The G20 was defined as the principal platform of global economic governance in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008 as a reflection of the need to conduct a collective crisis-response strategy at the time. While the global crisis exploded in the U.S. sub-prime mortgage market and then spread to Europe and the emerging economies, a coordinated response strategy was devised that will encourage all stakeholders to share the burden of reestablishing stability and providing liquidity to the international markets. The G20 was among the few grand projects that President Obama took over from George W. Bush and continued unabated during his two terms as the U.S. President, since the collective action spirit of the group was in perfect conformity with the coordinate crisis response strategy, as well as the positive image that the U.S. wanted to disseminate globally.

In the early post-crisis years, the G20 was presented as the highest international platform to formulate common strategies aimed at ensuring stability in global trade and financial markets. It was also construed as an inclusive forum on which key political leaders from both the global and emerging powers might come together with representatives from the main regional organizations in order to produce multilateral solutions to pressing global problems. To its credit, the G20 contributed to crucial improvements in the governance of global finance by supporting macro-prudential policies, enlarging the IMF’s lending capacity and increasing transparency procedures of banks and financial institutions in international markets.

However, for the BRICS countries led by China and India, the G20 process carried a much deeper symbolic value in terms of the reconfiguration of the global system. The G20 Summits represented a perfect opportunity for these countries to express their grievances and objections concerning the uneven architecture of global governance, while demanding more say in the running of international political and economic institutions. Likewise, representatives of the developing world were able to raise their voices at the G20 concerning unfair practices in global trade and finance regimes, while pushing for structural reforms at the IMF, World Bank and the WTO for more inclusive and fair development.

However, as the intensity of the global financial crisis faded away and especially as the U.S. economy began to display a robust performance, the expectations of Washington and its main allies from the G20 process were significantly curtailed. The U.S. administration itself did not take the macro-prudential regulations produced by the G20 very seriously; while the institutional reform initiatives for voting and representation at the IMF were never materialized. The U.S. maintained its veto power at the IMF and despite all criticisms the uneven distribution of voting rights among the global and emerging powers were preserved in almost its original form. Moreover, comprehensive transformations took place in the global architecture of world politics and domestic political stages of key global players, which significantly weakened the common agenda of participatory governance at the G20.

As the intensity of the global financial crisis faded and as the U.S. economy began to display a robust performance, the expectations of Washington and its main allies from the G20 process were significantly curtailed. 

The unilateralism of the Trump administration, which was expressed through withdrawal from multilateral international regimes and regional organizations, neo-protectionist economic policies and trade wars, triggered widespread perceptions that the major sponsor of the G20 has cut its support to multilateralism. Moreover, rising geo-political tensions between the U.S. and Russia in critical conflict zones increasingly led to the adoption of hard-power assets, leading some observers to conclude that the prospects of physical military confrontation are higher than the Cold War. Finally, the rising tide of neo-protectionism and trade wars between the U.S. and China heightened concerns regarding the future growth potential of the world economy and the prospective trajectories of global trade and finance. To sum up, American unilateralism, rising tensions between Washington and Moscow in geo-political matters, and trade wars between Washington and Beijing contributed to pessimistic expectations on the eve of the Buenos Aires Summit.

The official theme of this year’s Summit was determined as ‘Fair and Sustainable Development’ with sub-themes on energy efficiency, environment protection, development financing, digital economy, excess steel-production capacity, and modern agriculture. However, key problems in the world economy remain in need of global attention which include the shortage of development capital required to maintain major infrastructure investments. As the development of finance resources of the World Bank are not enough to spur global growth, the entrance of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank to the scene must be welcomed developments. But the U.S. and the Western world are generally suspicious of China’s intensions for global dominance, which causes a cautious reception to the financing opportunities that originate from Beijing. Structural reforms in macro-economic policy making and governance are also needed to rejuvenate global growth dynamics. Objectivity of international credit ratings agencies and prudent regulation of financial markets also constitute other areas of major concern.

Rising geo-political tensions between the U.S. and Russia in critical conflict zones has increasingly led to the adoption of hard-power assets, leading some observers to conclude that the prospects of physical military confrontation are higher than the Cold War. 

