As a presidential hopeful in November 2019, Joe Biden addressed the Jamal Khashoggi murder case and Yemen conflict. He vowed to treat Saudi Arabia as a global “pariah”. Biden was participating in a Democratic primary debate and speaking to a crowd at odds with then-President Donald Trump’s unconditional support for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS). However, as president, he has made it clear that his administration has no plans to recognize the oil-rich kingdom as anything close to a pariah.

Last month, Saudi Arabia’s deputy defense minister Khalid bin Salman, who is MbS’s brother, paid a visit to Washington. This marked the highest-ranking envoy from Riyadh to visit the American capital in the post-Trump period. The minister met with national security adviser Jake Sullivan and other top US officials including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, and US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl.

The talks focused on strengthening the US-Saudi partnership. The two sides discussed various regional files such as Yemen, Iran, and Lebanon. Notably, because of increasingly advanced Houthi drone attacks against Saudi Arabia and Shi’a militias stepping up their drone strikes against US military bases in Iraq, Iran-backed groups’ regional conduct is of growing concern to both the US and Saudi Arabia.

Against the backdrop of Biden’s decision earlier this year to not impose sanctions on MbS over the US government’s findings on the Khashoggi file, some have criticized Biden for failing to uphold some of his campaign pledges. Khalid bin Salman’s warm reception by Biden administration officials led to some voices in the human rights community expressing outrage, especially given the fact that MbS’s brother is purportedly linked to the Khashoggi murder case.

In Biden’s first major foreign policy speech as president, he announced the end of US support for the Saudi-led military coalition’s “offensive” operations against Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

But the White House’s conclusion is that the US has way too many strategic interests in working with the Saudis to abandon this decades-old partnership over human rights issues. That said, Biden has not maintained Trump’s exact approach to working with Saudi Arabia.

The administration suspended the sales of GBU-39 small diameter and Paveway IV smart bombs to Riyadh. In Biden’s first major foreign policy speech as president, he announced the end of US support for the Saudi-led military coalition’s “offensive” operations against Yemen’s Houthi rebels. However, it is not clear how the administration exactly defines “offensive”, which has given Biden’s administration some wiggle room on this front.

Biden seeks to “convert [the US-Saudi relationship] from an all-weather partnership that mimics an alliance to a conditional partnership, which advances US interests and gives the US scope to pressure Saudi Arabia on human rights,” as Samuel Ramani, a doctoral researcher at Oxford University, told Politics Today. “Biden’s actions, such as releasing the Khashoggi report, announcing the suspension of US offensive support for the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen and withdrawing some additional Patriot missile defense batteries from Saudi Arabia, reflect this aspirational shift.”

Although Biden is at odds with a growing number of more progressive members of his party who may view Riyadh as deserving “pariah” status, the current administration does not believe that the Washington Post writer’s killing or Saudi conduct in Yemen are reasons to walk away from the US’s partnership with the kingdom.

Given the extent to which MbS and Trump grew close, Biden saw a need for rhetoric that would set him apart from Trump.

In 2019/2020, when Biden was seeking the Democratic nomination, he made dramatic statements about Saudi Arabia for reasons pertaining to the Democratic Party’s politics. Given the extent to which MbS and Trump grew close, Biden saw a need for rhetoric that would set him apart from Trump. But it was not in accordance with any realistic expectation of his foreign policy. As Ramani explained, “Biden clearly overshot during the campaign with his label of Saudi Arabia as a pariah and those comments can be seen as a way of contrasting himself from Trump to appeal to the progressives in the Democratic Party.”

Ultimately, realpolitik has settled in. Biden has moved past rhetoric promising to “revitalize our national commitment to advancing human rights and democracy around the world”. From the Oval Office, Biden must deal with the practicalities of conducting foreign policy which, in Biden and virtually all his predecessors’ views, require maintaining relationships with governments that don’t share liberal or western values.

This is not only evident in the US-Saudi relationship. The Biden administration worked closely with Egypt amid the 11-day Gaza-Israel war of May 2021. Additionally, the Biden administration’s tepid response to the Tunisian president’s power grab last month tells us that even if the North African country becomes more authoritarian, the US leadership will in all probability still accommodate Kais Saied.

Moreover, even long before the Trump era, countless US presidents worked closely with an endless number of authoritarian leaders across the world, even some with more blood on their hands than MbS. It is fair to say that Biden’s approach is to be expected from any American president and his campaign rhetoric suggesting otherwise was not genuine.

But even if the White House does not see turning Saudi Arabia into a “pariah” as a viable option, more lawmakers in his party seem to think it is not only a viable option but also a strong moral obligation. The question of how much realpolitik should be shaping the Biden administration’s approach to Riyadh will likely become the source of more intense debate within the Democratic Party, especially after MbS ascends to the throne and becomes the King of Saudi Arabia.

