Iraqi Premier al-Kadhimi and his mentor Iraqi President Barham Saleh are making a futile attempt against all odds at home to carve a new leadership role for the country by availing themselves of the chaotic internal conditions and the strained and fragile post-Arab Spring Middle East order.

A conference was held in Baghdad on August 28, 2021, which the two Iraqi leaders were originally hoping would be a summit. However, the list of attendees shows that it turned out to be a one-day ministerial-level conference.

Al-Kadhimi co-sponsored the conference in Baghdad with French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the war in Yemen, Lebanon’s collapse, the regional water crisis, and the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. The Iraqi and the Arab media paid special attention to the conference, raising the expectations.

The statement of the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper read, “The Saudi and Iranian presence, through their foreign ministers, Faisal bin Farhan and Hussein Amir Abdullahian, also indicated an increasing desire on both sides to find lines to meet.”

Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein indicated that the Saudi-Iranian meetings are continuing and that they began in Baghdad with a meeting that took place between the ruler of Dubai and the Iranian foreign minister. Iraqi officials viewed the meetings between the emir of Qatar, Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, and Bin Rashid of Dubai as a major breakthrough.

Nevertheless, the rapprochement between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors had commenced before the Baghdad conference. The Saudi-Iranian dialogue was launched in April this year as the U.S. and Iran held negotiations on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran (JCPOA) – a development which alarmed the Saudis. The latter are afraid of a possible deal at their expense.

Tehran’s sensitive relationship with Baghdad and the issue of not using Iraq as a launching pad to launch attacks on neighboring countries were not addressed.

Al-Kadhimi and Macron are trying to seize the opportunity presented to them to assert leadership and enhance their dwindling power base at home as elections are approaching. It appears that President Joe Biden’s strategic shift in foreign policy orientation from the Middle East to Asia, his stated policy of making human rights the priority of his foreign policy abroad, and the recent debacle in Afghanistan have alarmed Arab regional leaders, Saudis, and the United Arab Emirates and convinced them to chart a new foreign policy in the region and regard Washington as unreliable.

Iran has its own reason to be receptive of regional dialogue as well. Being hard-pressed by the U.S.-led economic embargo initiated by the earlier U.S. administrations, and intensified by the Donald Trump administration to maximum pressure, and which the Biden administration so far has done nothing tangible to alleviate, Iran was not in a position to refuse negotiation. What is more, the hardline President Raisi stated during his inauguration speech that there will be serious openings internally and externally to better the conditions in the country.

Finally, being hard-pressed by COVID19, and the shadow war which is continuing with Israelis, Iran had no choice but to act on pragmatic considerations and accept peaceful engagements with its regional foes. However, this does not stop Iran from pursuing its war against the U.S. and its regional allies through regional proxies.

The Baghdad government’s initiative to hold a regional conference also had an Iranian blessing.

Thus, the Baghdad government’s initiative to hold a regional conference also had an Iranian blessing: it is an attempt to find a loophole in the siege wall and isolation imposed by the United States and its allies on Iran.

U.S. officials are fully aware of Iran’s foreign policy objectives but still seem to be committed to the success of the Vienna Talks. For this reason, Biden has empowered Macron, who aspires to a new leadership role abroad to stop his declining popularity at home, to be the channel for conveying messages to Iran. Due to Macron’s occasionally voiced opposition to Trump’s unilateralism, Iran seems to have accepted Macron’s mediating role.

President Saleh of Iraq, following the footsteps of his group leader Jalal Talabani, a former Iraqi president who tried to play a mediating role between Iranian and western leaders, especially the U.S., seems to have convinced al-Kadhimi to initiate this conference.

Saleh has recently been engaged in intensive shuttle diplomacy in Iraq with various influential groups, especially the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), and regional countries, while he also met President Reisi to ensure his second term as president of Iraq. The holding of the regional conference was an attempt to enhance his chance to be re-elected for a second term.

Although al-Kadhimi has made numerous statements to the effect that in the future he will not stand for any post, his recent political statements and the numerous measures he has taken recently indicate that he is hopeful that he will continue in his post most probably in an alliance which will be composed by the opponents of Iran’s dominant influence in Iraq: the Sadr followers of Sairun, the Nasr bloc, and the Kurdish groups. The success of this conference could enhance his role regionally and internally.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi arrived in Baghdad on June 27, 2021 and was received by Iraqi President Barham Salih. This visit marks the first official visit by an Egyptian head of state to Iraq since the Gulf War in 1990. It marks the fourth in a series of trilateral summits between Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq as part of their growing regional collaboration.

