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n response to escalating tensions with the Maldives, India has announced plans for a new naval base named INS Jatayu, to be located on Minicoy, the southernmost island in the Lakshadweep archipelago. The move comes as relations between New Delhi and the Maldives have strained, with geopolitical considerations and recent diplomatic incidents contributing to the frictions.

The Indian Navy disclosed its intention to construct the naval base on Saturday, situated approximately 130 kilometers (80 miles) north of the Maldives. The Lakshadweep islands have assumed strategic significance for India, and the new base aims to enhance operational reach, focusing on anti-piracy and anti-narcotics operations in the Western Arabian Sea.

“The base will also augment Indian Navy’s capability as the first responder in the region and augment connectivity with the mainland,” stated the Indian Navy in its official statement. The move aligns with India’s policy to incrementally bolster security infrastructure in strategically vital locations.

Response to tensions

Tensions between India and the Maldives have intensified since President Mohamed Muizzu assumed power last year. His visit to China before India and statements emphasizing Maldives’ sovereignty drew attention, leading to increased scrutiny of the bilateral relationship.

In response to derogatory posts about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made by three Maldives deputy ministers, there were calls for a tourist boycott of the Maldives on Indian social media. The ministers were subsequently suspended.

The latest move follows Muizzu’s request to replace Indian military personnel in the Maldives with civilian technical staff. Approximately 75 Indian military personnel are stationed in the Maldives, operating humanitarian service planes that conduct medical evacuations and provide assistance to remote islands.

Incremental security measures

The announcement of INS Jatayu underscores India’s commitment to enhancing its military presence in the Indian Ocean region. The Lakshadweep islands have strategic importance due to their proximity to crucial sea routes, making them pivotal in the country’s maritime security strategy.

As India pursues the establishment of the new naval base, the geopolitical dynamics in the Indian Ocean region are likely to draw continued attention. The move reflects a proactive approach by India to safeguard its interests and respond to evolving regional challenges.

Source: The Associated Press

T

he diplomatic landscape in the Indian Ocean region witnessed a significant development as China and the Maldives solidified their relationship through a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership. President Mohamed Muizzu’s state visit to Beijing marked a turning point in the geopolitical dynamics of the region, with the two nations signaling a commitment to enhanced collaboration across various sectors. This report delves into the implications, motivations, and potential consequences of this evolving partnership.

President Muizzu’s election in November brought forth a unique campaign narrative, distinctly characterized by the slogan “India Out.” The President, in his electoral bid, portrayed India as a threat to the Maldives’ sovereignty, challenging the influence exerted by New Delhi. Since assuming office, Muizzu’s administration has taken bold steps, including the expulsion of Indian military personnel and the pursuit of Chinese investments despite the Maldives’ considerable debt to Beijing.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, during the talks at the Great Hall of the People, referred to President Muizzu as an “old friend,” emphasizing the historic opportunity for both nations to build on their past and forge ahead into the future. The elevation of bilateral ties to a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership” sets the stage for deeper collaboration, encompassing economic, political, and infrastructure domains.

Strategic implications

The upgrading of relations between China and the Maldives holds broader strategic implications for the Indian Ocean region. The move aligns with China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative, strengthening its influence in strategically vital maritime territories. As the Maldives pivots towards China, the regional balance of power undergoes a subtle shift, echoing similar dynamics observed in neighboring countries.

The Maldives, grappling with significant public debt, finds China as its most substantial bilateral creditor. The debt, amounting to $1.37 billion, represents around 20% of the Maldives’ total public debt. Despite concerns raised by international financial institutions, the Maldives has welcomed further Chinese investments, with Chinese firms injecting an additional $1.37 billion since the Maldives joined the Belt and Road Initiative in 2014.

The strategic partnership between China and the Maldives sends ripples across the geopolitical landscape, particularly impacting regional players. India, the Maldives’ historical ally, now faces a shifting dynamic in its immediate maritime neighborhood. The Maldives’ tilt towards China mirrors trends observed in Sri Lanka, indicating China’s expanding influence in the Indian Ocean.

World bank caution and domestic challenges

While Chinese investments contribute significantly to the Maldives’ economic success, concerns have been raised by the World Bank. A development report from October warned of a potential build-up of sovereign exposure during the pandemic, coupled with a lack of domestic investment opportunities. The Maldives, according to the report, should carefully navigate its economic policies to avoid over-reliance on external partners.

