The Erbil Conference that took place on September 24, 2021, and hosted more than 300 Iraqi delegates from all across Iraq, including tribal and religious leaders, called for the normalization of ties between Baghdad and Tel Aviv following the examples of Bahrain, Morocco, the UAE, and Sudan in 2020. However, reactions against the conference varied as did the reasons and motives behind it.

Initially, attendees’ addresses were mostly shaped around how normalization with Israel would be critical for the future of Iraq and how such a course is inescapable. For example, Sahar Karim al-Ta’i, a senior official in Iraq’s Ministry of Culture, indicated that Israel is a powerful country with strong relations with the U.S. and the rest of the world, and that Iraq cannot ignore this. “No force, local or foreign, has the right to prevent this call,” she added. Moreover, Sheikh Rissan al-Halbousi, an attendee from Anbar Province, stated that normalization with Israel is a necessity.

The conference was held in Erbil, a location that is politically symbolic. In 2017, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) conducted a referendum that asked for the independence of the KRG of Iraq. Although the results of the referendum could not be implemented and caused military clashes between the Peshmerga and the Iraqi army, Israel was one of a few countries that supported an independent Kurdistan. “Israel supports the legitimate efforts of the Kurdish people to achieve their own state,” said then Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As a result, the Kurds in Iraq have a better relationship historically with Israel than the Iraqi central government.

On the other hand, the relationship between Iraq and Israel is not strong due, among other reasons, to the influence of Iran, Israel’s archrival, in the country. The conference caused a domestic storm in Iraq, drawing the attention of regional actors as well. While Israel welcomed the conference, the Iran-supported Lebanese group

Hezbollah condemned it, calling it “a failed attempt to promote the culture of dialogue with the Israeli enemy.” Meanwhile, Iraq’s central government called the conference illegal and the spokesperson of the KRG stated that “the conference does not reflect their opinions and does not reflect the views and policies of the KRG.”

Even though only time will tell whether the conference will be successful or not, there are two motives that lie behind holding it. In the aftermath of the Abraham Accords, Israeli authorities wanted to show that it is possible to normalize ties between the Arab world and Israel without solving the Palestinian issue. However, the public opinion on Israel in the Arab world is unlikely to change as long as Israel continues to occupy Palestinian lands and to treat Palestinians in an oppressive and inhumane manner.

Pope Francis’s recent trip to Iraq is considered of historical importance both for its strong symbolic message and its political and diplomatic impact on regional developments. During his trip, which lasted three days (March 5-8), the highest authority of the Catholic Church visited the main cities and key places of Christianity in Iraq and held important meetings.

It is certainly not the first time that a pope expresses his will to visit Iraq, the land of the prophet Abraham and a country that has been tormented by many wars. Indeed, back in 1999, Pope John Paul II had to give up the idea for safety reasons. Pope Francis announced his arrival in Iraq on his so-called pastoral journey in a video-message by saying, “I come as a penitent pilgrim to implore forgiveness and reconciliation from the Lord after years of war and terrorism; to ask God for the consolation of hearts and the healing of wounds.”

The final goal of the trip was to bring comfort to Iraqis and especially to the Christians among them who have suffered from harsh persecution and destruction at the hands of Daesh (ISIS). In the spirit of solidarity and goodwill, Pope Francis declared, “From you, millennia ago, Abraham began his journey. Today, it is up to us to continue it, with the same spirit, along the paths of peace together!” The same words were taken up by the highest Iraqi institutional leaders. Both the President of the Republic Barham Salih and Prime Minister al-Kadhimi expressed their confidence that the visit is a message of peace for Iraqis of all religions and that it will help consolidate domestic and regional stability.

The supreme pontiff aimed to reaffirm the Christian presence as an important element of both the country’s and the region’s population. Hence, his first stopover in Baghdad was the Syriac Catholic Cathedral of Our Lady of Salvation, where a meeting with the exponents of the Christian community took place. Throughout recent history, Christian groups in Iraq have suffered and been forced to flee – especially after the fall of S H, following the U.S. invasion in 2003. From that moment, a spiral of violence and ethnic conflict began.

It is estimated that during Saddam’s regime, more than one million Christians lived in Iraq while nowadays they are around 300,000.

The massive destruction and hate campaign launched by Daesh has contributed to the further tearing apart of an already bleeding country. In recent years, many Iraqis have been forced to leave their homes and Christians, in particular, have been badly affected by the wartime conditions. It is estimated that during Saddam’s regime, more than one million Christians lived in Iraq while nowadays they are around 300,000. Currently, Iraqi law declares that “each Iraqi has the right to freely exercise his religion.” Islam, however, is “the state religion and the most important source for legislation” according to Article 2 of the Constitution of Iraq.

The pope’s visit to the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Najaf is considered the turning point of the visit to Iraq. Pope Francis is the first supreme pontiff and state representative to meet with Ayatollah Sistani. This is both a religious and political event. From the perspective of interreligious dialogue, their private conversation aimed at reaffirming the equality of all ethnic and religious components of Iraq and the region.

On the other hand, to achieve peace, the ayatollah has shown a preference to dialogue with the pope: the former signed a tacit pact of collaboration, which sounds like a subtle accusation against Tehran. “I hope that religious and spiritual leaders will urge interested parties, and especially the great powers, to give priority to reason and wisdom by renouncing the language of war.… [they] should not put their own interests first at the expense of the rights of peoples to live in freedom and with dignity,” the note reads.

The pope’s journey continued to Mosul and to Qaraqosh, the largest Christian-populated city of Iraq, whose biggest sanctuary was burned and desecrated by Daesh in the summer of 2014, forcing thousands of people to flee. However, the exodus of Christians from these lands is in continuity with the past – Christians were also forced to flee following the U.S.-led military operations “Desert Storm” in 1990 and “Iraqi Freedom” in 2003.

