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recent threat by the United States to impose sanctions on financial institutions engaged in business with Russia has led to a slowdown in Turkish-Russian trade, affecting payments for both imported oil and Turkish exports, according to seven sources familiar with the matter.

The U.S. executive order issued in December did not specifically target the energy sector, but it has complicated payments related to Turkish imports of Russian crude and Russian payments for a broader range of Turkish exports. The sanctions aim to reduce Kremlin revenue and disrupt its activities in Ukraine without impeding Russian oil flows to global markets.

While the threat has not disrupted Turkey’s crude supplies significantly, some delays and disruptions in payments have occurred, particularly due to Turkish banks reviewing business relationships and tightening compliance with Russian clients. Russia, a major crude and diesel exporter to Turkey, has faced similar payment problems with other countries, affecting oil supplies to India and complicating those to the United Arab Emirates and China.

Complexity to the trade relationship

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan have been working to maintain close ties, with Ankara opposing Western sanctions on Moscow. However, the recent threat of secondary U.S. sanctions on Turkish banks and companies has added complexity to the trade relationship.

The disruption in payments began after the U.S. executive order on December 22, raising concerns among Turkish banks about potential risks associated with doing business with Russia. Turkish exports to Russia in January saw a 39% year-on-year decline, while imports from Russia fell 20.2%. The impact has been more prominent in non-oil trade, with exports of machinery, in particular, coming to a halt.

Turkish banks are said to be taking “extremely meticulous” measures regarding sanctions, with compliance departments closely scrutinizing transactions. The U.S. State Department expressed encouragement for reports that Turkish banks are reviewing and tightening their compliance programs for Russian clients, emphasizing the responsibility of foreign financial institutions to avoid processing transactions benefiting Russia’s military or circumventing U.S. measures.

Heightened restrictions

Additionally, two other Turkish banks have reportedly issued 30-day closure notices to Russian corporate clients who had opened accounts following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The affected businesses include those using Turkey as a transit jurisdiction for settlements and deliveries, along with oil and gas traders, according to Iskander Mirgalimov, an international payments consultant for Russian businesses.

Individual clients are also facing heightened restrictions, including the necessity to maintain a higher account balance, as Turkish banks adjust their practices in line with increased scrutiny and compliance requirements.

These developments mark the latest impact of the U.S. sanctions threat on Turkish-Russian economic relations, adding further complexity to the financial landscape between the two countries. The situation continues to evolve, with potential consequences for businesses and individuals engaged in cross-border transactions.

Source: Reuters

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n an era marked by unprecedented global challenges, few issues resonate as profoundly as the quest for food security. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the grain shortage that followed showcased the grave vulnerability of existing systems. The imperative of ensuring that everyone, everywhere has access to safe, sufficient, and nutritious food looms large on the global stage. This month’s book bundle presents a curated selection of books that delve into food security, examining it from multiple angles, and offering insights, strategies, and solutions.

From the intricacies of international trade policies to the sustainability of food systems, and from the impacts of geopolitical conflicts to the strategic place of food, these books provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities in the realm of global food security.

Whether you are a policymaker, researcher, student, or simply a concerned global citizen, this collection provides valuable resources for understanding, navigating, and contributing to the discourse on global food security.

Food Security: Availability, Income and Productivity is a pertinent book that explores the pressing issue of global food security as our world population continues to grow. The author focuses on three key conditions necessary to achieve food security: food availability, adequate incomes, and increased agricultural productivity.

The book draws insights from history and contemporary contexts to thoroughly examine these conditions. It takes a close look at the obstacles preventing consistent food availability and discusses how to overcome these challenges. It also delves into the importance of ensuring sufficient incomes, highlighting programs like food stamps and food banks. Furthermore, the book provides valuable insights into the factors driving enhanced agricultural productivity.

Food Security caters to a broad audience, including agricultural experts, policymakers, and NGOs working in food aid. It’s also a valuable resource for students studying agriculture and public policy. The book not only informs but also encourages critical thinking about the complex task of feeding a projected nine billion people by 2050.