The summit included King Abdullah II of Jordan, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi and Egypt’s president al-Sisi. The summit was held in Baghdad within the framework of a tripartite cooperation initiative, which started in Cairo in March 2019.

The Egyptian, Jordanian, and Iraqi leaders met in Baghdad for the latest summit to discuss political and economic cooperation, investments, and other developments in the Middle East. A joint statement was released at the end of the meeting.

The statement highlighted possible ways of cooperation in the fields of energy, trade, and security. The talks also covered regional issues including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Syria crisis, and the war in Yemen. The leaders called for restoring stability in Libya and Yemen.

Al-Sisi emphasized Egypt’s respect and support for Iraq’s territorial unity. He shared Egypt’s intention to cooperate with Iraq within the framework of economic integration and strategic cooperation. Al-Sisi stated Egypt’s desire to increase communication between cultural, educational, and religious institutions in both countries.

Similarly, Iraqi President Barham Salih tweeted, “Our deep-rooted historical relations would be a starting point for a promising future for our peoples and the youths. It is a powerful message amid formidable challenges in the region. Iraq’s recovery will pave the way for a regional integrated system, based on contending extremism, respecting sovereignty, and economic partnerships.”

Along the same lines, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi  stated, “We are keen on continuing this effort and developing relations to build joint ventures serving everyone. We try to crystalize a mechanism for tripartite cooperation, and dedicate our efforts and capabilities to keep this level of cooperation.”

Egyptian presidential spokesperson Bassam Rady stated, “The new round of talks builds on what has been achieved during the previous three summits, evaluates developments in various cooperation fields, and follows up on projects being implemented as part of efforts aiming to support and deepen historical ties between the three countries. We are trying to crystalize political consultation over means to counter challenges facing the Arab world and the Middle East.”

Previous trilateral summits between Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq

The latest round is the fourth summit held between the three countries. The first summit was held in Cairo in March 2019 and a joint statement highlighted major areas for cooperation following the summit. The three countries’ rulers acknowledged the importance of their strategic and economic cooperation.

The second summit took place in New York in September 2019, during which the three leaders stressed their full support for the Palestinian cause, which is a rallying point for the Muslim world, and that it was Palestinians’ right to enjoy legitimate rights including an independent state with East Jerusalem as its capital. This was in line with the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 and international agreements.

Talks among the three leaders urged regional powers to face and oppose any state or entity funding or supporting terrorism in the region. Full support was declared for Iraqi efforts to rebuild the state and help displaced people after their towns were captured by the ISIS (Daesh) terrorist group.

In 2020, a one-day summit in Amman covered trade, investments, and economic cooperation, along with other regional developments. The summit was seen as an attempt to build a regional alliance to neutralize Iranian influence in Iraq, especially after accusations of Iranian intervention in Iraqi internal affairs.

The third summit discussed joint security issues and food security in the region. King Abdullah II stressed the importance of the meeting, considering the exceptional circumstances faced by both the region and the world. He pointed especially to food security, claiming that it would be one of biggest challenges in 2021 and that it would require uniting efforts to find common solutions.

The ongoing Israeli policies of mass expulsion of Palestinians from the neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah in Jerusalem is a continuation of a more than seven-decade-long policy of ethnic cleansing against native Palestinians following the creation of Israel on May 15, 1948.

Israel’s nature has been augmented in ethnic cleansing and settler-colonialism from day one, when its creation meant the mass expulsion of some 750,000 Palestinians from 532 villages in 1948. Israel’s creation on the ruins of Palestine was based on a complete negation of their existence, forcing them out of their lands and houses, and replacing them with colonial-settlers from all over the world.

Israel’s settler-colonialism and viewing Palestinians as a threat to this project and, therefore, displacing them by all means possible – was and still is the backbone of this project. Despite the UN Resolution 194, which calls for the return of Palestinian refugees to their towns and villages, Israel continues not only denying these refugees the right to return, but also pursues its policies of expulsion against Palestinians who managed to remain in their towns and villages.

From relocating these Palestinians to ghettos such as those in Jaffa, to placing them under military orders in what became Israel, to mass expulsion such as the case of the village of Abu Ghosh in 1950 and Al-Majdal in 1949-1950, Israel has proven repeatedly that its settler-colonialism project necessarily means uprooting the Palestinians.

Not only this – Israel has engaged in another war of changing history by renaming most street names and villages taken from their Palestinian owners and giving them Hebrew names. The village of Yibna became “Yivne,” the village of Aqer became “Kiryat Ekron,” and so on. Zionism has taken over an entire country with institutions and infrastructure and has turned its people into refugees. The process of changing demographics and names targeted Palestinians from villages around Jerusalem, especially west of Jerusalem.

