Read: How Wagner’s Mutiny Will Affect African Politics
Sudan (October 2021)
General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), seized the country’s government during a period of transitional government.
and EU support, Russia is less and less likely to bring the war in Ukraine to its desired conclusion, suffering huge military and economic losses, on the one hand, and internal instability on the other, as the Wagner mutiny demonstrated.
On the other hand, the presence of Russia's Wagner Group, which provides relative security, leads to the appearance of Russian flags in Niger and increased Russian influence in the region.
Russia has a strong presence in Mali now represented through the Wagner forces which contribute to maintaining its interests and providing security services to the Malian government.
Read: Wagner Group Strengthens Its Hold in Africa
Africa wants quick wins
What African countries want most are large investments that can get off the ground quickly.
Read: Libyans Themselves Are Best Suited to Handle Their ProblemsWith its military existence in Syria, Moscow found a door to knock on: it sent infamous Wagner mercenaries in support of Haftar and built another passage for itself between Sirte and Jufra, critical spots in Libya neighboring the Eastern Mediterranean.
Read: Iran’s Bitter Choice and the Russia-Ukraine WarSecond, Russian private military companies such as the Wagner Group are sent to war zones to support pro-Russian figures such as Khalifa Haftar of Libya and attempt to encircle NATO for strategic leverage such as the Russian military presence in Africa.
Policy in Libya
The Biden administration’s foreign policy in Libya is focused on counterterrorism and Russia’s growing role there via the presence of mercenaries like the Wagner Group, as well as supporting the new Government of National Unity (GNU) and their mission to hold free and fair elections in December 2021.
President Trump was even more nonchalant, particularly given his indulgence to Middle Eastern autocracies, until Russia's Wagner Group mercenaries started showing up.