In addition to the central Iraqi administration, Turkey, Iran and the US have openly opposed the referendum, calling for the territorial integrity of Iraq.
While sanctions have been imposed on KRG by regional and international actors including Turkey, Iran and the central Iraqi administration, Israel is the only country that has openly welcomed the referendum.
fter the agreements taken between Iran, Turkey and Russia during the Astana talks, the Turkish administration emphasized that it was to observe the ceasefire between the Assad-loyal militias and the Syrian rebel factions.
While the result of the referendum has been announced to be 93% in favour of independence, the international community, including the UN, US, Turkey and Iran refuse to accept the result.
These developments can be listed as follows:
The Treaty of Sèvres, which Turkey did not accede to in 1922
The British Mandate during World War II in 1943
Soviet invasion in 1946
The coup attempt in Iraq in 1958
The Baath coup in 1963
The tension between Iraq and Iran-U.
The region’s countries are against the referendumIraq’s neighbors, including Turkey and Iran, have adopted a strict stance against the referendum as they foresee the heavy costs of managing the potential risks of a possible independence in northern Iraq.
My observations from the field suggest that Turkey, Iran and Iraq could force KRG to act in a way that doesn’t infringe Iraq’s territorial integrity by creating realpolitik dynamics that could impede their quest for independence, if not completely rendering it irrelevant, through coordinated efforts.
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During a meeting in Kazakh capital Astana on May 4, the guarantor countries – Russia, Turkey and Iran – signed a deal to establish de-escalation zones in Syria.
envoy to the UN Nikki Haley said that a political transition was “indispensable for peace,” but that it must be “one that does not allow Iranian influence to replace ISIS or Assad in power.
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The KRG President Barzani has called for negotiations with Baghdad for independence, however, the potential punitive measures and political alienation by Turkey and Iran may weaken the KRG’s hand in forcing such negotiations.
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The decision to hold the referendum has not only diminished relations with Turkey but also with Iran, that the country has already closed its border with northern Iraq.
Talking to reporters in Ankara, the CHP leader called for Turkey, Iran and the central Iraqi government to find a common solution to the problem in northern Iraq following Monday’s controversial referendum.
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Following announcements from the State Department, White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee-Sanders told reporters that “we hope for a unified Iraq to annihilate ISIS, and certainly a unified Iraq to push back on Iran.
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Iran closes border with Northern IraqThe Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has also come out strong against the referendum, stating that Iraq has his country’s full support for actions necessary to preserve its unity.
Turkey, US, Iran and many Western European governments have strongly stated their opposition to the referendum and have called for Barzani to negotiate with the Baghdad administration in order to secure a new deal.