In a press release on June 30, the Turkish foreign ministry announced that 6 Turkish citizens were detained in Libya by Haftar’s militia, describing the hostile act as an act of banditry and piracy. The ministry warned in the statement that Haftar’s elements will become legitimate targets unless the citizens were released immediately.

On their side, Haftar’s self-style army spokesman denied their involvement in the affair. However, a day after the ultimatum, the 6 Turkish sailors were freed.

This accident came amid the escalation of tensions between Turkey and Haftar, and one day after Haftar’s self-style army – the so-called Libyan National Army (composed of local militias and gangs, Salafi Maskhali radical groups and mercenaries from African countries) – threatened to target Turkish ‘strategic targets.’ The spokesman of Haftar’s self-style army, Colonel Ahmed al-Mismari, said on June 28, ‘General Command [Haftar] has issued orders to the Air Force to target Turkish ships and boats operating inside Libyan regional waters, and issued orders to the Ground Forces to target all Turkish strategic targets such as companies, headquarters and projects belonging to the Turkish government.’ In response to this, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said that LNA would pay a heavy price for any attacks and underlined that Turkey will respond with the most effective and severe means.

Haftar’s hostility towards Turkey

Khalifa Haftar’s hostility towards Turkey is not a new reality. Being the sole representative of the anti-Arab Spring camp in Libya, which is backed by the UAE-KSA-Egypt axis, Haftar adopted an anti-Turkey policy since he began his coup d’état attempt.

Turkey has been siding with the popular demands for change in Arab countries and supporting the installation of a democratic regime in Libya.

Turkey has been siding with the popular demands for change in Arab countries and has been supporting the installation of a democratic regime in Libya and across the region. While doing so, Turkey has been acting within the boundaries of international law and the international consensus. Hence, Ankara has been supporting the national unity government based in Tripoli, which was established as a result of a UN-backed political process that ended by signing the Libya Political Agreement (LPA) in Skhirat, Morocco, in December 2015. However, refusing to ratify the LPA, Haftar and his backers adopted military means aiming to control Libyan territory and topple the national government in Tripoli, which is supported and seen as the representative of the Libyan people and backed by the international community, including Turkey.

Following Haftar’s control of Benghazi and the establishment of his self-style political entity, the so-called Libyan interim government in East Libya, Haftar did not hesitate to display his hostility towards Turkey despite the fact that Turkey’s special envoy to Libya, Emrullah Isler, had visited the government in East Libya and met with its Prime Minister, Abdullah al-Thani. In April, Haftar’s eastern-based interim administration’s Council of Ministers issued a new law recognizing the so-called Armenian Genocide and declared April 24 as the national day to commemorate this.

Haftar’s hostility does not only come as a result of being on opposite rival camps in Libya. It can also be seen as an adulation from Haftar to his regional backers, who are hostile against Turkey.

Haftar’s setback in Gharyan and his quest for an escalation with Turkey

Although it comes in consistency with his previous positions, Haftar’s latest escalation against Turkey aims to cover his heavy defeat in Gharyan and wishes to pull Turkey into the Libyan conflict. Thus, by this, he could justify the more intense involvement of his backers on the ground.

In April, the Haftar-led militia launched a military assault trying to capture Tripoli, the Libyan capital, which is under the control of the internationally recognized national unity government. However, despite the enormous military and political support by France, KSA, UAE, and Egypt, and regardless of the lack of reaction from the UN and the international community, Haftar’s militias could not advance towards Tripoli.

Haftar and his camp searched for a scapegoat and an external actor to cover their heavy defeat, and hence they came to blame Turkey.

On June 27, in a surprise attack, the forces allied to the Tripoli government managed to re-take control of Gharyan city, the strategic city in the south of Tripoli, which Haftar militias have used as a platform for their assault. Haftar militias were forced to withdraw from Gharyan, leaving sophisticated weaponry behind; including the U.S.-made Javelin anti-tank missiles, which cost more than $170,000 each. The missiles were apparently given to Haftar by the UAE in a violation of both the UN arms embargo and the sails agreement between the U.S. and UAE.