In a world where food scarcity is becoming increasingly worrisome, this book offers essential insights into the intricate web of food security. It provides a well-reasoned analysis that will contribute to ongoing discussions and efforts aimed at ensuring a sustainable food future for everyone.

William A. Kerr, Food Security: Availability, Income and Productivity (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2023) ISBN: 978 1 03531 270 2, 234 pages

Shadow Negotiators: How UN Organizations Shape the Rules of World Trade for Food Security by Matias E. Margulis is a groundbreaking exploration of the influence exerted by United Nations (UN) organizations within the World Trade Organization (WTO) despite their absence from the formal negotiation table. Margulis introduces the concept of “shadow negotiators,” illustrating how UN bodies strategically engage in political actions to shape multilateral trade negotiations.

The book’s primary focus is on the contentious issue of agricultural trade liberalization. It provides a detailed analysis of interventions by four UN organizations: the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), and the Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food (SRRTF).

Margulis unveils the innovative strategies these UN entities employ to influence global trade regulations. Importantly, he emphasizes that their motivation isn’t rooted in competition with the WTO or ideological opposition to trade liberalization. Instead, it stems from their concern that certain trade rules could negatively impact global food security, running counter to their core mission of addressing world hunger and safeguarding the right to food.

Shadow Negotiators is a meticulously researched work that offers fresh insights into the often-unseen dynamics of international trade. It’s essential reading for those interested in the intersection of trade policy and global welfare, making a valuable contribution to the field of international relations and trade studies.

Matias E. Margulis, Shadow Negotiators: How UN Organizations Shape the Rules of World Trade for Food Security (Stanford University Press, 2023) ISBN: 9781503633520, 292 pages

Universal Food Security: How to End Hunger While Protecting the Planet by Glenn Denning explores the path towards a world where hunger and malnutrition are eradicated, and everyone can access healthy and abundant food for a productive life. The book emphasizes the need to transform our food systems, focusing on sustainability and environmental restoration, from production to distribution.

Denning, drawing from his extensive experience in over fifty countries, offers a practical guide to making healthy diets accessible to all while ensuring sustainability. He identifies key priorities, including sustainable agriculture intensification, robust market infrastructure, responsible postharvest practices, promoting healthy eating, and establishing social safety nets. The book underscores the pivotal role of practitioner-leaders in driving this transformation, highlighting the importance of education and development in instigating change.

But beyond the roadmap, Denning reminds us that the engine driving this transformation is practitioner-leadership, underscored by education and development. This book stands as a testament to the potential for meaningful change when individuals and institutions commit to reshaping our world, making universal food security not merely a dream but a tangible and sustainable reality.

Glenn Denning, Universal Food Security: How to End Hunger While Protecting the Planet (Columbia University Press, 2023) ISBN: 9780231197618, 448 pages

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Global Food Security explores the global food security implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which occurred during a period of already high food prices due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The book highlights the importance of the Black Sea region for global food production and Russia’s role in supplying natural gas and fertilizers.

The potential disruption of trade in this region posed a significant threat, with the potential to raise food prices and worsen poverty and hunger in vulnerable countries. The conflict primarily impacted trade in cereals and vegetable oils, fertilizer exports, and energy costs, potentially pushing millions into hunger and poverty.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) responded swiftly by providing information and policy advice. They established a blog series and online resources to disseminate critical information rapidly. This book compiles these blog posts, offering an overview of the crisis’s progression, international responses, and lessons for ensuring food security in the wake of disruptions.

This book provides essential insights into a rapidly evolving crisis with far-reaching implications for global food security, making it valuable for policymakers and researchers.

Joseph W. Glauber, Ed. and David Laborde Debucquet. Ed., The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Global Food Security (IFPRI, 2023) ISBN: 9780896294394, 196 pages

Bread and Autocracy: Food, Politics, and Security in Putin’s Russia offers a compelling analysis of the pivotal role food has played in Russian politics from the 1917 Revolution to the present under Putin’s leadership. The authors, Janetta Azarieva, Yitzhak M. Brudny, and Eugene Finkel, argue that Russia’s transition from a grain importer to a global food exporter was a deliberate, long-term strategy aimed at enhancing national security and regime stability. This focus on food self-sufficiency sets Russia apart from other autocracies, as it prioritizes domestic food production over imports, highlighting its significance in maintaining autocratic rule.

