Ever wondered why the prices of commodities keep rising? In the realm of commerce, the change of prices is a constant. However, when the prices of a multitude of goods and services rise collectively, a phenomenon known as inflation emerges.  If you feel like your money doesn’t stretch as far as it used to, that’s the erosion of currency value over time that we call inflation. But here is the twist – even when inflation is slowing down, prices aren’t necessarily falling; but rather, increasing at a slower pace.

Recent times have witnessed a noteworthy shift in economic discourse, marked by a renewed concern over inflation. After a prolonged period of perplexity surrounding persistently low inflation, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic instigated a substantial departure, introducing an era characterized by stubbornly high inflation. This surge in prices is linked to various factors.

These factors for the inflationary trend can be interpreted along the lines of supply and demand. On the supply side, disruptions stemming from COVID-19, such as logistical challenges and workforce shortages, converged with spikes in energy and food prices induced by geopolitical events, notably the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Simultaneously, on the demand side, substantial financial injections into households and enterprises by governments during the pandemic aimed at mitigating the impacts of lockdowns and layoffs resulted in an increased money supply, potentially contributing to the inflationary surge.

This economic shift, has exacerbated financial burden as a result of pivotal commodities experiencing substantial price increments—such as housing, energy, and food, particularly for those whose income has not kept pace with inflation. In many countries around the world, peaking inflation had threatened governments with social unrest, noteably in Sri Lanka ,Pakistan and numerous countries in Latin America, as well as protests in relatively high income countries like the U.K.

As inflation persists, in this month’s book bundle we examine books that demystify inflation, delve into unexplored trends, address common policy mishaps, and offer solutions to aid both policymakers and citizens to sustainably navigate these seemingly precarious times.

Inflation: What It Is, Why It’s Bad, and How to Fix It unravels the complexities of the most significant inflationary upheaval in over four decades, a phenomenon that has gripped headlines and left many grappling with the tangible impacts on their finances. Against the backdrop of the cost-of-living surge triggered by the COVID pandemic, the book sounds the alarm about the potential resurgence of a “Great Inflation,” with some observers expressing concerns of an even more ominous descent into hyperinflation that has historically devastated nations.

In response, the authors, Steve Forbes, Nathan Lewis, and Elizabeth Ames, engage readers in a captivating discussion that not only answers pressing questions but also charts a course for preparing for an uncertain future.

The authors draw on their expertise—Forbes as the chairman of Forbes Media, Lewis as an internationally recognized authority on money and taxation, and Ames as an accomplished author and journalist—to challenge prevailing misperceptions that have contributed to the current crisis.

They confront the widely held belief that central banks can spur prosperity by conjuring money “out of thin air” and debunk the notion that a certain level of economic “stability” necessitates “a little inflation.” These ideas, treated as sacrosanct in Washington for decades, are scrutinized in detail in Inflation exposing why they are flawed and how they have fueled the existing challenges.

The book critically examines the heedless money-printing and underscores the perilous path such policies could lead us down. Through a compelling blend of examples drawn from contemporary headlines and historical episodes, Inflation offers a real-world exploration of the subject, directly addressing the everyday concerns of individuals dealing with the tangible consequences of rising prices. Moreover, the authors provide practical steps that readers can take to protect their wealth.

Steve Forbes, Nathan Lewis, and Elizabeth Ames, Inflation: What It Is, Why It’s Bad, and How to Fix It (Encounter Books, 2022) ISBN: 9781641772433, 196 pages

In The Inflation Myth and the Wonderful World of Deflation, Mark Mobius embarks on a journey that might just prove everything we conventionally know about inflation wrong, presenting a thought-provoking narrative that questions the very foundations of our economic understanding.

In a world marked by rapid technological advancements, Mobius contends that our traditional metrics for measuring inflation are no longer adequate, urging readers to reconsider long-held beliefs about the economic phenomenon.

Mobius explorates of the shifting landscape of technological innovation driving the creation of cheaper and superior products. The heart of his argument lies in the assertion that these transformative changes are not accurately reflected in the ways we currently measure inflation. The book boldly contends that our contemporary understanding of inflation is nothing short of a myth.

One of the book’s standout features is its illumination of the political dimensions of inflation measurement. Mobius exposes the unsettling reality of governments manipulating and exploiting inflation figures to align with their economic agendas. He delves into the extreme challenges involved in gathering accurate data for inflation measurement, highlighting the inherent inaccuracies that result from these endeavors.

A crucial point of contention raised by Mobius is the fallacy of relying on currencies as a measure of inflation when these very currencies are continually being debased by the governments that issue them. This revelation challenges readers to reconsider the reliability of traditional economic indicators and prompts a deeper examination of the intricate relationship between currency devaluation and inflation.

Most significantly, Mobius underscores the impact of technological advancements and automation on the continuously falling costs of goods and services. The book articulates how these advances contribute to a deflationary trend, contrary to the prevailing narrative of perpetual inflation. Through compelling arguments and well-supported evidence, Mobius encourages readers to recognize the transformative power of technology in reshaping our economic landscape.

Mark Mobius, The Inflation Myth and the Wonderful World of Deflation (Wiley, 2020) ISBN: 978-1-119-74142-8, 256 Pages

Another important myth-busting source is We Need to Talk About Inflation: 14 Urgent Lessons from the Last 2,000 Years. In the book, economist Stephen D. King delivers a compelling exploration of the resurgence of inflation, exposing the desperate gullibility of central bankers, finance ministers, and the collective failure to learn from historical lessons. The book dismantles the widespread assumption that inflation was a relic of the past, revealing a new economic reality that threatens to exacerbate wealth inequality on a global scale.

In a world where investors, monetary authorities, governments, and policy makers had collectively believed inflation to be a thing of the past, King highlights the startling emergence of a poisonous economic reality. This new reality brings with it the ominous specter of increasing wealth inequality, forcing individuals worldwide to confront the profound implications of this unforeseen turn of events.

King, having been among the few to sound the alarm ahead of the latest inflationary upheaval, delves into the roots of the current situation. We Need to Talk About Inflation becomes a beacon, shedding light on the key lessons from history that policy makers either ignored or chose not to heed. From the days of ancient Rome through the American Civil War and up to the asset bubbles of today, King traces the common threads of inflation, attributing its resurgence to policy errors, sovereign greed, and a collective loss of faith in currencies.

The book stands as a sobering reminder that the economic challenges we face today are not unprecedented; they are deeply rooted in a historical continuum of bad judgment and misunderstanding. We Need to Talk About Inflation serves as a crucial intervention, cutting through centuries of oversight and misinformation to offer actionable insights that can be implemented now.

Stephen D. King, We Need to Talk About Inflation: 14 Urgent Lessons from the Last 2,000 Years (Yale University Press, 2023) ISBN: 9780300270471, 240 pages

Paul Mattick’s The Return of Inflation: Money and Capital in the 21st Century emerges as both a historical retrospective and a contemporary analysis, offering a profound examination of what is undeniably the defining economic concern of our time.