President Xi expressed support for increasing direct flights between China and the Maldives, a move that could significantly benefit the Maldives’ tourism sector. With tourism contributing 79% to economic growth in 2022, the country seeks to leverage Chinese connectivity to boost its travel industry. Additionally, China’s commitment to infrastructure development aligns with the Maldives’ aspirations for economic diversification.

The strategic partnership between China and the Maldives represents a geopolitical shift with far-reaching consequences. As the Maldives reorients its diplomatic and economic ties, the regional balance of power undergoes subtle transformations. The Maldives-China axis adds complexity to an already intricate geopolitical puzzle in the Indian Ocean, demanding close attention from international observers. The future trajectory of this partnership will likely shape the geopolitical dynamics of the region in the years to come.

Source: CNBC News and Reuters

Amid the Russia-Ukraine war in Europe, the United States has reaffirmed its commitment to counter China in the strategically vital Indo-Pacific region, by putting $2.2 billion on the table.

But in the end, what price are the regional and world powers willing to pay—not only in financial terms—to ensure a free and open South China Sea against the backdrop of China’s rising military maneuvering?

Bone of contention

The South China Sea, which encompasses 1.4 million square miles, is of tremendous economic and geostrategic importance. More than $3 trillion in trade is transported over it each year, and roughly one-third of the world’s maritime shipping moves through its waters. It also hosts a huge number of fisheries, indispensable for the food security of China, Southeast Asia, and beyond.

Yet, apart from the economic benefits, this large swath of war is on the top agenda of many countries due to its geopolitical significance. From a narrow perspective, only a few neighboring nations have domain over parts of the South China Sea due to their respective geographic position. This includes China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. Nevertheless, many other countries such as Indonesia, Singapore, Cambodia, and Japan play a vital role in this maritime region, extending the circle of the partners involved.

Stirring opposition, China has claimed not only most of the waters of South China Sea for itself, but also competes for two groups of islands of strategic importance: the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands are contested by China and other neighboring countries.

No one wants to abandon their claims, given the richness in deposits of natural resources, and the potential to strengthen a country’s security and to open trade routes. This creates a source for a conflict which some have attempted to resolve by negotiation and legal challenges. So far, this has been in vain.

Empires’ loud talk

In the whole saga of this maritime dispute, the United States’ role cannot be ignored. The country evokes legal treaties such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to affirm the claim that the South China Sea is international waters and accuses China of militarizing the area. In recent years, artificial islets have been built by China, and some of the reefs have been converted to military facilities, paving the way for the dominance of one power.

Frothy waters amid the controversies

Due to China’s economic prowess and consequently the dependency of its neighbors on bilateral trade, many regional countries have embraced appeasing politics. However, some cracks have started to appear very recently on the surface of these seemingly friendly relations.

Last year, China deployed three ships to the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), prompting a fast rebuke from Rodrigo Duterte, the country’s president. Also, Malaysia summoned China’s ambassador to protest against the activities of Chinese vessels in Kuala Lumpur’s EEZ.

Vietnam and Taiwan that have experienced more ups-and-downs in dealing with China than anyone else are already on a buying spree of military equipment, searching to pro-actively improve their defense capabilities (without searching for excuses for doing so).

In the eyes of many analysts, Russia’s war in Ukraine turned the rules-based order upside down. The Russian Federation resorted to a military solution to respond to the self-perceived feeling of endangerment, and in order to return its so-called ancestral lands back to the motherland after they were allegedly wrongly gifted to Ukraine.

But the erosion of the rule of law did not start in 2022.

Previously, in 1994, Ukraine was given security assurances for abandoning its nuclear weapons by the signatories of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. Yet, the United Kingdom and the United States, subsequently joined by France and China, allowed Russia to annex Crimea exactly twenty years after the agreement.

Therefore, many point to the perishability of certain norms of international law due to the lack of their enforcement. Washington’s selective application of rules does not help its argument when evoking the need to uphold the law. However, it is without dispute that apart from deploying its armed forces, the U.S. has supported Ukraine in countering the aggressor and it remains to be seen who will be called the winner.

With American ships frequently passing through the South China Sea, not far from the Chinese ones, it is rightly feared that one small clash could lead to a full-scale war anytime as neither China nor other parties to the dispute want to deescalate easily.

It is worthwhile to bear in mind that diplomatic solutions have not been completely exhausted despite the rounds of diplomatic salvos between China and the U.S.

