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urkey is awaiting a response from the U.S. regarding the proposed sale of 40 F-16 Block 70 fighter jets and 79 modernization kits for its older F-16 fleet.

While the Biden administration is keen on greenlighting the defense sale, some congress members oppose it, primarily because they have close ties with anti-Turkey lobby groups, mainly Greek and Armenian.

On the other hand, the very same congressmen applaud the U.S. government’s decision to sell F-35A jets to Greece. Actually, Turkey was a participant in the F-35 development program, but that relationship was broken when Ankara decided to purchase the Russia-made S-400 air defense missile system.

Many in Turkey hold the view that the Turkish air force would not have got the F-35s even if Ankara had not bought the Russian missile system. Because the sale of cutting-edge weapons to Turkey is doubtful due to the Turkish government’s independent foreign policy from the U.S. and its competing interests with Washington.

Different options

Turkish officials are occupied with developing alternate short-, middle-, and long-term options for their air defense needs since they are aware of the anti-Turkish sentiment in Washington.

When British defense minister Ben Wallace met his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar in London in mid-January, one potential solution had already been put forth.

There were reports that Akar negotiated to buy Eurofighter Typhoons, C-130J Super Hercules military transport aircraft, and Type 23 frigates with an estimated value of $10 billion.

Some sources disclosed that Turkey might purchase two squadrons of Eurofighters, estimated between 24 to 48 units. The Turkish defense ministry did not refute the claims but said they are not in the final stages of negotiations.

The Eurofighter Typhoon fighters are the most important of the aforementioned weapons for the Turkish army to preserve its air attack/defense capacity. Several European nations, including the UK, Germany, Italy and Spain, jointly produce Typhoons.

It is a twin-engine, multi-role fighter with a canard delta wing that can cruise at a top speed of 2.125 km/hour and carry a payload of 7.5 tons. The jet is capable of supercruizing without using an afterburner.

Typhoon

Typhoons are mostly compared with the F-22 Raptors, known as the best-ever built fighter. Perhaps, F-22 is one step ahead of Typhoon but the latter is regarded as better than all other fighter brands.

Whether Turkey will buy Typhoons, whose acquisition will be a force multiplier for Turkish air forces, from the UK for its short/mid-term needs is yet to be known. Because there might be impediments to the procurement of Eurofighter Typhoons.

For instance, Typhoon’s project partner Germany might set up barriers, or Washington might put pressure on the UK to stop selling them to Turkey.

The U.S. congress will probably not allow the sale of F-16s to Turkey or will put forward some conditions, such as not using the jets against Greece or unconditional ratification of Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership.

For sure, Turkey will not come to terms with Capitol Hill. Moreover, even if the U.S. congress approves the sale, the F-16 Block 70 backlog is so large that Turkey may not be able to receive the first jet before 2028 or even later.

Still very strong 

However, this does not mean that the Turkish air defense will be vulnerable. The long-term solution is the production of the indigenous TF-X jet. The project is not an easy task to achieve in the short term, but it is not impossible, either.

The biggest problem the producer, TUSAŞ, might face is the engine. However, while TUSAŞ’s subsidiary TEI could produce a 6000 lb. thrust (10.000 lb. with afterburner), it has started to work on the engine of TF-X, too.

In normal conditions, it is not likely that the engine will be ready earlier than 2030. However, engine production will undoubtedly advance more quickly if Turkish authorities realize they cannot purchase parts from their western allies, such as engines.

We must also highlight that the Turkish army is not in a desperate position for its fighter fleet. It already has 243 F-16C/D and 48 F-4E in its inventory. While the fleet is aging, there is no apparent security threat.

In case of a likely war, the current number is enough for Turkey to defend itself. It is correct that Greece has bought Rafales from France and will receive both F-16 Block 70 and F-35 jets from the U.S., which might give it air superiority. But Athens will enjoy it for the short term as TF-X will be flying right after they receive the mentioned jets.

Besides, UCAVs accompanying Turkish jets will most probably fill the gap. Imagine how a swarm of 300 armed drones could mess with the enemy’s fighters, enabling Turkish fighters to bombard the enemy without interruption. This is what might happen within just two years.

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arch 11, 2023 was the 35th anniversary of a significant event in the history of Turkish defense and aerospace industry: on that day, the first Turkey-assembled F-16C Fighting Falcon combat aircraft was delivered to the Turkish Air Force (TurAF) by TUSAŞ Aerospace Industries (TAI).

