The SPD’s party conference took place in Berlin where the delegates confirmed the new leadership of Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans, and five new vice chairpersons among other executive figures. The SPD also approved a draft of social reforms which may be used to negotiate with the CDU/CSU coalition partners in the upcoming weeks.

Among the new vice chairpersons was 30-year-old Kevin Kühnert, the leader of the Young Socialists (Jusos), the SPD’s youth organization. Some voices have argued that no other youth politician has been as powerful as Kühnert.

During the party conference, some significant decisions were also made. Namely, the SPD eventually, and surprisingly for some hasty commentators, decided to continue to support Merkel’s current grand coalition government with the majority of the SPD delegates voting against a motion to quit the party. Saskia Esken stressed that she was and still is “sceptical about the future of this grand coalition. But with this resolution, we give the coalition a realistic chance of continuing – no more, no less.”

However, it is likely that the new leaders will be inclined to renegotiate the terms under which they will continue to lend their support to Merkel’s government. The SPD’s new co-leaders are in favour of tougher climate protection measures, much more investment in Germany’s infrastructure and a rise in the so-called minimum wage. But these issues will not be raised as an ultimatum, since the party seeks to remain in the coalition.

Following the party conference, however, some polls stated that the votes of the SPD are still decreasing, while others stressed a limited increase. For instance, according to the Emnid surveys, the SPD increased 1 point and achieved 16 percent while the Greens, stood at 20 percent (CDU: 28, AfD: 13, FDP: 9, Left Party: 8). According to another polling institution (Forsa), the SPD decreased its votes to 11 percent subsequent to the election of the new co-leaders, and therefore further deteriorated its popularity among already averse voters.

In addition to the obvious lack of a hopeful mood among German voters regarding the new SPD leadership, it is likely that the party will try to insist on a more left-leaning tax and fiscal approach in the coalition government. Though, it is striking that leading CDU and CSU figures have also started to urge the Social Democrats not to blackmail the coalition partner, as the CDU’s chairperson and defence minister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer recently stated. According to Kramp-Karrenbauer, it is not acceptable to make preconditions such as “if these requirements are not met, then we go.”

Moreover, a leading CDU politician, Armin Laschet, criticized the SPD decisions to invest an additional 450 billion Euros in the upcoming years, stating that it had nothing to do with Germany’s current problems. Laschet also explained that there was already a huge budget, but the problems in Germany were not due to a lacking budget but obstacles in the fields of planning and approval procedures. According to Laschet, what was needed was the acceleration of these processes in order to develop required infrastructure.

Given the current conditions, it seems that in the upcoming weeks, particularly after the Christmas break, a tense talk on the continuation of the coalition might be very likely, despite current pro-coalition positions by the SPD leadership. The main problem though is the centre-left’s general lack of future perspectives. Even though the party was recently able to cement its ambitions to return to actual social-democratic policies it is unlikely that these policies can be implemented by the new co-leaders, who do not cause any kind of euphoria among the masses.

The rising popularity of the far-right in general, and, more importantly from the SPD’s perspective, the increasing support of the ecological Greens Party among centre-left circles, is increasingly threatening the 150 years old SPD. Thus, their goal of extending the party’s current votes  up to 30 percent of the electorate during the next federal elections is unconvincing given the new party program. Whether the new party program will be the only component to remerge as a successful centrist party, or whether other important factors need to be considered will be the most pressing task facing the SPD, the answers to which the SPD would need to soon find and immediately implement.

This past Saturday, the junior partner of the coalition government, the Social Democrats (SPD) announced the party’s election of its new co-leaders Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken. It was a surprise that these two won, as the current Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz and his partner, Klara Geywitz, were expected to be elected by the party’s members. Nevertheless, the SPD base decided that Walter-Borjans and Esken will lead the party. The pair previously pushed for renegotiation of the coalition between the SPD and Chancellor Merkel’s CDU. It must kept in mind that over the past 10 years, there has been a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government, which according to some circles is harming the country’s traditional political balance.