Flourishing Palestinian neighborhoods to the west of Jerusalem such as al-Qatamoun, al-Talbieh, al-Baqa’a, and others were depopulated, and the houses were stolen in the most barbaric manner and given to the families of high-ranking Israeli generals as war booty.

Flourishing Palestinian neighborhoods to the west of Jerusalem such as al-Qatamoun, al-Talbieh, al-Baqa’a, and others were depopulated, and the houses were stolen in the most barbaric manner and given to the families of high-ranking Israeli generals as war booty. Some of these houses belonged to well-known Palestinian families such as al-Dajani, al-Khalidi, al-Karmi, and many others.

The house of the family of the well-known Palestinian-American intellectual Edward Said was among these houses in al- Talbieh. In some cases, invading Zionist militias found food still hot on stoves left behind by terrified Palestinian families who had to leave at gunpoint.

The return of Palestinian refugees is a taboo topic that Israel is not willing to discuss. The bad news for Israel is that despite all its plans to force Palestinians out of Jerusalem, it has failed miserably. The numbers speak louder than its actions. Khalil Tafakji, the head of the maps department at the Arab Studies Society in Jerusalem, in the Old City of Jerusalem, told Politics Today that out of 4,220 ownership deeds, Palestinians, either Muslims or Christians, or private owners, own a total of 84%, in addition to the 8% owned by Muslim waqfs. The remaining deeds are classified either as under state or municipality ownership, including real estate owned by Jewish settlers, most of which is located in the city’s Jewish Quarter, which has historically been predominantly Jewish. These numbers do not include waqf ownership associated with the Al-Aqsa Mosque.

Some 35,000 Palestinians live in the Old City alongside some 4,500 Jewish settlers. The numbers of the latter fluctuate depending on tensions in the city as many of them live in settler outposts. This is despite all Israeli attempts to use legal loopholes to strip Palestinians off their houses by imposing high taxes on them, unleashing armed-to-the-teeth radical colonial-settlers against them, and using excessive police violence.

Israel uses all possible means to force Palestinians out of Jerusalem. This includes offering them huge sums of money. The owners of one of four houses currently under threat of expulsion in Sheikh Jarrah were offered $6 million to leave the house and they refused. The Israeli government claims that what is happening in Sheikh Jarrah is a “real estate dispute,” which is laughable. What Israeli settler told Palestinian Muna al-Kurd, whose house is under threat of confiscation, on camera says it all. “If I don’t steal it, someone else is gonna steal it,” he said in English. This only proves that this is a systemic campaign led by settler groups to kick Palestinians out.

In light of the Palestinians’ refusal to leave, the Israeli apparatus moved to using force to expel them. This included breaking into Al-Aqsa Mosque and firing rubber-coated canisters and sound bombs at worshipers, injuring 208 Palestinians, according to the Palestinian Red Crescent Society. Three of these Palestinians lost one or both of their eyes as the invading Israeli police intentionally targeted Palestinians in the head. Palestinians faced their repression with their bare chests with one Palestinian teen literally jumping into a group of Israeli soldiers. The battle conjures images of David and Goliath.

History proves that Israel’s use of force against Palestinians only backfires. The Israeli state has to recognize the rights of Palestinians because maintaining an apartheid system, as it has recently been characterized by Human Rights Watch, will end up costing them way more than giving the Palestinians their full rights. Palestinians are not going to disappear, be it in Jerusalem or inside Israel itself. Today, Israel has turned into apartheid state that thinks a Jewish settler who just arrived in the country has a right to houses that have been inhabited by Palestinians for hundreds of years.

Israel might have the power now to suppress the Palestinians, shoot them in the eye, fabricate claims that what is happening in Sheikh Jarrah is a “real estate dispute,” but its intellectual leaders, unlike its politicians, know very well that they can’t sustain this system of apartheid for very long. In the same way that the Second Palestinian Intifada erupted in Jerusalem, a Third Palestinian Intifada is now a stone’s throw away. But this time, no one knows where it will stop. And then, all the normalization agreements and all the recognitions of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital will not be able to stop the Palestinians and their supporters across the globe.

Greater Arab integration has long been a dream of the Arab people. Wherever one travels in the Middle East, the romantic idea of Arab unity and brotherhood pervades conversations, and it is not uncommon to hear Arabs speaking positively about the idea of forging closer bonds with their fellow Arabs in other countries.