The last stopover for Pope Francis was Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), where he celebrated a public mass in the Franso Hariri Stadium. Afterwards, he welcomed the father of Alan Kurdi, the child who became a symbol of the tragedy endured by refugees as he was found dead on Turkish shores after their boat to Europe capsized.

The pope also visited a refugee camp that hosts displaced people who have fled Daesh. In the short period of three days, Pope Francis highlighted some of the deepest fractures and cleavages of our times in gestures symbolizing the flourishing of life over destruction and terrorism.

Pope Francis tried to bring hope and a spirit of unity to a region of the world where leaders do not go and where their efforts have proven unsuccessful. However, in this relaxed and festive atmosphere, there was margin for manipulation and an unfortunate attempt took place that aimed to create further problems and divisions.

The way forward in north east Syria wasn’t so clear until in early November Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke with Russia’s Vladimir Putin over the phone to hash out the details of a ceasefire agreement in Nagorno Karbakh. Erdogan reportedly said that the same spirit in the agreement in Azerbaijan should be applied in Syria.

Just as Russia and Turkey began setting up the ceasefire oversight arrangements in Nagorno Karbakh, Turkey’s sights were set on Ain Issa.

Even though the town is small, it sits on a critical juncture of the M4 highway. Ain Issa is around 40 km north of Raqqa City, and sits on the M4 highway which when heading goes directly to Manbij. Ayn al Arab, known to many as Kobani, is also a few kilometers north west of Ain Issa. Sitting on this major thoroughfare the town carries much more significant for any party or group that controls it.

In late November reports emerged of ongoing oil sales; by the self-styled Syrian Democratic Forces, a group which Ankara believes the PKK’s Syrian wing the YPG uses to hide behind, to Assad, despite America prohibiting such sales.

The outgoing US Special Representative to Syria James Jeffrey recently said 100,000 barrels of oil are being transferred monthly to Assad controlled areas. The oil is being transferred at the behest of Husam Katerji, a Assad loyalist named in the recent American ‘Caesar’ sanctions.

It’s moved from fields in north west Syria through Tal Tamer, also on the M4 highway, to Ain Issa, then south to Raqqa city. The oil is a main source of income for the terror groups operations. An issue that hasn’t been addressed by American officials mainly due to a lack of clarity on America’s political transition following Trump’s loss to Democratic president elect Joe Biden.

That’s not the only issue that Turkey has with the YPG operations in Syria. It was only after Turkey launched Operation Peace Spring and reached an agreement with Russia in Sochi that called for the withdrawal of the YPG from specific areas including Tal Rifaat, Manbij, and the border areas east of the Euphrates River that the cracks in the YPG’s local and regional alliances began to show.

Like America before them, Russia has also failed to force YPG forces from Manbij, Tal Rifaat, and Ayn al Arab on the border. The YPG is thought be responsible for dozens of improvised explosive device (IED) attacks killing droves of civilians in Turkey backed opposition controlled areas. Recently, a YPG sleeper cell member was captured by the Turkey backed SNA and provided critical intel about those operations.

The PKK has a long history in Syria rooted in the presence of the terror group’s founder Abdullah Ocalan in Syria in the early 90s.

The PKK has a long history in Syria rooted in the presence of the terror group’s founder Abdullah Ocalan in Syria in the early 90s. Turkey nearly went to war with Syria in 1999 because the terror group was thought to be using Syria for recruitment and training.

Decades later the PKK is still leveraging its relations with Damascus to establish a foothold for itself in the Syrian geopolitical arena. It’s that historic link to Syria that the PKK and its Syrian branch the YPG are clinging to hoping that they can eventually establish an autonomous administration.

In the following days it quickly become clear that Turkey and Russia are ceasing the small window of opportunity between US administrations to pressure the YPG financially and militarily. Reports emerged that Russia and Assad offered the YPG a safe exit from Ain Issa in exchange for the Russian military and Syrian regime forces to take control.

According to local sources, the deal was presented as a means to prevent Turkey backed SNA forces from taking the town, in what is believed to be a pre requisite for Turkish Russian cooperation.

It’s not clear if the YPG has agreed to the terms of the Russian-Assad proposal but it is clear that both Turkey and Russia are not letting down their guard.

Turkey continues to reinforce front line positions north and north east of Ain Issa with the help of SNA forces. On the other hand, Russia has sent reinforcements to Ain Issa to “reduce tensions” according to Russian Ministry of Defense’s center for Syrian reconciliation.

Close cooperation between Turkey and Russia has given both nations significant strategic advantages in Libya, Azerbaijan, and Syria. Their cooperation has bothered American and NATO officials and sidelined world powers that were more influential in Syria during the past decade.

But that cooperation is strained by a patchy history of operational flexes. The most notable of which are the 2015 downing and capture of a Russian pilot over near the Turkey-Syria border and the deadly Russian led attack on a Turkish military convoy in Idlib’s Jabal al Zawiya region that killed at least 33 Turkish soldiers in February.

While Turkey and Russia are putting the pressure on the YPG the United States has been trying to lift the YPG out of the shadows of the PKK’s terror designation. The PKK is a designated terror group in the U.S., the EU, and the UN. U.S. officials have repeatedly admitted that the American military worked with members of the group in Syria in the fight against Daesh despite knowing of their terror affiliation.

That’s why in November 2020, James Jeffrey made a final call for all PKK members to leave Syrian territory. But Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says that America is the reason the YPG didn’t fulfill its end of the bargain in the Sochi deal.

The YPG know very well that their strongest bargaining chip are the oil fields under their control. Whether they’re trying to secure better terms with Assad and Russia or trying to convince America not to cut them loose and abandon them while they’re surrounded on all sides.