The results have been evaluated partly as a shock for the Berlin political establishment and elites while some media outlets used a more negative tone. Media representatives commented on the results with headlines like: “the SPD is abolishing itself”, “adieu, social democrats”, “the end of the grand coalition” and other similar negative statements and predictions. This is actually based on the fact that the new leaders previously stated that they will insist on renegotiating the current coalition agreement at the SPD party convention this upcoming Friday. Delegates will have to decide on the future of the remaining two years of the coalition.

How can the current conditions and the general perspective within the framework of German politics be assessed and evaluated?

First of all, the results should be taken cautiously into consideration without positive or negative exaggerations. Even though some supportive voices of the grand coalition describe the SPD’s vote as a negative outcome, it is no doubt a fact that this represents the SPD’s legitimate will – and is not limited to the votes of certain delegates. Some criticize the fact that a small number of SPD members, who took part in the elections (217,000), will determine the future of the country’s federal government. However, this kind of comparison is not fair or even acceptable because every party has its own legitimate means to determine who will lead and make decisions.

As a comparison, it shouldn’t be forgotten that in the past year, the Liberals (FDP), which on several occasions acted as the junior partner of the CDU-led coalition government, were the key actors in deciding the country’s future government for four years – despite having a low number of votes in comparison to other rival parties. Thus, in such situations, which are actually influenced by the country’s parliamentary tradition, the question arises, who decides where the line of legitimacy is to be drawn, and which point of view is the most legitimate one?

The second point regarding the new SPD duo and the future of the coalition government has to be addressed from the point of view of the party’s legitimate self-evaluation. It is no secret that the SPD’s popularity among voters has decreased more and more while it has participated in grand coalition governments. The building of coalition governments has not contributed to the SPD’s popularity but has had the opposite effect. Therefore, some voices in the party have called for a return to fundamental social-democrat positions and to reject positions that continuously resemble those of the CDU/CSU. Whether it is true that the SPD is increasingly resembling the CDU or vice versa is another interesting issue, which, however, goes beyond the limits of this piece. Nevertheless, the image of two main German centrist parties permanently echoing the same policy lines has disturbed both voters on the centre-left and centre-right.

If delegates ultimately come to a decision that ends the grand coalition government at Friday’s SPD convention, then Merkel will search for a new but unlikely coalition (with the Greens or/and FDP), or she will make efforts to govern the country under a minority government – an unprecedented situation in post-1945 Germany, and a situation which Chancellor Merkel does not favour and has ruled out several times. If both potential options also fail, new elections will be held subsequent to a pseudo-confidence vote which will intentionally trigger an early election. However, it is a risky move due to the obvious threat by the far-right AfD which may have the potential to increase even more of its votes and thus unfortunately become the country’s second largest party.

For this reason, the Social Democrats have to think carefully about where they currently stand and what kind of effect their upcoming decisions may have on the entire country’s future. In contrast to the other duo (Scholz and Geywitz), the new co-leaders Walter-Borjans and Esken seem very unpredictable, which, most likely will change once they are confronted with the reality federal politics. As one has witnessed recently, both politicians are currently in favour of not immediately ending the coalition at the party convention, despite heavy pressure from left-wing members of the party to conduct an election on the future of the coalition.

Over the past years the reputation and popularity of the SPD has gradually decreased, but whether this will fundamentally change by switching to the opposition is ultimately a risky gamble. As one of the previous SPD chairpersons and one of Germany’s most famous politicians, Franz Müntefering, recently stated, at the end of the day the voters will show whether they accept the decision to switch to the opposition, a decision Müntefering believes the people will not welcome.

As a final word, it is a very situation case that a high-profile political figure such as Olaf Scholz, who was once the Vice Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, was not able to be elected as a co-leader by his own party. This is an issue or problem that parliamentary systems appear to be occasionally facing. The same uncertainty also applies to prime ministers/chancellors and various types of coalition combinations which may occur subsequent to elections if the people’s will is not represented in the subsequently established coalitions.