Another area of friction that attracts attention concerns ongoing trade wars between the U.S. and China that carry the potential of undermining global growth prospects via deeper and wider confrontation. Neo-protectionism and trade wars which gained momentum via tough political rhetoric, accusations of industrial-technological espionage and sharp tariff increases between Washington and Beijing across a range of sectors raised concerns among the major players of the world economy. On the eve of the G20 Buenos Aires Summit, it looked like Trump was adamant to force China into a corner by using the trade wars card so that he could elicit the best possible deal from them. But if Chinese President Xi Jinping does not offer big enough trade concessions in bilateral negotiations in the future, it is pretty likely that nothing concrete will come out from the G20 proceedings and the agenda of trade wars will be carried towards an indefinite future. As the U.S. economy continues to break historical records in growth, employment and productivity figures and China begins to struggle to maintain the momentum of its export-led growth strategy, a prolonged agenda of trade wars might trigger wider destabilizing effects that might hurt all emerging economies.

The G20 Buenos Aires Summit was shadowed by the new trade deal signed between the U.S., Mexico and Canada (or the so-called US-Mexico-Canada Agreement-USMCA), which was carved out to replace NAFTA via intensive U.S. diplomacy. The message that President Trump tried to give to the global audience through the USMCA was that the U.S. will redefine the conditions of its bilateral and multilateral dealings on the basis of a renewed notion national interest, rather than concerns for regional or global stability.

If Chinese President Xi Jinping does not offer big enough trade concessions in bilateral negotiations in the future, it is pretty likely that nothing concrete will come out of the G20 proceedings and the agenda of trade wars will be carried towards an indefinite future. 

Over the course of last two years, the global image of the U.S. has already been significantly tarnished thanks to the controversial steps towards the NAFTA partners; decision to construct a wall on the Mexican border against migrants; threats towards NATO partners and the EU; withdrawal from various UN platforms, as well as the Paris Climate Accord. The tendency of the U.S. to act in disregard for international law, established norms and previous commitments might trigger collective responses from the EU, China, Russia and emerging powers against unilateral sanctions and trade wars.

While observers will wait for signals of a rapprochement between the U.S. and Russia on the Ukraine crisis, and a trade deal between the ‘G-2’ of the U.S. and China to end the vicious circle of trade wars, swift progress on both counts in the near future remain unrealistic. The new world of multi-polarity will be characterized by issue-based confrontations that are bound to continue.         

The G20 summit in Argentina ended with no major breakthrough or a breakdown but that is not good news for the pressing global challenges. From climate change to international terrorism and from civil wars to refugee crises, there are a host of issues that continue to spread instability throughout the planet. G20 was conceived of as an institution to bring together economically most capable nations to contribute to the resolution of international challenges outside the United Nations framework, which has long been hampered by the inaction of veto-wielding powers at the Security Council.

To be sure, the G20 was never meant to substitute the UN but it was nevertheless supposed to be more flexible and responsive to global problems hindering economic development and stability. The latest convening of the summit avoided any major political dramas but it has not produced much in the way of building a common framework on any of the major issues facing the community of nations.

The final communique of the G20 could not go beyond reaffirming the importance of the multilateral global trading system and had to exclude any criticism of “protectionism” or “unfair trade practices” due to the American and Chinese sensitivities. 

All eyes were on President Trump as he finds himself being challenged at home by the Mueller investigation, which appears to be ending. He also has been the subject of heavy criticism for essentially siding with the Saudi administration in the Khashoggi affair in the name of protecting American interests. Further, Russia’s most recent aggressive actions in Ukraine have forced him to cancel a potential meeting with President Putin. His seemingly temporary truce with China was most likely motivated by the need to avoid yet another major political drama, which could have rattled the markets and cost him support domestically. Despite the fact that he appointed a hardliner to lead the trade negotiations going forward, this temporary halt to the trade wars provided him with some ammunition to sell it as a political victory to his constituency. Despite the multilateral nature of the G20 gathering, the biggest news the U.S. walked away with was still a bilateral one, very much fitting the President’s America First approach.

The U.S. was often the major force driving the big agenda items in these international gatherings but this time around nobody expected it in the first place due to the “America First” president in office. At the same time, here appeared to be no clear substitute for the U.S. leadership either. The major players seemed content with a reduced American role that is not interested in leading the conversation to resolve world’s big problems, economic or otherwise. The final communique could not go beyond reaffirming the importance of the multilateral global trading system and had to exclude any criticism of “protectionism” or “unfair trade practices” due to the American and Chinese sensitivities.

