If there is one single issue that has bedeviled Turkey’s relationship with the GCC and Saudi Arabia, it is Turkey’s past efforts to cultivate strong ties with Egypt under President Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood government. According to Riyadh, the Muslim Brotherhood could embolden Islamists and other opposition groups at home by its demands for democracy in the Middle East. They were also an enthusiastic ally to Iran, the arch enemy of Saudi Arabia. The Syrian Civil War was shaped and driven not only by a Sunni Saudi – Shia Iranian cold war but also by Saudi Arabia – Turkey confrontation on several issues such as Qatar crisis, the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, and Saudi Arabia’s development of stronger ties with the PKK affiliated YPG.

Riyadh’s silence in the face of July 15 failed coup attempt and rumors that their ally, United Arab Emirates (UAE) spent $3bn on the plot was a turning point in deteriorating relations between Turkey on the one hand and Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the other. Interestingly, the Turkish reaction was appeasing and low key as Erdoğan did not want to mar relations with Saudis at a time when 940 Saudi companies had invested $6 billion in Turkey. (Middle East Monitor, 2017) Only a few months before the coup attempt, King Salman paid a visit to Turkey during which Turkey bestowed its highest honor, the Order of the State, on King Salman as a rare mark of respect. Both sides had already established the strategic cooperation council in December 2015. Despite the rift over Egypt and over Riyadh’s neutrality in the face of YPG /PKK’s activities in northern Syria with the support of the U.S., both sides maintained their friendship at key moments. For example, “Turkey’s foreign minister attended an extraordinary meeting of Organization of Islamic Cooperation foreign ministers in Jeddah in January 2016 to discuss the mob attacks on Saudi missions in Iran following the execution of a dissident Saudi Shia cleric.” (Daily Sabah, 2017) Turkey opened İncirlik airbase in southern Turkey with Saudi Arabia’s warplanes participating in the battle against DAESH forces, led by the United States. (Ergan, 2017) Six months after the failed coup attempt, President Erdogan toured the Gulf beginning with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain but not stopping in the UAE. This tour aimed to further and strengthen ties, keeping open its own lines of communication with Saudi Arabia, while preventing the escalation of tension with Egypt and UAE.

However, with the outburst of the Qatar crisis in 2017, this policy of turning a blind eye to Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s alleged support of the failed coup attempt became untenable as Turkey was openly targeted by the Saudi-led coalition during the crisis.

In addition, it became evident that Saudi Arabia saw the YPG as an efficient actor to stop Turkey’s military advance to the north of Syria and supported the PKK affiliated group more than ever as evidence of its pro-US stance towards the region. For example, only five days after the Qatar crisis erupted, a pro-government newspaper in Turkey, reported that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE held a meeting with the YPG. Saudi Gulf Affairs Minister Thamer al-Sabhan also visited YPG controlled Raqqa with Brett McGurk, the then U.S. special envoy for the coalition to defeat ISIS. Most important of all, Saudi Arabia pledged $100 million for stabilization projects in the territories formerly held by ISIS but now under YPG control and made the payment in October 2018. (Başkan, 2019). There was more in the months that followed as well. When Turkey’s military brought an end to the YPG’s control of Afrin in March 2018, Saudi Arabia’s de-facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), labeled Turkey, Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood as a “triangle of evil. This openly showed that Turkey’s gain appeared to be Saudi Arabia’s loss in the region and “highlighted how Ankara and Riyadh’s agendas in Syria are becoming increasingly incompatible with each other.” (Cafiero, 2018)

This was all the more disturbing since Islam and even sectarian belonging was no longer the major common denominator between Turkey and its previous Sunni Gulf allies; the Saudis and Emiratis. On the contrary, the Jerusalem factor in the deterioration of relations was noteworthy as it became evident with the low-profile response by the Saudi-led axis of the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain to the US’s recognition of Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. Erdogan on the other hand stated that “Jerusalem is a red line for Muslims”, and that such a move would be in violation of international law. The Saudi-led axis avoided sending high ranking delegations to the emergency Jerusalem summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation that was called upon by Erdogan. The Bahraini foreign minister, described the Jerusalem issue as a side issue and said: “It’s not helpful to pick a fight with the US over side issues while we together fight the clear and present danger of the theo-fascist Islamic republic,” (Aljazeera, 2017) When looking closely, Saudi and Emirati official circles aimed to restrict Erdogan and Turkey’s regional influence by building closer ties with Turkey’s foes,  acting in accordance with the old saying that; the  enemy of my enemy is my friend”.

