On 2 September, 2019 the pro-Kurdish media outlet Kurdistan 24 stationed in the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) released a public statement explaining that while they have previously worked in northeastern Syria with the permission of the local YPG administration, they were recently banned from doing so. Despite an approximately one month long negotiation, Kurdistan 24 failed to convince the YPG administration to remove the ban. Kurdistan 24’s ability to report from YPG-held areas ended when Kurdistan24 TV aired a talk show in which Hülya Oran (alias Besê Hozat), a leading PKK figure and KCK (PKK’s administrative umbrella) co-chair, was allegedly insulted. This decision by the YPG not only confirms its status as the Syrian branch of the PKK, but also highlights their hypocrisy as self-proclaimed defenders of freedom and of the Kurdish cause. This step is also noteworthy since it comes after growing tensions between the KRG in Iraq and the PKK.

The decision of the YPG to ban Kurdistan 24 shows again that the YPG and the PKK terrorist organization are inseparable organizations. Reports that the YPG’s decision making bodies are dominated by PKK veterans from the Qandil Mountains appear to be corroborated. The ban of the Kurdish media outlet by the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq is not surprising, as the head of the US supported Syrian Democratic Forces, Ferhat Abdi Sahin (alias Mazloum Kobane in the SDF, and Sahin Cilo in the PKK), was close friends with Hülya Oran and were active in the Qandil Mountains together. Furthermore, most of the SDF officials answered to orders from Oran in northern Iraq and Turkey, before they went to Syria to operate as partners of the US.

It is interesting that the YPG’s relative openness to media and press ended when a leading PKK figure was criticized. The media has been as an essential part the YPG’s strategy of winning hearts and minds in the west by portraying themselves as defenders of human rights, and especially women’s rights. For this reason, many foreign journalists can enter YPG-held areas and report about the situation on the ground. By doing this, the YPG won many sympathizers among the western journalists and effectively disguised its nature as a branch of the internationally recognized terror organization, namely the PKK. Remembering the critical coverage of some journalists of the YPG, one wonders if it is the case that the YPG doesn’t allow criticism of senior figures of the PKK only, or if the YPG has different standards for Kurdish and western media outlets.

Lastly, this move by the YPG can also be seen as an attempt to retaliate in the name of the PKK against the KRG in northern Iraq. Since the launch of the Operation Claw by Turkey, the PKK has lost strategic hills in the Hakurk region, and the PKK has accused the KRG of collaboration with Ankara. Attempts by the PKK to provoke the local population against the Turkish Armed Forces were undermined by Prime Minister Nacirvan Barzani who blamed the PKK for an attack on a Turkish base and demanded the PKK withdraw from northern Iraq, so that Turkey could stop its operations against them. The step to ban Kurdistan 24 overlaps with a time in which the Iraqi Kurds actively supported Ankara’s fight against the PKK, and might be a way of retaliation.

Following the independence referendum in Northern Iraq, the KRG had been subject to political and economic sanctions from regional and international actors.

Amid the military operation conducted by the central Baghdad administration in Kirkuk, the KRG administration proposed on Wednesday to freeze its illegal referendum in an attempt to halt the operations.

A statement published by the KRG read: “As Iraq and Kurdistan are faced with grave and dangerous circumstances, we are all obliged to act responsibly in order to prevent further violence and clashes between Iraqi and Peshmerga forces.”

Highlighting the clashes between the Iraqi and Peshmerga forces that erupted on October 16, 2017 the KRG stated: “Clashes have caused damage to both sides and could lead to a continuous bloodshed, inflicting pain and social unrest among different components of Iraqi society.”

“Certainly, continued fighting does not lead any side to victory, but it will drive the country towards disarray and chaos, affecting all aspects of life.”

In order to fulfill “our responsibilities and obligations towards the people of Kurdistan and Iraq,” the KRG proposed an immediate ceasefire and halt of all military operations, freezing the referendum results and starting an open dialogue with the Iraqi government on the basis of the Constitution.

Debates continue following the Kurdish independence referendum initiated by the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq.

On September 25 residents in KRG-controlled areas were asked whether they wanted to separate from Iraq. While results turned to be 93% in favor, the referendum lacks legitimacy due to the lack of international support. More, the referendum is a violation of the Iraqi Constitution.