The Social Democrats of Germany are still searching for dual-leadership from which they hope to escape from the party’s current lack of perspective and prospects. Given the results of the Thuringia state elections, the once strong centrist party of Germany is increasingly heading towards becoming a marginal one, which will most likely have serious difficulties in achieving the five percent voter threshold at the state level, and perhaps also at the federal level. As I previously addressed, Germany’s Social Democrat Party (SPD) has had a fundamental problem of maintaining its chairpersons. The party witnessed several chairpersons who were not able to receive the necessary support both from the party’s base and leading figures in the party’s senior circles. Even despite this, since 2013 the SPD has interestingly insisted on continuing to be the junior partner of Chancellor Merkel’s grand coalition governments.

In the last 24 months, the party had an overrated chairperson, Martin Schulz, who became SPD chairperson with 100 percent of the party’s votes, but resigned subsequent to the party’s federal election losses in September 2017. Then, Schulz’ successor Andrea Nahles, became the first female chairperson of the party in its more than 150 year history. However, due to several failures and miscalculations regarding the state elections, during which the SPD faced and still faces a decreasing and catastrophic voting trend, Nahles also resigned as chairperson.

The party then decided to elect its chairperson through a vote of all of its 420 thousand members. Currently, the party is being led by an interim leadership-trio. For the first time, several co-candidates declared their candidacy. Approximately 53.3 percent of the SPD members voted in the election, in which twelve co-candidates ran. However, no candidate was able to achieve an absolute majority in the first round. Consequently, a second round of voting will be scheduled between 19 and 29 November. Following this date, the results of the winning duo will be declared at the SPD party convention in early December. The interesting point is that on this convention day the SPD will also decide their future as part of the grand coalition as well.

The current Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his running mate, Klara Geywitz, received most of the votes (22.68%) in the first round, followed by Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken (21.04%). Resulting in both of these duos achieving the right to run for the party’s new co-leadership in the second round.

Polls indicate that 37 percent of members want to see Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken as the party’s new co-leaders, while only 25 percent support Scholz and Geywitz. However, 38 percent of those polled do not support any of the co-candidates. On the other hand, leading political figures such as the SPD’s current foreign minister Heiko Maas, or the former chairperson Martin Schulz, have recently declared their support for the Scholz-Geywitz duo. Similarly, media outlets also suggest that Germany’s current Finance Minister Scholz is the favorite to lead the SPD together with Geywitz.

In the next weeks, SPD members will ultimately have a new chairperson on whom party members will set their hopes. However, in reality choosing new leadership will not guarantee that the existing obstacles within the party, and dismal predictions at the ballot will find any resolutions. But the fact that Maas and Schulz, prominent figures of the SPD, have shown support for Scholz and Geywitz, indicates the possibility of a continuation of a political line which may not be not so attractive from the point of view of voters seeking more promising change.

It is also very debatable whether the current method of electing a new chairperson of the SPD is the best one. It does not seem very convincing that a new top-leader and a potential candidate for chancellor will emerge with this kind of extended and unexciting election process.

Finally, it is a fact that the German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz only narrowly received most of the votes during the first round, which then triggered the second round. This indicates that all of the SPD’s candidates have a similar support rate, and further suggests the lack of a new and exciting mood within the party. In reality, any potential successful chairperson of a major centrist party will have to deliver much more than what Social Democrat circles are currently offering. It is clear that the current mood and choice of candidates signal that there will not be any extraordinary changes for the SPD in general, which hardly seems an appropriate development to stem the tide of voter dissatisfaction and a growing right-wing populist trend.

Between 22 April 2018 and June 2019, one of Germany’s most central political parties, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), was led by Andrea Nahles, who was the first female leader in the party’s history. However, in June of this year, she announced her resignation as chairperson. Following this decision, the party now faces, once again, a leadership problem and an election to fill the role of chairperson will be held this October. Until that date, the party is being led by an interim leadership-trio. SPD members can declare their candidacy until September 1st. Candidates have the right to run alone or alongside a co-candidate. Without going into detail of the election process, it is worth mentioning that if the candidate(s) are not able to achieve an absolute majority in the first round, the election can go on to a second round of voting. Ultimately, the final results will be declared during the SPD party convention in early December.