Mattick’s work delves into the surprise surge in price increases. Amidst the varying perspectives on the current economic landscape, there is unanimous agreement on one aspect: the imperative to curb inflation, even if the methods to achieve this goal are a subject of contention.

The Return of Inflation distinguishes itself by placing contemporary events within the broader context of capitalism’s history. Mattick skillfully entwines the past and the present, providing readers with a comprehensive understanding of the economic forces at play. An exploration into the nature of money serves as a foundational element of the book, offering readers a concise and jargon-free grasp of recent inflation trends and the strategies implemented to manage them.

What sets this book apart is its ability to demystify the complexities surrounding inflation. Mattick takes the reader on a journey through the historical antecedents of inflation, shedding light on the evolving dynamics of the economy. Through this lens, the book illuminates the state of our contemporary economic landscape, offering insights that bridge the gap between past and present.

Mattick’s insightful exploration provides a nuanced perspective on the current economic challenges and offers a valuable resource for those seeking clarity on the defining economic concern of our time.

Paul Mattick, The Return of Inflation: Money and Capital in the 21st Century (Reaktion Books, 2023) ISBN: 9781789147919, 184 pages

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n an era marked by unprecedented global challenges, few issues resonate as profoundly as the quest for food security. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the grain shortage that followed showcased the grave vulnerability of existing systems. The imperative of ensuring that everyone, everywhere has access to safe, sufficient, and nutritious food looms large on the global stage. This month’s book bundle presents a curated selection of books that delve into food security, examining it from multiple angles, and offering insights, strategies, and solutions.

From the intricacies of international trade policies to the sustainability of food systems, and from the impacts of geopolitical conflicts to the strategic place of food, these books provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities in the realm of global food security.

Whether you are a policymaker, researcher, student, or simply a concerned global citizen, this collection provides valuable resources for understanding, navigating, and contributing to the discourse on global food security.

Food Security: Availability, Income and Productivity is a pertinent book that explores the pressing issue of global food security as our world population continues to grow. The author focuses on three key conditions necessary to achieve food security: food availability, adequate incomes, and increased agricultural productivity.

The book draws insights from history and contemporary contexts to thoroughly examine these conditions. It takes a close look at the obstacles preventing consistent food availability and discusses how to overcome these challenges. It also delves into the importance of ensuring sufficient incomes, highlighting programs like food stamps and food banks. Furthermore, the book provides valuable insights into the factors driving enhanced agricultural productivity.

Food Security caters to a broad audience, including agricultural experts, policymakers, and NGOs working in food aid. It’s also a valuable resource for students studying agriculture and public policy. The book not only informs but also encourages critical thinking about the complex task of feeding a projected nine billion people by 2050.

In a world where food scarcity is becoming increasingly worrisome, this book offers essential insights into the intricate web of food security. It provides a well-reasoned analysis that will contribute to ongoing discussions and efforts aimed at ensuring a sustainable food future for everyone.

William A. Kerr, Food Security: Availability, Income and Productivity (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2023) ISBN: 978 1 03531 270 2, 234 pages

Shadow Negotiators: How UN Organizations Shape the Rules of World Trade for Food Security by Matias E. Margulis is a groundbreaking exploration of the influence exerted by United Nations (UN) organizations within the World Trade Organization (WTO) despite their absence from the formal negotiation table. Margulis introduces the concept of “shadow negotiators,” illustrating how UN bodies strategically engage in political actions to shape multilateral trade negotiations.

The book’s primary focus is on the contentious issue of agricultural trade liberalization. It provides a detailed analysis of interventions by four UN organizations: the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), and the Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food (SRRTF).

Margulis unveils the innovative strategies these UN entities employ to influence global trade regulations. Importantly, he emphasizes that their motivation isn’t rooted in competition with the WTO or ideological opposition to trade liberalization. Instead, it stems from their concern that certain trade rules could negatively impact global food security, running counter to their core mission of addressing world hunger and safeguarding the right to food.

Shadow Negotiators is a meticulously researched work that offers fresh insights into the often-unseen dynamics of international trade. It’s essential reading for those interested in the intersection of trade policy and global welfare, making a valuable contribution to the field of international relations and trade studies.

Matias E. Margulis, Shadow Negotiators: How UN Organizations Shape the Rules of World Trade for Food Security (Stanford University Press, 2023) ISBN: 9781503633520, 292 pages

Universal Food Security: How to End Hunger While Protecting the Planet by Glenn Denning explores the path towards a world where hunger and malnutrition are eradicated, and everyone can access healthy and abundant food for a productive life. The book emphasizes the need to transform our food systems, focusing on sustainability and environmental restoration, from production to distribution.

Denning, drawing from his extensive experience in over fifty countries, offers a practical guide to making healthy diets accessible to all while ensuring sustainability. He identifies key priorities, including sustainable agriculture intensification, robust market infrastructure, responsible postharvest practices, promoting healthy eating, and establishing social safety nets. The book underscores the pivotal role of practitioner-leaders in driving this transformation, highlighting the importance of education and development in instigating change.

But beyond the roadmap, Denning reminds us that the engine driving this transformation is practitioner-leadership, underscored by education and development. This book stands as a testament to the potential for meaningful change when individuals and institutions commit to reshaping our world, making universal food security not merely a dream but a tangible and sustainable reality.

Glenn Denning, Universal Food Security: How to End Hunger While Protecting the Planet (Columbia University Press, 2023) ISBN: 9780231197618, 448 pages

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Global Food Security explores the global food security implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which occurred during a period of already high food prices due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The book highlights the importance of the Black Sea region for global food production and Russia’s role in supplying natural gas and fertilizers.

The potential disruption of trade in this region posed a significant threat, with the potential to raise food prices and worsen poverty and hunger in vulnerable countries. The conflict primarily impacted trade in cereals and vegetable oils, fertilizer exports, and energy costs, potentially pushing millions into hunger and poverty.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) responded swiftly by providing information and policy advice. They established a blog series and online resources to disseminate critical information rapidly. This book compiles these blog posts, offering an overview of the crisis’s progression, international responses, and lessons for ensuring food security in the wake of disruptions.

This book provides essential insights into a rapidly evolving crisis with far-reaching implications for global food security, making it valuable for policymakers and researchers.

Joseph W. Glauber, Ed. and David Laborde Debucquet. Ed., The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Global Food Security (IFPRI, 2023) ISBN: 9780896294394, 196 pages

Bread and Autocracy: Food, Politics, and Security in Putin’s Russia offers a compelling analysis of the pivotal role food has played in Russian politics from the 1917 Revolution to the present under Putin’s leadership. The authors, Janetta Azarieva, Yitzhak M. Brudny, and Eugene Finkel, argue that Russia’s transition from a grain importer to a global food exporter was a deliberate, long-term strategy aimed at enhancing national security and regime stability. This focus on food self-sufficiency sets Russia apart from other autocracies, as it prioritizes domestic food production over imports, highlighting its significance in maintaining autocratic rule.