While sanctions have been imposed on KRG by regional and international actors including Turkey, Iran and the central Iraqi administration, Israel is the only country that has openly welcomed the referendum.

Support from the Israeli government and the Barzani regime’s warmest welcome drew attention. In relation to this, veteran Kurdish politician and former leader of the Kurdistan Socialist Party, Mahmoud Othman, spoke to the Anadolu Agency.

In respect to the Israeli support for the referendum, Othman claimed that “nothing good would come” from Israeli support to the Kurdish cause, emphasizing that Israel simply wanted to “exploit” the Kurdish people.

While there has been literature published regarding the contacts and relations between Israel and the northern Iraqi Kurds, highlighting how Israel maintained Iraqi Kurds as a proxy against Iran, Othman stated that contacts between Israel and Iraqi Kurds first took place in the early 1970s.

Warning that “If Israel supports us, all the Arab states will stand against us,” Othman insisted that “We have nothing to gain [from Israeli support]. We don’t even share any borders with Israel.”

“For this reason,” he added, “I have urged Kurdish officials not to cooperate with Israel.”

Othman also slammed the appearance of Israeli flags during the celebrations that took place after the referendum results had been announced.

Describing the waving of Israeli flags during the rallies as a “mistake,” Othman underlined that “Now some countries of the region are claiming that we [i.e. the KRG] will be a second Israel.”

Baghdad to appropriate northern Iraq’s mobile phone networks

Following the referendum, the central Iraqi administration has retaliated within its own sovereignty, claiming that the referendum is illegitimate as it is a violation of the Constitution.

While the central government has refused to recognize the result and has emphasized that it will not be able to negotiate with the KRG unless they cancel the result, a statement released by the Prime Minister’s office announced plans to assume control of all mobile phone networks in northern Iraq’s Kurdish region.

The statement released by the office of PM Haidar al-Abadi read: “Iraq’s Council of Ministers has decided that all mobile phone networks [in the Kurdish region] should be brought under the control of the federal government.”

In addition to the appropriation of northern Iraq’s mobile phone networks, on Monday Iraq’s Council of Ministers also noted that legal procedures had been taken against all KRG employees involved in holding last month’s illegal poll.

Following the independence referendum that took place on September 25 in KRG-held areas, relations between the Erbil and Baghdad administrations have reached their ever-lowest point.

While receiving no international support, except from Israel, according to the results announced by the KRG, almost 93 percent of registered voters cast ballots in favor of independence.

Following the referendum many diplomatic, economic and military measures have been taken by Baghdad, Ankara and Tehran.

Earlier this week Iraq’s Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi warned the KRG against mobilizing their armed Peshmerga forces in the disputed northern province of Kirkuk.

Al-Abadi said: “I warn of the actions of the region’s military mobilization in Kirkuk, it is dangerous… The imposition of a status quo by force over the disputed areas is unacceptable.”

More, Al-Abadi called for a joint administration between the Iraqi government and the KRG over the disputed areas in Kirkuk under the leadership of the federal government in Baghdad, without giving further details on how this would work.

In addition to Al-Abadi’s comments and suggestions, on Tuesday the Iraqi Parliament adopted a bill that would force Baghdad to halt all financial transactions with the KRG.

The bill – which is now legally binding – was submitted by the Parliament’s financial committee.

While a large number of Iraqi-Kurdish lawmakers failed to attend the parliamentary session, the legislation was approved by a majority of assembly members.

Another decision the Parliament made concerns the Iraqi Kurdish MPs that voted in the illegitimate referendum.

During a press conference, Parliamentary Speaker Salim al-Jabouri requested the assembly’s legal committee to reveal the names of all Iraqi Kurdish MPs who cast ballots in the referendum.

According to al-Jabouri, lawmakers who took part in the illegitimate referendum will be referred to Iraq’s Federal Court, which will initiate legal proceedings against them if they were found to have violated Iraq’s constitution by casting ballots.

Al-Jabouri stated that “The Iraqi state is undergoing the greatest crisis in its history, which threatens the country’s unity and social fabric. Parliament is obliged to adhere to the Constitution and decisions issued [on the referendum].”

