Now that the American people have made their decision, the protectionist approach employed by Trump in the election campaign matters not only for the U.S. but also for the global economy. In this sense, what the world wonders now is to what extent he will deliver on those harsh pledges. Will he continue to be the furious Trump of the campaign or become an even-tempered President when he assumes office? Or will a balance be found in between? To be honest, nobody knows the answer. However, the arguments of interest can be analyzed based on the ongoing situation and the potential risks thereby.The free trade agreements (FTA) that the President-to-be obviously despised during his election campaign would be a good starting point for this purpose. This is because Trump frequently yelled at former U.S. governments for having signed such horrible deals and causing substantial losses for the domestic economy. By the way, whenever he referred to the harms of the FTAs, he actually – consciously or not – pointed to a total of 14 agreements, which constituted 41 percent of the total bilateral trade of the U.S. in 2015. This is not a trivial dynamic, at all!

So, Trump is expected to come down on Mexico in particular, as he has been blaming the southern neighbor in a visibly bad way.

On the other hand, the FTA that Trump levied the toughest war on during the campaign period was admittedly the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was defined by him as “the most horrible trade deal ever.” So, Trump is expected to come down on Mexico in particular, as he has been blaming the southern neighbor in a visibly bad way. From an economic perspective, this can be thought to mainly stem from the relatively competitive advantages of Mexico. It is a well-known fact that there are lucrative incentives for American companies to operate in the neighboring country.

In this sense, the Mexican economy has fair concerns nowadays due to its rather concentrated market structure that is highly dependent on the demand flowing from the U.S. And beyond the bilateral trade relations, the loss of confidence and the uncertainties that have emerged after November 8 pose indirect risks for the country’s economy. However, the fact that the two economies are highly integrated in various sectors complicates the case. This is likewise the situation for Canada, the top destination for U.S. merchandise exports and a critical part of the U.S. supply chain.

At this point, it should be emphasized that based on 2015 data NAFTA accounts for approximately 75 percent of the total bilateral trade of the U.S. within its FTA portfolio. Therefore, it is evident that the U.S. has considerably strong ties with its NAFTA markets. As Canada and Mexico rank within the top three trade partners of the U.S., it will not be an easy job to put a lock on the NAFTA door from a realistic point of view. Yet it is likely that Trump will take an initiative and attempt to fix the disadvantageous terms of the deal for his country. In such a scenario, potential energy collaborations as well as the older-than-NAFTA free trade relationship between the U.S. and Canada might be a factor for tipping the balance.

Moreover, Canada and Mexico are also prospective partners for another trade deal frequently attacked by Trump: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).  As an integral part of Obama’s Asia Pivot strategy, the TPP attempts to bring 12 economies together and create a strong cooperation in the Asia-Pacific. For the U.S., it was supposed to serve as a tool against China’s increasing dominance in the region. However, Trump claims that the deal is a complicated piece of garbage that would cause losses to the U.S. economy in case it is ratified. Thus, considering also the escalated disapproval regarding the deal, it would not be irrational to expect the new President to scrap it or put it in cold storage at least. Likewise, it is also believed that the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which is Obama’s economic project on the Atlantic front and an admittedly less mature initiative than the TPP, will probably be slowed down by the President-elect.

On the other hand, a blow to the TPP by Trump will not only deprive the associated parties of the Trans-Pacific collaboration but also will offer an opportunity for China. An American administration that turns its back on the TPP would encourage the Chinese project called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) that aims to gather the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) group and six other big economies in the region under one umbrella.

Nevertheless, China also has concerns related to the new U.S. president, as it is a country frequently disparaged by him in the election period.

Nevertheless, China also has concerns related to the new U.S. president, as it is a country frequently disparaged by him in the election period. In 2015, China was the third largest single-country destination for U.S. merchandise exports while it ranked the first source for U.S. imports. While the bilateral trade between the two partners is quite robust, the merchandise trade deficit with China is known to infuriate Donald Trump. In that regard, he has vowed to declare China a currency manipulator and slap punitive duties on Chinese imports. The two countries are also known to have long-standing problems including the failure of China to respect U.S. intellectual and property rights.