TAI was established in 1984 as a joint venture between General Dynamics (later to become Lockheed Martin) and Türkiye Uçak Sanayii A.Ş. (TUSAŞ), for the manufacture of the F-16 aircraft. To produce the engines, another joint venture between General Electric and TUSAŞ was formed under the name of “TUSAŞ Engine Industries” (TEI). The first eight American-built F-16s were delivered in 1987.

Over the course of 35 years, TAI became a national company, with the acquisition of Lockheed Martin’s shares and the consolidation of the two companies, TAI and TUSAŞ under Turkish Aerospace Industries (Türk Havacılık ve Uzay Sanayii AŞ, TUSAŞ). Turkish Aerospace has manufactured a total of 308 F-16s: 262 for the TurAF and 46 for the Egyptian Air Force. In addition, Turkish Aerospace upgraded F-16s of the TurAF and Jordanian and Pakistani Air Forces. Based on ever-expanding infrastructure and experience, Turkish Aerospace initiated many indigenous and international programs.

Now, on the 35th anniversary of the delivery of the first indigenously manufactured F-16 fighter jet, Turkish Aerospace is preparing for another major milestone: the rollout of the first prototype of the Milli Muharip Uçak (MMU, National Combat Aircraft).

Turkey’s MMU (National Combat Aircraft)

The MMU is envisaged as incorporating many state-of-the-art technologies and capabilities such as very low observability, advanced sensors, and data-link systems as well as the capability to carry a wide range of guided weapons, all of which are characteristic features of fifth-generation combat aircraft such as F-22, F-35, J20, and Su57. The MMU’s abilities will be further enhanced through extensive use of artificial intelligence (AI) and neural networks (NN).

The MMU program consists of four main phases: Conceptual Design, Design and Prototype Qualification, Initial and Full Operation Capability, and Serial Production. The first phase, with the assistance of Sweden’s Saab Automobile started in 2011 and was completed in 2013. A contract for the first stage of the second phase, namely Engineering Development and Preliminary Design (ED&PD) was signed between the Turkish Presidency of Defence Industries (SSB, Savunma Sanayii Başkanlığı) and Turkish Aerospace in August 2016. Following this, Turkish Aerospace signed a contract with BAE Systems for consultancy and technical assistance in 2018. The project’s schedule officially started in September 2018.

The first stage of the second phase is planned to last for four years, and it will be followed by the second stage, Critical Design and Prototype Qualification, which is expected to last a total of eight years.

The program is currently in the ED&PD phase. Turkish Aerospace plans to roll out the first prototype in April 2023 with the maiden flight planned for the end of the same year. Service entry will take place in the late 2020s; the MMU is planned to form the backbone of the TurAF combat fleet, operating until around 2070.

Drone revolution

The remarkable operational and export successes of Turkish drones have made Turkey a major player in this field. More than 30 countries use Turkish drones such as Bayraktar TB2, Bayraktar Akinci, ANKA, and AKSUNGUR. The two leading Turkish drone manufacturers, Turkish Aerospace and Baykar Technology, are currently working on jet-powered combat drones, namely the ANKA-3 and the Bayraktar Kızılelma, respectively.

Both platforms will form the backbone of the TurAF drone strike capability. The ANKA-3 is expected to perform missions alongside the MMU, as a “loyal wingman,” whereas the Kızılelma will also be able to be operated from the TCG Anadolu amphibious landing ship with its short takeoff and landing capability.

Future plans

Turkey’s removal from the F-35 project because of the acquisition of the S-400 air defense system from the Russian Federation directly affected the TurAF’s modernization plans. The TurAF previously planned to operate the F-35 alongside the modernized F-16 fleet, which would later be replaced by the MMU. The MMU program, in its early stages, called for the development of an air superiority fighter. Strike missions would be undertaken by the F-35.

The elimination of the F-35 from the road map forced Turkey to redraw these plans and focus on a true omnirole capability for the MMU, employing a wide range of air-to-air and air-to-ground weapon systems, all developed or under development by Turkish companies. The F16 fleet, through the indigenous avionics upgrade under the Özgür program, will see an extended period of service. Additionally, Turkey’s request of 40 F-16Vs and upgrade kits for 79 aircraft is important for filling the potential capability gap until the full operational capability of the MMU fleet.