In reference to the crisis that is occurring in Iraq and emphasizing the importance of Iraq’s territorial integrity, Jordan’s King Abdullah II reaffirmed his country’s support for Iraq’s security, stability, territorial integrity and the cohesion of its people.

According to a statement issued by Jordan’s Royal Court, during a phone call with Haider Al-Abadi Abdullah stressed Jordan’s full support for the Iraqi government’s efforts in counterterrorism and launching a political process aimed at including all components of the Iraqi people, with a view to contributing to a secure, stable and unified Iraq.

Not too late for KRG to normalize relations

In echoing comments made by the governments of Turkey, Iran, U.S., and many western Europe states, Turkish opposition MHP leader Devlet Bahceli emphasized the importance of the territorial integrity of Iraq for the security of the wider region.

Claiming that the territorial integrity of Iraq is “indispensable for Turkey,” Bahceli called for the KRG President to give up his “ambition for independence.”

Post-referendum Iraq also maintained its place on the agenda of the President, as Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that “Any incident taking place in Syria and Iraq is not independent from us, they are linked directly to our domestic affairs.”

Insisting that the referendum has done nothing but harmed KRG relations with the region and increased the likelihood of safe-zones for terrorist organizations including the PKK, YPG and Daesh, Erdogan emphasized that “The referendum crisis in northern Iraq is a new attempt to strike he heart of our region with a dagger.”

He once again criticized the KRG administration and stated that “we hope the northern Iraq administration comes to its senses soon.”

Calls for negotiations between Baghdad and Erbil have been raised from different countries across the region, and within this concern, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu claimed that it is “not too late” for the KRG to “step back.”

Re-instating that the referendum was “neither democratic, nor legal,” Cavusoglu expressed confidence in return to normal relations with the KRG if they correct the “mistake” they made.

The Minister stated, “It is not too late yet. The Barzani administration could take a step back. If the KRG corrects its mistake, then we can continue with our relations just as we did before the referendum took place.”

There is great joy in Erbil, celebrations and parades on the streets. Iraqi Kurds are exhilarated; they feel like they are progressing towards independence after the September 25 referendum. I was in Erbil right after the referendum and these were my first impressions. However, when I started to talk with people on the street and visit cities like Kirkuk and Sulaymaniyah a couple of days after the referendum, I observed that this mood was shifting. Exhilaration is replaced by unease. Threats of sanctions combined with sharp remarks by Ankara, Tehran and Baghdad along with attacks and escalated tensions in Kirkuk are making people think about what kind of an adventure they have embarked. Everyone is talking about where this is going; the fear of losing all that is achieved could be felt in the air. All people, from the person on the street to politicians, believe that Western countries and Israel will protect them. They aren’t afraid of expressing this openly; however, the look in their eyes, the anxiety indicates that this belief isn’t strong.

Ultimately, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) led by Masoud Barzani and KDP was able to hold the referendum on September 25 in regions including the disputed areas. The timing along with the realization of the referendum despite all regional and international objections raise some questions. The international legitimacy was derived from the balance of domestic politics, consolidating regional authority and Baghdad’s vulnerability combined with fighting against Daesh. Assessing the situation rationally, it seems that opportunities provided by the political conjuncture triggered KRG’s quest for independence. Yet, I’m questioning the existence of other factors that were effective in the referendum process; whether an ecstasy caused by late ethic nationalism and overconfidence or the manipulation of certain international forces, that I don’t know. Nevertheless, they suffered from an eclipse of reason that blinded them to the threats they were to face.

What now?

Even though KRG was prepared for the reactions following the referendum to an extent, it seems that they couldn’t calculate the collective reaction from Baghdad, Tehran and Ankara. They are trying to relieve tensions with Turkey by making some positive remarks regarding the country. Moreover, they are running an international campaign on why KRG’s independence bid must be supported by implying that they play a prominent role against Daesh and have the potential to further Western interest in the region. On the other hand, they are trying to gain the US and EU’s protection by suggesting that Kurds are under a ruthless siege by three countries.

