If the current debates on—or Turkish reservations regarding—the application by Sweden and Finland for NATO membership are reviewed, the calculus of the alliance, per the identified parameters, can expose the pains and gains for these countries, NATO, and, specifically, Turkey.
Read: Will Sweden and Finland Join NATO amid the Russia-Ukraine War?The lack of foresight and predictions hints at a possible divergence in international relations between the U.
Recently, Finland and Sweden, which traditionally take an approach of non-alignment and military independence, face predicaments of policy change with respect to their pacifism and the historic decision of joining NATO.
How will the Russia-Ukraine War affect the stance of countries that have historically followed a non-aligned or neutral status? Past political and military tensions with Russia have been used to open public discussion in Finland and Sweden, and to lobby for the idea of breaking with the past security identity policy and join NATO.
congress will probably not allow the sale of F-16s to Turkey or will put forward some conditions, such as not using the jets against Greece or unconditional ratification of Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership.
ollowing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, NATO membership was deemed so essential and urgent for Russia’s neighbouring countries, Sweden and Finland, that an intense diplomacy traffic was initiated immediately after the start of the war.
Read: Sweden's NATO Membership: Will Turkey's Realism Prevail?Turkey’s contributions to the alliance did not end when the Soviet bloc was dissolved in 1991.
Read: Sweden's NATO Membership: Will Turkey's Realism Prevail?In the twentieth century, the terms came to refer to political systems where a single person or group exercise political power exclusively, and to their leaders.
Read: Will Sweden and Finland Join NATO amid the Russia-Ukraine War?
New era of defense spending
Following Germany’s path, Belgium announced an increase in its defense budget from the current €4.
Read: Sweden and Finland NATO Membership: The Calculus of Alliance PoliticsWith the Strategic Compass published in March 2022, the EU announced that it aims for a stronger and more capable EU in security and defense.
regarding Manbij and their support for the YPG, Çavuşoğlu expressed his discomfort with America’s pro-Greece policy against Turkey while asking the Turkish government not to veto Sweden’s and Finland’s application to NATO.
Read: Will Sweden and Finland Join NATO amid the Russia-Ukraine War?Since 24 February, NATO members “have rallied together and acted quickly with new defence and deterrence measures such as activating the NATO defence plans, activating elements of the NATO Response Force, and approving the deployment of four new multinational battlegroups in Eastern Europe,” Mihai Chihaia, a policy analyst at the Brussels-based European Policy Centre, told Politics Today.
Read: Will Sweden and Finland Join NATO amid the Russia-Ukraine War?
Complex security environment
The security environment has been complex during the last three decades and will continue to be more complicated.
Many European Union countries including Germany, Sweden, Belgium, Poland, Lithuania, Romania, Denmark, France, Latvia, and the Netherlands, have declared their intention to increase their annual defense expenditures.
Read: Will Sweden and Finland Join NATO amid the Russia-Ukraine War?
Strategy-Making for Multilayered and Multilateral Security
The strategy-making of this era, with its obligation to address complicated structures and threats, requires flexible and critical thinking with intelligent technologies.