Time is of the essence for the TurAF. Almost all neighboring countries have been allocating significant resources to upgrade their air forces: Greece is taking delivery of Rafale fighters from France and upgraded F-16s from the United States, and Israel is operating more than 30 F-35s and has recently announced acquisition plans for the advanced F-15EX fighter. Meanwhile, Egypt is operating the Rafale, MiG-29SMT, and is currently in negotiations with South Korea for the license production of the FA-50 light combat aircraft. And, Iran has recently reportedly taken delivery of 24 Su-35s, which were originally produced for Egypt.

The MMU program, therefore, has become even more crucial. First, it will be the main asset for the sustained qualitative superiority of the TurAF. Second, it will allow the TurAF and Turkey to achieve operational independence in the air domain. And third, it will enable a large defense and aerospace industry base to evolve around Turkish Aerospace, which in turn will be needed to develop even more challenging programs.

Turkey has recently requested the sale of 40 F-16V fighter aircraft from the United States and upgrade kits for 80 F-16s in its inventory. This move came amidst the strained relations between the two countries and shortly after Turkey’s removal from the fifth-generation fighter aircraft F-35 Lightning II development project by the U.S. because of Ankara’s procurement of the S-400 air defense system from the Russian Federation.

Under normal conditions, the F-16 sale would be a military/technical matter, managed through complex bureaucratic procedures and formalities. However, due to the lengthy list of complex issues between Ankara and Washington, most of which have direct implications for Turkey’s near periphery and NATO alliance, the outcome of the F-16 inquiry will most likely be a major turning point in Turkey’s foreign relations.

To understand better the significance of Turkey’s possible F-16V procurement in terms of military capabilities and strategic implications, we must first take a look at Turkey’s current air power and force structure.

The F-16 and Turkey

Turkey is one of the major users of Lockheed Martin’s F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft. The Turkish Air Force (TurAF) had taken delivery of a total of 270 F-16C/D Block 30, Block 40, Block 50, and Block 50+ aircraft.

Shortly after the lifting of the U.S. arms embargo in 1978, Turkey started a program to modernize its air force. The majority of the combat aircraft fleet was nearing the end of their useful service, and the lack of spares because of the embargo significantly decreased serviceability. As a result of a technical evaluation, the F-16 Fighting Falcon by General Dynamics was selected.

An agreement for the purchase of 160 F-16C/D Fighting Falcon aircraft was signed between Turkey and United States on December 9, 1983. The agreement covered the sale to Turkey of 160 F-16C/Ds, Block 30 and Block 40 versions, under a project designated “Peace Onyx” through local production.

Turkey’s Türk Uçak Sanayii A.Ş (TUSAŞ) formed a joint venture with General Dynamics, named TUSAŞ Aerospace Industries (TAI) and with General Electric under the name of TUSAŞ Engine Industries (TEI) for the manufacture of the F-16s and its engines, respectively. For the electronic warfare systems of the aircraft, another joint venture, named Mikrodalga Elektronik Sanayii (MIKES) was established.

F-16 upgrades

TurAF started a modernization project for the F-16 fleet in the early 2000s in order to increase the capabilities of the aircraft. Designated as Peace Onyx III, the project covered the upgrade of the mission systems of the aircraft. The project was started in July 2007 and covered a total of 175 Block 40 and Block 50 F-16s. A total of 35 Block 30 F-16s also received limited upgrade. TAI delivered the first aircraft to TurAF on November 2, 2011, and the project was completed in April 2015.

Meanwhile, Turkey also undertook a national upgrade program under the Özgür Project, which started in 2010. The project aims at the development of an indigenous mission computer and mission systems avionics for the F-16. With the nationalization of mission computers, the project aims to ensure the integration of national air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons. Furthermore, the experience gained from the Özgür Project will be incorporated into the advanced jet trainer and light attack aircraft HÜRJET, and Milli Muharip Uçak (MMU or National Combat Aircraft) fighter development projects. An F-16C Block 30 has been used as the prototype aircraft in the project, and the upgrade of the remaining Block 30 fighters is on the agenda.

Another major improvement of the F-16 fleet is the Structural Modernization Program, under a contract signed in 2015. The project covers structural improvement work to increase the service life of 35 F-16C/D Block 30 aircraft. With this modernization, the service life of the F-16C/D Block 30 aircraft is planned to be extended from 8,000 to 12,000 hours.

What is the F-16V?