The major setback in Gharyan blew Haftar’s ambition to capture Tripoli and his aim to become the strong man of Libya. Therefore, Haftar and his camp searched for a scapegoat and an external actor to cover their heavy defeat, and hence they came to blame Turkey.

After this unsuccessful assault, it became clear that Haftar and his militia were unable and incapable of capturing Tripoli – though Haftar and his backers thought it would only be a matter of days or weeks at the most. In fact, in his progress on the ground, Haftar never encountered organized military forces such as the forces of the Tripoli government and the forces of Misrata city. Haftar’s militia has been progressing in open areas and against unorganized forces. This was its first test. The defeat in Gharyan made it clear that Haftar cannot deliver in the current balance of power.

Haftar wants to drag Turkey further into the Libyan conflict and pave the way for Turkey’s regional rivals to be more involved on the ground.

The fact that Haftar’s camp is pushing for escalation with Turkey reflects the state of crisis that he and his backers are going through. The defeat that Haftar’s camp faced through the inability to advance towards Tripoli and their setback in Gharyan brought down Haftar’s as well as his backers’ ambitions to capture Libya as a whole.

Faced with this setback, Haftar is trying to export his crisis through an escalation with Turkey, which he falsely blames for his defeat. He also wants to drag Turkey further into the Libyan conflict and hence pave the way for Turkey’s regional rivals and Haftar’s backers to be more involved on the ground, hoping that this would change the balance of power in his favor.

On 4 April, 2019, Haftar declared that he issued orders for his forces to move westward and take control of Tripoli, the capital of Libya, which is under the control of the UN-backed National Accord government. Critics of Haftar, including Turkey, accuse him of trying to seize power from the internationally recognized legitimate government by using force. However, Haftar and his supporters claim that they are trying to free Tripoli from militias, which they see as de-stabilizing the country.

Hostility between Haftar and Turkey is not new. Haftar previously held special conferences to attack the Ankara government and accused it of interfering in Libyan affairs.

Haftar said they destroyed a Turkish drone parked at Tripoli’s only working airport on Sunday and announced a ‘general mobilization’ as tensions grew between the Eastern administration and the Ankara government. This was in retaliation of Ankara’s backing the legitimate Accord government in Libya. They also wrote on Facebook that “The [Turkish] aircraft had been prepared to target our armed forces.”

It was also announced that they had arrested 2 Turkish citizens from Ajdabiya.

Earlier this week the Turkish Foreign Ministry accused Khalifa Haftar for arresting 6 Turkish citizens and warned that the Eastern forces would become a ‘legitimate target’ if the citizens were not released promptly.

During a press conference on Friday, after he lost 43 soldiers in a battle over the town of Gayran, Ahmed Al-Mesmari stated that he got orders to cut all ties with Turkey, banning all flights and ships to and from Eastern Libya. The issue escalated on Saturday, after Turkish firms, shops, and projects were declared illegal. Mesmari also added that any Turkish citizen on Libyan lands will be arrested justifying this escalation as a response to what he described as ‘Turkish aggression,’ which led to the fall of Gayran at their hands of the rival, National Accord government.

Libya’s Supreme State Council condemned the threats made by Haftar against Turkey, saying that it was an attempt by Haftar to justify his defeat in Garyan and described this as additional pretexts for the intervention of countries backing Haftar.

The interior ministry of the Al-Wefaq government denied what it described as rumors about the presence of Turkish soldiers within the territory and under its authority. It was said that these rumors came with the plan to mislead public opinion and distort the efforts of the Libyan armed forces to defend Tripoli and protect the democratic track. It also reassured foreign nationals including Turks working inside Libya that it would guarantee their safety.

In an official response to Haftar’s threats and the war waged on Saturday against Turkish assets on Libyan territories, during the G20 Leaders’ Summit held in Osaka, Japan, the Turkish President said that Turkey will take the “necessary measures” on this issue.