Many observers are just happy that a communique was even possible where the Trump administration has attacked multilateralist institutions established in the past under the U.S. leadership. The unwillingness of the U.S. to support the very principles of these very institutions undermines the effectiveness of G20, especially in the absence of another great power willing to underwrite these principles.

Today, what we are seeing is the increasing irrelevance and greater provincialization of multilateral institutions that are supposed to provide comprehensive global solutions.

While the U.N. has been dysfunctional largely due to the veto powers held by the Security Council member states, the G20 is now becoming ineffective as a result of its “natural leader” to refuse a robust leadership role with a global agenda. That is why, many regional and bilateral issues seemed to be more at the forefront during the summit. The gathering provided yet another opportunity for countries like Turkey to bring the regional issues to the agenda.

Turkey was vocal about the Khashoggi affair, calling on the international community once again to treat it as an affront to international norms. President Erdogan met with President Trump on the sidelines to discuss the status of northern Syria, which has critical national security implications for Turkey. In this sense, Turkey had a successful summit. Nevertheless, the summit underperformed considering the urgency and the seriousness of the global issues facing the planet although some might be content that it ended with a common declaration at the end.

Today, what we are seeing is the increasing irrelevance and greater provincialization of multilateral institutions that are supposed to provide comprehensive global solutions. This reality promises further uncertainty and instability around the world, which is already faced with challenges no single nation can solve on its own. When the most powerful G20 nations cannot unite around a common global agenda, it is becoming increasingly clear that the monumental challenges of the world will remain unattended at least for the time being.      

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is visiting his close allies in the Middle East before attending the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Argentina on November 30. MbS arrived in Egypt on Monday.

After visiting Mohammad b. Zayed in Abu Dhabi on Thursday, and both King Hamad and Crown Prince Salman b. Hamad al-Khalifa in Bahrain on Monday 25 November, his visit to Egypt is the third leg of his first trip abroad since the murder of prominent Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey last month. In Bahrain, MbS was given the Order of Sheikh Isa b. Salman al-Khalifa of the Exceptional Class in recognition of his efforts in supporting and strengthening Saudi Arabia-Bahrain relations.

On his arrival to Cairo on November 26, Crown Prince Salman was greeted by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. In total this is the sixth visit of the Saudi Crown Prince to Cairo, and the second since he assumed the post of Crown Prince in June 2017.

As a result of bilateral agreements, Saudi Arabia is becoming the largest Arab investor in the Egyptian market, and the second largest foreign investor in general, accounting for 11 percent of total foreign investment in Egypt.

During his last visit in March of this year, the two countries signed bilateral agreements involving billions of dollar investments in projects by Saudi Arabia in Egypt. As a result of these agreements, Saudi Arabia is becoming the largest Arab investor in the Egyptian market, and the second largest foreign investor in general, accounting for 11 percent of total foreign investment in Egypt.

Prince Salman is expected to travel to Tunisia after his two-day visit to Egypt before leaving for the G20 in Buenos Aires at the end of the month.

According to news reported by Reuters, Tunisian activists and journalists staged a small protest in the capital Tunis on Monday against Mohammad bin Salman’s planned visit. Turkish newspaper YeniSafak claimed that the Egyptian Civil Democratic Movement, a liberal political movement formed in Egypt in 2017, issued a statement titled ‘Not Welcome,’ criticizing the Crown Prince’s visit to Egypt.

The controversy as to whether Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman will attend the G20 remained high on the political agenda. A new aspect added to this debate was reported by The Guardian, which claimed that Argentina prosecutors are considering charges against MbS at the G20.

*Written by Selahattin Emre Celebi.

The Turkish economy grew by 7.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018. Thanks to this spectacular performance, Turkey ranked second fastest growing economy in the G20, only behind India (7.7 percent) and ahead of China (6.8 percent) and Indonesia (5.1 percent). The average growth rate for the Euro area is only 2.5 percent. The U.S. is marginally better with 2.8 percent. Moreover, this performance of Turkey came at a time when other emerging countries in the G20 club have performed poorly. The growth rates of Mexico and Brazil are just 1.3 and 1.2 percent in the first quarter of 2018, respectively.

One should note that Turkish investment expenditures, arguably the most important sub-category of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), increased by 9.7 percent in this period, which gives an important sign regarding the health of the Turkish economy and her future direction.