The F-16V is the latest version of the F-16 Fighting Falcon family. The aircraft incorporates several improvements over the previous model – the most important of which is the new radar, named AN/APG-83. The AN/APG-83 is an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, which does not have any moving mechanical parts unlike its predecessors. AESA radars offer greater detection and tracking ranges, and are capable of tracking multiple targets compared to mechanical pulse-Doppler radars.

In addition to the AESA radar, the F-16V is equipped with a modern commercial off-the-shelf (COTS)-based avionics subsystem; a large-format, high-resolution cockpit display; and a high-volume, high-speed data bus. The flight control system is enhanced by an Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance System (Auto GCAS) to prevent crashes in case the pilot loses control due to blackout, which usually occurs during agile maneuvers. The service life of the aircraft has also increased from 8,000 flight hours to 12,000, thanks to structural improvements.

The F-16V is offered as a new production aircraft and an upgrade package to existing F-16s. Taiwan is the first customer of the F-16V solution as the country signed a $1.85 billion contract with the U.S. in 2012 to upgrade 142 F-16A/Bs. Singapore, South Korea, and Morocco signed contracts to upgrade their F-16s to the F-16V standard. The latest customer for the F-16V upgrade is Greece, which will have 84 of its F-16C/Ds modernized under an agreement signed with the U.S. in late 2019.

In addition to upgrade projects, there have been several contracts for newly built F-16Vs: a total of 149 F-16Vs have been ordered by Bahrain, Bulgaria, Morocco, the Philippines, Slovakia, and Taiwan. A heavily modified F-16V, designated as F-21, is being offered to India.

Turkey’s F-16V request

According to press reports, Turkey submitted a letter of request (LOR) to the U.S. government on September 30, 2021 for the acquisition of 40 F-16V aircraft and kits to upgrade 80 aircraft to the F-16V configuration.

The LOR is a document prepared by the customer government and submitted to the U.S. government to initiate the formal procedure under the Foreign Military Sales procurement system, which is one of the U.S. arms sales schemes. The LOR defines the requirement of the recipient government, the number and type of the weapon platform or system that is desired to be purchased, and the administrative details.

The preparation and submission of the LOR does not guarantee the sale per se, but it is important to note that during its preparation, militaries and bureaucracy from both sides work together, confer, and discuss the general content of the letter. Therefore, the submission of the LOR for the F-16Vs implies that some military/technical discussion between the Turkish and United States’ militaries had taken place.

So, why has Turkey asked for F-16s from the U.S. that previously denied the delivery of F-35 next-generation combat aircraft and imposed sanctions on it?

The procedure’s next milestone is the approval by the U.S. government and congress. Subject to many factors – most of which are political – upon getting congressional approval, the U.S. Department of Defense will prepare a letter of offer and acceptance (LOA), which can be described as a contract. Therefore, the F-16V request will be a stress test for the relationship between Turkey and U.S., which has already been extremely strained for the past few years.

So, why has Turkey asked for F-16s from the U.S. that previously denied the delivery of F-35 next-generation combat aircraft and imposed sanctions on it? There are two main factors that resulted in this request.

On August 29, 2021, Baykar Savunma delivered the first batch of Bayraktar Akinci (Raider) drones to the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF). Designed and developed by Baykar Savunma, Akinci is the latest culmination of the company’s drone development projects. The introduction of Akinci into service is a major milestone in Turkey’s efforts to become a major drone power and leading defense and aerospace technologies developer.

In the past few years, Turkey’s drone industry, its products and their performance in various operations and conflicts have generated great interest. This is especially true in regard to the impact of Anka-S and Bayraktar TB2 armed drones on the Syrian regime forces during Operation Spring Shield in early 2020, which stimulated debates among scholars, observers, and professionals in defense and security circles regarding the future of drones and warfare in general.

As a direct result of their performance in various conflicts, Turkish drones have attracted the interest of numerous countries. Turkey has so far exported Bayraktar TB2 to Qatar, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Libya, Morocco, and Poland, while Turkish Aerospace Industries has sold Anka to Tunisia. Selçuk Bayraktar, the chief technology officer of Baykar Savunma, has recently stated that the company is in talks with ten countries for the export of Bayraktar TB2.

As a project, Akinci represents the opening of a new chapter for Turkey both in terms of its air power with its new capabilities, and with regard to its aerospace industry by virtue of its new technological competencies.