It can be said that until now the SPD is going through an interesting but desperate path. Unfortunately, until last week, there have been no exciting candidates who have declared their interest in being the next chairperson. This is despite party members being able to declare their candidacy since 1 July. The only striking candidate until now has been Olaf Scholz, the incumbent federal minister of finance and vice chancellor of Germany. Scholz stated that he is willing to be a candidate due to the lack of interest by other prominent SPD figures. He previously ruled out being a candidate by pointing to his time constraints as a current federal minister. As expected, Scholz finally declared a female running mate to co-head the SPD, namely, a rather unknown SPD-politician and MP in Brandenburg’s state parliament, Klara Geywitz.

Scholz is considered to be a person who would bring more stability to Merkel’s shaky grand coalition, and is seen as a rather persuasive figure from an economic perspective. The chances of other candidates as the new chairperson are unlikely. But these speculations and discussions before and after the election of the SPD chairperson may be misleading. One of the SPD’s former leaders, Martin Schulz, received 100 percent of the votes when he was elected as the party’s new chairman in early 2017. Despite this overwhelming initial success, he ended his career as one of the most unsuccessful SPD leaders in its history.

If the SPD votes continue to decrease in Germany, the Greens may replace the SPD in the near future.

The SPD is currently a junior member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s federal government coalition. In the last years, the SPD has suffered several disappointing election results. In upcoming elections in three federal states in the east of Germany, similar disastrous election results are expected. Under such deteriorating conditions, some SPD members have increasingly called for quitting their party membership unless the current coalition with Merkel’s conservative CDU/CSU continues. Current polls show that SPD’s votes range between 12 and 14 percent at the federal level while in some states the percentage is even less. It is argued that the desperate search for a new party leader has also decreased the number of potential votes. Besides that, since 2018, the SPD lost 37,000 members of its party members, from 463,723 to 426,352 members.

The current process in the SPD does not promise a successful post-election projection. It is not a secret that the SPD cannot properly articulate their differences from other leading parties such as the center-right CDU, and the Greens. If the SPD votes continue to decrease, the Greens may replace the SPD in the near future. Furthermore, the fact that Germany does not have a political tradition where political figures are in the foreground brings some difficulties when finding a new leader for a party. Political parties are the main focus in German politics while individual political personalities are less decisive in the overall party structure. This is in contrast to neighboring France, where a party leader is the most prominent figure in politics. In Germany, this creates conditions in which charismatic leaders do not easily emerge from the party’s own ranks. Not only for the SPD but for Germany’s conservatives who also face problems determining and electing new leaders able to trigger excitement and hope among the citizens. All in all, while the election of a new leader or co-leaders in the SPD is significant it will not solely determine the party’s future course.

Germany is accepted as a successful case of a functioning parliamentary system of government. According to this, the main executive organ of the country’s system of government is dominated by a chancellor and his/her government, which is responsible to the parliamentary majority (Bundestag).

Germany is also a country that has lived through many years of coalition, with either conservative-led or social-democratic-led governments with an additional junior coalition partner. “Grand coalitions” have also been established in the past, in 2005, and this year in March 2018, when Germany’s two largest parties, the CDU/CSU and the SPD came together.

My main emphasis in this piece is that Chancellor Merkel’s recent decision to leave her party’s leadership will affect the country’s ever more complicating parliamentary structure in the long run.

Merkel became her party’s chairperson in 2000 right after her era as the party’s secretary general, during which she challenged the former German Chancellor and her mentor, Helmut Kohl (CDU). In 2005, Merkel defeated the social-democratic Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder while Schröder himself underestimated Merkel during that federal election – consequently it was the end of Schröder’s active political career.

Since then, Merkel has been ruling the country as Chancellor and has simultaneously transformed the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) into a more centrist, European-oriented, and a modern one. In the last 18 years as chair and 13 years as Chancellor, there have been many changes that may be addressed in the upcoming months, and years, following Merkel’s depart from the CDU in early December.