The book’s relevance is heightened in today’s world, where food issues are once again at the forefront of global concerns and nations are emphasizing self-reliance. Bread and Autocracy provides a timely and comprehensive exploration of Russia’s unique approach to food politics, shedding light on its implications for both domestic and international affairs. It is a valuable read for those seeking a deeper understanding of Russia’s distinctive stance on food and its impact on political power. The book will be available in hardcover on September 1, 2023.

Janetta Azarieva, Yitzhak M. Brudny, and Eugene Finkel, Bread and Autocracy: Food, Politics, and Security in Putin’s Russia (Oxford University Press, 2023) ISBN: 9780197684368, 525 pages

When you’ve been punched in the face, it’s a good idea to gather your wits before returning to the fray. Still dazed from the Afghan war, the Biden team is already speeding toward even more dangerous confrontations in multiple directions—this time, with China in their sights instead of the older jihadist foes. American strategists are focusing on bigger targets across a wide arch of distant lands and waters—South and Central Asia, the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, and the western Pacific. As Washington struggles to regain its footing, we should try to point its leaders toward a better path—one leading to global development and cooperation instead of endless brinkmanship and more pointless wars. The name of that path is the New Silk Road.

The New Silk Road is an audacious vision that might have originated in the United States. Its spirit is American to the core: a transcontinental and transoceanic venture, marshalling the energies and resources of billions of people around the world in an astonishing effort to unite societies and markets in a single human community. Breathtaking. Foolhardy. Utopian. Exactly—that’s why it’s American to the core.

So, to our shell-shocked comrades in Washington: Pause a while, open your well-trained minds to a bit of brainstorming that can advance fundamental American dreams that, today, are universal yearnings and help turn them into concrete achievements. Join the New Silk Road, share in the credit of leading the greatest humanitarian enterprise of our time, and take your turn in steering it in the best possible direction.

Follow our European and Asian allies in making the New Silk Road a broader partnership that embraces international standards of human rights, environmental protection, and transparency. Present the developing countries of the global South with a stunning array of world-class technology and finance that transcends ideology and Great Power politics.

In other words, work to improve China’s Belt and Road Initiative instead of trying to subvert it, duplicate it or ignore it. The venture has gained too much momentum to be stopped and a competing effort won’t muster adequate resources, either economic or political. Forget about trying to mount a hostile takeover. Buy into an ongoing concern that has a promising future, but is still malleable enough to serve collective interests instead of the imperial ambitions of the Beijing bureaucrats who launched it.

Work to improve China’s Belt and Road Initiative instead of trying to subvert it.

The Chinese may have originated the project, but they don’t own it. In fact, the faster it spreads the more it defies their control and spawns demands for wider participation in decision-making—not just from other governments and international bankers, but from ordinary citizens and civil society groups around the world. Many of China’s showcase projects have been stymied or revamped in the face of well-organized protests from myriad local groups—tribes in Pakistan, fishermen in Indonesia, miners in Zambia, farmers in Myanmar, urban youth in Nigeria, shopkeepers in Iran, engineers in Mexico, and many others.

Since the project’s inception, Beijing has insisted that the New Silk Road is open to every country that wants to participate. The United States should hold China to that pledge and encourage America’s friends to do the same. This would be a welcome about-face from years of futile efforts by presidents Obama, Trump, and Biden to discourage European and Asian countries from partnering with the multinational banks and consortiums that have sprung up to support New Silk Road projects. Washington’s blocking tactics have failed; it’s time to follow in the path of the many allies who took their own counsel and left America on the sidelines.

If the United States wants to display a new willingness to collaborate with neighbors and adversaries alike, there is one enterprise with a potential impact—both symbolic and practical—that supersedes all others. Chinese engineers are drawing up plans for a high-speed rail corridor connecting the entire coastal rim of the north Pacific.