Meanwhile, Erbil is seemingly open to political resolutions and negotiations with Baghdad while refraining from conflict. However, the statements made by Barzani indicate that these negotiations will only be about managing the independence process, which Ibadi has clearly rejected. My observations from the field suggest that Turkey, Iran and Iraq could force KRG to act in a way that doesn’t infringe Iraq’s territorial integrity by creating realpolitik dynamics that could impede their quest for independence, if not completely rendering it irrelevant, through coordinated efforts. The politics of sanction is prominent in this respect; with political, economic and military sanctions, KRG could be forced to negotiate with Baghdad.

Turkey has a number of trump cards in this matter. While establishing correspondence with Iran and Iraq, Turkey should develop a careful strategy that would not allow KRG to fall completely into the area of influence of Tehran-Baghdad. Without severing ties with KDP, Turkey should consolidate its relations with other actors that are critical of the referendum. Turkey should also refrain from seemingly targeting the local populace, keeping the existing sympathy towards Turkey intact. More importantly, however, Turkey should seek opportunities to constrain PKK during this new engagement with Baghdad. Along with searching for a common ground resolution for the Sinjar region, Turkey should break the line between PYD/YPG and KRG, while establishing an alternative border checkpoint to Habur. Moreover, Turkey should persuade Baghdad to protect the rights of Turkmens in Iraq, especially those in Kirkuk.

Following the KRG-initiated Kurdish independence referendum, which took place in KRG-controlled areas in northern Iraq, the U.S. has re-emphasized that it is willing to act as a negotiating power between Erbil and Baghdad.

While criticized by the international community – Turkey, Iran, U.S. and UN were against the referendum – according to the Anadolu Agency, official preliminary results revealed that 93 percent of voters backed the independence.

On Thursday State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert told reports that “The United States, if asked, would be willing to help facilitate a conversation between the two [Erbil and Baghdad].”

Reiterating that the U.S. would only act as a mediating factor if asked, Nauert added “But I want to be clear about that – if asked. If we were asked to assist in any way.”

Following the outcome of the vote, later on Thursday the Iraqi Foreign Ministry announced that the UN offered to mediate between Iraq’s central government and the KRG.

Following a meeting with the UN Iraq Envoy Jan Kubis, in a statement Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim Jaafari stated that he was told “The UN is ready to help you solve the problem with the KRG. The international community supports the territorial integrity of Iraq.”

The statement added that “Iraq has become the center of attention for the whole world, especially after its victory against the Daesh terrorist organization.”

Jaafari called for the UN to play a more effective role in Iraq and pointed out that all Iraqi provinces contributed to the country’s fight against Daesh, which showed sectarian and ethic unity inside Iraq.

Bringing Turks home

Following the decision announced by the Turkish Consulate in Erbil that flights from Turkey to northern Iraq would be suspended as of Friday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that the government would help citizens to leave the KRG region.

“We will use all means available to help our citizens who want to return to Turkey.”

Cavusoglu reminded that the Turkish government had issued travel warnings for Turkish citizens prior to the referendum.

The Foreign Minister added that “We may send planes with special permission [to evacuate the citizens] in the coming period. The decision [whether to stay or leave] of our citizens is important.”

In spite of calls from various leaders all over the world, including Erdogan, Trump, and French President Macron, the KRG President Masoud Barzani chose to go ahead with the independence referendum.

The voters in KRG-held areas vote today, Monday 25 September, on whether to secede from Iraq.

As the vote continues to take place, Iraq Parliament’s speaker Salim al-Jubouri has made it clear that the results of the Kurdish referendum will not be legally binding.

Highlighting the intention of protecting Iraq’s territorial integrity, in a statement Jubouri said that “We [the Baghdad administration] are keen on keeping the Kurds in our homeland.”

Further, he stated that “The unity of Iraq is our main concern and we will not give it up,” going on to blame “wrong policies” for the current state of tension.

Against claims made by Barzani, Jubouri said that “the referendum will affect the upcoming election and will drag the country in a new phase.”

Iran closes border with Northern Iraq

The Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has also come out strong against the referendum, stating that Iraq has his country’s full support for actions necessary to preserve its unity.

According to a written statement by Iraq’s Prime Minister’s office, during a phone call with PM Haider Al-Abadi, Rouhani “stressed his country’s full support for the Iraqi government and all its steps that had taken to preserve Iraq’s unity and territorial integrity.”