The book’s relevance is heightened in today’s world, where food issues are once again at the forefront of global concerns and nations are emphasizing self-reliance. Bread and Autocracy provides a timely and comprehensive exploration of Russia’s unique approach to food politics, shedding light on its implications for both domestic and international affairs. It is a valuable read for those seeking a deeper understanding of Russia’s distinctive stance on food and its impact on political power. The book will be available in hardcover on September 1, 2023.

Janetta Azarieva, Yitzhak M. Brudny, and Eugene Finkel, Bread and Autocracy: Food, Politics, and Security in Putin’s Russia (Oxford University Press, 2023) ISBN: 9780197684368, 525 pages

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ow have we arrived at an era of easy money? What role do central banks play and how has their relationship with finance changed over the years? Do central banks offer more stability to avoid crises? How is the rise of central banks more problematic than expected? Leon Wansleben provides answers in his new book.

When so much has been written about central banks, one might question what there is more to know. Wansleben goes over previously ignored original sources in extensive archival work and interviews for his research to uncover the practices of central banking, its relationship with finance, and accounts of the origin and consequences of the dominance of central banks in economic policy.

For a long time central banks mattered as managers of the international currency order, but they were not the key movers and centers of power. That began to change in the 1970s with the rising inflation, and since then central banks have greatly increased their influence. In The Rise of Central Banks: State Power in Financial Capitalism, Wansleben provides a history and explanation of this rise and why it matters.

Central banks have been expected to be beacons of stability, and in the 1990s and 2010s, they assumed even larger responsibilities. However, global finance has experienced many rocky turns and crises over the years; the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic being two major ones ingrained in our memory. What seems to be going wrong with the equation?

Could central banks’ policies be counterintuitively destabilizing? It turns out, yes. As central banks became dominant, their policy innovations allowed them to use privileged relationships with expanding financial markets to govern the economy. But, by relying on markets, central banks fostered excessive credit growth and cultivated an unsustainable version of capitalism.

How has this change occurred? Many commentators argue that ideas, mainly concerned with controlling inflation, drove change and shifted economics from Keynesianism to monetarism. Others point to the stagflation crises, which saw capitalists and workers in dispute, redistributing power from elected governments to markets and central banks as capitalists pushed deregulation and disinflation. Central banks became the advocates and executers of “hard money” policies.

Wansleben looks introspectively within the central banks themselves, as they are both bureaucratic bodies and banking organizations that operate in private markets, and combines these approaches with the evolving practices of central banking to explain how we arrived at an era of excessive finance. He compares developments in the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and Switzerland to find that central bankers’ policy innovations were an important ingredient of change.

The Rise of Central Banks provides a political economy and sociological perspective on how bureaucrats innovate tools, how these tools are woven into the fabrics of economic structures and generate infrastructural power for particular state organizations, and how such intertwinements produce both intended and unintended effects. The Rise of Central Banks shines light on the agency of bureaucrats and calls upon society and elected leaders to direct these actors’ efforts toward more progressive goals.

Leon Wansleben, The Rise of Central Banks: State Power in Financial Capitalism (Harvard University Press, 2023) ISBN 9780674270510, 352 pages

The saying “Money makes the world go round” takes a more powerful meaning in a globalized capitalist economy. But what happens when the ones at the very top of the money chain are corrupted? In this month’s book bundle, we share with you three books that explore the influence of the rich and powerful, discuss how the world really goes round, and expose the staggering cases of how corruption hides itself often in plain sight with its effects rippling into the depth of systems, societies, and the lives of each one of us.

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he COVID19 pandemic revealed to many an eye-opening trend of wealth centralization: the rich are getting richer, and governments around the world are hardly able to protect those who are most vulnerable from the detrimental economic and social effects of a crisis. Who is the culprit?

The New York Times‘s award-winning global economics journalist Peter S. Goodman presents a page-turning exposé of the global billionaire class, the “Davos Man,” and its hostile takeover of the world. Davos Man documents billionaires’ exploitation of the COVID19 pandemic, which turned “taxpayer-financed bailout packages into corporate welfare schemes.” This global billionaire class instrumentalized its power to conceal the truth by hiring lobbyists, PR managers, and journalists in media.

Furthermore, Goodman uncovers the concealed impacts of their oligarchic control reaching into every branch of society and modern life, from wages to housing, healthcare to everyday products and taxation. He argues that their systematic plunder ultimately destabilized democracy by widening wealth inequality, leaving governing systems vulnerable, and triggering the rise of anti-democratic nationalism. He provides the answer to the problem of wider context: how did the liberal democratic order become a breeding ground for the right-wing hate?

Goodman not only provides a vividly written description of the realm of the ultra-rich but more importantly the realities of those who are dissipated by their appropriation all around the world including accounts from a blue-collar worker in Buenos Aires, a Bangladeshi migrant in Qatar, a doctor in Seattle during the COVID19 pandemic, an African immigrant in Sweden, a textile manufacturer in Italy, and an Amazon warehouse employee in New York City. Davos Man is a must-read for those concerned about inequality, economic justice, the resilience of societies, democracy, and the great challenges of our time.

Peter S. Goodman, Davos Man: How the Billionaires Devoured the World (Custom House 2022) ISBN: 9780063078314, 472 pages

The anonymous leak of the Panama Papers in 2016 revealed millions of financial and legal documents that show how ultra-high-net-worth individuals hide their money using complex webs of offshore vehicles. How were these structures set and who plays a role?

Spiderweb Capitalism uncovers the shadow economy and the mechanics behind the illicit movement of wealth across borders through the invisible, complex networks of lawyers, accountants, company secretaries, and fixers.

Sociologist Kimberly Kay Hoang traveled the globe to follow the money through a web-like supersystem and conducted hundreds of in-depth interviews with these ultra-high-net-worth individuals, private wealth managers, fund managers, entrepreneurs, C-suite executives, bankers, auditors, and other financial professionals to find an answer.

Hoang reveals the strategies behind spiderweb capitalism and examines the moral dilemmas of making money in legal, financial, and political gray zones as she traces the flow of capital from offshore funds in places like the Cayman Islands, Samoa, and Panama to special-purpose vehicles and holding companies in Singapore and Hong Kong and risky markets in Vietnam and Myanmar. How are these smaller markets interconnected in a broader system of global capitalism?

Spiderweb Capitalism sheds critical light on how global elites capitalize on risky frontier markets.  Hoang argues that spiderweb capitalism explains the rapid rise of foreign capital in risky markets with low levels of trust and cooperation. Economic growth in such markets is a consequence of tightly embedded relations between the economic elite and political elites that result in a variety of corruptions.