Beyond these regional developments, there are other issues that concerned Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. The most important of these is the increasing demand for democracy and transparency of the Islamist circles including the Muslim Brotherhood and its leader Morsi, Turkey’s president Erdoğan, some intellectuals such as the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Such demands have been perceived by MbS and the Emirati leader, Shaykh Khalifa bin Zayed as threatening the existing status quo and the future of their regimes. From the outset, the model of democracy practiced in Turkey, Ankara’s support of Morsi in Egypt and pro-Ikhwan policy in Syria aroused the wrath of the Saudis for two reasons. Firstly, Ankara’s insistence on Islamic democracy was perceived to be part of hidden agenda by Turkey who were perceived to have neo-Ottoman aspirations from the Saudi perspective. Secondly, Turkey’s policies tilted towards the Muslim Brotherhood whereas Saudi Arabia saw the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization. This makes it evident that the two Sunni countries differ a lot from each other in their assessments of the dangers at hand. For example, while Saudi Arabia issued a decision banning symbols such as the four-finger Rabia al-Adawiya sign, used to signal support for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, this was used by the Turkish president Erdoğan at public events as a symbol of supporting oppressed Muslims. As al-Buluwi stressed, “the current ‘cold war’ in the Middle East has taken two forms. It involves the Shiite-Sunni war being fought in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and the Gulf, as well as a parallel Sunni-Sunni conflict involving Turkey, Saudi Arabia and political Islamic forces to control and dominate the politics of Sunni Islam.” (Al-Buluwi, 2014)

Jamal Khashoggi’s murder made the Sunni-Sunni confrontation more evident than ever and caused Riyadh to be blamed by Muslim Middle East for betrayal and “treachery” as they became more and more pro-US and acted in accordance with Israeli interests. (The Guardian, 2019) For example, “in May 2018, Saudi Arabia ended a 70-year-old ban and allowed Air India to use Saudi airspace in New Delhi-Tel Aviv flights. In April 2018, MbS remarked that Israelis and Palestinians have the right to found their own states, giving the signals of recognizing Israel for the first time in the history of Saudi Arabia.” (Rakipoğlu, 2019).

Turkey’s insistence that Riyadh provide accountability and transparency over Jamal Khashoggi’s murder culminated in the UN’s report saying that “Mohammed bin Salman should be investigated over journalist’s murder.”  Agnes Callamard, the UN’s special rapporteur, concluded independently that the crown prince ordered Khashoggi’s murder. This led to frustration in Saudi Arabia over Ankara. (The Guardian, 2019) According to an intelligence report written by the Emirates Policy Centre, a think tank with close links to the Emirati government and security services, a Saudi strategy was prepared to punish Turkey over its stance on the Khashoggi case. (Hearst&Soylu, 2019)

In parallel with these developments, Saudi Arabia launched a social media campaign boycotting all Turkish products and calling for citizens not to travel to Turkey. Saudi Arabian authorities detained trucks and containers carrying Turkish goods into the kingdom which were described by many as a “secret embargo.” Ajlan al-Ajlan, chairman of the Riyadh Chamber of Commerce and Industry, called for an import boycott on Twitter and said: “As the Turkish leadership and Erdogan continue their hostility and target the kingdom’s leadership, we call more than ever before to boycott them… in all areas – imports, labour and dealings with Turkish companies.” (Soylu, 2019) In addition, the Saudi embassy in Ankara issued a warning to travelers that passport theft and petty crime was increasing in Turkey. This led to a thirty percent decrease in number of visitors from Saudi Arabia to Turkey in the first five months of 2019. Al Riyadh daily which is known for its pro-government stance, hared a video saying that “there are many alternatives to Turkey and they are cheaper.” As a response to the video, hundreds of Arabic-speaking Twitter users shared their own vacation videos from Turkey to show that Saudis are welcomed in the country. (Gürbüz, 2019) When looking retrospectively, the pan-Arab media based in Dubai including Sky News Arabic and Al Arabiya also had reported that the coup against Erdogan had been successful.” (Hearst, 2016)