“Al-Abadi affirmed the Iraqi government’s efforts to complete the liberation of all Iraqi territory from Daesh’s terrorist gangs, which is a priority for them.”

The statement continued: “Al-Abadi stressed the government’s clear stance to prevent unilateral and unconstitutional procedures that threaten the unity of Iraq, peaceful coexistence among the people of the country, rejection of the referendum and will not deal with its results.”

Following this phone call, the Foreign Ministry of Iran has announced that it has closed its border with northern Iraq’s Kurdish region on Monday.

A day earlier, Tehran ended flights between the territories.

During a news conference in Tehran, Ministry spokesman Behram Qasimi said that “At the request of Iraq, we have closed the airspace and ground borders with the Kurdish Regional Government.”

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has refrained from stepping back from the decision to hold a referendum on independence, where residents in KRG-controlled provinces are scheduled to vote on breaking from Baghdad on 25 September.

The oil rich province of Kirkuk is also among the contested areas where the vote is planned.

In spite of heightening tensions and calls from the US and Turkey to postpone the referendum, calls from Baghdad for further negotiations, the KRG President Masoud Barzani has not announced any cancellation of the referendum.

The statement provided by the Security Council added that the referendum risks detracting from the fight against Daesh, and that it could also disrupt efforts to ensure the safe return of over three million refugees and internally displaced persons to the country.

Council members “expressed their continuing respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and unity of Iraq,” urging all issues between the central Baghdad government and the Erbil administration to be resolved “through structured dialogue and compromise supported by the international community.”

International call for referendum to be cancelled

In addition to President Erdogan and the US President Trump who are both in agreement that the vote should not go ahead, French President Emmanuel Macron also stressed the importance of maintaining Iraq’s territorial integrity.

During a phone call made with Barzani, Macron reportedly asked the KRG President to postpone the controversial referendum.

A statement issued by Barzani’s office stated that the two men discussed the “important role” played by the Kurdish Peshmerga forces in the ongoing fight against Daesh in Iraq.

Barzani nevertheless confirmed to Macron that the referendum would be held on schedule, while also stressing Erbil’s readiness to hold dialogue with Baghdad after the poll.

http://thenewturkey.org/the-kurdish-quest-for-independence-in-iraq-and-its-repercussions-for-turkey-and-the-region/

Turkey to debate military operation in Iraq and Syria

The ongoing developments in Iraq and Syria remain high on the political agenda.

In this regard, according to the Justice and Development (AK) Party’s parliamentary group deputy chairman, the parliament will hold an extraordinary session on Saturday to debate the extension of Turkish military operations in northern Iraq and Syria.

Mustafa Elitas stated that “the general assembly of the Turkish Parliament will hold an extraordinary session on Sept. 23 at 16.00 [4 p.m. local time] to debate the extension of the Prime Ministry’s motion that enables the government to conduct cross-border operations in northern Iraq and Syria.”

The motion had previously allowed the Turkish military to carry out cross-border operations from Oct. 2, 2016 until Oct. 31, 2017.

The independence referendum for Kurds in northern Iraq is set to take place on September 25 despite international disapproval. Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Regional Government insists on pursuing the referendum knowing that neither Turkey nor the United States support the decision.

Ankara and Washington

There have been many arguments as to why the two countries do not support the proposed independence referendum. While the US has been a long advocate of Kurdish autonomy, President Trump has stated that the timing of the referendum is wrong and that it will negatively affect the fight against Daesh. Moreover, he has called for the KRG to maintain diplomatic dialogue with Baghdad, something the US is willing to lead and observe.

Being a neighbor, the independence referendum will have a highly significant impact on the domestic and foreign politics of Turkey. Not only due to regional stability depending on the territorial integrity of Iraq, the domestic fight against the PKK also has the ability to be shaped by the independence referendum in northern Iraq. While relations between the KRG and Turkish state have been maintained on stable levels, the potential fear of the PKK hijacking an independent Kurdish state has always remained salient. Continuous remarks and warnings have been issued against the KRG from both President Erdogan and Prime Minister Yildirim, urging the KRG to defect from their decision to hold the planned referendum.