Contrary to the “economic mantra that development can only occur in economies with a strong rule of law,” Spiderweb Capitalism shows a paradox of global economic growth sustained through states where the line separating the legal from the corrupt is not always clear. Hoang’s research further reveals that old paradigms like First World/Third World and Global North/Global South are no longer useful for framing the global economy.

Spiderweb Capitalism is a unique and worthwhile read, not only uncovering the dynamics of a global system of corruption but also the sociological backgrounds of playing in the grey.

Kimberly Kay Hoang, Spiderweb Capitalism: How Global Elites Exploit Frontier Markets (Princeton University Press 2022) ISBN: 9780691229119, 288 pages

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n Philanthrocapitalism and the Erosion of Democracy, activist Dr. Vandana Shiva compiles essays and articles from more than 20 authors and organizations to show how ruthless capitalistic exploitation branded as philanthropic altruism forges a direct path to global destruction. According to David Orr, philanthrocapitalists are those who “promise to solve hunger, disease, poverty, and a rapidly destabilizing climate often by selling us more of the same things that made them very rich,” which oftentimes ignores the root causes and inequities.

How do global capitalists wield philanthropy to monopolize and privatize land use, food production, and the public health sector effectively? Through various initiatives, suborganizations, development schemes, and funding mechanisms. The book points out that the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s empire, in particular, is an intricate network of power and influence solidified by targeted and well-financed PR campaigns to shape public opinion in pursuit of profit and market expansion.

Philanthrocapitalism and the Erosion of Democracy criticizes the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and similar organizations’ many privileged relationships with private companies, governments, and the World Health Organization that allow them exclusively to set the global agenda on health. The book argues that simplified solutions based on technical and scientific developments introduced by these organizations are often narrow in scope and remain insufficient in solving complex problems. Furthermore, they corrode the integrity of democratic institutions guised under a banner of future-oriented innovation.

Philanthrocapitalism and the Erosion of Democracy reveals the destructive power of overly capitalistic systems that enable mass human suffering and environmental catastrophe via the entanglement of private investment and public policy, and aims to bring forward democratic discussions about transparency, accountability, and inclusivity.

Vandana Shiva, Philanthrocapitalism and the Erosion of Democracy: A Global Citizen’s Report on the Corporate Control of Technology, Health, and Agriculture (Synergetic Press 2022) ISBN: 9780907791911, 240 pages

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The controversial decision by the OPEC Plus group to slash oil production by two million barrels per day amid the painful global energy crisis and the United States’ attempts to dissuade it have sparked heated reactions and repercussions for Saudi Arabia and the United States. Saudi Arabia is routinely accused of weaponizing oil in its foreign policy; this time it is said to be doing so in order to influence Biden’s midterm elections and consolidate Putin’s gamble in Ukraine.

In this context, Saudi Arabia appears to be behaving like Russia, using oil to gain leverage over the West and back Russia, which is losing ground on all fronts. As per Western estimates, if Europe abandons its reliance on Russian gas to prevent a similar future scenario, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC would replace it in covering future energy resource shortfalls. Yet, with the disappointing OPEC Plus decision, this hope began dissipating.

Although the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement justified the consensual decision and tried to dispel doubts about its politicization, Washington’s reactions ranged from warning to hinting at a reassessment of relations with Riyadh. According to National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby, President Joe Biden is considering reevaluating the U.S.-Saudi partnership, and the president himself said in an interview with CNN that this would have consequences.

Consequences?

Exactly what these consequences might be is not clear, but most likely they might take the form of a halt in arms sales to Saudi Arabia, notably the 300 MIM-104E Patriot missile system to counter ballistic and long-range cruise missiles. Senator Chris Murphy tweeted on what the U.S. should do in response to the OPEC issue in the short term, including shifting the scheduled AMRAAM air-to-air missile deal from Saudi Arabia to Ukraine and removing the remaining Patriot anti-missile batteries. Furthermore, following the Saudi-led OPEC Plus decision, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez urged an immediate freeze of cooperation with Saudi Arabia.

For Washington, this action is a political cross-cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia in an economic guise. Reducing the oil cartels contributes to the recovery of Moscow’s dilapidated economy after its war in Ukraine, and unseating President Biden and the Democrats in the November midterm elections. For Saudi Arabia, Washington’s escalation is just an ideal reflection of Democrats’ and President Biden’s stances on Saudi Arabia, as well as the accumulation of past files such as the Jamal Khashoggi case, human rights, and the Yemen war.

The Saudis’ stalemate with Democrats is mainly due to myopic perceptions of local and regional dynamics of the latter from President Obama’s tenure during the Arab Spring to President Biden, who once labeled Saudi Arabia as a pariah state. Since the outset of his election campaign, President Biden has appeared to be at odds with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the Khashoggi case and the Yemen war. Yet, despite Mohammed bin Salman’s bold steps toward social and cultural modernization of Saudi Arabia following decades of scathing Western criticism of the kingdom as a breeding site for extremism, this does not seem to satisfy Washington.

A blow to regional normalization

Beyond that, the decision came as a blow to endeavors to continue normalizing regional relations, which included restoring U.S.-Saudi relations following President Biden’s July visit to the region and Riyadh. Also, the visit sought to discuss energy issues in light of the Ukrainian war and put forward the idea of building a regional alliance that includes Israel to confront Iran. All of this represented two successive disappointments for Biden: the first being when he returned from Riyadh empty-handed and failed to pressure and persuade Saudis to postpone the OPEC Plus decision until the end of the midterm elections in November.

Indeed, the eight-decade U.S.-Saudi partnership based on the oil-for-security equation has become questionable: the United States’ pivot away from the Middle East and its growing shale oil output reduce the value of relations with Riyadh, while Saudi Arabia’s view of waning American hegemony and the rising powers of China and Russia calls for the evaluation and diversity of its allies.

The politicization of oil and security has become a popular cliché in explaining the trajectories of the U.S.-Saudi relationship. In two historical instances, Saudi Arabia exploited oil to settle scores in international affairs. On October 17, 1973, Saudi Arabia joined the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) in imposing an oil embargo on all countries that supported Israel in the 1973 war against Egypt and Syria. The second instance occurred when Saudi Arabia raised oil output during the Gulf crisis to topple Iraq’s economy.

In contrast, by backing the OPEC Plus decision, Saudi Arabia appears to be hedging its bets to minimize the risks of allying with the West against Russia while maximizing economic gains. Nevertheless, this strategy is vulnerable to negative consequences and may worsen in the future. By seeking autonomy in foreign policy decision-making, the Saudis’ attitude and rhetoric in this matter suggest that to some extent it was acceptable to them for the U.S. to intervene in their domestic affairs under the pretext of human rights but this is not the case for meddling in economic and foreign policy decisions.

