

The second reason why the U.S.-Russia relations are deadlocked lies in Putin’s ego and proud character, which often outweighs common sense. In this regard, Russia should take the example of its Chinese partner and friend Xi Jinping who, despite his ambitions of global economic leadership, gets along with almost all world leaders.

Obviously, the ever-continuing love-hate relationship between Russia and the U.S. will persist. Biden’s hostile tone dispelled any myths of a possible thawing of U.S.-Russia diplomatic ties. However, once relations reach a tipping point, the outcome might be much more dramatic than one can imagine. At the end of the day, the spread of nuclear technology, global warming, and ecology challenges are more important than personal animosity and macho responses.