G
ulf security has reached a historic turning point in recent years amid shifting global power balances and deepening regional crises. Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani’s call to bring the Gulf states and Iran together within a shared regional security framework stands out as one of the most tangible diplomatic manifestations of this search.
Al Thani’s description of the region’s recent conflicts as a “wake-up call” for all actors exposes the fundamental shortcomings of the existing security equation. Qatar’s proposal should therefore be understood not merely as an isolated diplomatic initiative by Doha, but as an expression of regional actors’ desire to assume greater responsibility and initiative over their own security.
Underlying this ambition are the limitations of security policies pursued for decades. For a long time, Gulf states built their security strategies largely around military alliances and defence agreements with actors outside the region, particularly the United States.
However, recent conflicts have clearly demonstrated that external security guarantees alone are insufficient to establish regional stability. The direct targeting of energy facilities, critical infrastructure and maritime navigation routes has shown that security cannot be ensured solely through conventional military capabilities or alliance commitments.
Qatar’s vision does not seek to dismantle existing external alliances or military cooperation with the United States. On the contrary, it aims to add a homegrown, regional layer of security to the existing architecture.
Doha’s model envisages preserving the deterrent power of external security partnerships while establishing direct communication channels and confidence-building mechanisms between the Gulf states and Iran to prevent crises from escalating.
The greatest challenge facing this vision, however, lies in the structural difficulties of integrating Iran into such an architecture.
The crisis between the Gulf states and Tehran is not simply a temporary disagreement. Rather, it represents a deeply entrenched structure of mistrust shaped by ideological divisions, competition for regional influence, missile programmes, maritime security risks and the activities of non-state armed actors.
From Iran’s perspective, meanwhile, the US military presence in the region and new security partnerships with Israel are regarded as threats in their own right.
Given this profound asymmetry, the establishment of a NATO-style Gulf-Iran security alliance based on collective defence is unrealistic in the short or medium term.
The success of Qatar’s proposal should not, in any case, be measured against such maximalist expectations. A more feasible alternative would be a gradual approach to establishing regional security mechanisms.
In the initial phase, it would be possible to open military communication channels, establish common navigation rules to ensure maritime safety, limit attacks on energy infrastructure and activate direct diplomatic channels during crises.
Such concrete, small-scale measures could, over time, provide the foundation for a more institutionalised framework for regional dialogue.
Another critical factor that will determine the extent to which Qatar’s call gains traction is the absence of a uniform perception of the Iranian threat among members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
While Qatar and Oman have traditionally pursued policies that keep channels of dialogue with Tehran open, the security calculations of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have been shaped by a more uncompromising approach.
Nevertheless, the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in recent years through Chinese mediation has demonstrated that greater space has emerged for diplomacy across the Gulf.
Although this development has not ended the rivalry, it has revealed a willingness to make tensions more manageable.
Qatar’s proposal seeks to transform this current environment of dialogue into a permanent and institutionalised structure.
However, Doha cannot pursue this initiative alone. A more realistic path would involve GCC members first reaching a minimum level of consensus among themselves on security matters, before moving towards an expanded framework that includes Iran.
On the other hand, the inclusive structure proposed by Qatar does not contradict deterrence-oriented military cooperation initiatives such as the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement being developed between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan.
At first glance, robust defence alliances and dialogue-oriented security initiatives may appear contradictory. In reality, however, they represent two complementary dimensions of the same security equation.
While defence agreements and joint military structures strengthen deterrence capabilities, the regional dialogue mechanisms proposed by Qatar seek to reduce the risk of military confrontation arising from miscalculations.
The future of Gulf security will therefore rest not on a single alliance model, but on a multilayered architecture in which deterrence and diplomacy are pursued simultaneously.
This multilayered structure also offers strategic opportunities for Türkiye.
Ankara’s growing defence industry and security cooperation with Gulf countries strengthens regional deterrence, while the diplomatic channels it maintains with Tehran position Türkiye as a facilitating and balancing actor during periods of crisis.
Beyond all these regional and global dynamics, Qatar’s insistence on this proposal is directly rooted in its own economic and national security interests.
With its enormous LNG exports, major investments around the world and ambitious economic transformation objectives, Doha can sustain its position only within a stable and predictable regional environment.
Moreover, the extensive economic transformation visions being pursued by neighbouring countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE also require an uninterrupted environment of regional peace.
A large-scale war breaking out in the Gulf has the potential to directly paralyse the economic infrastructure and trade routes of the entire region, including Qatar.
Regional stability is therefore not an abstract aspiration for Qatar, but a prerequisite for its national development.
Doha’s mediation diplomacy on the global stage is also an extension of this logic. Its ability to communicate simultaneously with different, and even adversarial, actors gives Qatar a critical role as a “safety valve” during regional crises.
Ultimately, Prime Minister Al Thani’s call for a new security architecture encompassing the Gulf states and Iran is not a straightforward project that can be implemented in all its dimensions in the short term.
Deep-rooted mistrust between the parties, asymmetric threat perceptions, the prominent role occupied by external actors within the existing framework, and Iran’s reluctance to make concrete security commitments constitute the most significant obstacles to the process.
Nevertheless, it would also be a mistake to dismiss the proposal as a utopian diplomatic aspiration.
Recent crises have demonstrated the fragility of the existing externally dependent security structure. This reality is compelling regional actors to establish gradual and flexible dialogue mechanisms.
Qatar’s initiative clearly demonstrates that Gulf security can no longer be maintained solely under a security umbrella provided by external powers. Instead, the region needs a homegrown and inclusive approach in which regional countries assume direct responsibility.
Although time will tell to what extent this initiative can be institutionalised, the reality that a Gulf security architecture excluding Iran is unsustainable is becoming increasingly apparent.
The new security concept proposed by Qatar offers an indispensable vision for the Gulf’s future stability.
Although deep-rooted mistrust and asymmetric threat perceptions among the parties may slow the process, the limitations of the traditional externally dependent architecture are pushing regional actors towards flexible and gradual dialogue mechanisms.
The diplomatic initiative launched by Doha not only seeks to safeguard economic interests but also paves the way for regional countries to have a greater say in determining their own future.
In the long term, this multilayered structure, combining deterrence with diplomacy, represents the most rational roadmap for building lasting peace and collective security in the Gulf.
(Orignally published in Turkish by Kriter)
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