With the OPEC Plus decision, Saudi Arabia’s hedging lies in two assumptions. Economically, reducing crude oil production would enrich the Saudi budget needed to finance Vision 2030 projects and compensate for the financial deficit that the military campaign in Yemen has drained over the past seven years. Politically, Saudi Arabia wants to signal two messages. First, it wants to seize the opportunity to stand with Russia in the face of international isolation in order to yield an iconic position in their future relationship, to win Russia over to its side within the premise of diversification of alliances, and to entice it to veer away from Iran.

At the same time, just a few days following the OPEC Plus decision, Saudi Arabia pledged to provide $400 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, not to mention the will to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv. Second, Saudi Arabia wants to send a moral message to its Western allies about the double standard of dealing with threats faced by allies by standing firm in backing Ukraine against Russia while the West has been hesitant to do the same for Saudi Arabia in its fight against Iran in Yemen and elsewhere.

With the Ukrainian ports blocked for three months, the “bread wars” began in Africa. States whose food supply security depends on imports are nowadays facing similar situations even more so as they face the worst food crisis in living memory. Many of them predictably hope Russian President Vladimir Putin will soon reach an agreement with Ukraine to stop the war and prevent the food crisis.

The Russian leader is accused of blocking exits from major Ukrainian ports since the beginning of the war and has been asked by the West to remove barriers hindering access to ports in order to resume the export of Ukrainian grain to the rest of the world. Approximately 15 million tons of grain are reportedly blocked in the ports of Ukraine, which currently accounts for nearly 10 percent of the world’s wheat trade. The war has interrupted international shipment of wheat, causing acute famines and increasing prices globally.

According to the report by the World Food Program released in early June 2022, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has forced more than 20 million people in Africa to suffer acute food shortages. With the start of the war, the situation worsened when, the Port of Odessa, the main port for agricultural exports, was blocked by Russian troops. The report warns that if emergency aid is not provided to several countries in Africa, the region will enter a further stage of famine. While the number of people suffering from hunger has quadrupled in the last two years in Kenya, more than 700,000 people in Ethiopia need urgent food aid every day.

Recent developments

Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the food supply security crisis was eminently in the making due to climate change and the COVID19 pandemic. Now, the grain crisis and states’ protectionist self-sufficiency policies rub salt into the wound.

Ukraine’s wheat export is interrupted by Russia. China, which has 51 percent of the world’s wheat stock, increased its own stocks by 20 percent. The world production of wheat increased  by 8 percent (from 732 to 790 million tons) in the last four years but, at the same time, stopped its wheat export.

The picture is not entirely that grim. The outlook for global food supply remains positive. But the food prices have risen sharply due to higher shipping costs and trade cuts because of the war, as well as the rising import of inputs such as fertilizer prices and thus import bills. This affects the world’s poorest countries and developing countries the most.

Food prices have been high before, and the war is driving food prices even higher. The most affected commodities are wheat, corn, edible oils, and fertilizers. Global commodity markets face upside risks from reduced grain supply, higher energy prices, higher fertilizer prices, and disruption to trade due to the closure of major seaports such as Pivdennyi, Odessa, Mykolaiv, and Chornomorsk, which account for about 80% of the total throughput of Ukrainian seaports.

After the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, trade interventions by countries increased. From January to early June 2022, 268 policy measures were announced and implemented by 75 countries. The number of policies regarding food and fertilizers stood at 85 percent of trade interventions, while the percentage of policies regarding raw materials and fuels stood at 15 percent.

Globally, hunger levels continue to rise at an alarming rate, with close to 193 million people reportedly having experienced severe food insecurity in 2021. According to the Global Report on Food Crises, it is predicted that by the end of 2022, all figures will be exceeded, and approximately 40 million more people will suffer from food insecurity compared to 2020. Surveys recently conducted in 83 countries to detect the effects of the recent food crises show that a significant number of people run out of food or already reduced their consumption in the first two years of the COVID19 outbreak.

Russian position

Russia and the West play a blame game over the export of Ukrainian grain. Putin announced that Russia does not prevent grain exports from Ukraine claiming that those exports can be made through ports on the Black Sea and neighboring countries, putting the blame on the West, which claims that Russia blocks exports from Ukraine.

Putin noted that there are several ways to export grain to the Danube River and then Romania, Hungary, and Poland via the Ukrainian-controlled ports of Berdyansk and Mariupol. He also called for “clearing” the waters of mines around the ports held by Ukraine, saying that the ports under the control of Kiev, especially Odessa, could also be used. However, he added that the simplest, easiest, and cheapest way to transport agricultural and food products to the Baltic ports is by exporting them through Belarus and from there to any part of the world. But, he added, exports via Belarus would be conditional on the West “lifting sanctions” against Minsk.

As the Russia-Ukraine war entered its fourth month, Ukrainian officials accused Russia of obstructing exports, claiming that Putin’s forces had already stolen 500,000 tons of grain. Alerted by possible food shortages, several Western countries urged Moscow to stop its military offensive.

On the other hand, UN Secretary-General’s spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said that he is trying to reach a “package deal” to restart Ukraine’s food exports and Russia’s food and fertilizer exports, adding that the situation is volatile. Dujarric also said that with the Secretary General and UN staff, they will go wherever is needed to finalize this project.

United States’ position

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said the Biden administration supports Russian grain and fertilizer shipments to address growing global food insecurity caused by the war in Ukraine. He said there were no U.S. sanctions on Russia’s grain and fertilizer shipments, but that companies were backing down because they were “a little nervous.”

It has been stated that the United States is ready to issue “letters of relief” to grain and fertilizer exporters and insurance companies to get much-needed agricultural products out of Russia. The U.S. supports the UN’s efforts to allow grain exports from Ukraine by train and via the Black Sea, as well as to ensure the unrestricted access of Russian food and fertilizers to global markets.

Turkey’s role in opening ports

Around 30 percent of the wheat traded across the world is produced in Russia and Ukraine. Dozens of container ships are stranded in Ukrainian ports, surrounded by Russian forces and protected by mines, preventing the transfer of wheat, sunflower oil, and other goods, as well as agricultural fertilizers.

President Putin reiterated to President Erdoğan that the Kremlin would support “unhindered” exports of Ukrainian grain from ports, but demanded the lifting of the Western embargo on Moscow in return. The meeting between the Turkish and Russian leaders reveals that Russia is ready to export large amounts of fertilizers and agricultural products if the Western sanctions are lifted.

A microbe, causing political instability, inflation, and even insurrections around the world seems somewhat of a stretch—more like a sci-fi thriller plot, than reality. If it only were the case!

For one, disease outbreaks may worsen pre-existing tensions within a society, as happened in the second cholera pandemic in France. The poor suspected the elite of poisoning them while the rich accused the poor neighborhoods of being the breeding grounds for the infection. The subsequent insurrection, known as the Paris Uprising of 1832, wounded or killed about 800 people.

Civil unrest spread to other countries, including England, Ireland, and Prussia, and in Russia, the disturbances came to be known as the Cholera Riots. Indeed, social scientists have noted that disease, unrest, and war, co-occur in a pattern.