Therefore, when news emerges of summits being held and planned by two historically important Arab powers such as Iraq and Egypt, there are always murmurs of “what could be?” should these summits bear fruit.

However, considering recent Arab history, the chances of anything fruitful emerging from these talks to establish greater Arab interdependency should be taken with a fistful of salt.

The Egypt-Jordan-Iraq land bridge

Alongside Jordan acting as a nexus between the two, the leaders of the three countries have hatched preliminary agreements to create land corridors between Iraq and Egypt, allowing for cross-border trade, investments, and the transfer of manpower and energy between the three nations.

The idea is that, for $130 dollars per ticket. Egyptian passengers could board a ferry at Nuweiba, cross over to Jordan’s Aqaba, and then use the Jordanian road network to access Iraq and even Syria when the security situation permits. This would facilitate a two-way exchange of goods, expertise, labour, and energy, providing a tripartite economic partnership that benefits all.

Iraq currently cannot support its own energy needs, despite its rich oil wealth and natural gas deposits.

By utilizing Egypt’s vast human resources to enhance the labour force in Iraq in particular, and by exploiting Iraq’s substantial fossil fuel reserves to provide energy to its energy starved neighbors, it appears like a win-win for all involved. In fact, an agreement between Egypt and Iraq at the end of last year has already paved the way for Egyptian contractors to redevelop dilapidated and bombed out Iraqi cities in exchange for oil.

But this plan is poor from the outset. Iraq currently cannot support its own energy needs, despite its rich oil wealth and natural gas deposits. Indeed, Baghdad currently imports most of its energy needs from neighboring Iran, which has a disproportionate level of influence over Iraqi affairs and has infiltrated most of its political, economic, and security institutions leaving Iraq as a rump state servicing the needs of Tehran rather than the Iraqi people.

A history of failure

If it flounders, the imperiled tripartite agreement will not be the first to fail in the Arab world. Arab unity and cooperation has been tried many times throughout the modern Middle East since the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Indeed, the first attempt at uniting the Arab world was the Arab Revolt that was supported by the British Empire in a successful attempt to undermine the Ottomans and divide their lands.

However, rather than live up to their end of the bargain by allowing their client Sharif Hussein bin Ali to become king of the Arabs, the British divided up Arab lands between themselves and the French, beginning decades of brutal and exploitative colonial rule.

In the post-colonial era, nominally independent yet weak and incompetent Arab rulers again made a cosmetic attempt at uniting their forces in 1948, this time in a military alliance to defeat the nascent Israeli state and expel the Jewish occupation of Palestinian Arab lands. That campaign ended in monumental failure, as did the wars of 1967 and 1973.

But before the wars of the 1960s and the 1970s, the secular nationalist Arab rulers of Egypt and Syria attempted a political union under the leadership of Egyptian independence icon Gamal Abdel Nasser. The United Arab Republic, as it was known, brought together Egypt and Syria in a political union in 1958 that had the potential to be as effective as the united territories of the same lands under Sultan Salahuddin al-Ayoubi who, in 1187, reconquered Jerusalem from the Crusaders.

However, Nasser’s undeniable charisma could not plug the shortfalls caused by his incompetence, poor planning, and institutionally poor governance. Eventually, the Syrian military forced themselves into the equation and restored the pre-UAR Syrian republic, re-establishing their independence in 1961. This paved the way for the Syrian coups of 1963, 1966, and 1971 that established Hafez al-Assad as the sole dictator of a Ba’athist regime. We all know the results of those events, as Hafez’s son, Bashar, is currently in the process of butchering his own people.

This long history of failure by greedy, weak, and self-interested Arab rulers places into doubt any enterprise that they engage in or appear to be making moves towards agreeing. After all, the Saudi-Egypt Causeway that has been in development since the mid-2000s has yet to see the light of day, in large part because Israel has opposed it.

The stark reality is that any plan that may appear to benefit the Arab people will either be scuppered by Arab leaders or else will be vetoed by more powerful interlocutors such as Israel or the United States.

It is therefore highly doubtful that these states, who suffer from so much internal instability as aptly demonstrated by an attempted coup in Jordan earlier this month, will be able to make anything substantial work.

For a long time, Jordan has been considered an island of stability in one of the world’s most volatile regions. Surrounded by chaos and failed states, it has turned into a haven for those running away from death and destruction. Despite its minimal resources, it became a destination for Palestinians, Iraqis, Syrians, and even Lebanese.