Following all these developments, 6 Turkish citizens were released on Monday 1 July, 2019. No further information has been provided.

*Written by Rahma Elfeky. 

Contrary to the U.S.-Israel-UAE axis, Turkey and some other global actors have sided with the Presidential Council of Libya and the Government of National Accord by staying true to the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) and the Rome Conference against the attack of warlord Khalifa Haftar on Tripoli. In his speech on April 27, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated, “There exists a government in Libya that derives its legitimacy from the people of Libya, and there is a dictator who is supported by certain Arab states. We will employ all of our capabilities to make sure that the ones who wish to turn Libya into another Syria will fail at their attempts.”

President Erdogan’s stance is a reflection of the Libya Political Agreement, which was created as a result of the conference held in Skhirat, Morocco in late 2015 and the global consensus that was achieved regarding the LPA following the Rome Conference. While Turkey continues to position itself within the limits of the legitimacy created according to the framework of this international consensus, some global actors such as the U.S. and France and certain regional actors such as the UAE and Egypt have changed their positions contrary to their promises made in 2015. The reason these actors have changed their positions is not that the accord is one that cannot be implemented. On the contrary, the implementation of this accord was blocked by Haftar, who is supported by the aforementioned axis. The power to undermine the LPA was given to Haftar by the UAE. Furthermore, Haftar was also protected by Israel and the Trump government and turned into a political actor by the UN. In other words, the Israel-UAE axis operating under the protection of the U.S. undermined the 2015 accord, and UN legitimized the events that occurred.

The Israel-UAE axis operating under the protection of the U.S. undermined the Libya Political Agreement, which was created upon a global consensus.

Turkey, within the framework of the accord that was reached in late 2015, made the decision to stay on the side of the legitimate actors in Libya. This is because Turkey sees a policy-making approach that is in cooperation with the people and a political system where reasonable decision-making processes are conducted as being essential to the stability of the region. Turkey recognizes that countries governed under the tutelage of military and bureaucratic elite will be rendered unstable and underdeveloped.

At a time where the United States is turning the world into a more chaotic place where only power has meaning through actively undermining international law, as can be seen from the examples of Egypt and Venezuela, Turkey is trying to minimize the damage caused by this chaos on the region. Due to being a country in the region, Turkey is directly affected by any instability and chaos occurring in the region. The reason Turkey is strongly supporting the legitimate actors in Libya to such a degree is its strategic reading centered around stability concerning the region and reasonable political vision.

Haftar’s entry to Tripoli and seizure of the administration via weapons will create an environment where extremist and radical groups will expand their area of influence in Libya and North Africa. It will bar Libya from having a rational political system that makes it possible for the country to benefit from global advancements for the next twenty years. And it will turn Libya into a country under dictatorship that has no say in its region. The administration of Libya by a civilian authority is the only alternative that will remove these possibilities. Currently, the civilian administration and the political accord are represented by the Presidential Council and the Government of National Accord.

The world is now silent for Libya and waiting for a warlord, Khalifa Haftar, to enter Tripoli.

And despite this, the world is now silent and waiting for a warlord to enter Tripoli. What makes Haftar’s attack on Tripoli even more tragic is that the attack began while the Secretary-General of the UN Antonio Guterres was visiting Haftar with the purpose of achieving a “political solution,” despite Haftar having no legitimacy in Libya according to all parameters and measures of legitimacy. Facing this latest attack of Haftar put the UN Secretary General into a difficult position and foiled all solution attempts of the UN regarding Libya. The UN Libya Mission fell into silence and failed to react in any way except a weak statement that came three weeks after the attack. The U.S. and Russia blocked the United Nations Security Council in favor of Haftar, France sided with Haftar, and as a result, the Government of National Accord suspended all security co-operations with France. While the international community is providing Haftar with diplomatic protection, the UAE is providing Haftar with all kinds of logistical support, and despite one month having passed Haftar is still waiting at the gates of Tripoli, before the eyes of the entire world.