Turkey has a very good track record of sustaining a significant level of average long-term growth rate (4.8 percent) for the last 7 decades. While the world economy grew substantially in the aftermath of the World War II (WWII) into the 1970s in general, only some (developing) countries including Turkey managed to sustain their growth performance more or less intact well after the 1970s and even until today. For example, the growth performance of Western Europe was quite bright with a 4.8 percent average growth rate annually in the 1950-1973 period as they were recovering from the tumultuous years between the two world wars and the WWII itself. However, their average growth rate was rather disappointing with around only 2 percent in the post-1973 period. The same pattern held for Eastern Europe, Latin America and the US, albeit with varying degrees.

Thanks to having a relatively high level of long-term average growth rate, the Turkish economy transformed tremendously after WWII. Prior to the war, Turkey had mostly been a rural country with an economy based mostly on agriculture. After the war Turkey began to industrialize with a growing urban population base. The share of urban population increased from less than 20 to over 85 percent and the share of agriculture in GDP plummeted from over 40 percent to around only 6 percent as of 2017.

While this performance has not sufficed for Turkey to become a fully developed country, it never the less made great strides from a very low base to become an upper-middle income country. With this performance, Turkey fared tremendously better than industrialized countries as well as numerous developing countries, beating the world average significantly.

Thanks to this performance, the Turkish economy grew more than 20-fold since WWII, as the Turkish population increased from around 20 to 81 million and GDP per capita more than quadrupled to over 10.000 dollars. In the period between 1950-1980, the Turkish economy had been inward looking and import-substitution growth strategy had been in place. With the adoption of export-oriented growth strategy, Turkey has increasingly become a globally open economy. The volume of external trade of Turkey has tremendously expanded since then, from less than 10 to over 50 percent of GDP.

Moreover, between 2002-2017, the average annual economic growth rate has been 5.7 percent, a tremendous performance, which is somewhat higher than the long-term average and far higher than industrialized countries, and better than most of the developing countries.

Surely, the Turkish economy has her own problems such as current account deficit, as other economies have their own. However, the Turkish economy has showed her resilience and potential time and again in the last 7 decades and particularly in the 2000s. Provided that smart economic/industrial policies implemented, Turkey can sustain her growth performance and become an industrialized and rich country by 2040 or 2050, as future projections indicate.

Surpassing all predictions of global rating agencies as well as internal hopes, the Turkish economy registered an 11.1 percent growth in the third quarter of 2017, around a 100 percent increase from the second quarter (5.1 percent) and first quarter (5 percent) growth rate. Its continuously growing economy places Turkey on the top of the list of the G20 countries.

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) which reported the growth rate statistics on Monday, Turkey is much ahead of G20 member China, which recorded its position at 6.8 percent, and the third ranking India which is at 6.3 percent.

Though analysts predicted a 9.2 percent of growth rate for the Turkish economy in 2017, this figure has been surpassed in the first three quarters. This is the first time that the country’s growth rate came close to the 2011 rate when the Turkish economy recorded an 11.4 percent growth in the first quarter. The fourth quarter is expected to see a higher rate due to the positive confidence generated by the economic performance of the past three quarters.

Even if the average remains stagnant at the present rate – 7.06 percent – in the fourth quarter of the year, it would still be much higher than the World Bank and the IMF outlook, which set the annual forecast at 5.1 percent in their latest review.

The average growth of the Turkish economy for the three quarters exceeds Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s own prediction of 7 percent. While speaking at an award ceremony at the Ankara Chamber of Commerce, he stated, “It won’t be a surprise if the Turkish economy grows by more than 6 percent. Probably around 7 percent in 2017.”

Turkish aggregate GDP rose to 827.2 billion Turkish liras ($216 billion). According to TurkStat, the high growth was recorded on account of the positive performance of sectors such as agriculture expanding by 2.8 percent, the manufacturing industry by 14.8 percent, the construction sector by 18.7 percent, and the services sector by 20.7.

As compared with the third quarter of 2016, exports in 2017 grew at 17.2 percent while imports of goods and services rose by 14.5 percent. Capital formation, including investments, came out strong for both consumption and machinery, up 12.4 percent and 15.3 percent, respectively.

Though Turkey is facing tough times amid the continued regional turbulence and multiple wars on its borders, which have caused an immense refugee influx into the country, the current economic growth rate of the country must be surprising for many of the analysts.

It is the first time since the Arab uprising began in early 2011, triggering proxy wars across Turkey’s southern border, that the Turkish government will have a reason to take a sigh of relief from an economic point of view.

*Written by Waseem Ahad