Just a few days before celebrating its first centenary, Jordan witnessed an unprecedented political crisis, at least on the royal family level. The typical picture of a stable Jordan was briefly shaken when the authorities arrested around 20 people and sought to restrain Prince Hamzah bin Hussein’s movement, the former crown prince and the half brother of King Abdullah bin al-Hussein, for being involved in a plot targeting Jordan’s stability and security.

This serious development came amidst a growing list of internal social and economic challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid the financial hardship the country is facing, the rise of corruption, the skyrocketing of unemployment rates, and the long-lasting delay of serious political and economic reforms, the authorities seem sensitive, the critics seem encouraged, the people seem nervous, and the country seems more vulnerable than ever.

Supporters of Prince Hamzah and his sympathizers firmly believe that the authorities’ claim of foreign involvement and a collusion between Prince Hamzah and Bassem Awadallah, who is known to be opportunistic and corrupt, is bogus and fabricated. 

They argue that by doing this, the authorities aim to stir confusion, distract the people, and smear the reputation of the prince. Accordingly, pundits representing this camp swiftly excluded a scenario in which foreign actors might be involved or in which Prince Hamzah might have colluded with Awadallah, calling it “nonsense.” While the supporters of Prince Hamzah have no concrete evidence or proof of their argument, their rhetoric is mainly based on the following three assumptions.

First, Prince Hamzah is a nationalist who derives his support from East Bank Jordanians, a population not only incompatible with those who may support Awadallah (of Palestinian origins) but who also have no interest in a plot supported by foreign aid.

Second, Israelis have strong intelligence ties with their Jordanian counterparts and therefore, it would be counterintuitive to get involved in a plot of this kind against King Abdullah.

Several more qualified princes and crown princes were dismissed or demoted from their positions without creating such a ruckus, including the famous and capable former Crown Prince El-Hassan bin Talal, brother of late King Hussein and uncle of Hamzah.

From the perspective of those who would like to consider a possible foreign involvement in the latest turmoil, one main argument is that if the “foreign factor” is fabricated, why would the Jordanian authorities arrest senior figures known to be very close to the Saudi and Emirati authorities? Why would the Jordanian authorities risk seriously jeopardizing their country’s relations with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi if the whole issue is staged and has no concrete grounds?

Given that there is no lack or shortage of corrupt figures to be used in a staged operation, there is no sensible reason to force the government to do what it did unless there is evidence against those who were arrested.

The fact that Basem Awadallah previously worked as chief of the Royal Hashemite Court means that he has access to sensitive and critical details about the internal situation in Jordan, including which tribes, groups, and figures to contact, utilize, build relations with, pay, etc. In other words, this makes him the Saudi-based version of the infamous UAE-based Mohammad Dahlan.

Moreover, claiming that MBS and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) have no interest in plotting against another monarchy doesn’t add up when we take into consideration the fact that they have shown irrational and irresponsible behavior in the past – until last January, they plotted against Qatar and worked restlessly to overthrow its emir.

During Trump’s era, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, and Jared Kushner put maximum pressure on Jordan and its king to accept the so-called Deal of the Century. Despite the U.S. pressure, King Abdullah refused to bow and thus was seen as a primary obstacle to their grand scheme.

Back in 2017, the aforementioned countries warned King Abdullah of their dissatisfaction with his signs of resistance. At the end of that year, MBS detained Sabih al-Masri, one of the most prominent Jordanian billionaires (of Palestinian roots), chairman of the Arab Bank, and a key player in the Jordanian economy. It is believed that detaining al-Masri was part of a plan to coerce King Abdullah.

At the time, several reports claimed that King Abdullah was summoned to Riyadh and warned not to attend a Muslim summit called by Turkish President Erdoğan to rally the Islamic world against Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. King Abdullah turned a deaf ear to these threats and flew directly from Riyadh to Istanbul.

Not only did he attend the summit, but he also stood by Erdoğan’s side in the front row for the photo session. Later, he openly stated that Jordan and himself were under foreign pressure to accept the “Deal of the Century.”

In 2019, Jordan declined to list the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization despite repeated calls by the Saudi and Emirati authorities to do so. The UAE-Israeli normalization accords at the end of 2020 further undermined the status and role of Jordan. These accords allowed Israel to bypass Amman on the Palestinian issue, the Jerusalem (al-Quds) issue, the peace process, and to disregard its objections and protests.

The relation between Jordan and Israel significantly deteriorated after the Abraham Accords. The Hashimite Kingdom stopped renewing a 25-year-old agreement that granted Israel private land use in Jordan’s al Baqura and Ghamr.