The reason behind the silence of the world is the activities conducted by the Israel-UAE lobby under the protection of the Trump administration to shape the region. This axis had an active role in the coup process that occurred in Egypt in 2013, in the descent of Tunisia into political crisis following 2013, in the deep chaos that ensued in Yemen following 2015 and in the Syrian crisis becoming impossible to solve. The crisis in Libya today is a part of the strategy of this axis concerning the region. Haftar drew the attention of the Libyan public by attempting a coup in May 2014 and is an actor who has been propped up by this axis in Libya since early 2014. Haftar, who has absolutely no legitimacy according to the Libyan Political Agreement that was signed in late 2015, which is also supported by all international actors in the Rome Conference, conducted military operations in Benghazi in the years of 2016 and 2017, made illegal military gains in the south in 2018, and despite these was not criticized by actors supporting the LPA or the UN. On the contrary, by being declared a “de facto actor,” he was gradually given a political presence. Since this axis is not directly affected by instability, political dysfunctionality, the presence of authoritarian, totalitarian and dictatorial regimes and isolationism in the region, they ignore the negative consequences of their strategic efforts.

It was obvious that Haftar intended to march on Tripoli when he was conducting military operations in Fezzan in early 2019, but the institutions in Tripoli failed to take the necessary precautions due to the guarantees of certain international actors such as the U.S. and the UN Libya Mission to the effect that “Tripoli is our red line, and we will not allow Haftar to enter it.” But when Haftar was attacking Tripoli on April 4, he was visited by the UN General Secretary, and despite one month having passed after the attacks, the UN Libya Mission is yet to give a clear statement. Moreover, U.S. President Trump has spoken with Haftar on the phone and the U.S. used its vetoing power in the UNSC in favor of Haftar, meaning that despite the guarantees these actors have given, they positioned themselves in favor of Haftar. Since this situation undermines international law and the existing accord, it cannot be explained on rational grounds. Thus, we can say that the Israel-UAE axis under the protection of the U.S. is intending to deliver Libya to Haftar.

Haftar presented himself as the guarantor of security, but he has been the main actor behind instability.

Against this, the legitimate powers that exist in the east of the country under the leadership of the Presidential Council and the Government of National Accord, which were created within the framework of the LPA and recognized by the UN, have established a strong line of defense. This line of defense has rendered all of Haftar’s claims baseless. Because Haftar had claimed that he would enter Tripoli in 72 hours, but has yet to achieve any meaningful advancement despite one month having passed. Haftar presented himself as the strongest military figure in the country, but his military might have been revealed as inadequate and it was seen that the majority of the military followed the legitimate forces in Tripoli. While he claimed that the people of Tripoli and the West were waiting for him, especially in Tripoli and Misrata people declared him a “puppet of the UAE.” He presented himself as the guarantor of security, but was revealed as the main actor of the deepening crisis and instability in the region.

Haftar, who is a result of the Israel-UAE axis, continues to attack Tripoli, and the crisis in Libya is still ongoing. Three main scenarios can be predicted regarding the future of the crisis. In the first scenario, if the parties cannot advance and if a formula that includes Haftar is created after a negotiation process, Haftar will continue to play the role he has played in the last five years using the opportunities given to him by such a formula. In the second scenario, in preparation of a significant operation with the support of the U.S., France, Russia and the UAE, Haftar will enter Tripoli as a result of this operation, be applauded by the world and repeat what happened in Egypt in Libya. In the third scenario, the legitimate forces in Tripoli will repel Haftar from the West and begin to advance to the east. In this situation the UN, which has until now failed to comprehend that its mission in Libya is to ensure peace and stability, will become involved to “ensure peace and security in Libya” with the direction of the countries siding with Haftar, and will save Haftar from being completely defeated.