The proposed route starts in northeast China, passing along the shores of Siberia into Alaska and, then, down the west coast of Canada and the U.S. all the way to California. The most spectacular feature is a possible tunnel across the Bering Strait—a fifty-mile underwater link, nearly twice the length of the Channel Tunnel between England and France.

Many Siberia-Alaska ventures have been floated since the nineteenth century, usually dismissed as fantasies worthy of Jules Verne or Ferdinand de Lesseps. Today, however, there is greater interest than ever. Trans-Arctic shipping is gradually emerging as a realistic shortcut between Pacific and Atlantic ports. Air travel is falling in favor because of rising cost and alarm over pollution. High speed trains are commonplace and an inter-hemispheric railway is just one of several megaprojects competing for attention and financing on every continent.

Many nations have concrete reasons to be cautious in joining the New Silk Road—particularly concerns over debt service, human rights, labor practices, and the environment.  However, for the United States, the chief hang-up is psychological and ideological. How can Americans feel they are still number one in the world if they have to rub shoulders with so many other chefs in the same kitchen? Wouldn’t it be admitting defeat to sign up for an enterprise they didn’t start and can never dominate?

Self-doubt should not stand in the way. Americans know perfectly well how to use their power to advance the greater good. They’ve demonstrated that many times before and they are more than equal to the task of showing it again in even more convincing ways. By combining their talents with those of others, they can multiply that force and aim it at higher goals and more inspiring ideals.

Westerners who have lived in Pacific Asian countries and absorbed their daily rhythms feel the pervasive electricity in every nerve. The sense of optimism and confidence in the future is something they internalize and learn to take for granted—until they return to the United States and Europe where they’re quickly jolted by the seemingly unnatural rust, gloom, and obesity that creeped ahead in their absence.

For Americans, participating in the New Silk Road should not be seen as a defeat or loss of standing in the international order but rather as a chance to lead in bettering the world. The task of managing the New Silk Road should not be left to a single society. By encouraging partnerships instead of hierarchies, the developed and developing countries can share both benefits and burdens more equitably and, we hope, more peacefully.

In the most recent session of the Boao Forum for Asia in April 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave a speech in which he warned against U.S. plans of decoupling the two superpowers’ economies. Repetitively, he has voiced his concerns about the U.S. plans to undermine China’s standing in the international order. He also called for a new international order that is built by everyone and reflecting the changes in the reality of the global balance of power and economic role.

While Xi is trying to build bridges with the U.S. and the world, U.S. President Joe Biden looks keen on being more adversarial. In a recent speech at the White House, Biden touted confrontation and competition with China. He promised a $2.5 trillion infrastructure plan with the clear aim of competing with China and restoring American competitiveness as the leading global economy.

At this stage, global economic recovery post-COVID-19 will be contoured around the global reconfiguring of economic relations on a scale never seen since WWII. This will be particularly significant in the reorganization of the global supply chains which came under scrutiny since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis as countries struggle to secure essential raw materials, vaccines, protective gears, and other commodities due to governmental policies, consequential supply shortages, and the choking of the global shipping routes and ports due to COVID-19 closures.

In the forefront of U.S.-China supply chains competition is the competition over advanced technology supply chains. As the global economy turns more digital, 5G communication networks are becoming critical to the transformation to the digital age. Historically, the U.S. built its economic supremacy on the premise of leading cutting-edge technologies and exporting them to the world.

As China grows more independent in advanced technology research and manufacturing, it is seeking to be on par with the U.S. and threatening its historical supremacy. Identifying a strategic threat, the U.S. targets China’s technology supply chains in order to undermine Chinese capabilities and to slow down its progress. To do so, the U.S. is hampering China’s 5G network and technology building efforts. It has imposed sanctions on Huawei, the Chinese tech giant, and banned its equipment use in its networks.

The U.S. gave an ultimatum to allies and pushed them to ban Chinese companies from investing in their local 5G infrastructure.