In sum three points should be stressed once again: anxieties regarding Turkey’s military presence in the north of Syria, its collaboration with Russia and Iran throughout the Astana process and its role of promoting democracy so as to threaten the status quo in the Gulf are only several reasons for the deteriorating relations between Turkey and the GCC, specifically Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain. The real reason lying behind the current problematic relationship is closely linked with the lack of capability of the GCC states to act independently in solving the crises in the region and being under the yoke of Israel and the United States. Finally, as Turkey becomes more attractive for the masses living in the Gulf as well as Arab states, the efforts of pro-government media to push anti Turkish sentiment in the GCC will remain fruitless as a poll conducted by American polling firm Pew Research Center proved that Turkey was the country with the increase in influence among the Middle East’s population.

The SETA Foundation held a panel today in order to discuss the possible effect that the Jamal Khashoggi can have on the politics of the Middle East.

Moderated by Kemal Inat, Berdal Aral, Ferhat Unlu and Huseyin Alptekin were the three panellists.

Before starting the panel, Kemal Inat stated that there were three aspects to the Jamal Khashoggi case. A humanitarian aspect, regional and international politics aspect, and finally an aspect regarding Saudi Arabia’s domestic politics.

In terms of the geopolitical consequences, Inat underlined how the fact that the event took place in Istanbul could have the potential to reconstruct foreign policy with countries close to Turkey. Second, the fact that Jamal Khashoggi was a columnist for the Washington Post automatically puts the U.S. in the frame, and thus event has given the opposition the opportunity to utilize Trump’s closeness with the Saudi regime in the upcoming mid-term elections. Finally, the fact that Saudi Arabia is the only prominent regime in the region that is supporting Israel, also brings a question as to whether this event will have the consequence of changing Israel’s place in the geopolitical spectrum.

Berdal Aral from Istanbul Medeniyet University approached the issue from a international and human rights law perspective.

He first began by informing the audience of diplomatic immunity, as this was an issue that has been laid on the table after the Saudi consulate general refused to allow Turkish authorities to search the consulate.

While he highlighted the immunity provided to diplomats, Aral highlighted that these diplomats, are by international law, “required to respect the rule of law in the hosting country and are forbidden from using the diplomatic missions for events apart from national policy.”

“The murder of Jamal Khashoggi is an extraordinary situation as it was committed in the consulate. It’s difficult to find such examples in history.”

This event also damaged Turkey. It was a “disrespect to its national sovereignty.”

“There is a violation of international law.”

Berdal Aral also emphasized how Saudi Arabia has tried to extend its use of force to a different country, which is why this event, the way it took place, the actors involved, and the consequences that will be drawn from it, “are nothing like the events we’ve seen before.”

Referring to Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s call for the people involved in the murder to be held to account in Istanbul, Ardal explained that this was in Turkey’s right to request to do so. However, he also reminded the audience that not only will Saudi Arabia resist, but they also have to uplift the diplomatic immunity of the consulate workers in order for a judicial review to begin.

Echoing statements made by Berdal Aral, Ferhat Unlu, a journalist from Sabah, also highlighted how the Jamal Khashoggi case was different from previous ones.

“There have been many murders since the Cold War committed by intelligence services. However, this one is very different.”

“The Saudi officials didn’t even feel the need to provide fake ID to the people that flew here [to Istanbul] to commit the murder.”