Even though Merkel always stressed the importance of combining the office of the Chancellor with the party’s leadership as a necessary act, she announced her decision to step down from being chair of the CDU. In addition, she added that she will not be a candidate (for the fifth time) during the federal elections in 2021.

I do not want to address in depth the apparent reasons as to why Merkel made such a decision to leave  the party leadership. As is addressed by several authors (I>;II), the decision is mostly based on the party cadres’ continuing pressure against Merkel and her both refugee-friendly policies and the high losses during the recent elections in Bavaria and Hesse. Furthermore, the disappearance of actual conservative politics in Germany and the CDU’s increasing resemblance with left-liberal parties caused an increase of far-right parties, which are ultimately seen as an “alternative” to the conservative and center-right parties such as the CDU/CSU.

However, in my opinion, the main interesting point in the recent developments is the party’s instruments that put pressure on the party leader and Chancellor Merkel. This mechanism is quite normal for a parliamentary system, which is the case in Germany. However, there has not been a broad discussion with regard to Germany’s system of government and the question regarding the election of the executive, there are some contemporary key points that need to be addressed.

Above all, during a time where presidents and certain prime ministers (or Chancellors as in Germany or Austria) are becoming more popular and becoming the main focus of the electorate, the question arises as to whether a German executive might be elected by popular vote as well. For instance, one might ask what would be the outcome if the executive organ would be directly elected by a popular vote, as in the United States, or a closer example, like in the case of France?

While Macron as the head of the executive has a direct connection to French citizens, Merkel has to struggle within her party and make several concessions to achieve a limited goal.

Similarly, Bünyamin Bezci rightly stressed that President Emmanuel Macron, who is also the key actor in France’s pro-European political perspective, has a broader field of executive action in contrast to Chancellor Merkel. While Macron as the head of the executive has a direct connection to French citizens through his popular election legitimacy, Merkel has to struggle within her party and try to make several and sometimes contradictory concessions in order to achieve a certain limited goal.

Furthermore, while according to polls most of Germany’s citizens still support Merkel as the country’s most popular political leader, the party structures are the main decision bodies. One of the striking points here is the fact that Merkel is elected by the German parliament while the French executive has a direct legitimacy based on the decision of its electorate. Thus, the image of a constitutionally strong and powerful Chancellor occurs, who is actually able to quasi-dominate the entire EU in general while she is, though, not able to stand against the own party’s complicated structures.

What would be the result in German politics if the head of the executive would be elected with a popular vote?

What would be the result in German politics if the head of the executive would be elected with a popular vote? Perhaps this question might be on Germany’s future political agenda. There are currently too many parties in the German party system, which might hinder the establishment of well-functioning coalition governments. Thus, alternative possibilities will be most likely considered.

It is time for change in German political system in an era in which “presidentialization and personalization of politics” is taking place globally.

In this sense, it might be interesting to mention that in the near past there have been some discussions in the context of the election of the federal president of Germany. While some voices and nearly 70 percent of the population supported political reform for popularly electing the president, some have opposed this idea due to difficulties and bad experiences in reference to Germany’s political history. But time is changing and Germany might need optimizing its own political system during an era when “presidentialization and personalization of politics” are globally and increasingly becoming obvious and common. We will try to continue and address similar questions and discussions in the upcoming weeks in a more theoretical point of view.

On 14 October, parliamentary elections in the German state of Bavaria will be held. Bavaria is one of Germany’s most important political and economic federal states. The south-eastern German state is a fundamental part of Germany’s strong economy and is an attractive destination for many people due to the quality of education that it provides. Between 1966 and 2008, Bavaria has been ruled by a single party – the Christian Social Union (CSU).

As one may guess, the citizens of the federal state are more conservative in contrast to other parts of Germany. Following a coalition government with the Bavarian FDP (liberals) between 2008 and 2013, the CSU once again gained a majority enough to form a government on its own. Since 2013 the CSU has been ruling Bavaria alone. However, this will most probably change with the elections on Sunday.