As United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited warlord General Khalifa Haftar in Benghazi within the scope of ‘political solution,’ his troops started to attack Tripoli, which caused all solution seeking attempts of the UN for Libya and the statements of international actors to be questioned.

Haftar, the leading actor of the Tripoli attack, by attempting a coup d’etat on the only elected parliament at the time of the General National Congress and the government, argued that a military council should govern Libya. When troops engaged with Haftar and their allies targeted legitimate political institutions, legitimate forces in Libya pushed these allies out of Tripoli and moved their general headquarters to the east of the country. After remaining silent to the attacks towards legitimate forces in Tripoli, the UN initiated negotiations in Skhirat, Morocco, with the aim of a “political solution” in Libya, when Haftar was in a risky situation.

However, Khalifa Haftar prevented the Libyan Political Agreement (LSA), which was the outcome of negotiations that took place in Morocco in 2015 by suppressing the House of Representatives in Tobruk not to ratify the LSA, thus making the Government of National Accord non-functional. The UN Support Mission in Libya and other international actors remained unresponsive towards the role of Haftar.

Between 2016-2017, he clashed with groups that opposed him under the name of ‘counter-terrorism’ and caused a humanitarian crisis by surrounding Derna. In 2018, Haftar attacked and took control of Jufra, which is located between Benghazi and Fezzan. In addition to this, he took control of the Oil Crescent and Temenhint Military Base located in Fezzan’s north-end region. Haftar also established military bases by carrying out operations in Fezzan at the very beginning of 2019.

Between 2016 and 2017, Haftar clashed with groups that opposed him under the name of ‘counter-terrorism’ and caused a humanitarian crisis by surrounding Derna.

Despite the many unlawful and destructive actions Khalifa Haftar took over the years from 2016-2019, and the impossibility of his recognition as an actor within the scope of Libyan laws, LSA and international law, he was recognized as a party to the negotiations by the UN and international actors.

The most tragic part of this crisis is that when the UN Secretary-General visited with the aim of a ‘political solution,’ the forces of a warlord who made a state government unfunctional, began to attack the UN-led government. The current UN situation cannot be explained alone with the UN’s inability of keeping up with recent developments in Libya, as there are also suggestions of a strong UAE lobby and French support for Haftar. The latest developments have revealed that the UN is not fit to act for a solution to the Libya crisis.

Indeed, even though the preparations of Haftar to march to Tripoli were evident, the guarantee that was given to policy makers in Tripoli by the UN and the U.S. made the government hold up to take measures. When the march to Tripoli occurred, the UN had proven that the measures it took and the guarantees it gave were of no significance at all.

No matter how unlawful and destructive Haftar’s takeover was between 2016-2019, he is still recognized as a party to the negotiations by the UN and other international actors.

The U.S. has called for parties to cease clashes and to sit at the negotiation table. Therefore, it has become obvious that Haftar’s attack on Tripoli would not cause any legal sanctions and even if he loses, his position at the table is guaranteed. More, France has indicated that Haftar will not face sanctions by calling ‘Sarraj and Haftar’ to stop the present conflict between the parties. This displays that France sees no distinction between the positions of the Chairman of the Presidential Council, Fayez al-Sarraj, and Khalifa Haftar.

The resolution prepared by the UK and supported by Germany did not pass the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) and in the meantime, the U.S. and Russia prevented the UNGA from playing a role in Libya.

In other words, with logistic support from the UAE and Egypt, and with political patronage from France, the UN’s silence and the UNGA’s unresponsiveness, Haftar has been attacking the legitimate government for over 16 days now.

Planning to be in Tripoli in 72 hours, Haftar has been repelled with strong resistance from the Government of National Accord (GNA). Having not only openly opposed Haftar, Prime Minister Sarraj has taken a strong and determined stance against the warlord. With the initiatives of the GNA’s Minister of Internal Affairs Fathi Bashagha, a mutual operation room has been established. At the same time, Bashagha ceased security collaboration with France, whom he has contemplated to being in cooperation with Haftar.