United Nations

Other than Turkey and the US, the United Nations Secretary General has also warned against the Iraqi Kurdish referendum. Gutteres stated that the unilateral decision to hold the independence vote ‘would detract from the need to defeat Daesh,’ underlining the worries of Turkey and the US.

“The Secretary-General believes that any unilateral decision to hold a referendum at this time would detract from the need to defeat ISIL, as well as the much-needed reconstruction of the regained territories and the facilitation of a safe, voluntary and dignified return of the more than three million refugees and internally displaced people,” Stephane Dujarric said in a statement, referring to the Daesh militant group.

Iraq

With the unilateral territory and sovereignty of Iraq at stake, Vice President Nouri al-Maliki warned the KRG of creating a ‘second Israel’ in northern Iraq. Israel has been the most prominent country in support of the referendum, as it sees a Kurdish state as an end to its own isolation in the region.

With the latest developments, the Iraqi Supreme Court has ruled to suspend the Kurdish referendum on Monday 18 September until it makes a final ruling on the case at the request of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.

The office of the Iraqi PM Abadi said that he filed the court case against Kurdish President Masoud Barzani and the Kurdish parliament speaker Yousif Mohammed.

The statement said Abadi called on the court to not allow “any region or province to separate from Iraq.”

On 15^th September, the Iraqi Kurdish parliament voted to hold an independence referendum planned by the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), which is currently opposed by Baghdad, Turkey and the United States.

The resolution passed by an absolute majority with 65 out of 68 deputies in the chamber, while three MPs rejected the resolution.

The referendum is due to take place on 25 September 2017.

Ankara and Washington call for the suspension of the referendum

Both Ankara and Washington have urged the KRG to call off the independence referendum, on the basis that it will increase the isolation of Kurds in the region and will affect the fight against terrorist organizations.

While the US has long been a supporter of Kurdish autonomy, it claims that the current referendum is not suitable due to its timing. It claims that the referendum will further de-stabilize the region and affect the fight against DAESH.

Moreover, President Donald Trump has called for the KRG to engage in serious dialogue with Baghdad, which Washington “has repeatedly indicated it is prepared to facilitate.”

In attempts to persuade the KRG, US envoy Brett McGurk visited Masoud Barzani, leader of the KRG, in order to call off the referendum and to engage in a new diplomatic initiative.

Likewise, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has claimed that the initiated referendum lacks reason and experience. In a statement made, he stressed that Turkey would not allow steps that would threaten Iraq’s territorial integrity.

In addition, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim called the Iraqi Kurdish region’s decision to hold an independence referendum a “false step.”

The independence referendum carries importance for Turkey not only due to potential territorial changes in the region, but also in concern of its fight against the PKK, which is recognized as a terrorist organization by both the US and Europe.

The densely Kurdish populated areas of Iraq obtained political recognition and autonomy from the central government of Iraq with the 2005 Iraqi constitution. This is how the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), originally established in 1992, and Kurdistan Region Presidency, formed in 2005, came to this day. Since then, Masoud Barzani, the president of the KRG, along with many other local political actors, has occasionally stressed the need for the region’s independence. Hence, independence calls are not new for the KRG. They have been made before, but never this loud, never this close. On June 7 Masoud Barzani, after a meeting with the major political parties of the region –with the exception of Gorran (Change Movement) – set the date for the referendum as September 25.

The referendum is planned to be held not only in KRG provinces such as Erbil (Hawler), Duhok, Suleimani, and Halabja but also in areas still claimed by the central government such as the oil-rich province of Kirkuk. The planned referendum will be a cornerstone not only for the KRG but also for the broader region. Nevertheless, there are pressing concerns and conflicts of interests on the referendum, its aftermath and political consequences at the local (KRG), national, and international levels. Here, concerns of the local actors in the KRG-ruled areas are of vital importance.