Yet it is uncertain if Trump would overstep the mark and provoke China into a tit-for-tat retaliation. While the jurisdiction of the U.S. Congress will play a critical role at that point, an aggressive scenario could end up with the violation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules for both parties and endanger the order of the global economy as well.

To be sure, Trump is not the first U.S. presidential candidate who fed his campaign with a nationalist trade agenda.

To be sure, Trump is not the first U.S. presidential candidate who fed his campaign with a nationalist trade agenda. Yet even the uncertainties he has created so far have been enough to scare the global markets. The trade liberalization process started after World War II with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and reinforced with the creation of the WTO, now seems to face the risk of losing support from its pioneering country. So, in an era where trade faces stubborn challenges, the new U.S. President’s isolationist pledges draw a grey picture for the world economy and shake economic confidence.

This addresses certain implications for emerging economies, in particular. Beyond countries such as Mexico and China, which are directly associated with Trump’s promises, those who look forward to a recovering world trade encounter some indirect risks. Turkey is one of those countries, as well. Moreover, projections on the future outlook of the U.S. economy inarguably augment the relevant risks. The sharp moves in the Turkish markets observed after November 8 indicate the significance of the matter. On the other hand, apart from the aforementioned global uncertainties caused by the U.S. election results, Trump’s relationships with the EU, Russia and Iran are also likely to produce complicated economic effects for Turkey in positive or negative ways. Everything depends on the extent to which he will deliver on his unconventionally sharp pledges. That is why the first half of 2017 will be a critical period for the actors of the world economy to figure out how the new U.S. administration will lead the way.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s two-day visit to Pakistan on November 16 is largely viewed as a fresh move to give impetus to Islamabad-Ankara bilateral ties in trade, defence, education, and other sectors. Next year will mark the 70th year of Pakistan-Turkey diplomatic ties, which Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has pledged to celebrate with “zeal and enthusiasm.”

The current trade volume between Islamabad and Ankara is recorded at around $500 million in 2014-15, with exports to Turkey recorded at $309.19 million and imports at $191.05 million, according to Pakistan’s Ministry of Commerce. In August, Pakistan and Turkey agreed to eliminate 85% of tariffs in an attempt to enhance trade, part of a larger Free Trade Agreement (FTA) under negotiation.

Ahead of Erdogan’s visit, Pakistan declined to extend the visas of 108 Turkish nationals and their families, all teachers at a network of private schools with ties to Fethullah Gulen. Turkish officials, including President Erdogan, have been calling for Islamabad to close the Gulen-linked schools for months, saying they were part of a terror organization behind the coup attempt and years of attempts at destabilization in the country, and were a threat to Pakistan as well.

“We have to be very careful with such organizations and their causing risk and threat for the security and stability of every country where they have presence,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in Islamabad this August.

In his address to a joint session of Pakistan’s parliament, the third such occasion, Erdogan expressed his gratitude by saying that “I am thankful for the solidarity demonstrated by the Pakistan on this matter… And for their decisive stance against this organization.”

“It is imperative to dismantle this evil network,” Erdogan said. “The terrorist organization is a threat to the security and public order of Pakistan.”

Islamabad had already set a November 20 deadline for Pak-Turk staff to leave the country. However, Erdogan assured the students who were studying in the Pak-Turk schools would be taken care of with the highest standards, and Islamabad has said arrangements will be made to ensure the schools continue to function, but under a new administration.

http://thenewturkey.org/sino-turkish-relations-in-the-age-of-global-transformation/

Many Pakistanis have witnessed three military administrations themselves; and have praised Erdogan and the public’s success at foiling the July 15 coup. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif himself was jailed and exiled after a military coup in 1999, after a coup by the head of the military, Gen. Pervez Musharraf. Musharraf, who spent his childhood in Turkey, has repeatedly praised the Turkish military for its role in leading Turkey. Sharif returned from exile in 2007, and months of street protests by his followers and other civilian leaders forced Musharraf’s resignation within a year.