With logistic support from the UAE and Egypt, political patronage from France, and with the UN’s silence, Haftar has been attacking the legitimate government for over 16 days now.

By taking political, diplomatic and military actions, all legitimate actors in Tripoli proved that Haftar was wrong in his claims. Haftar claimed that he was the strongest military actor in Libya, who presumably had the support of all Libyans, in addition to his so-called undeniable position in counter-terrorism. However, with all the strength and support that he holds, Haftar has failed in making progress in the last 16 days. There have been well-attended anti-Haftar protests that have been organized in Tripoli. By pointing civilians and the legitimate government as targets under the name of ‘counter-terrorism,’ Haftar has proved that is not a dependable actor.

The past 16 days have shown that the world is expecting Haftar to enter Tripoli. This is supported by the UN’s silence and the UAE’s unlimited logistic support. If he gets the chance to enter Tripoli, some international actors will accept Haftar’s military government in a ‘de facto’ position. If he does not get the chance, he will protest his position as a de facto leader without whom a political solution cannot be reached.

If GNA forces push Haftar back and re-gains ground around his general headquarters, the UN will do whatever it has been unable to do in the past three weeks for the sake of stability and peace in Libya. It will take part in the process to protect Haftar.

The Libyan crisis is a project designed with the help of international actors, including actors from the region. The final solution is out of question unless sharing the region between regional and global actors becomes apparent.

Ghassan Salamé, the United Nations Special Representative in Libya, prepared and submitted a new roadmap to the Libyan House of Representatives (HoR) and the High Council of the State (HCS) to be put in action by December 2017. This roadmap, foreseeing amendments to the Libya Political Agreement (LPA), which was signed in Morocco in 2015, was approved by the House of Representatives based in Tobruk.

Why did the House of Representatives approve the UN’s roadmap?

By approving Salamé’s roadmap with a decision in November, the HoR made a game-changing move that undermines Khalifa Haftar in Libya. Approval of the roadmap indicates that the power balance in the eastern regions have shifted and further implies that these power balances may shift in Libya as a whole. Yet, what pushed the HoR, which has been supporting Haftar, to favor a political resolution?

Haftar has been increasing pressure over the eastern regions for the last two and a half years by expanding military precautions. He implemented a protocol in regions under his control which disregarded the HoR administrators as being “the highest political and military authority in Libya.” Maintaining his seat in center of the protocol, and by placing HoR President Aguila Saleh two seats away from himself, in which the HoR President was sat beside Haftar’s advisor, Haftar attempted to convey the message that he is the highest authority in Libya. Appointed by the Presidential Council, which is recognized as the official authority of Libya by the UN, the Ministry of the Interior Deputy Undersecretary Faraj Ghaim, faced several assassination attempts in Haftar-controlled eastern regions. Ghaim, also a member of a prominent tribe in the eastern region, announced that Haftar was behind these assassination attempts. It’s not difficult to assert that this caused tribes in the east to question Haftar. Moreover, Haftar’s sons have begun to become more prominent in the eastern region. Tribes supporting Haftar are thus losing hope that he will grant more power to them. In addition, reports submitted to the UN concerning Mahmud Warfalla, commander of Haftar’s private forces, stating that he has been committing “war crimes” and the revelation of mass graves in Abyar, indicates the possibility of Haftar being dubbed as a war criminal in the international arena. All of these developments forced actors within the House of Representatives to secure their own futures by leaning towards a political resolution.