The upcoming independence referendum seems far from uniting the local actors in the KRG controlled areas. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has come first in all the parliamentary elections up to now and is the party of both the regional president Masoud Barzani (since 2005) and the regional prime minister Nechirvan Barzani (since 2012 and previously from 2006 to 2009). While the party is the leading Kurdish political actor of Iraq, it is not uncontested. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Gorran, disappointed with the KDP’s governance in the KRG and Masoud Barzani’s ruling beyond his legally constrained presidential term, made an agreement in May 2016 to join forces for a number of causes, but most importantly for the reactivation of the regional parliament and counterbalancing the KDP. The two parties have more or less stuck to this deal so far despite occasional dissent from within the parties.

The PUK and Gorran, combined, make up 42 seats in the deactivated regional parliament, outnumbering the 38 seats held by the KDP. While the PUK and Gorran seem to embrace the idea of Kurdish independence from Iraq, the two also declared that “complete preparations” for a referendum on independence should be made after the normalization of the parliament, which has not sat since October 2015. Although the PUK and Gorran are concerned about the KDP’s hijacking of an independent Kurdistan, they are also not without problems given that Gorran split from the PUK as a result of internal rifts and has long charged both the KDP and PUK with corruption, on top of its tough rivalry with the PUK, particularly in Suleimani, which both see as their stronghold.

The PUK and Gorran’s deal to act as a bloc is not without problems. Moreover, both of the parties are going through a succession crisis to replace former Iraq president and PUK leader Jalal Talebani, who is in the midst of severe health problems, and the recent death of Gorran leader Nawshirwan Mustafa. Suffering from the absence of such charismatic and experienced leaders, the two parties seem to be far behind Masoud Barzani’s influence over the people of Iraq Kurdistan, the official name of the region according to the 2005 constitution. That’s also the primary reason why the tougher of the two, Gorran prefers a parliamentary system over the KDP’s presidential system proposal. And that is just part of a long list of disputes between the major political parties in the region.

While the three major parties in the Kurdistan Region have serious trust issues and problems on the table, the politics of the region is further troubled with the longstanding existence of the PKK in the region. The PKK has long struggled against the KDP’s authority across the Turkish border and could maintain its own areas up to this day. Yet now it is on the move again to expand at the cost of the KRG’s, particularly, the KDP’s interests.

Since breaking an over two-year long ceasefire with Turkey in July 2015, the PKK has also become more aggressive in Northern Iraq. The PKK could exploit DAESH’s presence to the best of its interests both in Syria and Iraq and now will likely destabilize the region further as the deadly clashes between the PKK affiliated forces and KRG Peshmerga in Sinjar in March 2017 showed. While the KDP and Turkey have had ups and downs in the course of their relationship since the Gulf War of 1991, the KDP, compared to other local actors, has remained the closest entity to an ally for Turkey. Once again Turkey and the KRG under the rule of the KDP are in a win-win game, deepening their commercial ties to an unprecedented degree while cooperating against the PKK. The two governments on the two sides of the border have allied against the PKK’s terror activities against Turkey and ambitions of expansion in the Iraq side of the border.

With its terror camps in Northern Iraq scattered from Metina to Qandil and its relentless use of violence against any adversary, the PKK is a real threat for the KRG’s move towards independence and what comes after. Any definition of statehood makes reference to Max Weber’s classical definition with its emphasis on the monopoly on the legitimate use of violence and the PKK has repeatedly shown that it has no intention to stop challenging the KRG or any other government’s claim on this.

Given the parameters, President Barzani’s call for independence will not be a smooth path. The upcoming referendum on September 25 is likely to exacerbate the existing tensions amongst the Kurdish actors settled in Northern Iraq. Of course, no local actor could directly object to Masoud Barzani’s referendum call, which would threaten the mass support they have. Nevertheless, all the relevant actors in the region, with the natural exception of the KDP, question the timing and aftermath of the expected referendum and express their concern that the referendum is not genuine but a political card being used by the KDP to extend and expand its rule of the KRG.

On the other hand, Masoud Barzani seems to be aware of the risks and opportunities that the post-DAESH Iraq will pose and he is eager not to leave the ground to the endless claims of the PKK while the PUK and Gorran are also trying to counterbalance his de facto supremacy. The referendum and possible independence process gets even more complicated when the non-Kurdish actors –both within and out of Iraq- are taken into account but Masoud Barzani is not naive enough to start a game that he has no chance of winning. Either way, the referendum is a fair game that Barzani dares to play.