During Erdogan’s visit, Sharif told Parliament the way Turkey “defeated this illegal assault on democracy was remarkable.” In May, Sharif acted as a witness at the marriage of President Erdogan’s daughter in Istanbul, a reflection of the closeness of the two leaders, who head countries trying to emerge from a long history of military interventions.

While political leaders in Pakistan have agreed with Islamabad’s decision to deport the Pak-Turk teachers, some, like Hamid Mir, a political commentator and a senior journalist based in Islamabad, have speculated the actions may have been a product of the Sharif-Erdogan relationship, and that Islamabad and Ankara failed to make a public case for why the steps should be taken.

Support for Pakistan’s Kashmir Policy

Erdogan offered support for Islamabad at a time of heightened cross border tensions in the disputed region of Kashmir, where scores of civilians have been killed since September in firing between Pakistani and Indian soldiers.

Referring to the Kashmir issue, Erdogan said the dispute of Kashmir should be resolved by Islamabad and New Delhi in line with UN resolutions and the wishes of Kashmiri people.

He stressed the need for stepped up cooperation against terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda and its affiliate Daesh who he said are the agents of the war carried out against Islam.

He pledged Pakistan-Turkey ties would be deepened further through the Strategic Cooperation Council, which was established in 2009 between Ankara and Islamabad.

Since then, both the countries have signed 51 agreements and documents within the council.

Under the new arrangements between Pakistan and Turkey, 500 Pakistani students would be able to go to Turkey for PhD scholarships every year in light of a document signed between Pakistan’s Higher Education Commission and the Turkish higher education body.

Sharif lauded Turkey’s bid for Pakistan to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). “Our close relationship serves as a stability factor in the region,” Sharif said of Pakistan-Turkey cooperation.

Pakistan has already applied for the membership of the 48-member organization. Turkey has been supporting Pakistan’s membership in the NSG—the 48-member group, which regulates international nuclear commerce.

Turkey is supporting a call for a criteria-based approach for admitting non-NPT countries.

Earlier, Pakistan Army Chief General Raheel Sharif while welcoming Erdogan, said Islamabad and Ankara have brotherly relations and both countries are time-tested friends.

A statement from the Presidency stated that Erdogan agreed to the idea floated by President Mamnoon Hussain regarding a long-term bilateral defence cooperation agreement.

Islamabad and Turkey are already pursuing a number of defence collaboration projects with Anakara is helping Islamabad with the midlife upgrade of Khalid-Class Submarines and the two sides also collaborated in building a Naval Fleet Tanker.

In addition, Turkey is interested in purchasing MFI-17 Super Mushshak aircraft from Pakistan.

Expanding Economic Cooperation

Pakistan and Turkey have agreed on the elimination of 85% of tariffs, a deal that will include regulatory duties and additional duties in case of Pakistan and additional duties and mass housing fund duties in case of Turkey.

Pakistan’s exports to Turkey are likely to increase by $500million to $600 million in a short span of time. Major trade items between Pakistan and Turkey include fabrics, beverages, spirits and vinegar, plastics, chemicals and machinery.

Pakistan’s exports are concentrated in construction, transportation, other business services and government services while imports are concentrated in transportation, other business services, travel, construction, and government services.

“In the next few years, with the passage of time trade and commerce relations between the two countries will reach new heights,” said Hassan Askari Rizvi, a noted political analyst. Both the leaderships have pledged to expand trade at a time when a number of Turkish companies have been working in Pakistan, he added. ”The relationship is mutually beneficial for both Islamabad and Ankara,” Rizvi concluded.