Although there is no concrete evidence that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the murder, Unlu stated how it’s extraordinary for people that can be described as the Prince’s “right-wing men” to commit such a crime without having their identities covered.

It’s clear that all members of the hit squad are close allies of MbS, and therefore how can we expect for this crime to be committed without the prior knowledge of the Saudi regime?

Observing the issue from an intelligence perspective, Unlu also underlined that the Director of the CIA, Gina Haspel, came to Turkey in order to see what evidence the Turkish authorities have. He also added that there are some background reports that state Haspel listened to the recording of the murder.

Finally touching upon the future of Saudi Arabia-US relations, Unlu stated how “Although Trump will not cancel arms trade deals, he has to accept that this was an infringement on human rights and therefore, we can expect changes in relations between the two countries.”

Huseyin Alptekin, a Professor of International Relations at Istanbul Sehir University tried to answer the following questions: “Why Turkey? Why now? Why Khashoggi? Why Saudi Arabia?”

In regards to the “why Turkey?” question, Alptekin highlighted that although relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia were not in crisis mode, they had deteriorated in the previous years due to certain disagreements between the two countries.

“The Middle East is not a number one priority for the U.S. anymore,” stated Alptekin, and therefore, Mohammed bin Salman and Saudi Arabia tried to take advantage of this space in regional politics.

Alptekin described MbS as someone “that needs to prove himself.” “Those before him didn’t have to prove themselves, because they already had this. However, the way MbS came to power was through some kind of coup. Let’s remember the Ritz Carlton event.”

Thus, Alptekin described MbS as having “power” but no “legitimacy.”

In general however, Alptekin observed the Jamal Khashoggi case as a “critical juncture.”

He stated that “although critical junctures do not tell us what happen next, they tell us that anything can happen.”

In this regard, Turkey’s stance on the Khashoggi case is an example of Ankara trying to expand its boundaries of what can happen. The Turkish government could have made deals with the Saudi and U.S. governments behind closed doors. However, it has displayed a consistent tactic and has been able to place this issue as number one on the international agenda.

Alptekin finished his words by stating that “Saudi Arabia will not be able to commit such an operation like this in Turkey again.”

Jamal Khashoggi has been missing since October 2, when he was last seen entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

After various information was released to the press, it is now widely accepted that the Saudi journalist was brutally murdered in the General Consul.

While the investigation has not yet been concluded, Turkish officials are expected to share their findings within the next couple of days.

Khashoggi was a writer for The Washington Post, and his final opinion was published yesterday.

In his final opinion piece, the Saudi journalist’s stance against the Saudi establishment spoke for itself. The opinion title reads: “What the Arab world needs most is free expression.”

In his final piece, Khashoggi drew attention to how only a couple of countries in the Arab world are considered to be “free.” These are Tunisia, Jordan, Morocco and Kuwait.

Highlighting that the spring of 2011 – better known as the Arab Spring – was a hope for journalists, academics, and the general population, as they were “brimming with expectations of a bright and free Arab society,” the journalist also highlights how “these expectations were quickly shattered” and how these societies “either fell back to the old status quo or faced even harsher conditions than before.”

Providing examples of how the media have been silenced in Egypt, Khashoggi states that these kind of actions “no longer carry the consequence of a backlash from the international community. Instead, these actions may trigger condemnation quickly followed by silence.”

As a result Khashoggi continues, “Arab governments have been given free rein to continue silencing the media at an increasing rate.”

The lack of backlash from the international community can, unfortunately, be seen in the disappearance of Khashoggi himself. Although Mike Pompeo visited both Saudi Arabia and then Turkey, the U.S. government have not been so loud in calling the Saudi establishment to account.

The Turkish authorities were able to enter the residence of the General Consul yesterday, and while the results of this search have not yet been shared with the press, Turkey’s Justice Minister Abdulhamit Gul told reporters today that the results of the investigation will be shared with the public in a couple of days.