Alarmingly, the makings of similar crises are all present now. Rising prices, food shortages, and famines, in the present day, do not just happen on far-off islands of poverty, leaving the powerful unscathed. They are already bringing down governments and becoming a political force to be reckoned with. Here’s how it all connects.

The war in Ukraine and the global food crisis

Food prices saw a rise due to the pandemic on account of logistical disruptions affecting supply and a sharp economic recovery that increased demand, themes I covered in an earlier article. But the lion’s share of the current food inflation is a direct consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. War has meant more problems for farmers. Ukraine is unable to export grains on account of the blockade, and prices of some inputs like fertilizers, of which Ukraine and Russia are major exporters, are rising.

This is a war between the geographically largest country in Europe (Ukraine) and the geographically largest country in the world (Russia), and given the abundance of fertile land, especially the area’s amazingly productive “black earth,” these two giants are among the world’s top grain exporters.

As supply is disrupted, wheat, corn, and edible oil prices are rising. Already, global food prices are 57 percent higher now than a year earlier.

This is especially concerning for the extremely poor, i.e., those living on $1.90 a day or less. Food expenditure takes up approximately two-thirds of their income. This means, even in normal times, they’re able to spend only $1.25 on food a day. Soaring food prices pose a tough choice for the poor: eat food of less than $1.25 cost or reduce consumption of other necessities like medicine to below 63 cents.

Sensing trouble, India had banned wheat exports, while Indonesia had stopped all exports of palm oil. The policy attracted criticism abroad as international prices surged while causing uproar by farmers at home, as domestic prices plummeted. Faced with criticism, both countries have eased the restrictions, but the episode shows how panic about food security in a country can spontaneously trigger an international crisis, especially endangering the food-importing countries.

Riots, violent protests, and the rising challenge for governments

Already, people are getting increasingly frustrated and governments around the world are having to take the heat.

In Sri Lanka, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa had to resign, after violent protests against inflation. Unsustainable dollar-denominated debt, worsened by the free fall of the tourism-dependent Sri Lankan rupee, left the government, which has now defaulted, in a tight spot.

Food inflation in Sri Lanka reached 57.4 percent in May and may worsen with a further fall of the rupee, which has already depreciated by a staggering 80 percent since March. The spokesperson for the UN humanitarian agency Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned of Sri Lanka being on the verge of a “full-blown humanitarian emergency,” as it faces severe shortages of food, fuel, and medicine. The government is now trying a 4-day work week to help manage fuel and food shortages, by encouraging people to stay home and “engage in agricultural activities.”

Meanwhile, Pakistan has seen the fall of the popular government of Imran Khan, which despite handling the pandemic rather well, couldn’t really get a handle on inflation. Allies in Khan’s coalition government, sensing the pulse of the public—some say, of the powerful military—jumped ship.

Yet, the new Shahbaz Sharif-led coalition government, which led “End Inflation March” weeks before coming to power, is having a tough time finding its feet. The rupee depreciated by more than 13 percent in about two months and the inflation trajectory has considerably worsened since the new government took charge. In an effort to resume the stalled IMF program, the petrol price has risen by 56 percent and high speed diesel by a whopping 83 percent in just 20 days.

Peru, meanwhile, saw violent protests against inflation in which at least six people died demanding President Castillo’s resignation. Argentina, where inflation reached 58% in April 2022, is similarly seeing protests. The IMF has warned that Latin American countries could face social unrest if immediate measures to help the poor are not taken.

Even relatively stable, high-income countries, with many more resources to tackle inflation at their disposal, have seen growing dissent. The approval rating for Joe Biden in the U.S. has been continuously falling, as gasoline prices have crossed $5 per gallon in a historic first. In the UK, Boris Johnson survived the vote-of-no-confidence recently, but his popularity has seen a sharp decline. Meanwhile, in Australia, Scott Morrison lost elections to Anthony Albanese, in a contest where the economy and inflation featured prominently.

Leaders need to act now, any government could be next

The economic squeeze faced by people as a result of the pandemic is getting worse by the day due to the added effects of the Russian war. Some accuse Russia of using war-inflicted inflation and the threat of hunger as a bargaining chip. Russia, on the other hand, blames the Ukrainian mines in the defending country’s ports, and an array of sanctions on Russia that have increased the costs of trade and are responsible for inflation.

Whatever the actual share of responsibility for the crisis is between Ukraine and Russia, what’s clear is that soaring living costs are threatening livelihoods, as men of power struggle to sort their egos out.

This war needs to end. But until that happens, governments urgently need to introduce policies to protect the vulnerable. If the wounds of the hapless are allowed to simmer, the resulting chaos will bring more than just the poor down, if history is any guide. Time is running out.

As of mid-2022, the price of money and the cost of borrowing are increasing again in many advanced economies. Decades of ultra-loose monetary policy and cheap (close to zero or even negative cost) money has come to a new end. The United States, the UK, Canada (even Australia and New Zealand), and to a limited extent the Eurozone, are increasing interest rates.

For example, the Fed and BoE (Bank of England) are fast increasing their benchmark rates. The Fed first increased its key interest rate by 25 bps in March 2022, then embarked on a 50 bps increase in May. Finally, in June 2022, there was another 75 bps raise (to the 1.50-1.75 percent range). This 75 bps hike was, meanwhile, the Fed’s highest rate rise in the past 28 years (since 1994). The BOE on the other hand, have so far raised rates during the past four meetings (policy rate rose to 1 percent). The ECB (European Central Bank) is taking a rather moderate approach. They are expected to raise the policy rate in July (by a quarter percent), the first rise since 2011.

Global rate gaps have also been rising lately, both between the advanced economies (AEs) and developing economies (DEs), and also amongst the AEs. From neutral to negative and to the substantially positive rate rises, global rate paths are diverging. Markets are, in a way, swinging between the tightening cycle in the West and the loosening cycle in the East.

The Euro area and the UK are more exposed to the recent energy crisis and the war in Ukraine. Diverse economic dynamics and differing policy approaches among the ECB members also make the decisions and policy approaches rather more colorful in Europe. (Fig. 1) So, the tightening cycle is expected to be more moderate compared to that in the U.S.

It should meanwhile be underlined that strong national currencies (in the AEs) are mainly used to fight high inflation and keep prices stable. In that sense, the focus of central banks in the AEs is primarily over nominal factors, predominantly focusing on bringing down the inflation rate. On the other hand, central banks in most DEs and even Japan focus on real targets such as encouraging growth and increasing employment.

Meanwhile, Japan, China, Russia, and Turkey are keeping their easing stance. For example, in China, recent restrictions and lockdowns as well as the weak property market activity have all led to interest rate declines (a recent 10 bps decline to 3.7 percent). Banks are encouraged to lower borrowing rates. Mortgage rates in China were also recently cut by the highest rate on record.

