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n an unusual diplomatic move, China has extended an offer to support Hungary in public security matters, marking a shift from the traditional focus on trade and investment. The proposition comes amidst Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s visit to Beijing, highlighting the long-standing strategic partnership between the two nations.

Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong expressed China’s intention to strengthen law enforcement and security ties with Hungary as they commemorate their 75th year of diplomatic relations. Wang emphasized a desire to make these efforts a “new highlight of bilateral relations,” particularly in combating terrorism and transnational crimes.

The discussions also encompass security and law enforcement capacity building under President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, which seeks to enhance global connectivity through trade and infrastructure projects. During his visit to Budapest, Wang met with Interior Minister Sandor Pinter, signing documents on law enforcement and security cooperation, although specific details were not disclosed.

A diplomatic victory within the European Union

This security assurance comes at a time when Hungary, a Russian ally, has been working to reduce its dependence on Western countries. Hungary has notably resisted pressure to endorse the expansion of NATO in Europe and is the only NATO state that has not ratified Sweden’s application to join the security bloc.

China’s move is seen as a diplomatic victory within the European Union, especially considering Hungary’s growing affinity towards Beijing. The Central European nation’s divergence from EU positions on China-related matters has already strained the bloc’s collective stance.

Hungary’s willingness to align itself with China has led to opposition or abstention from EU positions critical of China on issues such as human rights. Additionally, despite warnings from the European Commission, Hungary hosts Huawei Technologies’ largest logistics and manufacturing base outside China.

Hungary’s growing independence

The security pact with Hungary showcases China’s diplomatic influence in the European Union, creating complexities within the EU’s approach to its relationship with China, characterized by differences on human rights, trade imbalances, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The move underscores Hungary’s growing independence in shaping its international relations.

On the occasion of the 75th anniversary of bilateral diplomatic ties, China expressed its commitment to working with Hungary to implement key consensus reached by their leaders. The goals include maintaining high-level exchanges, deepening political mutual trust, strengthening people-to-people exchanges, expanding cooperation across diverse fields, and enhancing communication and coordination in international and regional affairs. Wang emphasized the intention to elevate law enforcement and security cooperation to a new highlight of bilateral relations.

During his visit to Hungary, Wang held meetings with Hungarian Minister of Interior Sandor Pinter, where they signed documents related to law enforcement and security cooperation, marking another step in the ongoing collaboration between the two nations.

Source: Reuters

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lovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico expressed his support for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s veto on a €50 billion European Union financial aid package for Ukraine. During a joint press conference in Budapest, Fico criticized Brussels for attempting to “punish” Hungary over its stance on funds for Ukraine.

Fico firmly stated that as long as he leads the Slovak government, he will not agree to a country being punished for defending its sovereignty.

Orbán, who has been in a standoff with other EU leaders, including a clash at the December European Council summit, argued against allocating funds from the EU budget for Ukraine.

He proposed a separate budget for aid to Ukraine to prevent any negative impact on the EU budget. Orbán reiterated that he does not want to jointly take up a loan and stressed the importance of aiding Ukraine in a way that does not harm the EU’s budget.

50 billion financial support plan

The €50 billion financial support plan for Ukraine, requiring unanimity, faced opposition from Hungary due to concerns about corruption in Ukraine, the effectiveness of Western support in the conflict, and the principle of EU budget support for member countries. Despite pressure from other EU leaders, Orbán remained steadfast in his position.

The EU leaders are set to discuss the issue at a summit on February 1, and Brussels is exploring ways to overcome Orbán’s veto. Last week, 120 Members of the European Parliament signed a petition urging actions to limit Hungary’s voting rights.

However, Fico supported Orbán’s proposal to find alternative sources for aid to Ukraine and criticized the EU for attempting to curtail Hungary’s voting rights. The upcoming summit will likely play a crucial role in shaping the EU’s approach to financial support for Ukraine and its long-term budget revisions.

EU budget

“If we aim to provide assistance to Ukraine, a necessity that I strongly advocate, we must ensure it doesn’t adversely impact the EU budget,” stated Orbán on Tuesday.

EU leaders are scheduled for another meeting on Feb. 1 to negotiate a deal on the financial package, with Orbán’s influential veto power remaining a significant factor.

Fico, expressing his support for Orbán’s stance, endorsed the idea of splitting the funding into four installments, subject to annual reassessment and potential blocking.

“I eagerly anticipate our gathering on Feb. 1 in Brussels, where we will observe and fully understand your rightful advocacy, as initiated during the last European Council meeting,” Fico conveyed to Orbán.

Sources: Anadolu, Politico, and Reuters

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n a statement, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has declared that the European Union must not initiate membership discussions with Ukraine, marking a clear stance from Hungary on the burgeoning issue. This announcement comes ahead of the EU leaders’ meeting slated for mid-December, 2023, where they are expected to consider the European Commission’s recommendation for Ukraine to commence membership talks contingent upon meeting the requisite conditions.

Orban, holding power since 2010, emphasized that the ongoing financial dispute with Brussels—stemming from billions of euros in EU funds suspended over Hungary’s rule-of-law infractions—should not be conflated with Hungary’s position on Ukraine’s prospective EU accession talks. The Prime Minister vehemently stated that this matter is not a transactional issue and insisted that Hungary is entitled to the funds in question.

Amidst economic challenges, including stagnation and the highest inflation rates in Europe, peaking above 25% in the first quarter, Hungary’s financial dealings with the EU are under intense scrutiny. Orban’s government has had a history of conflicts with the European Union and its executive arm, particularly over tightening state control over various institutions and a controversial law impacting the LGBT community.