Recent sources that have been secretly released to the press confirm the fact that the Saudi journalist was killed in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul – in the room of the General Consul.

According to reports that have been leaked to the press, Khashoggi was wearing an Apple Watch on his visit and this recorded the events that occurred. A recording that was then automatically uploaded on his iCloud revealed that the journalist was killed – in fact, chopped into pieces while still alive in a seven-minute execution session.

A group of men had flown into Turkey a day before Khashoggi’s entrance, and left Istanbul on the day of the event (after Khashoggi’s disappearance). According to a source that spoke to the Middle East Eye, “There was no attempt to interrogate him. They had come to kill him.”

His murderers are reported to have listened to music on their headphones while dismembering his body.

The Saudi General Consul in Istanbul fled the country yesterday (16 October) after the UN Human Rights chief called for his immunity to be stripped in order to be able to question him within the current investigation being carried on.

Upon the disappearance of Khashoggi and increasing international pressure, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Saudi Arabia and then Turkey. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, head of the National Intelligence Service Hakan Fidan, Presidential Spokesman Ibrahim Kalin and the U.S. Special Representative for Syria James Jeffrey attended the meeting between Pompeo and President Erdogan.

While Pompeo confirmed that the U.S. will support Turkey in its investigation, other items such as the Syrian Civil War, the PKK/YPG and the Manbij deal were also on the agenda.

Turkey will enter Saudi Consul’s residence

Within the scope of the investigation in regards to Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance, the Turkish authorities will enter the Saudi Consul’s residence in Istanbul.

While the authorities intended to enter the residence yesterday, M. Cavusoglu told reporters tht they couldn’t as “the Saudis claimed that his [consul’s] family were inside.”

The question as to where the remains of Jamal Khashoggi are still remains unanswered. The Saudi regime have insisted that they do not know the answer to this. However, the international community are pretty much aware that the Saudi diplomats in Istanbul would have not been able to pursue such an act without the knowledge of Riyadh.

The case of Jamal Khashoggi has been rocking the international agenda since his disappearance on October 2.

After the joint letter from the U.K, France, and Germany, urging Saudi Arabia to provide a sufficient explanation with evidence, the United Nations Human Rights chief Michelle Bachelet called for the lifting of the immunity of consulate workers in the Saudi Consul General in Istanbul.

In a statement, Michelle Bachelet said, “In view of the seriousness of the situation surrounding the disappearance of Mr. Khashoggi, I believe the inviolability of immunity of the relevant premises and officials bestowed by treaties such as the 1993 Vienna Convention on Consular Relations should be waived immediately.”

Underlining that both forced disappearances and extra-judicial killings are serious crimes under international law, Bachelet added, “immunity should not be used to impede investigations into what happened and who is responsible.”

Echoing the statements made by European countries and the wider international community, Bachelet urged for the Saudi authorities to reveal what happened to Khashoggi after the entered the consulate.

Following this statement made by the UN human rights chief, Saudi Arabia’s Consul General in Istanbul – Mohammad al-Otaibi – left Turkey on October 16, amid the ongoing investigation on the missing journalist.

The disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul has become an issue of global reach. It was initially thought that the incident would become a source of tension between Saudi Arabia and Turkey. However, with the involvement of the U.S. administration, the issue has actually become source of discontent between Riyadh and Washington. In addition to calls made from Turkey and the international community, calls from Europe and the U.S. have exerted increasing pressure on Saudi Arabia. The main reason for this is the existence of strong accusations that the Riyadh administration may have been responsible for the disappearance of Khashoggi.

Jamal Khashoggi was one of the leading intellectual figures of Saudi Arabia. This is one of the main reasons why the issue has attracted global attention. Although he pursued a critical stance, Khashoggi has always been in close contact with government circles within the Saudi regime. He was considered as one of the “living memories” of the Saudi state. He served as an advisor to Turki Al-Faisal, who served as the head of Saudi Arabia’s intelligence service for many years.