Under normal circumstances, a strong USD would be expected to positively affect the developing economies and their exports. However, in particular, the rapid surge in value of the USD has also potential huge risks for the global economy. In the meantime, the U.S. inflation has also resumed a new acceleration trend in May.

Inflationary effects of weak national currencies should be noted first. Imported good and service prices, energy and commodity prices would all push the prices up in countries where national currencies depreciate. Therefore, cost of living will surely go up in the rest of the world. For example, Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy and weak yen are expected to increase inflation expectations.

In addition to the rising dollar price, increasing energy, food, and fertilizer prices would also mean higher import bills and higher cost of production. Hence a higher producer inflation.

Capital is also likely to flow into tightening economies such as the U.S. and its financial markets. That means capital outflow from the developing economies. Therefore, financial stability is likely to be negatively impacted by the capital flight from the DEs. Increasing financial volatility would mean higher exchange rate volatilities and amplified current account deficits.

Investments and capital inflows into emerging markets (EMs) will also fall. The risk of investments into EMs would be rising. More specifically, developing countries already struggling may face further financial difficulties looking forward.

In today’s ever-integrated global economy, huge financial capital flows also lead to monetary policy transmissions into the other developing economies. For instance, many Latin American economies, including Brazil and Mexico, have already started a tightening cycle in 2021.

Emerging economies with huge debt denominated in US dollars are also likely to be negatively impacted. Both sovereign and corporate dollar-denominated debt is at enormous sizes today. Real debt burden, in particular, foreign currency-denominated debt burden will increase. Hence, cost of borrowing and financial instability will both rise again.

Cost of external finances, that is the credit default swap (CDS) and risk premiums paid will be higher for the DEs. A strong U.S. dollar (and capital inflow into the U.S. markets) makes access to financial capital much more difficult and more expensive for individuals and businesses outside the U.S. Global financial conditions, and access to credit markets will tighten.

A strong U.S. dollar may also bring up debates regarding reverse currency wars, as the U.S. dollar appreciates along with aggressive rate rises. After all, the post-Great Recession and post-2020 pandemic quantitative easing (QE) policies of the AEs brought forth a new currency war argument.

Another critical issue is that the world, including the AEs, should be careful not to fall into another round of recession while dealing with the global inflation. After all, nowadays, there is a huge concern that the Fed’s hawkish stance might mitigate economic growth, and even lead to economic decline and stock market crashes.

Meanwhile, it is still not clear whether this new strong USD trend will lead to another round of trade war, due to increasing U.S. trade deficits.

Greater borrowing cost divergence even within the Western economies is another potential issue. While the Fed is even expected to take a “restrictive” stance if inflation proves stickier, the European Central Bank may have to hit the brakes if sovereign borrowing spreads seem to widen.

For the fifth year in a row, the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence issued the “AI Index” to measure the “contemporary trends of AI” as an independent initiative led by the AI Index Steering Committee, a multidisciplinary group consisting of a variety of experts from diverse academic and industry backgrounds. The value of the AI Index is derived from insights gained from data analysis on a large scale.

The index makes use of data inputs, and processes them into useful insights reported in the form of meaningful figures and graphs. The insights gained from the data analysis serve as a reference that enables stakeholders and decision-makers to make informed decisions regarding the use and development of AI in a way that benefits mankind.

The AI Index also provides relevant researchers and practitioners with a trackable and quantifiable key performance indicator (KPI) that can be referenced in future studies and points to the trends of AI investments. That is why the index is credible and reliable for active stakeholders and practitioners in the study or development of AI.

This year’s AI Index, released in 2022, sheds light on major developments in the AI industry between 2020 and 2021, and the findings are truly remarkable. They include a variety of themes and focuses on somewhat controversial, yet important subjects, covering both the theoretical and practical aspects of AI and its effects on different sectors like education, governance, policymaking, and economy.

It is worth mentioning that this year’s findings are still being debated and are expected to be the subject of further study in the coming years. AI technologies are witnessing a golden era and are trending in global markets. There is, however, a gap between the risks for companies of using AI technologies, and the attempts to mitigate the risks for the sake of the benefit of humanity.

The AI report shows several major developments in the field based on data collected by primary research. Below is a brief summary of the findings per sector.

The development of master language models and multimedia applications accelerated as a result of superior technical criteria. Despite the major developments in AI, ethical concerns continued to arise as some texts generated by the models were classified as “toxic” or biased when it came to social, economic, and racial backgrounds.

Liz Rykert, President at Meta Strategies, a consultancy that works with technology and complex organizational change, noted that “The key for networked AI will be the ability to diffuse equitable responses to basic care and data collection. If bias remains in the programming it will be a big problem. I believe we will be able to develop systems that will learn from and reflect a much broader and more diverse population than the systems we have now.”

The efforts to deal with such ethical concerns were not sufficient as mentioned in the report findings. There are major labs and AI companies that claim that they have progressed towards eliminating relevant ethical concerns like OpenAI and others. Nonetheless, the AI Index 2022 report findings indicate that there is still a long way to go when it comes to dealing with the ethical concerns arising from the further development and use of AI technologies.

The economic dimension of AI

The 2022 AI Index report indicated that AI was substantially and directly integrated with economic activities. The impact of AI on economic performance has spread globally through research, publishing, and funding opportunities. There has been a major increase in the percentage of AI investments (which doubled in 2021 compared to 2020).

In 2020, there were only four funding rounds for AI-related projects. In 2021, however, there were 15 rounds of funding with an increased rate where the companies that specialize in data management, processing, and cloud services received the highest amount of funding followed by medical institutions and financial technology (fintech) companies.

The 2022 AI report also found a decrease in the average price of AI-based/robotic weapons, a drop-down of 46.2% in the past five years. This is mainly due to the ethical concerns surrounding AI-based weaponry as there are still not enough policies, laws, or clear guidelines that regulate the use of AI-integrated weapons.

The main concern arises from the ease of procuring AI-based weapons and using them in a way that endangers the people’s lives, especially societies’ marginalized sectors AI technologies have been shown to be biased, particularly against women and minority communities. False identifications disproportionately impact already marginalized and racialized groups.

The research dimension of AI

The United States of America and the Republic of China, alongside other countries, have exerted much effort in researching and publishing on AI-related topics. This, however, gives the U.S. and China an unfair advantage when it comes to dictating the trends and direction of AI-related research and practices, as both countries steer the research in a way that suits their policies and benefits their interests.

With the U.S. and China leading AI-related research, many developing countries are left behind as they lack the opportunity to participate in the policymaking and the setting of AI regulations. Instead, third-world countries are limited to the consumption of AI technologies, which contributes to creating negative stereotypes and biases against them.

