On March 28-30, Turkey provided good offices to Russian and Ukrainian delegates in Istanbul. No doubt, one meeting is not enough to yield any tangible results such as a long-term ceasefire or a permanent peace agreement. Such developments in negotiations require more than a series of meetings between the parties of the conflict.

However, it is important for the two sides to talk while the war is ongoing, also given the fact that there is no other hope to end the war. Another factor is the existence of a third party to bring Russia and Ukraine together, and Ankara has earned this role.

It comes as no surprise that Turkey can mediate, facilitate, and provide good venues between Russia and Ukraine given its mutual trust-based relationship with both countries. While Turkey enjoys a long-term, high-level defense cooperation in engine and drone technology with Ukraine, it also enjoys long-term strategic energy cooperation with Russia in the oil, gas, and nuclear sectors. Turkey’s relations with Russia and Ukraine also cover the areas of trade, tourism, and other investments.

However, strong bilateral relations with Russia and Ukraine are not the only factor that have helped Turkey earn this position. There are other countries in the world enjoying similar bilateral relations with both Russia and Ukraine, but Turkey differentiates itself by its capacity to play a diplomatic role.

A unique neutrality

Turkey has carefully crafted a unique neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war, and gained the confidence of both countries. While President Erdoğan called on NATO to take concrete action instead of merely uttering words to deter the Russian aggression, he also criticized practices such as firing a Russian conductor in Germany and banning Russian literary works in Italy in the name of sanctions against Russia.

Likewise, despite condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine in strong terms, which was perfectly in line with Turkey’s long-held position on the annexation of Crimea, Ankara did not join in the chorus of imposing sanctions against Russia as a matter of principle. When the war started, instead of jumping on the bandwagon of the U.S.-led Western campaign to hurt Russia, and despite being a NATO member and under pressure from its allies, Turkey made its own way.

Even at the expense of paying a price, Turkey strives to adhere to its principle-based position for the sake of preserving its consistency in foreign policy and the trust it enjoys with its partners. Over the years, Turkey’s approach to sanctions against Russia has been a case in point. Furthermore, one of the central issues surrounding the Black Sea security and the war in Ukraine is the role of the Turkish Straits. As expected, Turkey remained committed to the Montreux Convention by blocking the passage of four Russian warships.

Turkish economic calculations

In fact, even a rumor in Turkey about a shortage of sunflower oil caused temporary panic buying. Since Turkey is struggling with high-level of inflation, the issue became sensitive enough that it had to negotiate the release of Turkish commercial ships carrying sunflower oil that had been stuck in the Sea of Azov.

The Russia-Ukraine war is hitting Turkey where it hurts most: the economy. The war has already driven up energy prices and this means a greater current deficit for Turkey as an energy-dependent country, as well as across the board price increases. For the fiscal year 2022, both lower energy prices and a huge tourism turnout are vital for the Turkish economy, which is in need of a vast amount of foreign currency.

Tourism is one of the leading sources of foreign currency for Turkey, and both Russian and Ukrainian tourists contribute immensely to the Turkish tourism sector. It is obvious that it would be a luxury for people whose countries are at war to travel for leisure. Thus, Turkey badly needs the war to end.

Because of its neutrality, credibility, and its extremely high stakes in the war, Turkey is well-positioned to pave the way for peace in Ukraine. That’s why relatively considerable advancements have occurred in Turkey such as the first direct meeting between Lavrov and Kuleba in Antalya, and the Russian decision to scale back military engagement in Kyiv and Chernihiv as a result of the talks in Istanbul.

It is certain that the Russian move to downscale its military engagement in Ukraine is nothing more than a tactical step; however, even the declaration of such a gesture is a success for Turkey, given the level of humility it takes from an extremely proud man like Putin.

Whether he is aware of it or not, what Putin urgently needs is an “honourable exit” as offered by Erdoğan—and Putin knows no one who is more reliable and trustworthy than Erdoğan. If one day, the Russia-Ukraine war ends with a declaration made in Turkey, it shouldn’t be surprising.

The seas, and especially narrow sea passages, are critical to ensuring maritime transport and preventing possible threats. One such significant maritime passages is the Turkish Straits, formed by the Çanakkale Strait, the Sea of Marmara, and Istanbul Strait. The Turkish Straits constitute the sole connection of the Black Sea to the rest of the world.