By taking measures through the U.S. and Turkey, Saudi Arabia is trying to resolve the issue with minimum damage to its current position. Turkey is directly involved within the Khashoggi case, as the event took place in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. So, Turkey has also felt pressure as a result of Khashoggi’s disappearance. Although the event took place in a diplomatic mission, it has also challenged Turkey’s regional and global image as a safe haven for dissent throughout the Arab world. In recent years Istanbul has increasingly become a safe place for opposition figures from oppressive regimes of the Middle East, particularly from Syria and Egypt.

Despite the seriousness of the event, Ankara has not yet taken a direct position against Saudi Arabia. The importance of good relations and strategic cooperation in different areas between the two countries has forced both governments to take a cautious stance against each other with regards to the Khashoggi incident. Ankara wants to avoid confrontation with Riyadh and has included the international community in the process of determining what has happened to the Saudi journalist. By doing so, Ankara has shared the burden of its responsibility with the international community. In addition to Turkey’s efforts, Saudi Arabia has also acted in a way not to damage relations with Turkey.

The U.S. is another actor within the Jamal Khashoggi case, for two particular reasons. First, Khashoggi was a resident columnist for one of the leading U.S. newspapers, the Washington Post. He was living in the U.S. with a residence permit from the authorities. Khashoggi was also one of the most respected Arab journalists in the U.S. and Europe, with a solid network in the press and academia. Therefore, his disappearance has drawn a huge reaction from American and European intellectual circles. The U.S. administration has not been able to remain silent in the face of the call for clarification of the issue.

Another dynamic that forced the U.S. administration to pay close attention to the Khashoggi case was the close relationship between the Trump administration and the regime in Riyadh. The Trump administration has continued to support the Saudi regime despite its role in the war in Yemen and the embargo on Qatar. Trump has also placed Saudi Arabia at the center of his Middle East strategy. The strong claims that the Saudi regime may have a role in the Khashoggi incident left the Trump administration in a difficult position. Various reactions from the U.S. government, media, and business circles created tension between Washington and Riyadh.

It can be said that the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi is a landmark event that may have the potential to reset Saudi Arabia’s relationship with regional and international actors. The international community will continue to pressure Riyadh to resolve the issue and to punish those who are responsible. The result of the investigations will determine the positions of regional and global actors towards Saudi Arabia.

The international agenda has recently been occupied with the mystery disappearance of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Khashoggi was last heard from on October 2, as after he entered the Saudi Arabia consulate in Istanbul, he did not leave.

While the Turkish government has begun an official investigation on the case, increasing pressure on Saudi Arabia has piled up from the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany.

On Sunday 14 October, Britain, France and Germany issued a joint statement warning Saudi Arabia that they were treating the case of the missing journalist with “utmost seriousness.”

The foreign ministers of the three European Union countries demanded an investigation into Khashoggi’s disappearance, and called for a “detailed response” from the Saudi kingdom.

“There needs to be credible investigation to establish the truth about what happened, and – if relevant – to identify those bearing responsibility for the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi, and ensure that they are held to account,” the statement read.

“We encourage joint Saudi-Turkish efforts in that regard, and expect the Saudi government to provide a complete and detailed response. We have conveyed this message directly to the Saudi authorities.”

The statement came after Saudi Arabia vowed to retaliate to possible economic sanctions taken by other countries after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of “severe punishment” over the disappearance of Khashoggi.

US-Saudi spat?

During an interview made yesterday, U.S. President Trump pledged “severe punishment” if the U.S. concludes that Saudi agents killed Khashoggi, a U.S. resident, and said that the incident is currently being investigated.

The President also told reporters that there would be “very powerful” repercussions if Saudi Arabia is found to be responsible for Khashoggi’s disappearance.

The past week in Turkey’s foreign affairs agenda was quite busy. The disappearance of Washington Post opinion columnist Jamal Khashoggi topped this. After entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, the Saudi journalist mysteriously disappeared. The Turkish authorities showed the footage of his entrance to the consulate but he simply did not come out, at least, in the way he was expected to. The Saudi side claims that Khashoggi left the consular building but they cannot provide evidence because their cameras were not recording that day according to their statement.