The legal dimension of AI

The AI 2021 report uses the U.S. as an example for the increasing number of laws and policies that ought to regulate the practice and use of AI technologies. The U.S. law enforcement agencies and policymakers suggested 130 laws related to the use of AI in different fields, proposed to be passed in 2021. The year 2021 indeed witnessed a major focus on proposing laws and policies to regulate the use of AI-related technologies as compared to previous years—only one law was passed regarding the use of AI technologies in 2015.

Global security has the extraordinary characteristic that states, irrelevant of their strength, do not respond according to their capacity. Global escalations, which have contributed immensely to our knowledge base, have transformed what is “normal” for humans, society, and humanity in this sense. The term “normal” has, actually, become blurred since traditional, modern, and post-modern have become intertwined. We are experiencing a mixture of old and new conceptualized – or not – political phenomena enriched by emerging challenges. Such complex developments perplex all actors in international politics.

Scholarship has shaped our understanding of international and transnational security under the clout of natural disasters, societal mobility, pandemic diseases, climate change, or living standards. There is no unity and resilience in addressing these emerging risks among state actors, though awareness has been expanding among individuals, civil society, and the global public.

In this frame, international community actors are trying to put such concerns on the agenda. This requires resilience, collaborative engagements, and compliance with the prerequisites of what has to be committed to in order to respond to the dangers exposed. Unfortunately, the states’ commitments to keep security risks at a tolerable level are not the same as the ones by those affected by global security concerns.

A consensus was reached among state actors to take joint action against the well-circulated threats. Nevertheless, they ignore the issues which have an economic or political impact on the continuity of their sovereignty or their economic interests and territorial gains. For instance, global climate change has been a concern for most states, in parallel with the demand for action by individuals or societies. Developing states with vast populations, like India and China, refrain from complying with the Paris Conference decisions, while the U.S. stance is vulnerable to any governmental policy change.

In other words, individuals and communities press for a “change,” but states resist, while individuals and society themselves challenge the climate objectives by insisting on consumption habits. Like the climate challenge, protectionism of culture and identity have pushed individuals and communities to put pressure on the state. Cultural and identity protectionism have been equated to countering immigration and xenophobia.

Another case worth scrutinizing is the pandemic of the last two years. There has been a solid stance to fight COVID19 at all levels and units in international politics. But vaccine diplomacy, affiliated with the vaccine economy, diverted the firm stance to a competitive pattern whereby states compete which will profit the most from vaccine sales. The economic consequences of the pandemic, on the other hand, have boosted concerns of political security and, for some countries, regime continuity.

In other words, the pandemic could not prevent conflicts across the globe, like those in Syria and Libya, while its consequences can devastate the order of the international political system. It has shifted attention away from dedicated cooperation and the grants given by developed countries to less developed ones, and what remains is only symbolic commitments.

Global concerns, as manifested in the emerging “soft” threats and challenging situations described above, are not only about the experienced traumas in our lives but cover a broader spectrum. The newly emerging concerns can form a long list like digital currencies, space mining, cultural expansion, consumption habits, digital space, importing high-level human resources from developing countries. These new challenges will be on our agendas as humans and society feel their impact in their ordinary course of lives. Hence states or groups will be compelled to compete for more gain or enhance protectionism against the new interpretations of security.

Strategy-Making for Multilayered and Multilateral Security

The strategy-making of this era, with its obligation to address complicated structures and threats, requires flexible and critical thinking with intelligent technologies. Policymakers have to scan more dynamics, actors, and variables of all sorts with a heightened capacity for analysis and synthesis. As options increase for all brands of actors in the international realm, predictability becomes compelling. In other words, the probabilities of “misunderstanding” and “miscalculation,” which may spark any conflict, have become a risk for peace and stability.

What is more, the features of the contemporary era, which are integrating modernity and pre-modernity with new interpretations, require all international community actors to invent sui generis modus operandi for all courses of political, economic, military, or environmental actions. Today’s strategy-making has to address multilayered concerns regarding “unusual” situations in order to be prepared for the worst-case scenarios.

For all actors and against the backdrop of this new security environment, the strategy-making process needs to address the emerging structure of today’s politics. In this frame, actors prefer to use multilateralism as the new mood of the day. This term implies the existing superpower, namely the U.S., and the potential ones with long-term projections. Given the militarily inspired statements of French President Macron and the German quest to dominate the EU economically and diplomatically, Europe wants to be more independent. Russia is more concerned about re-establishing the former Soviet “sphere of influence.”

Finally, China is inclined to be a superpower to honor the 100^th anniversary of the PRC with a pledge to the teachings of Mao and Deng Xiaoping. On the other hand, the U.S. is committed to countering the emerging superpowers while building a check mechanism based on NATO and partners. One can, then, question whether multipolarity brings stability as achieved by the Cold War through mutually assured destruction or imposes a “Cold Peace” which sustains low-intensity conflicts with its emerging modus operandi. This picture of international politics expands the courses but strains the states’ options.

Regionalism’s Scattered Structure

Other than global politics, there is another level of complexity involving actors, dynamics, and events in the regional systems.  Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver’s regional security complex theory includes new, uncontrollable inputs whereby the classical balance of power or bandwagoning strategies are not fit for addressing modern concerns. For instance, the Gulf countries function beyond their traditional area of interest spanning across vast regions beyond the Persian Gulf, where they compete with one another, all made possible by their wealth.

“Glocalism” pushes these states to observe the concerns of their citizens due to the trauma of the Arab Spring (or Winter?) while making sure their regimes – not states – are seen as able to play this challenging role in order to retain credibility. On the other hand, external actors continue to search for security in rentier economies. Compared to the Gulf countries, the Middle East appeared to have more regional systems inside its multilayered regional system. On the other hand, regionalism in Central Asia, the Balkans, or the Caucasus is reminiscent of the Cold War era. As a result, regions have their sui generis characteristics. Nevertheless, regional complexities can bring back the traditional threat perceptions of the Cold War.

Transnational Interaction

States and the organizations of what the states make are short of covering the cobweb of individuals and communities. The strength of individuals vastly increased in the last two decades, thanks to communication technology and human mobility. The interaction among individuals of different communities has resulted in new communities of interest and groups that put pressure on international actors. States cannot control individuals, and have concerns about maintaining their existence and regime security. The fundamental challenge to the state regards the loyalty, sacrifice, and dedication of communities.

Hence, a self-organizing body of individuals and their collectivity exist with unique interests, concerns, and commitments. This picture compels states to take conservative measures for preserving the societal order within their borders while encouraging a change abroad through access to the digital world. Hence, transnationalism is a threat to the state, but inspired by the state for a controlled transformation in other actors.

After all the discussion on global and regional systems (and subsystems), the themes addressed denote changes in the structure of actors and engagements in the international system. Traditional responses are still valid, but the expansion and deepness of the sectors and units in international politics has entered a new phase. The essential features of this new phase are unsteadiness, intertwined dynamics, and the degradation of consequences. In this sense, international situations cannot be fixed to a particular course but rather need to be treated flexibly.