Not only that, but the U.S. gave an ultimatum to allies and pushed them to ban Chinese companies from investing in their local 5G infrastructure. India, the U.K., Italy, France, Romania, and Sweden, to mention a few, have advanced legislations banning China’s technology investments and the use of its equipment in their upcoming 5G networks.

The U.S. has also imposed sanctions on several Chinese advanced technology companies such as artificial intelligence and satellite communication companies for alleged involvement in human rights violations and industrial espionage. However, and despite the U.S. efforts, many countries remain welcoming of Chinese 5G equipment. Germany, Pakistan, the UAE, Qatar, Hungary, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt keep their doors open to working with Huawei and ZTE to build their future communication infrastructure.

Furthermore, the resulting global shortages of chip supplies are leading many prominent manufacturers of cars and technological products to shut down some of their factories as they struggle to secure necessary supplies. China did not stop at stockpiling chips, but sought to gain an edge in the chip making industry, and in 2020, it became the world’s biggest buyer of chip making tools with a total spending of $19 billion.

Fighting back against the U.S. stranglehold, China did not shy away from using its own strong position in global supply chains of rare earth metals.

Feeling the urgency to secure U.S.-based chip supply chains, to cement the U.S. position in the global supply chain of chips, and to increase the pressure on China, earlier in March, Biden called for $50 billion spending to boost the U.S. chip industry. U.S. companies were also worried and sought to find alternatives to Asian supplies. For example, Intel announced that it is set to invest $20 billion in building a plant for chip manufacturing on U.S. soil.

Supply chains of rare earth metals

Fighting back against the U.S. stranglehold, China did not shy away from using its own strong position in global supply chains of rare earth metals. As of 2019, China controlled 90% of the global production of rare earth metals used in manufacturing advanced technological products. China has mulled sanctions on U.S. weapons manufacturers in a clear expression of willingness to weaponize the supply of rare earth metals to undermine the U.S. military.

Aware of the seriousness of any potential shortages, the U.S. is actively pursuing and funding the building of local processing plants to help deal with any potential curbs of exports by China. It has also invested with allies like Australia to help de-Chinese the Western supply chains of rare earth metals. Clearly, supply chain mistrust is spreading, and interdependence is seen as a vulnerability by the two superpowers.

India attempted to take advantage of the situation and tried to steer Western supply chains away from China by offering incentives for Western businesses to move shop from China to India. These incentives included, among others, cheaper rents, land allocations, and tax deductions. The U.S. also formed the Quad group consisting of the United States, Australia, Japan, and India to steer them away from falling heavily under Chinese influence. For example, the U.S. has signed agreements with these countries to supply them with U.S. COVID-19 vaccines known as the Quad Vaccine Partnership.

On the Chinese side, the Belt and Road Initiative continues to advance, while strategic agreements are being signed with Russia, Pakistan, and Iran with the aim of positioning China at the heart of global supply chains for raw materials and shipping routes. Despite the hurdles of the pandemic, China signed a new strategic investment treaty with the European Union with the aim of improving mutual investment standards to solidify fair competition and rule of law between the two.

China also flexed its regional economic muscle during the pandemic and managed to advance the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is a regional free trade agreement that involves 15 Asian nations constituting a third of the global GDP in an attempt to create a regional economic bloc like the U.S. federal system.

China is also building a new global financial infrastructure. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank continues to grow its mandate to fund development projects across the world with China playing the key role as a funder. To counter Chinese financial engineering, the U.S. established the American Development Bank to fund private ventures and public-private partnerships in developing countries in order to regain influence from seemingly increased Chinese investment in Africa and Latin America.

Finally, the global supply chain of finance is shifting from the U.S. towards China and other powers as evident by China’s renminbi (yuan) internationalization and its drive for the de-dollarization of global trade.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is the fruit of competitive international trade affairs in the Asia-Pacific that has been dominating world trade and investment environments in the past few decades. The treaty authorizes the member countries’ rational choice to stand between protectionism and free trade.

A treaty pact was signed on November 15, 2020 with virtual participation of the leaders of 15 member countries who represent almost 2.2 billion people and 30% of the world’s GDP. The anticipated greater plan and its practical gain will pump $200 billion into the global economy.