As Psaki said, the administration is involved in “engagement” with Saudi Arabia’s leadership on a “counterpart-to-counterpart” basis. So, if there is a King Mohammed in Riyadh before January 2025, will Biden speak directly to him? It is safe to assume so.

The Joe Biden administration just kicked the ball out of bounds. I am obviously referring to the White House’s response to the Director of National Intelligence’s (DNI) declassified assessment of the Jamal Khashoggi murder.

The U.S., which has long claimed to advocate for human rights chose advancing its strategic interests at the expense of people and human rights in the Middle East. The story of Jamal Khashoggi is only an example of how the U.S., both under Republicans and Democrats, is can twist the truth and choose the side of de facto rulers.

Let’s face it: The Democrats are extraordinarily skilled at aestheticizing and facilitating the multidimensional exploitation of any issue. This time around, they invented a new category for people believed to engage in serious activities against opponents outside their country’s borders – and called it the Khashoggi sanction.

Seventy-six Saudi nationals have thus been subjected to a visa ban, as members of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) security detail, known as the Rapid Intervention Force, were added to the sanctions list.

When it came to the murder itself, however, the Americans even refrained from a symbolic gesture against MBS, whom they apparently hold responsible for Khashoggi’s slaying. The crown prince will now be treated as a minister of defense.

For the record, hardly anyone was surprised to hear what the U.S. ended up doing. In particular, anyone who said that the Biden administration’s references to democracy and human rights wouldn’t actually hurt American geopolitical interests (in fact, just the opposite), had predicted this outcome.

The recalibration of Washington’s relations with Riyadh was expected to be limited in scope. In the end, the United States addressed the Donald Trump administration’s excesses, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s emphasis on American values and call on Saudi Arabia to stop state-sanctioned assassinations merely amounted to a slap on the wrist.

Some pro-Saudi commentators even interpreted the lack of sanctions as an “acquittal.” Indeed, the crown prince had already assumed “symbolic responsibility” as his country’s de facto ruler.

In other words, Biden did not banish MBS as he once promised. He committed to focusing on the future instead.

U.S. rationale in the case

Geopolitical interests trump everything else. Washington opted to preserve its “strategic partnership” with Riyadh that dates back to the end of World War II. The fact that MBS, the de facto ruler, would replace his father, King Salman, and be around for decades persuaded the Biden administration’s decision.

The crown prince had already eliminated his rivals and critics during the Trump presidency when he received preferential treatment. Right now, there is no alternative to MBS.

Any direct action against the Saudi crown prince would have radically changed the balance of power in the Middle East. A new chapter may have begun in relations between the regional powers – Iran, Israel, Turkey and the kingdom.

The Americans need the Saudis to be on their side in Yemen, Iran and Iraq.

At a time when Washington seeks to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal, alienating Riyadh would have also hurt the interests of Israel and the Gulf states.

The Americans need the Saudis to be on their side in Yemen, Iran and even Iraq. Moreover, any attempt to banish MBS may have resulted in his pursuit of closer relations with China and Russia to abandon the kingdom’s traditional alliance with the U.S.

For Republicans and Democrats alike, the superiority of real interests over values is part of the American way of life.

If necessary, the so-called Khashoggi sanctions will be imposed, possibly more harshly, on countries like China and Russia – despite the Saudi crown prince’s exemption – selectively, without risking American interests, and according to double standards.

The Saudi affairs

Biden spoke with Saudi King Salman last week, just before the release of the CIA’s declassified report on the murder of Jamal Khashoggi to exchange views on Yemen, Iran and human rights. It remains unclear how the new administration will “overhaul” the U.S. policy on Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), whom Biden does not consider his counterpart, has been calling the shots since 2017 due to his father’s advanced age. The suspension of arms sales to Riyadh, Washington’s vocal criticism of Saudi involvement in Yemen, the debate on the potential delisting of the Houthi rebels and MBS being implicated in the Khashoggi report are all precursors to the Biden administration’s review of America’s Saudi policy.

Will the Biden administration, which talks a great deal about human rights, target MBS based on the declassified findings? Any attempt to remove from power or significantly contain MBS would clearly create a new balance of power in the region. It would come as a surprise, however, if Washington were to go beyond a symbolic punishment.

The U.S. and the Middle East

Eventually, I believe the Biden administration will be compelled to deal with Middle Eastern issues, including that of Saudi Arabia, for two reasons. The new administration needs to pay close attention to the U.S. presence in the region, from Afghanistan to Iraq to Syria, as well as the pressing issues on the ground.

The U.S. airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Syria were an act of retaliation. Washington had now responded to an earlier attack against its military base in Irbil, Iraq. That “proportionate” military response signals America’s preparedness to use force.