The existing convention on the Turkish Straits, known as the “Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits” or simply the “Montreux Convention,” was signed on July 20, 1936, between nine states including Turkey, at the meeting held at Montreux, Switzerland under the pre-World War II conditions.

The convention does not only relate to the “passage” of ships, but also to the “security” of Turkey and the Black Sea countries. The regime it established is once again on the agenda following the military attack launched by Russia on Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

The initial discussion relates to whether warships of Russia and Ukraine will be allowed to pass through the Turkish Straits. A second important question is whether the passage of future warships will be allowed in the event of possible international military measures against Russia.

General outlines of the regime introduced by the Montreux Convention

The Montreux Convention brings some assurances that reduce the security concerns of both Turkey and other Black Sea littoral countries arising from foreign warships; the convention uses the concept of warship instead of “military ship.”

The first group of measures is to ensure Turkey’s security in the straits’ region during peace time in which, civilian ships can pass freely, depending on the convention’s basic principle of the freedom of passage of ships of all states – whether they have a coast on the Black Sea or not.

Therefore, military ships have the same right to free passage. However, they are subjected to some significant limitations. Warships of all countries are under the obligation to notify Turkey prior to their passage, except for auxiliary ships specially built for the transport of fuel (Article 9).

Moreover, the highest (ceiling) total tonnage of all foreign naval forces that can transit through the straits, whether they have a coast to the Black Sea or not, will not exceed 15,000 tons. Apart from this tonnage limitation, the total number of ships passing through the straits at once cannot be more than nine (Article 14).

Some relative advantages are provided to the Black Sea countries, whose warships can pass with a tonnage not greater than 15,000 tons through the straits alone. They can be accompanied by at most two torpedoes (Article 11).

There are a couple of exceptions to this ban. The first exception states that warships can pass in the case of the rights and obligations of Turkey, or of any of the other High Contracting Parties members of the League of Nations (now the UN), arising from the “Covenant of the League of Nations” (now the Charter of the United Nations).

The second exception states that warships can pass in the case of assistance rendered to a state that is the victim of aggression by virtue of a treaty of mutual assistance binding Turkey, concluded within the framework of the “Covenant of the League of Nations” (Charter of the United Nations).

Although the convention stipulates that the Turkish government will designate airlines, except for the prohibited areas of the straits, in order to ensure the passage of civilian aircraft between the Mediterranean (Aegean) and the Black Sea (Article 23), there is no such freedom for military aircraft.

Russia’s military attack on Ukraine and the Montreux Convention

In order for the provisions of the Montreux Convention to go into effect, especially for Turkey to start using its powers and responsibilities, a “war” situation must exist.

According to international law, a formal declaration of war is not required for the definitive determination of a state of war. Even if there is no official declaration of war by the state using armed force, the laws of war should begin to apply when there is a “substantial” use of armed force.

In the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, Russia officially declared that it launched a “special military operation” against Ukraine on the morning of February 24, 2022, referring to some “justifications.” Whatever its name, this declaration is the official declaration of the start of a comprehensive military operation against another state.

Russia’s military attacks, in particular, involve the extensive use of land, sea, and air forces. Moreover, Ukraine has declared that Russia has launched a comprehensive military attack against it and that they are also defending their country, that is, carrying out military operations.

Turkey Applies the Montreux Convention

Recently, Turkey officially stated that there is a state of war at present, triggering the application of the relevant articles of the Montreux Convention. The statements of many other states and officials of numerous international organizations, including the Secretary General of the UN, confirm that Russia has launched a comprehensive military attack perhaps even with the intention of a full-scale occupation of Ukraine. This concrete evidence shows that there is a state of war between the two countries.

Article 19 of the Montreux Convention provides that if Turkey is not at war in a time of a war situation, warships of any warring state will be prohibited from passing through the straits

The second significant point now is whether these two warring countries are able to access the Turkish Straits with their warships during this war. Is Turkey legally obliged to allow them passage?

Article 19 of the Montreux Convention provides that if Turkey is not at war in a time of a war situation, warships of any warring state will be prohibited from passing through the straits. Turkey is, therefore, under the obligation not to allow the warships of both Ukraine and Russia to pass through the straits. Turkey has officially confirmed that the warships of both countries would not be allowed to pass through the Turkish Straits. The warships of other countries that are sent to support Ukraine or Russia will similarly be banned as these countries are regarded as warring countries.