The Turkish side on the other hand shows the footage of Khashoggi’s entry as well as a well documented story of a 15-man team of Saudi officers (including special forces and intelligence officers) who flew in Istanbul with two private jets and left hours after, allegedly, after “handling” the Khashoggi case. As the Saudi squad left the consular building, Khashoggi’s fiancée was still waiting for him outside the consulate.

The second matter with respect to Turkey’s foreign affairs agenda came a week after Khashoggi’s disappearance. Andrew Brunson, an American pastor living in Turkey and on trial for alleged espionage with links to the Gulenist terror network, was released by the Turkish court on Friday, 12 October. His arrest for almost 2 years and following house arrest for the following 2 months was a major issue deepening the crisis between Turkey and the U.S. (Here is an earlier assessment of the matter).

The third major event with regard to Turkey’s foreign affairs agenda came out from President Erdogan’s statements regarding a possible incursion into the Northern Syrian city of Manbij. During his speech in Isparta on Friday, 12 October, Erdogan touched upon the recent news on the trenches being dug by the PYD/SDF in Manbij against a possible Turkish offensive. Erdogan gave a clear message in his speech and said that “we will enter there too.”

While an offensive does not seem imminent, it is well-known that Erdogan is pretty straightforward when it comes to Turkish military incursions. We saw similar remarks by Erdogan before Turkey’s offensives in Jarablus and Afrin and also before Turkey’s establishment of observatory posts in Idlib, all in Syria. Turkey’s ground incursion into the PKK-controlled territories in Iraq also came after similar remarks by Erdogan. In all these cases, the President gave the orders after making his warnings in public. Hence, it is natural to question whether we will see new developments in Manbij.

Looking at the three events of the past week, one can see the parameters are about to change in the Saudi Arabia-Syria-U.S. triangle of Turkish foreign politics. The Saudi case is likely to make the already tense relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia even tenser. Turkey has leaked strong evidence against the Saudis on Khashoggi’s disappearance but for now is keeping itself back from a more aggressive strategy against the Saudis. Perhaps the country wants to keep escalation under control and avoids escalating the tension to a no-turn level given that the economic relations with the Saudis still matter.

Or, Turkey may be willing to play the Khashoggi case against the Saudis to the fullest degree but does not rush for it to make the full impact at the right moment. Further, Turkey’s evidences have already hurt the Saudis in a number of ways. A number of U.S. senators have already discussed invoking the Global Magnitsky Act on Saudi Arabia. Further, a long list of global media sponsors have already dropped out of the Saudi conference, The Future Investment Initiative (popularly marketed as Davos in desert). While these are the first tangible effects of the Khashoggi case, the biggest strike was about the well-funded and well-crafted “reformist leader Muhammad Bin Salman” propaganda.

In the eyes of many in the Middle East, Europe, or North America, Saudi Arabia is now nothing more than a brutal tribe-state. It is too hard for Muhammad Bin Salman to fix this damage to his PR campaign. That being said, a real blow can only become possible if Trump turns his back to Bin Salman, which is not likely at the moment.

While Turkey seems to be committed to pressure Saudi Arabia on the unfortunate disappearance and probable murder of Khashoggi, it also has other plans in its Middle East strategy. It seems like Turkey will keep Saudi off the loop in its affairs with the U.S. with regard to Syria. Given the Saudi vulnerability vis-à-vis Turkey (after all, they are accused of murdering a journalist in Turkey in the most brutal, and silly way), Saudis may also not risk a further escalation with Turkey on the question of Syria.

As Turkey released Brunson and hopes a significant improvement in its relations with the U.S. (despite all the other problems between the two), it can also be more demanding with respect to the future of Manbij. While the power game in Syria continues in its fullest sensitivity, the fates of individuals from the tragedy of Khashoggi to the release of Brunson will have reflections in Turkey’s complex and interdependent foreign affairs calculations.