On November 12, thousands of protesters took to the streets of the Maldivian capital Male, calling for and an end to the Indian military presence and interference in domestic affairs, while chanting, “Indian Military Out,” making it one of the largest ever political protests on the archipelagic country, and igniting similar protests elsewhere, including Fuvahmulah city, where thousands gathered on Sunday, November 14, 2021.

Despite the Maldivian government’s efforts to ignore and downplay the protester’s demands, the hashtags “IndiaOut,” “IndianMilitaryOut,” and “DefendMaldives” have since become the top trending topics on social media in the country.

While the Maldives and India have long enjoyed warm ties, with Indian nationals accounting for 90,000 of the roughly 1.5 million tourists who visit the Maldivian islands each year, there’s been a noticeable shift in attitudes among the general population in recent times, as resentment grows towards New Delhi’s ever-more aggressive policies and meddling in the country and region.

These anxieties were given a jolt in June, when a series of leaked documents, showing communication between the Maldives Foreign Ministry and the Indian High Commission, revealed the Indian government denied a request by the previous Maldivian administration, under President Abdulla Yameen, to withdraw its Indian Military helicopters from the country in the months leading up to the 2018 Presidential Election.

Mr. Yameen was ultimately defeated by his Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) rival and current President – Ibrahim Mohamed Solih – in the November 2018 polls, a victory secured among allegations New Delhi had tipped its finger on the scales by meddling in the election.

The Indian government denied a request to withdraw its Indian Military helicopters from the Maldives in the months leading up to the 2018 Presidential Election

These allegations were given undeniable credibility when former President and current Speaker of Parliament – Mohamed Nasheed – gave an interview to India Today in 2019, in which he praised Indian officials and diplomats for creating a “small window” to help MDP win the election.

Worryingly, for many Maldivians, President Solih has been acting as New Delhi’s “yes-man” since the election, prompting widespread concerns he has traded the country’s sovereignty and independence to enrich his political and personal fortunes, while also dressing up Indian military expansionism as “infrastructure projects.”

More troubling still is the way some of the agreements between the two countries have been signed in secrecy, and made available to the public only because of leaked documents obtained by The Maldives Journal earlier this year.

Worryingly, for many Maldivians, President Solih has been acting as New Delhi’s “yes-man” since the election.

At the core of the protesters grievances is revelation the current Maldivian government has signed a secretive deal with New Delhi, allowing for Indian military personnel to enjoy full diplomatic immunity and tax exemption status, thus constituting a violation of the Maldivian Constitution, which states foreign soldiers may not be stationed in the country without full approval from Parliament.

Hamdham Shakeel, co-founder and editor of the independently operated Maldives News Network, explained to Politics Today how Maldivians don’t wish to be caught in the middle of a potential future shooting war between India and China in the increasingly contested Indian Ocean, a concern he described as “one of the major driving forces behind anti-Indian military sentiments.”

“Stationing and operating military assets in the Maldives would mean that it has become a point of military operation. Maldivians would have to face collateral damages for stationing Indian military personnel and hardware in the Maldives,” therefore breaking from its long-held policy of remaining neutral in regional and great power rivalries, said Shakeel.

Of particular concern is an agreement signed between the current Maldivian government and India on 21 February to develop and maintain the country’s most strategic military naval bases – Uthuru ThilhaFalhu (UTF) – which is not only located within close proximity to the capital city, but also described as its “last line of defence.”

Details of the agreement became public only after it was leaked to local newspapers, revealing Indian military personnel will be allowed to carry arms and live ammunition and conduct their own surveillance and patrols in the country.

It’s for these reasons, the “Indian Military Out” protest movement continues to gather steam, becoming better organized, with the group “Defend Maldives,” consisting of the opposition coalition, a breakaway faction of the ruling party and many other smaller groups, lending its support and infrastructure.

Expectedly, the Maldivian government launched a counter campaign against the protest movement on 17 November, when it issued a statement condemning the protesters as only a “small group of individuals with the objective of tarnishing the country’s long-standing cordial ties with India,” while accusing them of “spreading false information.”

Conspicuously, however, the Maldivian government mischievously removed the word “military” in its statement, therefore mislabelling the protest movement as “India Out,” a naked effort to malign the “Indian Military Out” protest movement as anti-India.

Shakeel scoffed at the government’s characterization of the protesters, describing the Maldivian people as great friends of the Indian people and culture, and saying they specifically oppose India’s BJP government’s “aggressive foreign policy revolving around Indian imperialism in the Indian Ocean” and encroachment on the country’s sovereignty and independence.