Khalifa Haftar’s making as an actor

Although the House of Representatives has forced Khlifa Haftar into a no-escape-zone by accepting the roadmap proposed by the UN, they had initially been among the first ones who contributed to Haftar’s political leadership. By refusing to sign the LPA that emerged as a result of UN-led negotiations between late 2014 and late 2015, the HoR was undermining the Presidential Council created by the UN. Moreover, the HoR legitimized Khalifa Haftar, who had attempted a coup in May 2014 and allowed him to control the eastern regions of Libya through military means. Haftar employed the political legitimacy courtesy of the HoR in order to replace elected mayors with military ones, with the aim to deadlock the institution’s decision-making mechanisms. He was also welcomed at the highest level during his visits especially in Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Russia, creating the image that he was the leading actor in Libya. In fact, Haftar was announced as party to negotiations regarding Libya’s political future, which were held at France’s presidential palace through President Macron’s initiative to “bring conflicting sides together.” On the other hand, Haftar was able to expand his military influence through operations in Benghazi, Jufra in the southwest and Tamanhint in the south.

By refusing to approve the political resolution proposed by the UN up until now, thus preventing the political process, the HoR’s approval of Salamé’s roadmap is a break in its modus operandi. Haftar prevented the HoR from approving the proposed political resolution as it would eliminate the chaotic environment which transformed him into an actor in Libya. Regional and international actors supporting Haftar were presenting the approval of HoR presidency in Haftar-controlled Tobruk as a must. In this situation, as a political resolution could not be implemented, not only was Haftar acknowledged by neighboring and western countries, he also continued to realize military operations on the field. The approval of Salamé’s roadmap is crucial for Haftar, as it will give start to a political process that will thwart his strategy of “militarizing the state.” Similarly, it creates political risks for regional actors that have supported Haftar up until now.

Haftar: a dead-man for the UAE?

While Haftar was clearly a component of the regional project that is represented by the UAE, will the UAE, which has been working against the Arab revolution since 2012 and which has been supporting Haftar, renounce him? The UAE preferred to collaborate and cooperate with a military regime in Libya, as was also the case in Egypt. However, since 2014, Haftar has been unable to achieve what he was expected to by the UAE – he was unable to completely control Benghazi and thus the tribal alliance supporting him began to dissolve. Openly supporting the Presidential Council, the Awagir tribe has become the most overt manifestation of schism in the eastern region.

As was expressed, the schism between the House of Representatives and Haftar continues to deepen. While pressure is building on Haftar, the UAE seems to be seeking a two-way solution. Firstly, as was seen at the meeting in Egypt to which Misurata was also invited, the UAE is clearly seeking an ally in the western region through Egypt. Moreover, certain militia leaders in Tripoli visiting the UAE are frequently being discussed in the field. Meanwhile, armed groups belonging to Madkhali Salafism are gaining ground in the western regions as a result of Muhammad bin Salman’s purges in Saudi Arabia – which is also an ally of the UAE. There are also talks about Madkhali Salafis gaining more ground in Misurata. It should be noted that Madkhalism is a religious-ideological base of the UAE’s regional strategy. Considering this information, it could be asserted that the UAE is preparing for a scenario in which Haftar is eliminated as an actor. Secondly, considering that the former UN Special Representative in Libya, Bernardine Leon, was appointed as the President of the UAE Diplomacy Academy, it’s not difficult to predict that the UAE is in search of a new engagement with political and diplomatic actors along with the military. A political resolution means re-dealing cards for Khalifa Haftar and in such a scenario, Haftar will lose all traits that make him powerful and will be in a new political conjuncture.

Taking all of this into consideration, the following question should be asked: Is it possible to form a democratic state in Libya, in which power is transferred peacefully and the military is a subservient of the civilian administration, through the UN’s initiative? To answer this question, one should realize that the regional vision represented by the UAE is an order relying on introverted military-bureaucratic regimes and Madkhali Salafism, an archaic interpretation of Islam. In order to understand what has transpired throughout the last six years in other countries of the Arab Spring, regional activities of the UAE-led coalition should be analyzed. For this reason, it’s easy to assert that the aforementioned alliance will be dissatisfied with the Libyan revolution transforming into a political process. In this respect, Salamé has to be cautious in order not to have his roadmap suffer the same fate that the previous UN Special Representatives in Libya have attempted to implement and to be wary of those who may attempt to block suggested political processes.