With the RCEP representing a bit less than one-third of the global economic output, this agreement is expected to have a great impact on the global economy. As observed in the last four years, more than half of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China have constantly shown annual growth of more than 6-7%.

In recent years, the ASEAN countries have not only displayed a galvanizing productivity in logistics supplies and international trade, but have also gradually improved and showed an engagement with the dominant capitalist economic principals in the form of freer commercial activities.

This development, triggered by determinant geo-political narratives in the Asia-Pacific region, effectuates creation of certain trust among members of nations and the global investors.

The spirit of the ASEAN

The terms of the agreement provide a functional vehicle to eliminate the internal differences of member countries so as to reinvigorate production and trade affairs, while obtaining gains from this regional development.

There are three major aspects which can be considered as crucial developments. The first is the ASEAN-centered expansion of trade and investment activities.

The second is related to the East Asian nations, such as China, Japan, and South Korea, that have agreed, for the first time, to comply with mutual trade rules. Without a doubt, this will have a greater influence on the region’s peace and stability. In particular, the East and South China Seas will reclaim the status of mutual waterways for all the nations adjacent to them.

The US: Inside or outside the game?

The RCEP resonates with signs of effort toward the gradual reconstruction of economic growth in the Asia-Pacific. It poses novel problems for the new U.S. administration that add to the distress of a presumed isolation. Thus, U.S. President-elect Biden may desperately search for alternatives for repositioning his country on the global stage, and, in particular, in the Asia-Pacific.

However, the grave challenge the Biden administration will face is how to convince the U.S. Senate to rebound the country’s leadership in the Asia-Pacific region. Rather, the U.S. may opt to revive the relationship with regional powers and the ASEAN.

Biden will have no other choice but to reinitiate the active presence of the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific since the U.S. is already in a declining standing on the eco-political scene.

Since the United States lost an opportunity by rejecting the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) four years ago, the new administration will potentially be excluded from the RCEP, and President-elect Biden will experience a great dilemma.

When one closely revisits the first term of the Obama administration, it becomes apparent that the Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, which serve as major drivers of global growth, intended to restructure regional trade affairs.

Liberalization is currently being experienced by the emerging regional powers. A larger regional trade agreement such as the TPPA or, as clearly proven today, the RCEP was expected since the beginning of this century, because of the changing nature of global business and trade.

When soft enforcement was used by certain regional powers such as Japan and Singapore to convince the Obama administration to sign the TPPA, it took half a decade to reach a consensus, which finally arrived in 2015. Therefore, it is not astonishing that an almost similar process began in 2012 for the regional countries in the Asia-Pacific to reach a similar pact.

Biden will have no other choice but to reinitiate the active presence of the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific since the U.S. is already in a declining standing on the eco-political scene.

Thus, the new U.S. administration is likely to take a step to create a peaceful environment on the global stage in order to gain the support of its allies, some of whom feel abandoned and others politically distanced. A better-case scenario would see the U.S. invest creatively in soft power rather than refocus on the competition with China as it has done in the previous years.

India’s Lack of Self-Reliance

India preferred not to sign the RCEP in order to protect its domestic market from the “invasion” of Chinese goods.

Although growth figures show that the country has progressed in the last half decade, the Narendra Modi government preferred to lean on restricted trade borders. But the major argument is that India is yet to conceive its regional power role.

Since U.S. President-elect Joe Biden and the Indian government dubbed the RCEP a new emerging power, there is an alternative for a new geopolitical structure in the Indo-Pacific.

Biden and Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris have professed a desire to engage with India. There are strong signs that Harris has been perceived positively by Indians. Harris’s ancestral link may be instrumentalized for the U.S. in the use of soft power towards India in order to help the country regain its lost presence in the Asia Pacific region.

The RCEP is the end product of the long negotiation processes among the member countries that have dominated global trade and economic activities in recent decades. If this treaty is successfully applied, there is little doubt that it will mold trade affairs on a global scale.