Akinci and its capabilities

The Bayraktar TB2 is a tactical armed drone, capable of flying at 18,000 feet altitude for up to 27 consecutive hours. The aircraft can carry two or four guided bombs, and is capable of executing a fully autonomous takeoff and landing. Serving the Turkish Armed Forces, the Bayraktar TB2 has fulfilled over 350,000 flight hours since 2014. Having a maximum takeoff weight of around 700 kg, Bayraktar TB2 carries a sophisticated electro-optical camera system to detect and track targets while collecting imagery intelligence (IMINT).

Akinci, on the other hand, is much bigger, heavier, and more sophisticated than Bayraktar TB2. According to the information on the company’s website, Akinci has a maximum takeoff weight of around 6,000 kg, making it the biggest aircraft designed and developed in Turkey. Akinci is powered by two turboprop engines provided by Ukrainian engine manufacturer Ivchenko-Progress. It can carry around 1,500 kg of guided bombs and missiles as well as an electro-optical camera, radar, and various electronic intelligence/signals intelligence (ELINT/SIGINT) sensors. Akinci can remain airborne for approximately 24 hours at 30,000 and 40,000 feet altitude.

Also, with the use of laser target designator systems, Akinci can illuminate a target, calculate guidance information for onboard precision weapon systems or pass along that target information to friendly units for strike. The TAF showed remarkable capabilities in executing such complex air-to-surface strike operations in Idlib, Syria and in Libya, and assisted Azerbaijan in achieving the same in Nagorno Karabakh. By virtue of its greater payload-carrying capacity both in terms of weapons and sensors, Akinci will boost the network-centric organization of the TAF.

Akinci will also be equipped with an advanced radar system, under development by ASELSAN. Incorporating active electronically scanned array (AESA) technology, the radar will enable Akinci to detect aerial and ground targets over a long range irrespective of weather. The AESA radar is highly resistant to enemy electronic countermeasures and enables the platform to track several targets simultaneously. Akinci, through onboard air-to-air missiles, can engage with aerial threats on its own or pass along the target information to friendly units, contributing to the update of the strategic air threat scene.

Last but not least, Akinci will be equipped with various types of ELINT/SIGINT sensors, which are extremely crucial in executing strategic intelligence missions during both times of peace and conflict. With its capability of flying for long periods at high altitudes, Akinci will be able to cover large regions around Turkey, collecting intelligence over different segments of the electromagnetic spectrum.

All the aforementioned imagery, radar, and electronic intelligence data will be transmitted to the ground control system and other friendly assets through an onboard satellite communications (SATCOM) system developed by ASELSAN. With the help of the SATCOM and Türksat satellites, Akinci can be controlled over an extremely long range, receiving command signals, and sending back all intelligence data. In this way, the SATCOM-equipped Akinci will increase Turkey’s strategic intelligence and strike range.

The transformation of the Turkish aerospace industry

Akinci is the largest air platform to be designed, manufactured, tested, and flown by Turkey. Designing and manufacturing a six-ton drone that is equipped with various sensors and precision guided weapons as well as a ground control system to monitor and control all functions through direct line-of-sight and SATCOM communications data links require advanced skills and know-how in several engineering and project management skill sets.

To establish and maintain a supply chain to manufacture the aircraft and the incorporated ground systems, and deliver them on time to various customers, The Turkish Aerospace Industries and the entire ecosystem of subcontractors and suppliers needed to transform. In other words, Akinci, as well as other ambitious Turkish Aerospace Industries projects such as the TUSAŞ MMU (Milli Muharip Uçağı or National Fighter Jet), Hürjet, and T625 Gökbey, can be considered as catalysts of the transformation of the Turkish aerospace industry. Through the realization of these challenging projects, the Turkish aerospace sector build up the necessary experienced human resources and infrastructure to reinforce and develop its position in the global market.

Akinci epitomizes Turkey’s ambitions of becoming a drone power through indigenous development of advanced technologies and the possession of highly capable systems and platforms. The effectiveness and efficiency of armed drones in counterterrorism operations and in regional conflicts arguably provided enough motivation to decision-makers for devising, planning, and executing a national drone strategy. Starting with the Anka and Bayraktar projects, Akinci is the latest step in this strategy.

Akinci’s impact, both as an armed drone and as an aerospace industry product, for Turkey is worth monitoring. Without a doubt, it will act as a capability multiplier for the Turkish Armed Forces in the short term. Its export performance and role in Turkey’s regional security policies will likely be seen in the medium term.