Status of Ukraine’s territory

Addressing the broader questions about Ukraine’s candidacy, Orban pointed to the complexities of considering EU membership for a country currently engaged in conflict, raising practical concerns over the indeterminate status of Ukraine’s territory and population due to the ongoing war.

As discussions continue, Orban has been vocal about the EU’s strategy towards the war in Ukraine, labeling it a failure and advocating for a secondary plan, given his belief that Ukraine will not triumph in the frontline battle against Russia. His remarks come at a critical time as the European Commission is pushing for unanimous member state support to bolster the long-term EU budget, particularly to maintain financial assistance to Ukraine.

Orban’s resistance to increased aid for Ukraine stands in stark contrast to other EU states’ positions, potentially positioning him as an opponent to further support for Kyiv. Other EU leaders have criticized Orban’s stance, urging that the EU should not be held “hostage” over financial support for Ukraine.

Disapproval of Orban’s approach

Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Xavier Bettel, among others, has expressed disapproval of Orban’s approach, especially in light of his recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Orban, however, defends his dialogue with Moscow, asserting the importance of open communication channels.

As the EU summit in December approaches, member states are gearing up for decisive talks on the budget revision, with divergent views on how to effectively support Ukraine and enhance EU defense capabilities. A conclusive decision is anticipated at the summit, setting the stage for the EU’s fiscal and foreign policy trajectory in the coming year.

Sources: Reuters, Radio Free Europe, and Politico Europe

On April 3, Viktor Orbán, the candidate of Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Alliance and the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP), claimed victory for his fourth consecutive term as prime minister against the six-party United for Hungary coalition’s candidate Péter Márki-Zay.

In the final days leading to the elections, the war in Ukraine reflected heavily on campaign narratives, increasing voter turnout to 69.54% and advantaging Orbán who largely dominates Hungarian media. The opposition maintains that the elections were not on fair grounds with checks and balances issues and gerrymandering.

Following his 53% win, Orbán mocked Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky as an opponent to overpower through his campaign, and sent a message to the EU saying that conservative civic and patriotic politics was the future. He was able to maintain a two-thirds majority in the parliament, which the opposition claims

Orbán used to his advantage in his prior terms. However, a referendum in which Orbán advocated in favor of banning educational material for minors claiming that it promotes homosexuality and sex reassignment was deemed invalid.

The war in Ukraine and the election in Hungary

On March 15, during rallies commemorating the Hungarian Revolution of 1848, an important event shaping the formation of the Hungarian national identity, the war in Ukraine shaped the electoral campaigns’ narratives. Orbán presented his followers with a choice of a “pro-peace right” or “pro-war left.” Similarly, Márki-Zay remarked a “single historic choice: to choose Europe over the East, freedom over tyranny.”

While Orbán’s idea of taking a pro-peace approach is keeping Hungary neutral and out of the war, his party accused his opponent of wanting to send Hungarian soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Márki-Zay stated that these were “slanderous claims.”

Márki-Zay criticized Orbán for serving Putin’s interests, and argued that Hungarians thought it was Putin and not Brussels that needed to be stopped for peace to prevail. The opposition ran with a promise for a new constitution to restore the rule of law that it claims Orbán has marred, alongside accusing Orbán of promoting a hate campaign towards minorities and certain persons, namely George Soros. The opposition mainly stood for a pluralistic political system and the repairing of alliances with the EU and NATO.

Opening to the East

During Orbán’s 12 years in power, Hungary has cultivated an amicable relationship with Russia alongside dissent from the EU. Their relations started flourishing in 2011, when Hungary introduced an “Eastern Opening” policy to trade with countries like Russia, China, and Turkey to counterbalance economic ties with the West.

Three years later, Hungary gave a construction project to Russia for expanding Hungary’s only nuclear plant with Russian financing, which has caused much speculation within the EU. Hungary has confirmed it will move forward with the project after calls from the opposition to scrap it in the wake of the Ukraine war.

Furthermore, during the Russian annexation of Crimea, Hungary was hesitant to sanction Russia. In November 2021, the Hungarian foreign minister was awarded the highest state honor for non-Russians, the “Friend of Russia” award.

Orbán’s reasoning can be summarized in an interview on March 3, where he stated Hungary was caught up between major geopolitical powers and that it was NATO expansions that triggered the war by not appealing to Russian security demands.

He described Russia-Hungary relations as balanced and fair, hailed China’s strong economic endurance post-2008, and articulated his interests in developing a beneficial relationship with China, which he acknowledged as an emerging world power in the shifting world order.

Orbán evaluated the current Anglo-Saxon order in a manner reminiscent of his issues with the EU, saying, “Anglo-Saxons want the world to recognize their position as morally right. For them, it’s not enough to accept the reality of power; they also need you to accept the things that they think are right. The Chinese have no such need.”

Hungarian voters and the Ukraine crisis

A recent Pulzus Research survey shows the differences in how voters of different parties perceive the war. It found that 25% of Fidesz-KDNP supporters said that Russia had launched a “justified war” to protect the Russian minority in Ukraine.

Fewer than half of Fidesz-KDNP voters agreed that the attack on Ukraine was a show of great power aggression, and 26% percent said they did not know why the war broke out. Meanwhile, 89% of opposition supporters view the conflict as a war of great power aggression.

The major difference in perception may be due to the government’s pro-Russia stance over the years in addition to some pro-government media rhetoric. Although most major pro-government outlets have displayed neutral reporting on the war, pro-Russia narratives were put forward by some experts.