The point with the so-called Bavarian conservatives is that on the federal level, the CSU is the sister party of the Christian Democrats (CDU). Accordingly, the CDU is represented in all other 15 federal German states, except in Bavaria, where the conservatives are quasi represented only by the CSU. On the other hand, the CSU is the usual ally of the CDU on the federal level. For example, one of the most important offices of the current federal government is in the hands of CSU Chairman Horst Seehofer. Seehofer was the previous state prime of Bavaria until he was challenged by Markus Söder, particularly during 2017.

Following, Seehofer decided to change to the federal level, and thus became his party’s main candidate in the 2017 federal elections. Subsequently, he was appointed as the country’s Federal Minister of the Interior by the CDU leader and Chancellor Angela Merkel. In this context, Markus Söder became Bavaria’s new state prime, while Seehofer is still continuing his efforts to become chair of the CSU.

Even though the CDU and CSU have many similarities, there are a lot of disputes between the leading figures and bases of both parties. Without getting into too much detail, it ought to be underlined that a serious disagreement, what one can actually call a dispute, arose between the former Bavarian state premier Horst Seehofer and Chancellor Merkel.

It’s no secret that Markus Söder, Seehofer, and the CSU in general, are at odds with Merkel due to a decision she made in 2015 to open Germany’s borders to over one million Syrian refugees and migrants. Since then, Seehofer and the CSU insisted that no other country is able to take in unlimited numbers of migrants and refugees. Thus, the federal decision-makers had to do something against this policy of Merkel, which ultimately happened.

Besides, several other disputes occurred within the cabinet, especially in the last 6 months, after the new fragile government consisting of the CDU/CSU and SPD had been formed as a final option. These include disagreements with regards to issues such as refugees in Germany, Islam as a part of Germany and recently the case of Hans-Georg Maaßen, the former chief of Germany’s federal intelligence.

The CSU is currently struggling to win the elections in Bavaria on Sunday. The party is increasingly shifting to the right due to the rise of the far right and populist AfD, which will most likely enter the Bavarian parliament, as it has not already entered the federal parliaments of various states but has also entered the federal parliament of Germany, the Bundestag.

By aiming to limit the loss of votes to the far-right AfD, the CSU on the one hand prefers more populist discourses and quasi nationalistic reflexes. However, on the other hand, the party tries to stress its differences with the AfD by addressing that the CSU stands for liberal values and does not tolerate anti-Semitism, xenophobia, or right-wing extremism.

However, despite all maneuvers resembling far-right populists, according to recent polls, the CSU has achieved a historic low. Under these current conditions, it does not seem possible for the CSU to form a single-party government in Bavaria. Theoretically, it is even possible for a potential coalition government of 4 parties in Bavaria – except the AfD – to come together to form a new coalition government. Of course, on Sunday evening we will see whether the polls rightly prophesied the historical defeat of the CSU. Currently, the CSU still rejects to build a potential coalition government with the AfD.

Thus, it does not, and should not, surprise anyone that the party’s leader Seehofer and the state prime Söder are currently looking for a scapegoat. While Seehofer has been trying to highlight that he does not make any campaigns for the Bavarian elections, Söder has been claiming that tensions on the federal level have contributed in a negative way for the CSU’s image in Bavaria. It’s quite obvious that both politicians do not want to take any future responsibility.

The main problem is that the AfD is increasing the number of its voters on both the federal and state levels. The Bavarian elections will thus have a crucial role in the long-term future of German politics and whether the pressure to build a potential government, in which the AfD might also exist, will become true.

There is some hope in the German public and media that the AfD will neither become the second strongest party nor the main opposition party. However, the more the CSU or other parties in Germany resemble AfD discourses, and even imitate similar stances, the more likely it is for people to vote for the original base of these ideas – the AfD.

The elections to be held on Sunday will show how the future of conservatives in Germany will be shaped, how the fragile federal government led by Merkel will react to a major success of the AfD, and how the people will elaborate a likely shift to a more far-rightist and populist type of politics in general.